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Subtropical Depression Four Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042020 500 PM AST Mon Jun 22 2020 The non-tropical low pressure system that the National Hurricane Center has been following for the past couple of days off of the U.S. east coast has developed enough organized convection near the center to be classified as subtropical depression. The subtropical status is due to the low-level circulation center being co-located beneath an upper-level cold low as seen in water vapor imagery. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on earlier ASCAT wind data indicating numerous surface wind vectors of 26-28 kt in the southern semicircle, along with a TAFB subtropical satellite classification of ST1.5/25-30 kt. The initial motion estimate is 075/08 kt. Subtropical Depression Four is located north of a deep-layer ridge and is being influenced by weak westerly mid- to upper-level flow. The cyclone is forecast by all of the global and regional models to move east-northeastward tonight and then turn northeastward on Tuesday. A northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected Tuesday night through Thursday when the system is forecast to be located over the cold waters of the far north Atlantic. The cyclone should be absorbed by a larger extratropical low or dissipate on Thursday. The NHC track forecast is close to a blend of the simple consensus aids TVCN and GFEX and the NOAA-HCCA corrected consensus. The cyclone is beginning to move over a ridge of higher SSTs of 26.0-26.5 deg C in the northern extent of the Gulf Stream. The forecast track takes the subtropical depression down the length of the axis of warmer water during the next 12-18 h, so there is the potential for the cyclone to become a subtropical storm during that time, especially given the large pool of cold air aloft, with 200-mb temperatures of near -58 deg C and 500-mb temperatures of about -10 deg C which is creating a lot of instability. After the system moves off of the warm ridge and into sharply cooler water around 36 hours or so, gradual weakening is expected, with transition to an extratropical cyclone forecast by 48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the consensus models ICON, IVCN, and HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 38.2N 65.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 38.5N 64.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 39.0N 62.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 40.5N 59.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 42.5N 56.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 25/0600Z 45.0N 53.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 25/1800Z 47.8N 50.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

BULLETIN Subtropical Depression Four Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042020 500 PM AST Mon Jun 22 2020 ...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. EAST COAST... ...FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM LAND... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.2N 65.7W ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM SE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Depression Four was located near latitude 38.2 North, longitude 65.7 West. The subtropical depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is forecast to continue through tonight. A motion toward the northeast is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible tonight and early Tuesday, and the subtropical depression could briefly become a subtropical storm. Slow weakening is expected to begin by Tuesday afternoon or evening. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart

Not even outlooked for Tuesday per new SPC OTLK for day 2... so I guess there is a disconnect there 0/5/5 for Day 1 0600 SPC OTLK

I was about to ask why no one posted about the AFD lol

Better turn on the sprinklers

Pouring here now with some t&l

Pretty decent storm just north of Manassas heading north into western Fairfax county per radarscope... can hear the thunder here

It's not as above normal as say the areas around the lower Carribbean or just off SE coast... besides the small area near the Big Bend of FL

Yes, Game 1 was rescheduled for the next day -- from October 9th to October 10th https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1979_World_Series

You live in SNE... there is no being slapped with D's up there in your face... you'll have to bend over if you want one

Never heard of that before... hope you are feeling better

I know technically it doesn't say Mid Atlantic in the SPC text for the SPC 4-8 day OTLK... but this could be promising and maybe what was being picked up on as @Kmlwx and @high risk posted about above:

We need to have a zoom meeting/cooking class with @Mrs.J... everything she cooks and makes both looks and sounds fantastic Of course we can add others as well who cook well... which is not me lol

See a good amount of recurve and Caribbean cruisers if that is to be believed... not much action in GOM or around the islands

Over a foot of snow possible... in mid June URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Missoula MT 1049 AM MDT Mon Jun 15 2020 MTZ007-170000- /O.NEW.KMSO.WS.A.0007.200617T0000Z-200617T1800Z/ Butte/Blackfoot Region- 1049 AM MDT Mon Jun 15 2020 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy wet snow possible. For elevations 5000 feet and higher: total snow accumulations of up to 8 inches possible. Locally higher amounts of 12 to 15 inches possible in the highest terrain (above roughly 6500 feet). * WHERE...Butte, Georgetown Lake, Highway 12 Garrison to Elliston, Homestake Pass, and MacDonald Pass. * WHEN...From Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Backcountry conditions could become difficult, if not dangerous, during this time.

Lulz URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Great Falls MT 117 PM MDT Mon Jun 15 2020 MTZ008-014-015-052-055-161200- /O.NEW.KTFX.WS.A.0007.200617T0000Z-200617T1800Z/ Beaverhead-Central and Southern Lewis and Clark-Madison-Jefferson- Gallatin- Including Big Hole Pass, Wisdom, Monida Pass, Virginia City, Boulder, Boulder Hill, Elk Park Pass, Homestake Pass, and Targhee Pass 117 PM MDT Mon Jun 15 2020 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING ABOVE 5000 FEET... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible above 5000 feet. Total snow accumulations of up to 8 inches. Locally higher amounts exceeding 12 inches are possible above 7500 feet. * WHERE...Elevations above 5000 feet in Beaverhead, Central and Southern Lewis and Clark, Madison, Jefferson, and Gallatin Counties. * WHEN...From Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult. Hazardous backcountry conditions. The weight of the snow on branches with foliage could cause them to break. * Note...This Winter Storm Watch does not include the cities of Bozeman, Ennis, Dillon, or Helena.

I'm sure you are enjoying it

Nice disco about early next week from this afternoon's LWX AFD... but I don't remember the May 18th pattern off the top of my head... will have to go back and look it up:

Thanks Ji

00z CMC similar... but not to the extent of the GFS with that megaband lol... still, 2 to 4 inches of rain

00z GFS continues with a wet week upcoming with potential flooding... through next Tuesday night... 6 to what looks like 10 inches for parts of N VA and C MD lol

Tree damage in Monrovia, MD per LWX SWS

New STW for Carroll and East Central Frederick and NW Baltimore counties till 11:15 pm

Don't see much on base velocity on radarscope