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BULLETIN Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 400 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2020 ...DELTA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.4N 91.8W ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SSE OF CAMERON LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES

Tonights GFS was the lulz for the mountains into SW VA

I am Oh wait... when does the EURO come out again? 2am? Shoot...

Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020 Observations from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Delta is gradually strengthening while it moves over the open waters of the south-central Gulf of Mexico. Based on a blend of adjusted flight-level and SFMR wind measurements from the plane, the current intensity is set at 80 kt. The cloud pattern of the hurricane continues to become better organized on satellite images, with a growing Central Dense Overcast, and convective banding features becoming better defined, particularly over the northern semicircle of the circulation. Additional intensification is likely while Delta moves through a favorable environment during the next day or so, and the official forecast is fairly close to the corrected consensus guidance, HCCA. When the system moves into the northern Gulf, a decrease in oceanic heat content, drier mid-tropospheric air, and increased vertical shear should cause at least slow weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is above the numerical guidance in 36-48 hours. It should be noted that 1-2 day tropical cyclone intensity forecasts are subject to errors of around 1 Saffir-Simpson category. The global models show a further increase in the size of the hurricane while it moves into the northern Gulf. The official wind radii forecasts are based on a consensus of these model predictions. The latest center fixes from the Hurricane Hunters show a west-northwestward motion, at about 300/15 kt. Delta should turn toward the north-northwest and north over the next 36 hours or so while moving around the western periphery of a subtropical high pressure system centered over Florida. When the hurricane moves into the northern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, Delta should turn toward the north-northeast on the southeastern side of a mid-tropospheric shortwave over the southern United States. The official track forecast is close to both the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus predictions, TVCA and HCCA, respectively. These objective aids are in close agreement with one another. Based on the official forecast, it is time to issue storm surge and hurricane warnings for a portion of the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. Key Messages: 1. Delta is expected to grow in size as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast, where life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are likely beginning Friday, particularly for portions of the Louisiana coast. Storm Surge and Hurricane Warnings are in effect, and residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials and rush preparedness actions to completion. 2. Flash, urban, small stream and minor to isolated moderate river flooding is likely Friday and Saturday from portions of the central Gulf Coast into portions of the Lower to Middle Mississippi Valley. As Delta moves farther inland, additional heavy rainfall is expected in the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic this weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 22.5N 90.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 23.7N 92.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 25.4N 93.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 27.5N 93.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 30.0N 92.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 10/1200Z 32.4N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 11/0000Z 34.2N 89.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/0000Z 37.5N 85.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

BULLETIN Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 14...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020 Corrected to remove Mobile Bay from the Storm Surge Warning area ...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.5N 90.9W ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM SSE OF CAMERON LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Sabine Pass to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, including Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne. A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the northern Gulf of Mexico coast from east of Sabine Pass to Morgan City, Louisiana. A Tropical Storm Warning has also been issued for the northern Gulf of Mexico coast from San Luis Pass, Texas to Sabine Pass, and east of Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River, including New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border, including Mobile Bay. The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning from Rio Lagartos to Dzilam, Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Sabine Pass to Ocean Springs, Mississippi including Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * High Island, TX to Sabine Pass * East of Ocean Springs, Mississippi to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * East of Sabine Pass to Morgan City, Louisiana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Luis Pass, Texas to Sabine Pass * East of Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River, including New Orleans * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of the mouth of the Pearl River to Bay St. Louis Mississippi

@Chris78 @nj2va @nw baltimore wx Dillion re-signs with the Capitals... 4 year deal worth $3.9 mil AAV... prob cause of this: And sources say Capitals will be signing Lundqvist -- https://novacapsfans.com/2020/10/06/report-ufa-henrik-lundqvist-will-sign-with-capitals-when-market-opens-friday/

