yoda

Lot of weak TS in there

Western NC into the Piedmont getting crushed with rain... especially near Hickory Flash Flood Statement National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 326 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020 NCC003-023-027-035-151015- /O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0047.000000T0000Z-200815T1015Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Alexander NC-Burke NC-Caldwell NC-Catawba NC- 326 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020 ...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR FALLING CREEK AND SNOW CREEK IN HICKORY... ...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALEXANDER, CATAWBA, SOUTHEASTERN BURKE AND SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL COUNTIES... At 326 AM EDT, emergency management reported thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing with swift water rescues occurring. This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for Falling Creek and Snow Creek in Hickory. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing flash flooding. SOURCE...Emergency management. IMPACT...This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! Life threatening flash flooding of low water crossings, small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses. Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Hickory, Newton, St. Stephens, Conover, Longview, Granite Falls, Bethlehem, Maiden, Icard, Hildebran, Claremont, Rhodhiss, Catawba, Mountain View, Hickory Regional Airport, Lake Hickory, Lake Rhodhiss, South Mountains State Park, Startown and Propst. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately. Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate precautions to protect life and property. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding. Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other drainage areas and low lying spots. Move to higher ground now! This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order. && LAT...LON 3557 8163 3583 8139 3584 8113 3574 8131 3571 8126 3570 8120 3572 8109 3555 8106 FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC

Hope we will see some type of this again soon...

Yes please on Sunday after the Saturday washout (from this mornings AFD from LWX):

Its just model runs, but none of the 00z runs tonight (EURO/GFS and yes, even the GGEM) show any tropical disturbances or development anywhere besides Josephine disappearing in a few days and maybe Kyle going out to sea in the North Atlantic. Pacific side of things there is some development... and both the Euro and the GFS tonight both show an intense tropical system out there. Seems we may be waiting more towards the first week of September for tropical development out in the CV region. Of course, this could change on the next run of the models... but so far, the Atlantic is quiet. Could it be a ticking time bomb waiting to explode once a strong wave comes off the coast of Africa? Yes, most likely... but models see nothing... for now I'm not trying to downplay the risks or the signs or call bust... far from it. Just calling it as I see it on the models right now. Seems we may have to wait just a lil bit longer for the Atlantic side of the Tropics to rear its ugly head again

00z GGEM is quite the soaker for the weekend... 00z GFS is wet, but not as wet as the 18z run showed. 00z NAM probably falls in line with these two models regarding rainfall of 1-3". 00z UKIE is quite dry north of a line say from Prince William County to Warrenton to Luray... compared to the other two globals above, it shows less then 0.5" QPF for those north of the line mentioned

18z GFS is a deluge for the region the entire run... 6-8" in N VA/DC/C MD

Backstrom will miss Game 2.. in concussion protocol... but Eller will be back in the lineup https://www.nhl.com/news/nicklas-backstrom-washington-capitals-status/c-318455854

Watch this become Kyle just because Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Josephine, located over the tropical Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands. 1. A broad area of low pressure over eastern North Carolina is forecast to move east-northeastward across the north Atlantic well to the southeast of New England and to the south of the Canadian Maritime provinces over the next several days. This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics during the next few days while it moves over warm sea surface temperatures of the Gulf Stream. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Roberts

Already pouring here as a storm has developed right over top of me

Morning AFD from LWX tells us why

Flash Flood Watch for everyone starting this morning into this evening

yes please

Very interesting and thanks for the response, appreciate it. Sounds like something to do in my spare time lol

Never heard of WOFs before... anyone else heard of it before? What kind of model ensemble is it?

