yoda
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Everything posted by yoda
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00z NAM and 3km NAM sim radar look interesting around 03z/04z MON... I guess some sort of an MCS? Both 00z WRF-ARW and 00z WRF-ARW2 keep majority of storms down by EZF 00z WRF-NMM looks more like the NAM twins but is an hour or 2 faster 00z HRDRPS looks fun DC south
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18z NAM soundings at KIAD for 00z MON and 03z MON looked pretty good to me... decent SBCAPE and shear... would suggest that the WF or west to east front is somewhere in C MD Sim radar didnt look too bad on either of the 18z NAMs or RGEM... 18z long range HRRR did suggest though that the front is in N VA as it has best storms just south of me toward EZF
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00z 12km NAM looks decent... has what looks to be a complex of storms (MCS?) Roll through the DC metro region around 03z MON 00z 3km NAM NEST looks intriguing from 00z to 04z MON... looks like a sup comes rumbling down i66 corridor from 02z to 04z
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Dont forget that the Blue Angels and Thunderbirds are flying over the Baltimore and DC metro region tomorrow between 1130 am and 1215pm to honor first responders and essential workers... flyover flight plans are in the link below https://wtop.com/local/2020/05/blue-angels-and-thunderbirds-to-soar-above-dc-baltimore-in-tribute-to-essential-workers/
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Ah, ping pong ball hail to maybe golf ball then... guess our ML Lapse rates are good enough?
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I think it will depend on where the front (warm front?) sets up shop... could maybe be an isolated tornado if it rides the west to east front? And big hailers are what to you? The usual quarter to half dollar size around here or bigger?
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12z EPS mean... looks like it could get frosty some nights if right
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12z Euro 850 temp anomalies are 5 to 15 degrees below normal Days 8 to 10... nice 12z EPS mean even colder... -10 to -15 850 temp anomalies day 6 to day 10
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Wish I could see it... socked in with clouds
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Too bad this isn't January afternoon AFD from LWX
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And apparently it didn't reach 80 degrees at KIAD or KBWI in April... first time since 1997 https://mobile.twitter.com/NWS_BaltWash/status/1255596684026892289
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LWX didn't seem to agree with your take in their tweet half an hour ago https://mobile.twitter.com/NWS_BaltWash/status/1255657936128315395
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Southerly flow... wind gusts of 30 to 40 expected tonight per the AFD
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Yup... 70 percent chance of below normal
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Well sun is nice... but 55 to 65 degrees sucks. Its May, not October
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Not looking forward to after Sunday as LWX AFD says temps go back into upper 50s and low 60s with more rain
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1 mile south of Plano per SWS
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Trained spotters reported egg sized hail in Eastland
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What is CONSALL guidance? LWX evening AFD update mentions it... never heard of it before
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Sounds like LWX is holding off the issuance of any FW/FFW until the early morning update (the 3/4 am time period)
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https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29107732/orioles-trey-mancini-says-colon-cancer-stage-3-faces-six-months-chemo
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I hope Baltimore Orioles player Mancini recovers fully... what a story.
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10% tor added on 1300 SPC OTLK for eastern Oklahoma into W AR
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Looks like by the weekend we may see a change if the forecast stays... 70 to 75 degrees and some sun
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ENH risk on new day 2... 30% hatched hail in C OK and 30% hatched wind in TX/OK/W AR with talk of widespread damaging winds and some potentially significant