Good writeup by Pasch Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2020 Observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and conventional and microwave satellite imagery indicate that Delta has not intensified since earlier today. The central pressure has risen somewhat and the current intensity estimate, 115 kt, is probably generous based on flight-level and SFMR-observed surface winds from the NOAA plane. Although the hurricane continues to have very deep convection near and over the center, the cloud pattern lacks well-defined banding features, and an eye is not evident on either geostationary or polar-orbiting satellite images. Surveillance data from the NOAA G-IV aircraft suggest that Delta's circulation does not extend as markedly into the upper troposphere as one would expect for a major hurricane. Given the current state of the system, not much strengthening seems likely before the center reaches northeastern Yucatan tomorrow morning. Some weakening is likely due to the interaction with land during the next 12-18 hours. Re-intensification over the southern Gulf of Mexico is still expected, but when Delta reaches the northern Gulf, lower oceanic heat content is likely to cause at least slight weakening. The official intensity forecast is somewhat above most of the model guidance, but not much different from the regional hurricane models, HWRF and HMON, over the northern Gulf. Fixes from the aircraft indicate a continued west-northwestward motion at just a slightly slower forward speed, 300/14 kt. The track forecast reasoning is basically unchanged from earlier today. Delta should move along and around the southwestern and western periphery of a mid-tropospheric anticyclone centered just east of Florida for the next couple of days. Around 72 hours, the flow ahead of a shortwave trough over the south-central United States should cause the tropical cyclone to turn north-northeastward and move across the central Gulf coast late Friday or early Saturday. The official track forecast remains close to the dynamical model consensus, TVCA. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge and potentially catastrophic wind damage are expected within portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico beginning tonight. All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of the Cayman Islands, western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek. This rainfall could lead to significant flash flooding and mudslides. The potential for heavy rain, flash and possible minor river flooding will increase across portions of the central Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley, and southeastern United States as Delta moves inland later this week. 3. There is an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds, especially along the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi, beginning on Friday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and follow advice given by local officials. Storm surge and hurricane watches will likely be issued for portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 19.5N 85.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 20.9N 87.1W 115 KT 130 MPH...INLAND 24H 08/0000Z 22.3N 89.8W 105 KT 120 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 08/1200Z 23.6N 91.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 25.0N 92.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 09/1200Z 26.8N 92.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 29.0N 92.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 33.0N 89.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 120H 12/0000Z 36.0N 86.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch

Still Cat 4 at 11 BULLETIN Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2020 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DELTA CONTINUES HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...EXPECTED TO BRING A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND EXTREME WINDS... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 85.1W ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES

Interesting statement i bolded in the 5am disco from Blake Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 500 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020 Delta has maintained a very deep central dense overcast during the past several hours, with overshooting cloud-top temperatures to -90C, and perhaps hints of an eye trying to emerge. On the last pass through the center, the Air Force plane reported a 4-mb pressure fall in one hour to 968 mb, with believable SFMR values of 80-85 kt. Thus, the initial wind speed is set to 85 kt. The hurricane is in the midst of a very impressive rapid intensification episode, having strengthened over 50 kt during the past 24 hours. I honestly don't see much that will stop it until it reaches Yucatan, due to low vertical wind shear, high deep-layer moisture, and the very warm and deep waters of the northwestern Caribbean. This is also supported by SHIPS rapid intensification probabilities that are well above 50 percent for most categories. Thus, the intensity forecast is raised to 115 kt near Yucatan landfall, closest to the HWRF forecast model, which has been a good performer this year, especially after ingesting NOAA radar data. Some weakening is expected due to land interaction, but conditions look ripe for re-intensification over the Gulf of Mexico. Almost all the guidance is higher, now showing Delta reaching category 4 status in the 2-to-3 day time frame, and the new NHC intensity forecast reflects this likelihood. However, an increase in southwesterly shear and cooler shelf waters near the northern Gulf coast should promote weakening, and little change has been made to the intensity forecast near landfall. Delta is moving much faster this morning to the west-northwest, with the latest estimates at about 13 kt. A strengthening mid-level ridge across Florida should steer the hurricane to the west-northwest or northwest during the next couple of days. Likely because of the deterioration of Gamma, model guidance is showing less poleward motion before Yucatan, and the official track is shifted to the west for the first day or so. Over the Gulf of Mexico, Delta should slow down and turn northward ahead of a trough moving eastward across Texas in a few days. Model guidance has again shifted westward, like the last cycle, and the official forecast is trended in that direction. However, it remains slightly east of the model consensus, due to a notable westward bias in some of the guidance during this hurricane season. Users are reminded to not focus on the details of the track or intensity forecasts, as the average 4-day track error is around 150 miles and the average 4-day intensity error is close to 15 mph. Key Messages: 1. Extremely dangerous storm surge and hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico beginning tonight, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect. 2. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of the Cayman Islands, western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek. This rainfall could lead to significant flash flooding and mudslides. The potential for heavy rain and flash flooding will increase across portions of the central Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley, and southeastern United States as Delta moves inland later this week. 3. Delta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast late this week as a hurricane. While there is large uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts, there is a significant risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the coast from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle beginning Thursday night or Friday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and monitor updates to the forecast of Delta. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 17.5N 81.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 18.7N 83.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 20.4N 85.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 21.8N 88.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 23.0N 90.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 08/1800Z 24.2N 91.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 25.8N 92.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 29.8N 91.1W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 120H 11/0600Z 34.0N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake

Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020 A few hours ago, data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters supported upgrading Delta to a hurricane. Very recent reports from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters, who are currently in Delta, support increasing the intensity a little more to 70 kt. The minimum pressure has also decreased a few mb from the NOAA mission, and is now estimated to be 977 mb. Delta has strengthened at a rapid rate of 40 kt since genesis occurred just 24 hours ago. The hurricane is quite compact with a developing tight inner core, and even the tropical-storm-force winds extend only up to 60 n mi or so from the center. After moving westward for much of the day, aircraft fixes from NOAA and the Air Force indicate that the hurricane has resumed a west-northwest motion, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 295/6 kt. Delta is expected to move to the northwest at a fairly quick pace on Tuesday and Wednesday as it moves in the flow between a subtropical high over the western Atlantic and Post-Tropical Cyclone Gamma over or near the Yucatan Peninsula. This motion should take Delta over or very near the northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula by Tuesday night and over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. After that time, the western part of the ridge is expected to slowly erode as a trough moves eastward across the south-central U.S. This change in the steering pattern should cause Delta to slow down and then turn northward toward the northern Gulf coast, and it will likely make landfall there in a little more than 4 days. The models are in fair agreement, and the NHC track forecast is only a touch to the west of the previous one. The hurricane has taken advantage of the near ideal conditions of low vertical wind shear, high amounts of moisture, and very warm 29-30 C SSTs. These favorable environmental conditions for the hurricane will persist for the next 2 or 3 days or so, and therefore, it seems reasonable to believe that rapid intensification will continue in the short term. Delta is expected to become a major hurricane in about 24 hours when it is near the Yuctan Peninsula. If Delta makes landfall on that landmass, it would likely temper the cyclone's strength for a period of time. Beyond a few days, when Delta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf coast, there will likely be an increase in southwesterly wind shear. These less conducive upper-level winds and cooler shelf waters should end the strengthening trend prior to the U.S. landfall. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies close to the HCCA and IVCN consensus models. Users are reminded to not focus on the details of the track or intensity forecasts, as the average 4-day track error is around 150 miles and the average 4-day intensity error is close to 15 mph. Key Messages: 1. Dangerous storm surge and hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico beginning Tuesday night, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect. 2. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula during the next few days. This rainfall could lead to significant flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Cayman Islands beginning early Tuesday, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 4. Delta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast late this week as a hurricane. While there is large uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts, there is an increasing risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the coast from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle beginning Thursday night or Friday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and monitor updates to the forecast of Delta. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 16.8N 80.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 18.1N 82.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 19.8N 84.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 21.5N 87.1W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND 48H 08/0000Z 23.0N 89.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 08/1200Z 24.0N 90.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 25.2N 91.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 28.6N 91.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 33.6N 88.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

BULLETIN Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020 ...DELTA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 80.3W ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has replaced the Hurricane Warning with a Tropical Storm Warning for the province of Pinar Del Rio and discontinued the Hurricane Watch for the province of Artemisa and the Isle of Youth. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Punta Herrero northward to Tulum and from Rio Lagartos westward to Progresso. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico * Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac * Cuba province of Pinar del Rio * Isle of Youth * Punta Herrero to Tulum * Rio Lagartos to Progresso A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuba province of La Habana A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

