yoda

hmmm... from this morning's LWX AFD

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 409 AM EST Tue Dec 15 2020 MDZ504-VAZ036>039-050>053-502-152145- /O.CON.KLWX.WS.A.0002.201216T1200Z-201217T0900Z/ Central and Southeast Montgomery-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison- Orange-Culpeper-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Southern Fauquier- 409 AM EST Tue Dec 15 2020 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 7 inches and ice accumulations of around two tenths of an inch possible. * WHERE...Portions of central Maryland and central, northern and northwest Virginia. * WHEN...From Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night. Snow will overspread the region Wednesday morning, mix with sleet and freezing rain during the afternoon and evening, then change back to snow before ending late Wednesday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Potential impacts include significant travel delays and closures. Plan ahead to minimize impact on you and your family.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 409 AM EST Tue Dec 15 2020 MDZ008-011-503-505-506-508-VAZ506-152145- /O.CON.KLWX.WS.A.0002.201216T1200Z-201217T0900Z/ Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard- Central and Southeast Howard-Southeast Harford-Eastern Loudoun- 409 AM EST Tue Dec 15 2020 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an inch possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Portions of central, northeast and northern Maryland and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night. Snow will overspread the region Wednesday morning, mix with sleet and freezing rain during the afternoon and evening, then change back to snow before ending late Wednesday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Potential impacts include significant travel delays and closures. Plan ahead to minimize impact on you and your family.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 409 AM EST Tue Dec 15 2020 MDZ001-VAZ026-027-029-040-501-505-507-WVZ501-502-505-506-152145- /O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0002.201216T1200Z-201217T0900Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0003.201216T1200Z-201217T0900Z/ Garrett-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Page-Rappahannock-Northern Fauquier- Western Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Western Grant- Eastern Grant-Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- 409 AM EST Tue Dec 15 2020 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 12 inches. * WHERE...Portions of western Maryland, northern and western Virginia and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From 7 AM Wednesday to 4 AM EST Thursday. Snow will overspread the region Wednesday morning, become heavy at times during the afternoon and evening, taper off late Wednesday night. * IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult to impossible. Potential impacts include significant travel delays and closures. Plan ahead to minimize impact on you and your family.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 409 AM EST Tue Dec 15 2020 MDZ003>006-501-502-507-VAZ028-030-031-WVZ050>053-055-503-504- 152145- /O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0002.201216T1200Z-201217T0900Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0003.201216T1200Z-201217T0900Z/ Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany- Northwest Harford-Frederick VA-Warren-Clarke-Hampshire-Morgan- Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral- 409 AM EST Tue Dec 15 2020 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 12 to 18 inches. * WHERE...Portions of northern and western Maryland, northwest Virginia and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From 7 AM Wednesday to 4 AM EST Thursday. Snow will overspread the region Wednesday morning, become heavy at times during the afternoon and evening, taper off late Wednesday night. * IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult to impossible. Potential impacts include significant travel delays and closures. Plan ahead to minimize impact on you and your family.

From @griteater

They are 6 hour time period maps... not total event snowfall maps

Updated portion of the LWX AFD after the watches issued

06z GFS says it's still lightly snowing at 12z THUR in N VA into MD

06z RGEM... good move SE with the snow accums compared to 00z

@psuhoffman @MillvilleWx I'd take the 06z RGEM and run

LWX morning disco... mentions FZRA and IP as well

RLX just put up WSWatches for their eastern counties

Even the SNE mets were tossing it lol

I'd take 3 to 6 after last winter... your map looks good... though I'm closer to the 6 inch line after moving lol

Thank you @MillvilleWx for taking the time for that outstanding post

Looks like the HP is slightly further west at 48 on 00z... yes?

CCB is noice on the 00z CMC at 72... mauling everyone I95 and west

If thats where it was at 84 then yes I believe so

00z GGEM at 72 has 1039mb HP in Quebec with 1003mb SLP offshore Ocean City

The entire column is below zero till last 50 meters... will be fine IMO. But we'll just have to wait and see and agree to disagree

Still lightly snowing at DCA at 81 looks like

Did we check the soil temperatures?

1038mb HP at 60... -SN breaking out in SW VA... ice in W and C NC

1036mb HP in Quebec at 54