yoda

lol Tom Wilson is trending on Twitter... easy to see why... another dirty hit into the boards

Ovechkin finally played an entire game. Backstrom being out hurts you guys the most I think... guess we'll see what happens in Game 5 on Thursday

Jesus... TS to Cat 4 in 48 hours Tropical Storm Genevieve Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020 400 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2020 Genevieve's infrared satellite presentation continues to improve in organization, with the center embedded beneath a Central Dense Overcast and strong convection occurring in two bands to the southwest and northwest of the center. There has been a dearth of microwave data over the cyclone during the past few hours, so it's difficult to know how the internal structure has changed, but subjective and objective satellite estimates all support raising the intensity to 55 kt. Genevieve's motion has not changed--still west-northwestward (290 degrees) at 16 kt. The cyclone will be moving along the periphery of a strong mid-level ridge which extends from the southwestern United States southeastward into Mexico. This ridge should steer Genevieve toward the west-northwest or northwest for the entire 5-day forecast period, but small variations in the strength and orientation of the ridge will play a role in how close Genevieve gets to the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula. The track models are showing a slight bend to the storm's forecast path in 2-3 days, with the most recent run of the GFS showing a much closer approach to the Baja California peninsula. At this stage, however, that model is a bit of an outlier compared to the other guidance. Still, given the new set of models, the updated NHC track forecast has been shifted north and east of the previous track prediction, and it lies very close to the ECMWF, HWRF, and HCCA model solutions. Some of the intensity guidance for Genevieve is incredible. Due to low shear, very warm water, and high atmospheric moisture, several of the various SHIPS Rapid Intensification (RI) indices for the 12-, 24-, and 36-hour forecast periods are between 95 and 100 percent--numbers that suggest there is little doubt that Genevieve will go through a period of significant RI during the next couple of days. RI is explicitly shown in the NHC intensity forecast, which is very near the HCCA and Florida State Superensemble solutions and shows Genevieve peaking as a category 4 hurricane in about 48 hours. Amazingly, the LGEM and COAMPS-TC models are even higher than what is indicated in the official forecast, showing a peak intensity of 125-130 kt. A combination of cooler waters and increasing shear (especially at the end of the forecast period) is expected to cause weakening on days 3 through 5. Large swells generated by Genevieve are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southern Mexico today and will spread northward along the coast of Mexico to the Baja California peninsula by Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 13.3N 101.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 14.4N 104.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 16.0N 106.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 17.4N 108.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 18.7N 110.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 19/1800Z 20.0N 111.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 20/0600Z 21.3N 112.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 21/0600Z 23.5N 115.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 22/0600Z 25.5N 118.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

00z Euro doesn't do much with the first wave... 2nd wave it develops looking at 850mb vorticity but then seems to lose it for a while as it heads just north of DR/Haiti and Cuba... then gets its act together again... looks like once it gets into the Eastern GOM it decides to reappear and strengthen... interesting run

Terrifying in its overdone as usual... CMC is a crap tropical model And really? You expect the 2nd tropical system to ride over all of Cuba and deepen? Come on...

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=DEVC1&num=72&banner=gmap&raw=0&w=325 Ah, a nice balmy 107 at 9am

So much fun to watch that OT goal... Caps are done. They had that one great season where they won it all in 2018... but they go nowhere in the playoffs basically in other years. And yes... I know the Penguins didn't even make the playoffs this year... and the Islanders swept the Penguins last postseason. But at least we have 3 Cups with Crosby and the such

2 AM TWO has double lemons Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Josephine, located just over a hundred miles north-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands, and on Tropical Storm Kyle, located several hundred miles southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland. 1. A fast-moving tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands is producing a small area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is expected to move westward at about 20 mph during the next few days, and that fast speed is likely to limit development while the system approaches the Windward and southern Leeward Islands today and Monday and moves across the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday. After that time, the system is expected to move more slowly westward across the central and western Caribbean Sea, and upper-level winds could be conducive for development during the middle to latter part of this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. 2. Another tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers. This wave is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph during the next few days, and some development will be possible by the middle to latter part of the week as environmental conditions become more conducive while the system is over the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Berg

00z EURO has signs of SLP... two of them in the MDR... but ends up doing next to nothing with them and keeps them very weak (>1008mb)

CMC is down in Nicaragua and Honduras... and nothing shows up behind it in the MDR. GFS is a TS into the Yucatan and hurricane into Southern Mexico... also with no real tropical systems behind it in the MDR

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Reno NV 327 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 CAC035-152232- /O.EXP.KREV.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-200815T2230Z/ Lassen CA- 327 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 ...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN LASSEN COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 330 PM PDT... The tornadic pyrocumulonimbus from the Loyalton Wildfire which prompted the warning has weakened. However, extreme fire behavior is likely to continue into early evening with additional fire tornadoes and strong outflow winds in excess of 60 mph possible. Continue to follow evacuation orders from your local authorities. Do not go into this area!