What a 5 day track lol

Tropical Depression Twenty-Six Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 1100 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2020 Satellite data indicate that the disturbance just south of Jamaica has become better organized this evening. Microwave and shortwave infrared images indicate that the center is now well defined, and deep convection has been persisting near and to the south of the center. Based on this data, the system now meets the criteria to be considered a tropical depression. The initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory. The depression is currently moving west-northwestward at 8 kt on the southern side of an Atlantic subtropical ridge. A continued west-northwest to northwest motion at about the same forward speed is expected during the next 24 to 36 hours, taking the system across the Cayman Islands and toward western Cuba. Around the time the depression is expected to be near western Cuba, the models show it accelerating northwestward as it moves in the faster flow between the ridge and Tropical Storm Gamma. This motion should bring the tropical cyclone into the southern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Later on, a notable slow down and a turn to the north is forecast to occur late in the week when the depression will likely be approaching the northern Gulf coast. This change in the forecast motion is a result of the ridge weakening and a trough approaching the cyclone from the west. The models are in relatively good agreement, which is surprising since they often diverge for weak systems, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. There is currently some northeasterly shear affecting the depression, but the models all show the shear lessening by tomorrow and remaining fairly light for the next few days. These improving upper-level wind conditions combined with a moist air mass and warm waters should allow for at least steady strengthening during the next few days. By late in the week, when the storm is forecast to approach the U.S. Gulf coast, there could be an increase in southerly or southwesterly shear, which could limit additional strengthening by that time. The NHC intensity forecast lies fairly close to the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids, and shows the depression becoming a hurricane near western Cuba with additional strengthening over the Gulf of Mexico. Users are reminded that the average 4- and 5-day NHC track forecast errors are about 160 to 200 miles at those time periods, respectively. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands beginning late Monday, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 2. Dangerous storm surge and hurricane conditions are possible in portions of western Cuba and the Isle of Youth by Tuesday afternoon, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect. 3. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba during the next few days and could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. 4. The system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast late this week as a hurricane. While there is large uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts at these time ranges, there is a risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the coast from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of the system and check for updates to the forecast during the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 17.0N 77.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 17.4N 78.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 18.3N 79.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 20.0N 81.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 22.2N 84.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 07/1200Z 24.1N 87.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 25.4N 88.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 27.2N 90.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 10/0000Z 30.0N 89.9W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Interesting disco tonight Tropical Storm Gamma Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020 Gamma has moved much farther northeast than previously anticipated. With little in the way of low or mid-level large-scale steering flow currently in place, it seems likely that upper-level southwesterlies, also responsible for the shear affecting the tropical storm, are causing this recent northeastward motion. This may be either through reformations of the center closer to the convection or a direct contribution to the net steering. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating Gamma and so far has found max SFMR winds of 47 kt but flight level winds of only 45 kt. Given the data so far, there is no indication that Gamma is any stronger than the 50 kt intensity, but it seems prudent to let the plane finish its pattern before lowering the winds at this time. Gamma's future track is highly uncertain. The track guidance spread is much higher than usual, and confidence in the forecast is accordingly low. Most of the global models indicate that Gamma will soon begin moving generally west-southwestward as a mid-level ridge briefly builds over the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico. Unfortunately, there is little agreement on exactly when this will happen or how fast Gamma will move once it turns. After about 48 h, Gamma could interact with Tropical Depression Twenty-Six, which is forecast to move over the northwestern Caribbean Sea at that time. Current dynamical models are notoriously bad at forecasting such interactions, but if the two systems do interact it will likely cause Gamma to move inland over the Yucatan. Whether such an interaction occurs or not, continued shear and proximity to land should cause the tropical storm to gradually weaken, and Gamma could dissipate if it moves over land (and stays there) in a few days, as shown by the GFS. The ECMWF shows the vortex remaining over water but dissipating nonetheless, while a couple other global models maintain the vortex longer and show it moving north over the central Gulf of Mexico late in the forecast period. The NHC forecast is a compromise between those solutions, showing a remnant low moving north over the southern Gulf of Mexico by day 5. In general, the NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, but slightly lower to account for the system potentially moving inland. Due to the uncertainty in the forecast at this time, future advisories may feature larger than normal changes to the track or intensity forecast. It is also worth noting that several dynamical model trackers appear to lose Gamma and jump to tracking Tropical Depression Twenty-Six when it reaches the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in unrealistic depictions of the intensity and track forecasts. