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BULLETIN Hurricane Eta Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 AM EST Tue Nov 03 2020 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE ETA VERY NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 83.1W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES

wow

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 100 AM EST Mon Nov 02 2020 ...ETA NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 80.4W ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM ENE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES

It begins URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 229 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2020 WVZ501-505-012045- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0010.201101T2100Z-201102T1200Z/ Western Grant-Western Pendleton- 229 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Western Grant and Western Pendleton Counties. * WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury.

Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 AM EST Sun Nov 01 2020 Eta has not become appreciably better organized over the past few hours. A large convective band is evident well to the east and northeast of the estimated center, but this band does not have much curvature at this time. A small burst of deep convection is occurring near or over the center, which is likely the early stages of the development of a Central Dense Overcast. Currently, there is a significant amount of lightning in the outer band but little lightning near the center. The intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory, in agreement with Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Eta will be moving over very warm waters of SSTs above 29 deg C and in an environment of fairly light vertical shear. Therefore, strengthening is likely. The official forecast, like the previous ones, calls for the cyclone to become a hurricane before approaching Central America. There is also a possibility of rapid strengthening, as suggested by the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index. The NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the latest corrected consensus prediction up to the expected landfall and follows the Decay-SHIPS guidance after that point. The center location is somewhat uncertain, and my best estimate of initial motion is about the same as before, or 275/13 kt. The track forecast reasoning has not changed significantly. A mid-level ridge to the north and northwest of Eta should cause a westward or west-southwestward motion for the next few days. This would take the cyclone inland over Central America in 72 hours or so. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one, and lies near the simple model consensus and a little north of the corrected consensus. Key Messages: 1. Eta is expected to strengthen to a hurricane early next week as it approaches the coast of Central America early Tuesday, and there is a risk of storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall for portions of Nicaragua and Honduras, where Hurricane Watches have been issued. Hurricane warnings could be needed for portions of those areas later today. 2. Through Thursday afternoon, heavy rainfall from Eta may lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain across portions of Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, the southern coast of Hispaniola, northern Honduras and northern Nicaragua. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 15.2N 75.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 15.3N 77.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 15.3N 79.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 15.1N 81.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 14.7N 82.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 03/1800Z 14.4N 83.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 14.2N 83.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 96H 05/0600Z 14.3N 85.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 06/0600Z 15.0N 87.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch

Not much change this morning BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 AM EST Sun Nov 01 2020 ...ETA CONTINUES WESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 75.7W ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB

Pretty cool to see LWX do this Public Information Statement...AMENDED National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1122 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020 ...GROWING SEASON ENDED FOR THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND... Freezing temperatures were observed Saturday morning October 31st, 2020 across much of the Shenandoah Valley, as well as portions of northern Virginia and north central Maryland. Therefore, the growing season has ended in the following counties, and frost and freeze headlines will not be issued until Spring 2021. NEWLY ENDED Saturday, October 31: In Maryland... Carroll Frederick Western Howard Western Montgomery Northern Baltimore (added after further review at 11 PM update) In West Virginia... Jefferson. In Virginia... Augusta Central and Northern Virginia Blue Ridge Clarke Eastern and Western Loudoun Northern Fauquier Rockingham Page Rappahannock Warren Southern Fauquier (added after further review at 11 PM update) Culpeper (added after further review at 11 PM update) Nelson (added after further review at 11 PM update) PREVIOUSLY ENDED: In Maryland... Eastern and Western Allegany Washington. In West Virginia... Berkeley Eastern and Western Mineral Eastern and Western Grant Eastern and Western Pendleton Hampshire Hardy Morgan. In Virginia... Eastern and Western Highland County Frederick Shenandoah.

Sounds like ERC is coming soon per disco -- https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html WDPN31 PGTW 310300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 22W (GONI) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUPER TYPHOON 22W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 454 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A COMPACT, POWERFUL SYSTEM WITH A WELL DEFINED 7 NM EYE. WHILE STILL COMPACT IN NATURE IT HAS INCREASED IN SIZE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE WELL DEFINED EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 160 KTS IS FURTHER PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T7.5 (155 KTS, PGTW AND RJTD) BASED ON RECENT ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T7.6 (158 KTS). ANALYSIS OF THE EYE WALL STRUCTURES IN SEVERAL MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGESTS THAT AN EYE WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) IS IMMINENT. DESPITE THIS, THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, CLOUD TOP AND EYE TEMPERATURES ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A WEAKENING PHASE, TYPICAL OF ERC, HAS NOT YET COMMENCED. STY GONI HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN CHINA AND THROUGH AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY WARM (30 DEG CELSIUS) WATERS, LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VWS AND ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW. POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS ESPECIALLY STRONG. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. STY GONI WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN OVERALL FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THIS TIME DUE TO THE ERC AND, DECREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING REPOSITIONING OF THE STEERING RIDGE, AND A SMALL INCREASE IN VWS (15-20 KTS). STY GONI WILL THEN MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF LUZON, EAST OF MANILA, BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36 AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE. AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS ACROSS LUZON AND INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, IT WILL FURTHER WEAKEN DUE TO TERRAIN INTERACTION TO AN INTENSITY OF 75 KTS BY TAU 48. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72, IT WILL STEADILY WEAKEN TO AN INTENSITY OF 60 KTS DUE TO CONTINUED MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VWS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS INITIAL PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WITH A TOTAL SPREAD IN ACROSS TRACK MODEL SOLUTIONS OF 150 NM AT TAU 72. SPECIFICALLY THE NAVGEM TRACK LIES NORTHWARD OF THE OTHER JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS MEMBERS. AS SUCH, THIS INITIAL PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE. C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYER STR POSITIONED TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST, AND MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL VIETNAM COAST BETWEEN TAU 96 AND TAU 120. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE VWS AND CONTINUED ENTRAINMENT OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED SINCE THE LAST FORECAST WITH ONLY NAVGEM PREDICTING A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS HAINAN. THE REMAINING MEMBERS OF THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AGREE WITH A WESTWARD TRACK DURING THIS TIME. AS SUCH THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS PLACED SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE TO OFFSET THE NORTHWESTWARD BIAS CONTRIBUTED BY THE NAVGEM TRACK.// NNNN

I'm gathering this wont be a US threat but more of a Central American threat

LWX AFD mentions 30s and 40s for highs on Monday with poss advisory criteria winds... so it going to be a chilly day

looks like Monday night (Nov 2) could be the night for non-DCA points per this morning's LWX disco if they don't reach it Friday night

Rain through next 72 hours: 00z 12km NAM: 2-3" 00z 3km NAM: 1.5-2.5" 00z GFS: 2-4" 00z GGEM: 1-3" 00z ICON: 1.5-3.5" 00z UKMET: 2-4" 00z EURO: 1.5-3"

00z GGEM still likes 31 degrees at DCA and 29 at BWI 12z Saturday morning... 00z GFS/00z UKIE both say no though with upper 30s as lows ETA: 00z RGEM at its final frame at 12z SAT has DCA at 32 and BWI at 30

@WxWatcher007 TROPICAL STORM ZETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020 0300 UTC WED OCT 28 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 40(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ATLANTIC CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 35(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) BALTIMORE MD 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BALTIMORE MD 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 42(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) DOVER DE 50 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) DOVER DE 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 40(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) ANNAPOLIS MD 50 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ANNAPOLIS MD 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) 39(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) WASHINGTON DC 50 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) WASHINGTON DC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 49(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) 28(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) CAPE HENLOPEN 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 49(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) 27(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 48(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) PAX RIVER NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 23(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) PAX RIVER NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 47(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 25(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) 38(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) CHARLOTTESVIL 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 48(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 22(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) RICHMOND VA 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

