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BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AS ETA INTENSIFIES FURTHER... SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 84.1W ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the west coast of Florida from Anna Maria Island to Yankeetown. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Anna Maria Island to Yankeetown A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Bonita Beach to Suwannee River Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Bonita Beach to Steinhatchee River Florida, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth * North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida

Looks like Honduras/Nicaragua are going to be under the gun this weekend again from tropical activity Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Eta, located over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and on newly formed Subtropical Storm Theta, located over the eastern Atlantic. 1. A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This wave is expected to move westward into more conducive environmental conditions, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend when the wave reaches the central or western Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Subtropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 AM GMT Tue Nov 10 2020 Theta has generally changed little during the past several hours. The cyclone has some characteristics of a tropical cyclone, including a central dense overcast and a relatively small radius of maximum wind. However, the storm is still entangled with an upper-level trough, and based on all of these factors, Theta is being maintained as a subtropical storm. The initial wind speed remains 45 kt, which is at the high end of the satellite intensity estimates. The storm is moving due eastward at about 10 kt. The track forecast reasoning seems fairly straightforward. A trough to the north of the subtropical storm is expected to lift out, and Theta should be steered eastward to east-northeastward during the next several days on the north side of a mid-level ridge. This motion should take the cyclone across the subtropical eastern Atlantic throughout the forecast period. The models are in fairly good agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near the various consensus aids. Theta should transition to a tropical storm later today as it separates from the upper-level trough. Little change in intensity is expected during the next several days due to mixed environmental conditions. Although Theta will be tracking over progressively cooler SSTs and within moderate wind shear conditions, the air mass is expected to remain unstable, which should be supportive of deep convection. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and lies near the high end of the model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 28.8N 39.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 28.9N 37.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 29.2N 35.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 29.7N 33.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 30.4N 31.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 12/1800Z 31.0N 29.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 31.4N 26.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 14/0600Z 32.2N 22.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 15/0600Z 33.1N 19.9W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Theta Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 AM GMT Tue Nov 10 2020 ...THETA EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.8N 39.5W ABOUT 960 MI...1545 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 300 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 There hasn't been a lot of change to the cloud pattern of Eta overnight, with the center apparently located on the northwestern side of a small central dense overcast. Scatterometer data from earlier indicated 35-40 kt winds, and with the typical undersampling from that instrument, along with consensus 45-kt estimates from TAFB/SAB, so Eta's initial wind speed is kept at 45 kt. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft should be in the storm this morning. Eta is forecast to be in a low-to-moderate shear environment over warm SSTs for the next couple of days. Gradual strengthening is expected through early Thursday, with the main restrictive factor being nearby dry air. After that time, increasing shear and drier mid-level air are likely to cause Eta to weaken. The rate of this weakening is pretty uncertain, and a lot depends on how much Eta can re-intensify over the next couple of days. The new forecast is similar to the previous one, which is quite close to the consensus guidance. The storm has basically become stationary overnight. Eta should drift to north today due to steering flow changes with a nearby upper-level low losing influence while ridging east of Florida builds southward. A slow northward track is then anticipated for a couple of days over the east-central Gulf of Mexico in this flow pattern. Beyond that time, model guidance is in rather poor agreement, ranging from a stronger system moving faster to the northeast due to broad troughing over the south-central United States, to a weaker tropical cyclone getting caught under a narrow ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and turning west-southwestward. Since the new forecast expects Eta to be weakening, the NHC forecast will be west of the consensus and west of the previous track. I have little confidence in the long-range track forecast due to its seeming dependence on the intensity, and the wide spread in the guidance. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across western Cuba and South Florida today and tonight. Additional flash and urban flooding, especially across previously inundated areas, will be possible in South Florida. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for western Cuba. 2. Eta could approach the Florida Gulf Coast later this week as a tropical storm, and possibly bring impacts from rain, wind, and storm surge. Interests in this area should continue to monitor the progress of Eta and updates to the forecast this week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 22.9N 85.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 23.1N 85.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 24.0N 85.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 25.0N 85.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 26.0N 85.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 12/1800Z 26.8N 85.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 27.3N 85.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 14/0600Z 28.8N 86.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 15/0600Z 30.0N 87.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

Still 50mph at 4am... but this time its stationary in movement BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 300 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 ...ETA LINGERING JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL... ...RISK OF FLOODING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.9N 85.5W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM NNW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES

You mean 15% wind and 5% tor... SLGT risk

BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Theta Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 300 AM GMT Tue Nov 10 2020 ...SUBTROPICAL STORM FORMS OVER THE OPEN NORTHEAST ATLANTIC... ...RECORD-BREAKING 29TH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON... SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.8N 40.3W ABOUT 995 MI...1600 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Theta was located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 40.3 West. The storm is moving toward the east near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a general east-northeast motion is expected to continue during the next two to three days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next 12 to 24 hours followed by little change in strength through Thursday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Brown

Subtropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 300 AM GMT Tue Nov 10 2020 Over the past 12 h convection has slowly consolidated near the center of a non-tropical area of low pressure over the far northeast Atlantic. Earlier, there was a 2325 UTC ASCAT-B pass that showed that the low-level circulation had become more detached from the warm frontal boundary located to its northeast. In addition, the ASCAT pass showed that winds have increased to near 45 kt on the southeast portion of the circulation near where coldest convective cloud tops were located. Both a 2137 UTC SSMIS and 2324 UTC AMSU microwave pass showed convective banding under the cirrus canopy near where the highest winds were observed. However, water vapor satellite imagery still shows the presence of a broad upper-level low tangled up with the low-level circulation embedded in the convection. Therefore, Theta has been designated as a subtropical storm with maximum wind of 45 kt. Theta has been on a near due east heading over the last 12 h at 90/13 kt. Currently the cyclone is located south of a broad deep-layer longwave trough. This trough is expected to bypass the cyclone to the east and Theta will primarily be steered by southwesterly flow on the northern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the Cape Verde islands. This flow will steer Theta slowly to the east-northeast over the next 3-5 days. The track guidance is in good agreement with this solution, with only minor differences in across-track spread. There are somewhat larger differences in the along-track spread related to different forward motion, but the latest NHC track forecast elected to stay close to the track consensus at this time. Thetas structure has evolved from a frontal cyclone to a subtropical cyclone, though a frontal boundary remains nearby on the northeast side of the circulation. This boundary is expected to gradually dissipate and Theta is expected to fully transition to a tropical storm in 24 h as convection erodes the upper-level cyclonic flow overhead. The maximum sustained winds were increased slightly in the first 12 h of the forecast but are kept at 50 kt through 120 h which is on the high end of the intensity guidance. Theta is the 29th named storm in the record-breaking 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season, breaking the previous record of 28th named storms in 2005. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 28.8N 40.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM 12H 10/1200Z 29.0N 38.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM 24H 11/0000Z 29.1N 36.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 36H 11/1200Z 29.5N 34.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 30.0N 32.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 12/1200Z 30.5N 30.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 31.0N 28.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 14/0000Z 32.2N 24.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 15/0000Z 33.3N 20.6W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin/Brown

STS Theta it is at 10

Doesn't look like much chance or time for Eta to become a hurricane again Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 900 PM CST Mon Nov 09 2020 Eta's convective structure appears to be gradually becoming better organized this evening. The center is located near the northern edge of a band that wraps around the southeastern and southern portions of the circulation. Recent subjective Dvorak data T-numbers were 3.0, which still support an initial intensity of 45 kt. With Eta's structure gradually improving and a forecast for the cyclone to remain over SSTs of around 28C and in generally low vertical wind shear conditions, some re-strengthening is likely during the next 24-36 hours. Although the NHC intensity forecast shows Eta remaining just below hurricane strength, there is a possibility that the storm will briefly regain hurricane status over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico within the next day or so. By 48 hours, when the cyclone moves over the east-central Gulf of Mexico, increasing vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air are likely to result in weakening, and like the previous forecast, the new NHC forecast indicates that Eta could weaken to a tropical depression by the end of the period. Some of the global model guidance suggests that Eta could weaken even faster than indicated below after 72 hours. Recent satellite fixes indicate that Eta is moving southwestward but a little slower than before at around 8 kt. Eta should slow its forward progress overnight and then meander over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday as steering current collapse. In 36-48 hours, Eta should begin moving northward between a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and a broad trough over the central United States. After 72 hours, the spread in the guidance increases when Eta is expected to be weaker and be steered by the low-level flow. Most of the guidance shows a northwestward to northward motion at that time period but have varying forward speed. The NHC track shows a slow north-northwest motion late in the period to account for these differences. There is lower than normal confidence in the latter portion of the track forecast given the large spread in the guidance. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and southern Florida and spread north into central Florida. Additional flash and urban flooding, especially across previously inundated areas, will be possible in South Florida tonight. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for Cuba, the Bahamas and the remainder of southern Florida over the next several days. 2. Eta could approach the Florida Gulf Coast later this week as a tropical storm, and possibly bring impacts from rain, wind, and storm surge. Interests in this area should continue to monitor the progress of Eta and updates to the forecast this week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 23.2N 85.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 22.8N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 23.4N 85.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 24.6N 85.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 25.8N 85.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 12/1200Z 26.6N 85.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 27.0N 85.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 14/0000Z 27.7N 85.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 15/0000Z 29.0N 86.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

Still 50mph at 10

Sounds fun... LWX AFD for Wed to Fri

So... 2 more upcoming? One in the Eastern Caribbean and another out in the NE Atlantic toward the Azores? Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Eta, located near Florida Bay. Shower activity associated with a non-tropical low pressure system located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores is showing some signs of organization. This system will likely gradually acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics this week, and a tropical or subtropical storm could develop within a few days while this system moves eastward or east-northeastward over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medum...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. A tropical wave is forecast to move over the central Caribbean Sea, where an area of low pressure could form in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves slowly westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. && Additional information on the central Atlanic low pressure area can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC. $$ Forecaster Blake

Tropical Storm Eta Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1100 PM EST Sun Nov 08 2020 ...ETA MAKES LANDFALL IN LOWER MATECUMBE KEY FLORIDA... Doppler radar data indicate that Eta has made landfall on Lower Matecumbe Key in the Florida Keys as a strong tropical storm with maximum winds estimated to be near 65 mph (100 km/h). A WeatherFlow station at Carysfort Reef Light in the Florida Keys recently reported a sustained wind of 52 mph (84 km/h) with a gust of 63 mph (101 km/h). Another Weatherflow station in Key Largo recently reported a wind gust of 53 mph (85 km/h). A wind gust of 47 mph (76 km/h) was measured at Homestead Air Force Base in Homestead, Florida. SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EST...0400 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.9N 80.7W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ENE OF MARATHON FLORIDA ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM ENE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Blake

Last chance saloon on Wednesday for this years severe? From this morning's AFD:

New track is south of mainland FL and barely gets into the Keys

Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 300 PM CST Fri Nov 06 2020 Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the center of Eta is elongated east-to-west with multiple vorticity centers present. The central pressure is near 1002 mb, and the maximum flight-level winds were 30-35 kt at 1500 ft. There were a few spot reports of 35-45 kt winds from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer, but these were in areas of heavy rain and their reliability is suspect. Based on these data, the initial intensity is kept at 30 kt. The aircraft data shows that the center is farther south than previously thought, and the initial motion is an uncertain 040/6 kt. There is no change to the previous track forecast philosophy. A developing mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico is expected to steer Eta northeastward for the next 48 h or so with an increase in forward speed. Between 48-72 h, the trough is forecast to become a closed low near south Florida and western Cuba, causing Eta to turn northwestward around and into the low. After 72 h, the merged system is likely to move slowly westward to northwestward. While the guidance is in good agreement on the synoptic evolution, there remain differences in the track forecast details in terms of both the heading and the forward speed, with the GFS-based guidance tending to be to the east and north of the UKMET/ECMWF/Canadian. In addition, the HWRF/HMON/Canadian are faster than the other guidance. The new forecast track overall is a little slower than the previous track, and due to the initial position the first 36 h have been shifted southward. Eta will move over the warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean during the next 48 h or so, and the upper-level divergence is forecast to be quite strong. This should allow some strengthening, although this is likely to be slowed by 20-30 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear. The intensity forecast for this part of the cyclone's life is again similar to the previous forecast and lies near the bulk of the intensity guidance. Between 48-72 h , Eta may take on at least some subtropical cyclone characteristics as it merges with the mid- to upper-level low. The HWRF and HMON models still suggest the possibility that a tight inner wind core may develop, however, the guidance has trended weaker since this morning, and the new intensity forecast is above the bulk of the guidance. After 72 h, dry air entrainment is expected to cause the cyclone to weaken. The wind field of Eta is expected to increase in size during the next few days, and the cyclone will likely produce a large area of tropical-storm-force winds on its north side when it is near Cuba, the Florida Keys, and southern Florida. The new forecast track requires a Tropical Storm Warning for portions of Cuba at this time. Watches may be required for portions of south Florida and the Florida Keys tonight. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall is diminishing across portions of Central America, although the threat of life-threatening flooding may continue, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Heavy rainfall from Eta will move into the Cayman islands and portions of Cuba, resulting in significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding. Flash flooding and urban flooding is also possible for Jamaica and southeast Mexico. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected this weekend in portions of the Cayman Islands and Cuba, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 3. There is an increasing risk of impacts from wind and flash and urban flooding due to heavy rainfall in portions of southern Florida, the Florida Keys, and portions of the Bahamas this weekend and early next week. Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for a portion of this area tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 17.3N 86.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 18.2N 84.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 19.4N 82.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 20.8N 80.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 22.5N 80.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 60H 09/0600Z 24.2N 80.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 09/1800Z 24.9N 81.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 25.0N 84.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 26.5N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eta Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 300 PM CST Fri Nov 06 2020 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THE CENTER OF ETA FARTHER TO THE SOUTH... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 86.5W ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM E OF BELIZE CITY ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cayman Islands * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa y Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings for heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor the depression. Interests elsewhere in Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, the Florida Keys, and southern Florida should monitor the progress of this system as Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches could be required for some of these areas tonight or on Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 300 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2020 Eta has become very disorganized due to its interaction with the land mass of Central America, and may no longer have a surface circulation. Based on a few surface observations, the maximum winds are estimated to be around 25 kt over the water to the north of Honduras. Eta is likely to degenerate into a post-tropical low very soon, if it hasn't done so already. Since the low is predicted to move into the northwestern Caribbean Sea by tomorrow night, some restrengthening is forecast to begin by the weekend. However the expected broad nature of the cyclone and stronger vertical shear are likely to limit strengthening over the next several days. The official intensity forecast is similar to the latest model consensus. The center is extremely difficult to locate at this time, but based on continuity the initial motion is estimated to be 300/7 kt. Eta, or its post-tropical remnant low/trough, should continue to move over land today, and then turn northward tonight while moving along the eastern side of a broader gyre. This will take the system into the Gulf of Honduras and over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday. A negatively-tilted 500-mb trough/low developing over the Gulf of Mexico should induce a generally northeastward motion for the next 2-3 days and take the cyclone across portions of Cuba in 3-4 days. Thereafter, the system is forecast to rotate cyclonically around the eastern side of the 500 mb low and turn northwestward to westward by the end of the forecast period. The official forecast is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF predictions, but leans toward the latter model. This track could take the system near or over portions of extreme southern Florida by late this weekend or early next week, but there is low confidence in the forecast, especially at 3-5 days. Key Messages: 1. Through Monday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. 2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength over the northwestern Caribbean Sea late this week. Although the details of the future track and intensity of Eta are uncertain, there is an increasing risk of impacts from wind and rainfall in portions of Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys this weekend and early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 14.5N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 15.0N 87.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/0600Z 16.2N 87.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/1800Z 17.4N 86.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 48H 07/0600Z 18.5N 84.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 07/1800Z 19.6N 82.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 21.0N 81.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 23.5N 79.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 10/0600Z 24.5N 81.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

Question -- if the LLC circulation gets disrupted by Central America, but the MLC returns over the waters, will it still be Eta? or a new TC entirely?

Question -- if a freeze warning was issued, doesn't that usually mean that the "growing season" is officially over for that county? Like I know there was a freeze warning for PW few days ago and they have a frost advisory tonight... just think it's a bit strange

Hurricane Eta Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 AM EST Tue Nov 03 2020 Eta remains an extremely well-organized hurricane with a distinct eye embedded within cloud tops colder than -80C. Based on continuity from the earlier Hurricane Hunter observations and Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, the current intensity estimate remains 130 kt. Images from the San Andres radar show at least one concentric eyewall, and this structure has likely stopped the rapid deepening process. Nonetheless, Eta is an extremely severe hurricane, capable of causing very high storm surges and catastrophic damage. After the center moves inland later today, rapid weakening is likely while the circulation interacts with land. The official forecast is similar to the Decay-SHIPS guidance, and shows the cyclone weakening to a depression by tomorrow. It is not certain that the surface circulation will survive after moving over Central America for the next 3 days or so. The official forecast shows the system, perhaps at first the upper-level remnant of Eta, emerging over the northwestern Caribbean Sea in the latter part of the forecast period. It should be noted that both the intensity and track at 4-5 days are highly uncertain at this time. The hurricane has slowed down and is now moving a little south of west or about 250/4 kt. This motion will take the center across the coast in the Hurricane Warning area very soon. A weak ridge to the north of Eta should cause the cyclone to move west to west-northwest, over Central America, during the next few days. By 96-120 hours, a trough developing over the Gulf of Mexico should cause the system to turn northward and northeastward but, as noted earlier, this future track is quite uncertain. Since Eta is likely to be a very slow-moving system after it makes landfall in Central America, torrential rains and inland flooding will be an extremely serious threat over the next few days. Key Messages: 1. Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall moves onshore along the northeastern coast of Nicaragua this morning. Tropical-storm-force or greater winds are already occuring within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the northeastern coast of Honduras. 2. A catastrophic and life-threatening storm surge, along with destructive waves, are expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Water levels could reach as high as 14 to 21 feet above normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should now be complete. 3. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 13.8N 83.1W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 13.8N 83.6W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND 24H 04/0600Z 13.8N 84.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 36H 04/1800Z 14.0N 85.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 05/0600Z 14.5N 87.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 05/1800Z 15.0N 88.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0600Z 15.7N 89.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/0600Z 17.0N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 08/0600Z 19.0N 83.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch