yoda

lol 12z NAVGEM

That was the one we willed north to hit us even though the February 5th event was like a week away

Rather large move NW by the 12z UKIE as well... doesn't get much precip into the LWX CWA... but the trend is clear

You should create the storm thread for it *ducks*

I'll be fine if you get 10 and I get 6...

12z CMC says no though... will be the model Ji perseverates on

I'll take the 12z Para GFS for 200 please Alex... another NW tick from 06z with the wintry precip

A few more bumps NW... not all the way where you get jacked again lol

FWIW, 06z ICON has 2-4 inches just west of i95 corridor and N and W for the rest of the region Previous run at 00z had nothing

Well now I kinda see why looking at the individ members... P013 or P016 please lol

The 06z GEFS ensemble mean for snow went up 2-3" compared to 00z for just about everyone... wow

Woah... para 06z GFS was a nice hit ETA: Especially those S and E of i95 corridor

Wonder if 06z GEFS will up the ante a bit from its 00z run

I'm not even sure where the run was going after... there is h5 energy coming down the pipe at 240 as you can see below...

00z EURO is probably going to crush and Day 9+ idea when you have a 1048mb HP sitting in S IA at 216 Temps are 10 to 20 below zero from OH to IL at 228

Looks like 00z CMC has some idea for Day 9 and on... but is suppressed

Double what 18z showed FWIW... I think 18z GEFS showed 6 hits... 00z looks like 13 hits, but 2 (p02 and p13) I'm guessing either came through with snow for us the prior 6 hours or they are actually that far NW in their track

Looks intriguing on h5 out west at hr 300... gets buried out in the Pacific at 324 lol

Weird evolution of the Day 9 into Day 11 system... but we get hit good Day 11 on 00z GFS

Lol nice one

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 807 AM EST Tue Feb 2 2021 DCZ001-MDZ004>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-503>508-VAZ052>057-505- 506-021800- /O.EXT.KLWX.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-210202T1800Z/ District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles- St. Marys-Calvert-Northwest Montgomery- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard- Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- King George-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun- 807 AM EST Tue Feb 2 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to two inches. * WHERE...The District of Columbia, central, north central, northeast, northern and southern Maryland and central and northern Virginia. * WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute.

Not much going on here in Fairfax at the moment right by Mason

Both maps are 10:1 SRs... there is no Kuchera for the control FYI This weekend After the 12th-14th storm moves through