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Gamma is expected to produce heavy rainfall for several days over portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Central America, and far western Cuba. This rainfall could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in the mountainous regions of southeastern Mexico and Central America. 2. Even though Gamma is just offshore, tropical storm conditions are likely along portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 22.8N 87.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 22.7N 87.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 22.3N 88.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 21.8N 89.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 21.3N 90.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 07/1200Z 20.3N 90.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 20.2N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 09/0000Z 22.0N 90.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 10/0000Z 24.0N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Tropical Storm Gamma Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2020 A few hours ago, the Air Force Hurricane Hunters found maximum winds of around 35 kt in the northeastern quadrant of the cyclone, which was the reason why it was upgraded to Tropical Storm Gamma. Since then, there have been no stronger winds reported so the initial intensity remains 35 kt. The minimum pressure estimated by the aircraft is quite low at 998 mb, so it seems likely that the winds will increase soon. The storm also has better banding features compared to hours ago and deep convection has also been persisting near the center. Fixes from the aircraft indicate that Gamma has jogged to the left recently, but smoothing through the short-term jog suggests an initial motion of 310/8 kt. The tropical storm is expected to remain on the western periphery of a subtropical high during the next couple of days, and that should cause the storm to move slowly northwestward during that time period. This track should take Gamma across the northern Yucatan Peninsula and perhaps over the extreme south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend. By early next week, a mid-level ridge is expected to build to the north of the storm while another low pressure area is forecast to develop to the east of Gamma. This change in the steering pattern is expected to cause the storm to make a sharp left turn toward the Bay of Campeche, but continue to move at a fairly slow forward speed. The models have shifted well to the south from 48-120 hours this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted in that direction. Despite the shift, most of the reliable models are south of the new official track forecast, and future southward adjustments could be necessary. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for additional strengthening until the cyclone reaches the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday, and the NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly higher landfall intensity there. Once the system moves over the Yucatan Peninsula and the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico, the combination of land interaction, an increase in shear, and drier air should limit the amount of strengthening into next week. At this point, no model shows Gamma becoming a hurricane, and the NHC intensity forecast shows little change in strength for much of the forecast period. The biggest threat from this large and slow-moving storm is the the potential for heavy rainfall and flooding, particularly near and over mountainous terrain. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Gamma is expected to produce heavy rainfall that could result in life-threatening flash flooding over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, far western Cuba and well away from the center in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas. 2. Gamma is forecast to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 19.1N 86.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 19.8N 86.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 20.8N 87.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 04/1200Z 21.6N 88.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 05/0000Z 22.0N 88.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 05/1200Z 21.9N 88.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 21.7N 90.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 21.0N 91.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 20.3N 92.8W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gamma Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2020 ...GAMMA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE LANDFALL IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TOMORROW... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 86.1W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Cabo Catoche Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya Mexico * West of Cabo Catoche to Dzilam Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 86.1 West. Gamma is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the west or west-southwest. On the forecast track, the center of Gamma should be near the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected before Gamma moves inland over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday. After landfall, slight weakening or little change in strength is expected. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

You guys always have the best gifs/images I know you guys kept the toaster of failure that I think Forky made up? Along with his salad shooter of success?

Too bad clouds and showers will block our view tonight

I'm guessing that's supposed to be a blizzard sounding?

DCA +1.4 NYC +1.2 BOS +0.7 ORD +1.1 ATL +1.9 IAH +0.8 DEN +2.0 PHX +3.9 SEA +2.7

BWI: November 1st IAD: October 26th DCA: November 11th RIC November 4th TB: Warmest October Temperature: 78°F

Washington Football Team is in 1st place in the NFC East through Week 3