yoda

SPC morning Day 2 has moved SLGT risk south some... it is now just north of a Harrisonburg, VA to EZF line.... 2/15/15

An excellent choice

Is it bad that I immediately thought of the scene between Darth Vader and Lando on Bespin in The Empire Strikes Back?

So looks like we probably have 2 chances then... Wednesday afternoon into night and then again Friday afternoon

Afternoon AFD from LWX discussing severe for Wed to Fri time period:

FYI in case this wasn't posted earlier: PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1053 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2020 ...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT... ...SUSPENSION OF OBSERVATIONS AT NWS AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVATION SYSTEM AT BALTIMORE MD INNER HARBOR... THE NWS HAS BEEN NOTIFIED THAT CONSTRUCTION AFFECTING THE GROUNDS AROUND THE NWS AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVATION SYSTEM (ASOS) BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (KDMH) IS PROGRESSING, AND OUR EQUIPMENT NEEDS TO BE REMOVED FOR A TIME. THE SUSPENSION OF KDMH OBSERVATIONS IS SCHEDULED TO BEGIN ON TUESDAY JUNE 2, 2020. DATA WILL BE LISTED AS MISSING IN THE DAILY CLIMATE REPORT (CLIDMH) AND PRELIMINARY MONTHLY CLIMATE DATA (CF6DMH). WE WILL PROVIDE MORE INFORMATION ABOUT RESTORATION OF THE EQUIPMENT AND OBSERVATION WHEN WE RECEIVE IT FROM THE CONSTRUCTION COMPANY. CONSTRUCTION AT JOSEPH H. RASH MEMORIAL PARK ON BALTIMORE'S INNER HARBOR WILL IMPACT THE NWS AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVATION SYSTEM (ASOS) BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR MARYLAND (KDMH) STATION LOCATED THERE. TO ALLOW FOR SITE WORK, THE KDMH ASOS SENSORS NEED TO BE REMOVED AND STORED UNTIL CONSTRUCTION IS COMPLETED. AFTER THE CONSTRUCTION IS COMPLETED, KDMH WILL BE RE-ESTABLISHED WITHIN RASH MEMORIAL PARK.

Has this mainly been on the NAM? Or has the GFS and EURO been having the same? And those are some large matches by hail size... probably helped by the eastward moving EML with between 7.5 and 8.0 C/KM mid level Lapse rates

Well I hope people aren't expecting 2012 to be walking through the door... cause that's just silly

I consider low to mid 90s a hot air mass with DPs near 70

Will be interesting to see what the Day 3 SPC OTLK looks like

00z NAM showing ML Lapse Rates around 7.0 C/KM for Wednesday afternoon into the evening

Evening AFD update confirms what @WxUSAF posted above... guess maybe?

I would love for it to make it and see a quick storm... but I guess well see... SPC did leave us in SLGT in the 0100 OTLK and disco did mention region has 1500 to 2000 MLCAPE available

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20000809 All the watches, MCDs, and text products issued during the day... plus storm reports as well

Should be in the SPC archives ETA: @George BM beat me to it

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0758.html Mesoscale Discussion 0758 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Fri May 29 2020 Areas affected...Northern Mid Atlantic Coast region Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 291627Z - 291730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may develop across the Poconos and Catskills vicinity as early as the next hour or or so, with a more general increase and intensification of thunderstorm during the 3-5 PM EDT time frame. With strongest storms expected to pose at least a risk for severe wind and hail, one or more severe weather watches seems probable. DISCUSSION...Insolation within a seasonably moist boundary layer (surface dew points around/above 70F) is contributing to moderately large CAPE on the order of 1000-2000+ J/kg, within deepening surface troughing to the lee of the Appalachians. Mid-level flow remains broadly anticyclonic, however deepening convective development is underway aided by orography, particularly across the Poconos into Catskills vicinity. As a short wave trough accelerates northeast of the middle Ohio Valley/central Appalachians region, mid-level flow appears likely to trend increasingly cyclonic across northern Virginia through eastern New York state. This should contribute to an environment increasingly conducive to thunderstorm initiation and intensification. A coinciding strengthening of southwesterly mid-level flow (30-50 kt around 500 mb), will provide sufficient shear for organizing lines and clusters of storms, with isolated discrete supercells also possible. At least some of this activity will pose a risk for large hail, potentially damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two. ..Kerr/Grams.. 05/29/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX..

Severe tstorm watch coming soon for C VA into C PA

From the SPC 4-8 day OTLK disco:

2/15/15 on the new Day 1 OTLK

Hopefully all went well and you are doing better

This looks fun

00z HRRR has some morning activity between 09z and 11z coming up from the south into DC metro... nothing severe... but might make for quite a soupy airmass in the morning as the sun appears... waiting for the rest of the run to see what happens in the afternoon around here ETA: Nothing really through 23z so far... kinda surprised tbh

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Lincoln IL 720 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020 The National Weather Service in Lincoln has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Central Moultrie County in central Illinois... * Until 745 PM CDT. * At 717 PM CDT, a confirmed landspout tornado was located south of Dalton City, or about 3 miles northwest of Bethany, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...Very weak or landspout tornadoes. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed landspout tornado. IMPACT...Expect damage to mobile homes, roofs, and vehicles. * The tornado will be near... Bethany around 720 PM CDT. Sullivan and Lovington around 735 PM CDT.