yoda

@MillvilleWx would probably be better able to explain, but I believe so yes. Looking at the 6 hour snowfall amounts, 06z GFS is printing out 2" per hour rates (and higher in some spots) due to the extreme frontogenisis. I think this is causing the algorithm to show mix instead of the very heavy snow.

Rates are silly in the CCB at 96...

06z GFS is a mauling for i95 corridor and west

lol 0.2 at DCA... nice try

great disco from LWX this morning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 352 AM EST Sun Dec 13 2020 VAZ503-WVZ501-505-131700- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0001.201214T0300Z-201214T1800Z/ Western Highland-Western Grant-Western Pendleton- 352 AM EST Sun Dec 13 2020 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 inches or greater are possible. * WHERE...In Virginia, Western Highland County. In West Virginia, Western Grant and Western Pendleton Counties. * WHEN...From late this evening through early Monday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The highest snow totals are expected on the ridges above 3000 feet elevation.

We may have to wait till Monday IMO when the h5 pieces/SLP for the Monday "event" finally moves into the NE/Canadian Maritimes before we get a better idea of where the players for our snow will be on Wednesday. As griteater pointed out... the 50/50 low positioning seems to be crucial to us down here. ETA: seems like you ninja'd me above... my bad

guess we'll see in about an hour whether or not the EPS backs up the OP or is a bit further east and leaves the OP on an island by itself

Euro isnt good

UKIE 6-12 for most i95 and west... @mappy jackpot (north central MD into NE MD 12"+)

Pivotal Weather will have it in the next 10 minutes... already out to 36

His 18z ensembles were nice for us... I expect him to show some forgiveness at 00z

h5 actually is almost closed off at 102

DC is pouring snow at 96

1007mb SLP SW of OBX at 90

84 snow breaking out in SW VA frozen all the way down into upstate SC as well

Confluence looks a tad stronger on h5 at 60 on 00z GFS comparing it to 18z 54 at h5

Am wondering as well as to whether rates will overcome the column in parts of the area where a "mix" would be possible. Like if the column gets close to being isothermal or even close to 0.5C at the 850/925 level... if rates were let's say an inch an hour... I could see snow being the predominant PTYPE

not much really even though h5 looks intriguing... looks like just a follow up wave... PW has it all offshore as rain. No real cold air in sight at 240 anyway

Quick overview of the 50 00z EPS members... About 38 members have around 2" or more of snow at DCA About 26 members have around 6" or more of snow at DCA About 20 members have around 10" or more of snow at DCA

I would say that was part of it... usually for monster DCA hits... we want to see that SLP near OBX or a lil east of there. Tonight's EURO has it just inland of ORF. Get that east by like 50 miles and we all enjoy good amounts of snow

I'm fine with the 00z EURO run. yeah, doesn't look like the CMC/GFS maps... but I am sure the EPS has a good amount of monster hits. The storm is there... and 50-75 miles is all we need as @Yeoman said above for all to cash in