yoda

1630 disco

1630 SPC OTLK SLGT risk for most of LWX CWA into C VA

This is interesting... wave going to break in 2 Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Tropical Depression Laura, centered inland over Arkansas. Future advisories will be issued by the Weather Prediction Center. A tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands is producing an area of showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves westward at about 15 mph toward the eastern Caribbean islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Another tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean just west of the Cabo Verde Islands. The northern part of this wave, which should move rapidly westward over the central Atlantic during the next few days, is not forecast to develop as it is expected to remain in unfavorable environmental conditions. However, the southern part of the wave is expected be nearly stationary south of the Cabo Verde Islands for the next several days, and some development of this system is possible early next week when it begins to move slowly westward over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 1112 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2020 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1101 PM TSTM WND GST 1 E HAYES 44.37N 101.00W 08/27/2020 M104 MPH STANLEY SD PUBLIC PERSONAL WEATHER STATION.

97mph wind gust reported in the MCS in SD tonight PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 1119 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2020 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1100 PM TSTM WND GST 2 ENE BUNKER 44.25N 101.06W 08/27/2020 M97 MPH STANLEY SD PUBLIC PERSONAL WEATHER STATION. RADAR ESTIMATED TIME AND APPROXIMATE LOCATION.

STW Allegheny and Mineral counties till 915pm moving SE at 35

I know of him and have seen his posts before... thought he had gotten banned and wizard was his new SN

Beginning to think the wizard poster is SandySurvivor

ENH risk on new Day 2 for E IA/N IL/S WI

Probably missed it in the main thread... guessing Josh is somewhere near the LA coastline?

@weatherwiz is going to go full weenie when he sees the new Day 2 from SPC... ENH risk with 30% hatched wind... 5% tor... and 15% hatched hail in SE NY/NE PA/NW NJ

00z NAM looks intriguing sounding-wise for late Friday afternoon into the overnight

Both were deleted

At least one specific poster isn't here posting about Sandy

@weatherwiz weenie has fired after SPC issued that watch

Afternoon AFD from LWX sounds good

STWatch issued to our NW in PA till 9pm https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0449.html

Still ENH/30% wind at 1630 SPC update

MCD issued to our NW in PA... 60 percent chance of watch https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1568.html

Day 2 SVR SLGT risk moved to our NW... SLGT in C MD/NW VA/E WV.... DC/BWI/EZF in MRGL

ENH risk for today... moved slightly more to the west and south across N VA and C MD

Tropical Storm Marco Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 400 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Marco is clearly weakening tonight. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission showed that flight-level and SFMR had decreased along with a substantial rise in central pressure. In addition, GOES-16 1-min satellite data show the surface center well displaced from the deep convection, and it appears that Marco is decoupling from its mid-level circulation to the northeast. The initial wind speed is set to 50 kt, and that could be generous. Some large changes have been required on this forecast. Considering the shear is only forecast to increase, there is no significant chance that Marco re-intensifies to a hurricane, and the hurricane warnings have been replaced with tropical storm warnings. Furthermore, now that the storm is losing vertical coherence, the intensity forecast has been decreased as well, and is fairly consistent with the model consensus and almost every model. Marco has turned northwestward this morning at about 9 kt. The storm should gradually turn westward as it approaches southeastern Louisiana due to the shallower cyclone feeling the low-level ridge. Marco will likely dissipate in a couple of days near the Texas/Louisiana border due to continued strong shear. Guidance has come into better agreement on the track going slightly inland or just brushing the Louisiana coast, and the track has been nudged southward on this advisory. It should be noted that the heaviest rain and strongest winds will likely be northeast of the center, so users should not focus on the exact track of the cyclone. Key Messages: 1. Gusty winds, dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected from Marco along portions of the Gulf Coast beginning later today. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given by local government officials. 2. Tropical Storm Laura could bring additional storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of the week. This could result in a prolonged period of hazardous weather for areas that may also be affected by Marco. Interests there should monitor the progress of Marco and Laura and updates to the forecast during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 27.6N 88.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 28.6N 89.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 29.2N 90.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 25/1800Z 29.5N 92.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 26/0600Z 29.4N 94.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marco Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 400 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 ...HURRICANE WARNINGS DISCONTINUED FOR MARCO BUT DANGEROUS STORM SURGE STILL ANTICIPATED... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.6N 88.2W ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning from Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Hurricane Watch for Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans has been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Watches west of Intracoastal City Louisiana and from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border have been discontinued. All Storm Surge Watches have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for.... * Morgan City Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi * Lake Borgne A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 88.2 West. Marco is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). Marco is forecast to approach the coast of Louisiana this afternoon, and then turn westward and move very close to the coast of Louisiana through Tuesday night. Data from the Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is expected, and Marco is forecast to become a tropical depression late on Tuesday and dissipate on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km), primarily northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

All hurricane warnings and watches cancelled... storm surge watch cancelled on 5am advisory