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Reno NV 253 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 CAC035-152230- /O.CON.KREV.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-200815T2230Z/ Lassen CA- 253 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM PDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN LASSEN COUNTY... At 250 PM PDT, a pyrocumulonimbus from the Loyalton Wildfire is capable of producing a fire induced tornado and outflow winds in excess of 60 mph was located south of Chilcoot near and to the east of the fire. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Extreme fire behavior with strong outflow winds capable of downing trees and starting new fires. This is an extremely dangerous situation for fire fighters. This tornadic pyrocumulonimbus will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Lassen County in the vicinity of the fire. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Follow any evacuation orders from your local authorities. Do not go into this area! Life-threatening situation!

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Reno NV 235 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 The National Weather Service in Reno has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southeastern Lassen County in northern California... * Until 330 PM PDT. * At 228 PM PDT, a pyrocumulonimbus from the Loyalton Wildfire is capable of producing a fire induced tornado and outflow winds in excess of 60 mph was located south of Chilcoot, and is nearly stationary. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Extreme fire behavior with strong outflow winds capable of downing trees and starting new fires. This is and extremely dangerous situation for fire fighters. * This tornadic pyrocumulonimbus will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Lassen County in the vicinity of the fire. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3975 12012 3972 12007 3970 12014 3971 12015 3973 12015 TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 240DEG 0KT 3972 12013 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...<.75IN

lol using the ICON for tropical systems

Fringed

Lot of weak TS in there

Western NC into the Piedmont getting crushed with rain... especially near Hickory Flash Flood Statement National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 326 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020 NCC003-023-027-035-151015- /O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0047.000000T0000Z-200815T1015Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Alexander NC-Burke NC-Caldwell NC-Catawba NC- 326 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020 ...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR FALLING CREEK AND SNOW CREEK IN HICKORY... ...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALEXANDER, CATAWBA, SOUTHEASTERN BURKE AND SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL COUNTIES... At 326 AM EDT, emergency management reported thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing with swift water rescues occurring. This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for Falling Creek and Snow Creek in Hickory. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing flash flooding. SOURCE...Emergency management. IMPACT...This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! Life threatening flash flooding of low water crossings, small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses. Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Hickory, Newton, St. Stephens, Conover, Longview, Granite Falls, Bethlehem, Maiden, Icard, Hildebran, Claremont, Rhodhiss, Catawba, Mountain View, Hickory Regional Airport, Lake Hickory, Lake Rhodhiss, South Mountains State Park, Startown and Propst. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately. Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate precautions to protect life and property. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding. Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other drainage areas and low lying spots. Move to higher ground now! This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order. && LAT...LON 3557 8163 3583 8139 3584 8113 3574 8131 3571 8126 3570 8120 3572 8109 3555 8106 FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC

Hope we will see some type of this again soon...

Yes please on Sunday after the Saturday washout (from this mornings AFD from LWX):

Its just model runs, but none of the 00z runs tonight (EURO/GFS and yes, even the GGEM) show any tropical disturbances or development anywhere besides Josephine disappearing in a few days and maybe Kyle going out to sea in the North Atlantic. Pacific side of things there is some development... and both the Euro and the GFS tonight both show an intense tropical system out there. Seems we may be waiting more towards the first week of September for tropical development out in the CV region. Of course, this could change on the next run of the models... but so far, the Atlantic is quiet. Could it be a ticking time bomb waiting to explode once a strong wave comes off the coast of Africa? Yes, most likely... but models see nothing... for now I'm not trying to downplay the risks or the signs or call bust... far from it. Just calling it as I see it on the models right now. Seems we may have to wait just a lil bit longer for the Atlantic side of the Tropics to rear its ugly head again

00z GGEM is quite the soaker for the weekend... 00z GFS is wet, but not as wet as the 18z run showed. 00z NAM probably falls in line with these two models regarding rainfall of 1-3". 00z UKIE is quite dry north of a line say from Prince William County to Warrenton to Luray... compared to the other two globals above, it shows less then 0.5" QPF for those north of the line mentioned

18z GFS is a deluge for the region the entire run... 6-8" in N VA/DC/C MD