BWI Airport reported 2.39 inches of rain in 55 minutes (between 4:54pm and 5:49pm) https://mobile.twitter.com/NWS_BaltWash/status/1293666171460493314

Significant flood wave moving down the Patapsco River Flash Flood Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 702 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 MDC005-027-510-130045- /O.CON.KLWX.FF.W.0042.000000T0000Z-200813T0045Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Baltimore City MD-Howard MD-Baltimore MD- 702 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 ...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM EDT FOR EASTERN HOWARD AND SOUTHWESTERN BALTIMORE COUNTIES AND BALTIMORE CITY... At 701 PM EDT, widespread flash flooding was reported, especially in the Catonsville, Oella, Arbutus, and Lansdowne areas. There was also a significant flood wave moving down the Patapsco River with flooding beginning in the Patapsco State Park and Elkridge areas. Over three inches of rain have fallen in some locations. Flash flooding is already occurring. HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Heavy rain producing flash flooding. SOURCE...Emergency management. IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses. Some locations that may experience flooding include... Baltimore... Columbia... Pikesville... Elkridge... Historic Ellicott City... Ellicott City... Towson... Catonsville... Woodlawn... Randallstown... Owings Mills... Milford Mill... Lochearn... Arbutus... Brooklyn Park... Savage-guilford... Ilchester... Linthicum... Garrison... Lansdowne...

Map version

Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 429 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 Day 1 Valid 01Z Wed Aug 12 2020 - 12Z Wed Aug 12 2020 ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE HEART OF THE MID ATLANTIC URBAN CORRIDOR... ...Eastern U.S... There is a marked potential for scattered intense rainfall today, which first appears as a local maximum in the hi-res model consensus, but when one zooms in it comes more fully into focus. It is difficult to outline a Moderate Risk area for flash flooding associated with loosely organized summertime convection within weak low level inflow winds. Today, however, we have the heaviest model signal located across an area that is both urban and already saturated, and the environmental signal for heavy local rainfall rates is pretty exceptional. The 00Z KIAD sounding at Dulles Airport was particularly telling, with steep lapse rates and little inhibition, coupled with nearly a 2.00 inch precipitable water value. An upper trough is merely brushing across the top of this region, and into northern New England, and while this will provide only minimal lift, it will drop a cold front into position across southern Pennsylvania to near NYC by midday, helping to focus the pool of moisture and instability over the Mid-Atlantic states. Models forecast a swath of MUCAPE 2000 J/kg or more in the Moderate Risk area. Consumption of this instability pool may be chaotic, owing to storm initiation along sea breezes, mountain ridges, and outflows. But the net effect is usually for fairly broad scale overturning, resulting in scattered very heavy rain. In recent events the HREF has been good at placing the general axis of heaviest rainfall, and today that axis is essentially right along I-95 from Philadelphia to Washington D.C., and also cutting across the wet soil footprint left behind by a soggy 2-week period. We expect to see 2.0 inch PW in the pre convective environment, and note that the NAM Nest produces spotty 3-inch per hour rain rates today. That model frequently produces 2.0 to 2.50 inch rain rates, but rates of 3 are fairly rare in the model. This seems entirely plausible given the moisture, instability, and mean 0-6 km winds of only zero to five knots. Although there is not enough shear for well organized storms or training, the individual cells should be very robust and efficient, as well as nearly stationary. The flash flood threat may only last for about 4 hours, give or take, along the urban corridor, beginning around 17Z, but within that short period there may be some significant flash flooding.

Yikes PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 556 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2020 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0554 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 WNW MANASSAS PARK 38.78N 77.47W 08/12/2020 CITY OF MANASSAS VA 911 CALL CENTER ROAD CLOSED DUE TO A SINKHOLE AT THE INTERSECTION OF MOSEBY CT. AND MOSEBY DR.

LWX seems the total opposite in their morning AFD if I am reading what you posted right

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 407 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... West central Fairfax County in northern Virginia... The City of Manassas Park in northern Virginia... Central Prince William County in northern Virginia... The City of Manassas in northern Virginia... * Until 800 AM EDT. * At 406 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the area. Up to three inches of rain have already fallen. Rain of one to two inches is expected in the next hour. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Heavy rain producing flash flooding. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses. * Some locations that may experience flooding include... Centreville... Linton Hall... Bull Run... Manassas... Sudley... Manassas Park...

What model shows 60s for highs?