Hmmmmm

some of the ice accumulation totals from this afternoon and still ongoing are crazy out in OK out of OUN: PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 347 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2020 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0346 PM ICE STORM THOMAS 35.75N 98.75W 10/27/2020 CUSTER OK BROADCAST MEDIA 0.6 INCHES WEST OF THOMAS. TWITTER REPORT WITH PICTURE - MEASURED. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 425 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2020 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0400 PM ICE STORM 3 SE NICHOLS HILLS 35.52N 97.50W 10/27/2020 OKLAHOMA OK PUBLIC ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 1/2 INCH. ALSO, EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 428 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2020 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0400 PM ICE STORM 4 SSE GEARY 35.57N 98.29W 10/27/2020 CANADIAN OK STORM CHASER RADIAL ICE ACCUMULATION OF APPROXIMATELY 0.8 INCHES. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 258 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2020 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0257 PM ICE STORM 8 W EL RENO 35.53N 98.10W 10/27/2020 CANADIAN OK PUBLIC 0.8 INCHES OF ACCUMULATED ICE ON TREE BRANCHES. TWITTER REPORT WITH PICTURE - MEASURED.

lol Ravens sign Bryant to their practice squad... he'll be up playing soon https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/30202690/source-baltimore-ravens-signing-dez-bryant-practice-squad

Hmmm... 11pm update FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 20.2N 87.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 21.3N 88.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 24H 28/0000Z 23.1N 90.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 28/1200Z 25.6N 91.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 29.1N 90.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 29/1200Z 33.8N 85.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 30/0000Z 38.5N 76.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

Big ice storm in OK/TX... some places have over 0.3" of ice and another 0.2"-0.4" expected

WSW's are up in Oklahoma and Texas for ice... up to 0.4" of ice is possible... in late October

Looks like Zeta will be nearby on Thursday evening per the 11pm map tonight

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Zeta Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 500 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020 ...ZETA MEANDERING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 83.5W ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

SNE forum should have some ideas for you... post there and you should get some good responses to your requests

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 23 2020 Convection in Epsilon's southeastern quadrant has faded during the past several hours, including the outer eyewall that was previously nearly closed. The hurricane's cloud shield has consequently taken on a very asymmetric shape. Satellite intensity estimates from all agencies have decreased since this afternoon, so the intensity is lowered slightly to 70 kt. It is worth noting that regardless of the peak winds, recent ASCAT data indicate that the wind field of the hurricane has expanded. Epsilon is now moving over a relatively warm eddy in the Gulf Stream and this may prevent the hurricane's structure from substantially decaying further for another 12 to 24 hours. In fact, some models still indicate that Epsilon could briefly regain some strength tomorrow morning. By tomorrow evening the hurricane should begin moving over cooler waters, and extratropical (ET) transition will likely begin in earnest. The cyclone will still likely be at or near hurricane strength when the ET process is completed in around 48 h. Perhaps more importantly, Epsilon will continue to produce a large area of gale- and storm-force winds even after it becomes post-tropical. Epsilon is then forecast to merge with another large non-tropical low early next week, and the resulting low pressure system could produce hazardous conditions over portions of far North Atlantic for several more days thereafter. Almost no change was made to the NHC track forecast. Epsilon is expected to turn northeastward and accelerate in that direction over the course of the next couple of days ahead of a deep-layer mid-latitude trough approaching from the west. The models are in excellent agreement for a recurving cyclone. While there is always some uncertainty in the forward speed of such cases, confidence in the NHC forecast is relatively high. The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts are all near the various multi-model consensus aids (TVCN, IVCN, and RVCN). FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 36.5N 62.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 38.1N 61.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 40.4N 57.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 43.6N 50.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 47.4N 40.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 26/1200Z 51.7N 29.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

BULLETIN Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 23 2020 ...LARGE EPSILON CONTINUES TO CHURN UP THE NORTH ATLANTIC... ...HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.5N 62.1W ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM NNE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES