yoda

Looks serviceable to me

hmmm... from the 00z EURO this is... days 9 and 10 h5 map of North America

Week away from December, we are. Need a thread to discuss beginning of winter we do, yes yes. Mmmmm... Snow will it? Cold enough will it be? Discuss you must... or the Dark Side, win it will with rain and warm weather, yes yes

LWX still hitting early next week hard in the AFD this morning:

hmmm... days 9 and 10 EURO OP h5 map

Looks serviceable to me

Barring a last second storm... I think we can close the books on this record hurricane season and actually turn out the lights... finally lol

Anybody else watching the Sunday/Monday time period of next week? Looks mighty interesting re severe chances and rain-wise... and maybe winds too... even LWX in their afternoon AFD have been highlighting it

Am I suffering from "missed snowitis"... or does Day 10 on the EURO tonight look... interesting for us if it went out just a lil farther?

00z GGEM still has it.... highs 25-35 across the region Dec 1-2 after being in the 55-60 range on Nov 30 Looks like 00z EURO does too based off 850mb maps

In the United States I dont believe so

Now that Ji has returned... would be nice to have @showmethesnow and @Bob Chill return. Hopefully when we get a nice threat within 7 days they will post again

When I see this in the SNE thread Then I immediately know they sucked royally for us without having to go look at them

34/25 at 2am... going to be close

Blake putting in some humor in the last advisory for Theta Post-Tropical Cyclone Theta Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 300 PM GMT Sun Nov 15 2020 Theta has run out of theta-e. The cyclone has been without significant deep convection for many hours now and has been gradually spinning down today. It no longer meets the qualifications of a tropical cyclone, so this is the last advisory. The initial wind speed is set to 25 kt per the latest scatterometer pass. The low is meandering this morning. It is expected to be picked up to the north-northeast by the next trough over the northeastern Atlantic, along with an increase in forward speed. The remnants of Theta should gradually lose strength due to strong shear, very dry air and little instability before dissipating in a day or two. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/high- seas-forecast/. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 31.5N 18.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 16/0000Z 31.9N 18.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 16/1200Z 33.7N 17.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/0000Z 36.5N 16.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

Good amount of reports for a late SLGT risk day https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html

MRGL risk from SPC today for isolated damaging wind gusts

Guess I better start looking at the Euro tonight LMAO

Looks like our best friend Mr. Wind could be playing along too lol... from morning AFD from LWX about next week

Sounds like FWs coming later per morning LWX AFD

Lots of rain... again https://mobile.twitter.com/NWS_BaltWash/status/1326453052346429440

Looks like #30 is coming soon... possibly this weekend Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Eta, located over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and on Tropical Storm Theta, located over the eastern Atlantic. A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The wave is expected to move slowly westward into more conducive environmental conditions over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend when the wave reaches the central or western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring heavy rainfall along with possible flash flooding to the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and portions of Hispaniola over the next couple of days. For more detailed information, refer to products issued by your local weather office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven

Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 Eta has become better organized over the past few hours, with a better-defined eye feature on the Key West radar. Satellite pictures also show a more symmetric presentation and a large cluster of deep convection near the center. Radar data has shown increasing wind speeds in the mid-levels, which supports conservatively raising the initial wind speed to 60 kt. The current position is southwest of the eye feature on radar, assuming some shear remains, but a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to be in the storm in a few hours to acquire better data on both the initial position and intensity. It appears that the center of Eta has re-formed to the north- northeast tonight, so an initial motion is hard to determine, but is estimated to be northward at about 10 kt. Remarkably, model guidance has become well clustered just east of the previous forecast track as it seems apparent that Eta will now recurve around the ridge toward the Florida Big Bend region and out into the western Atlantic Ocean. The biggest change is that the models are faster than before, and the official forecast follows that lead, along with a small eastward forecast adjustment, near or just east of the model consensus. Further strengthening is possible today while the shear remains low-to-moderate. However, all of the models do show increasing shear by tonight, and the NHC forecast continues to call for weakening of Eta as it approaches the west coast of Florida. However, it would take only a small forecast error to allow Eta to come ashore as a hurricane, and hence a Hurricane Watch has been issued this morning. Rapid weakening is anticipated once Eta makes landfall, and strong shear should prevent any regeneration over the western Atlantic Ocean. The new forecast is a little higher than the previous advisory, mostly due to current trends, and is closer to the more bullish HMON and HWRF models. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge is possible early Thursday along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to Steinhatchee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Hurricane-force winds are possible along portions of the west coast of Florida from Anna Maria Island to Yankeetown by early Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected by late Wednesday along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to Suwanee River, and are possible Thursday from Suwannee River to Aucilla River. Interests elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Eta, as additional watches and warnings may be needed today. 3. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across western Cuba and South Florida and spread northward across portions of West and North Florida Wednesday through Friday. Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South Florida on Wednesday, especially across previously inundated areas, and across portions of West Florida through Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 25.0N 84.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 26.4N 83.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 27.9N 83.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 29.2N 82.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 13/0600Z 30.2N 81.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 13/1800Z 30.9N 79.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 14/0600Z 31.0N 78.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake