yoda

00z CMC is 3-6" of rain area-wide pretty much through 00z SAT... 00z GFS looks similar, but has 2-4 along i95 and 3-6 isolated 8 out towards i81

DIT is going to be very unhappy lol

DIT is prepared for moderate risk and big tors tomorrow

Cause I can be. And it's always fun to read how amped up you are

EF1 isn't a big tor lol

@nj2va approves of those temps

Lovely... sounds great

No warm weather for you!

Will he post about his fake tornado?

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Wed May 13 2020 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern and central Plains this afternoon through tonight. The greatest threat for numerous severe wind gusts and perhaps some very large hail will be across parts of west Texas and western Oklahoma. ...Southern Plains... West to southwest mid-level flow will be in place today across the western half of the nation as a shortwave trough moves through the flow into the southern High Plains. At the surface, a low will deepen in eastern Colorado as a surface trough and dryline become more focused in the southern High Plains. A moist airmass will advect northward from the lower Rolling Plains into the southeast Texas Panhandle this afternoon where surface dewpoints appear likely to reach the lower 60s F. As surface heating takes place, moderate instability will develop to the east of the dryline from west Texas into the eastern Texas Panhandle and eastward across much of the Red River Valley. The shortwave trough is timed to reach the dryline in the late afternoon, which combined with increasing low-level convergence, should result in scattered convective initiation from near Amarillo northeastward into the northeastern Texas Panhandle. These storms will move eastward into the enhanced risk area during the late afternoon and early evening. Additional thunderstorms will develop south-southwestward across west Texas during the late afternoon. RAP forecast soundings to the east of the dryline by late afternoon show nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates below 700 mb with MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. This combined with 0-6 km shear of 40 to 50 kt will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with supercells that develop intense cores, from western Oklahoma and the eastern Texas Panhandle south-southwestward into the Pecos River Valley. As cell coverage increases during the late afternoon and early evening, it appears a broken line segment will organize and move eastward into western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Wind damage will be likely along the leading edge of the line segment. A few tornadoes will be possible with the more dominant supercells as well. The enhanced risk area has been adjusted to account for a further west position of the dryline.

SPC now saying deep layer shear will be in the 40 to 50 kt range with supercells likely with very large hail and a few tornadoes possible in the more dominant and intense sups... this is in the new Day 1 outlook for today

VA is opening partially... N VA will not open for another 2 weeks -- https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/northern-virginia-can-delay-reopening-through-at-least-may-28-governor-says/2300290/

I dunno... 12z GFS 2mT would suggest that the BDCF is somewhere nearby early next week ETA: did you forget the word like?

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Tue May 12 2020 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK AND FAR NORTHWEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern Plains Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. ...Southern/Central Plains... Cool and dry continental air mass will stretch from the northern High Plains eastward into the Southeast States with its southwestern periphery over the central Plains. Strong air-mass modification that began on Tuesday will continue Wednesday with low-level moisture surging northward into the central Plains. The strongest moisture advection (and resulting air-mass modification) will occur over the southern Plains and into eastern KS. Much of northern OK and eastern KS will likely begin the day with temperatures and dewpoints in the upper 40s to mid 50s. However, by early Wednesday afternoon, the expectation is for mid 60s dewpoints and temperatures in the mid to upper 70s to be near the KS/OK border. Strong frontal wedge will likely remain in place across much of western and central KS until late Wednesday afternoon. The surface pattern Wednesday afternoon is forecast to consist of a low over southeast CO with a dryline arcing southeastward into southwest KS and then back southwestward through TX Permian Basin. Convective initiation is anticipated along this dryline, with forcing for ascent augmented by a weak shortwave trough expected to move through the southern High Plains during the afternoon/evening. Thermodynamic profiles ahead of the dryline will be characterized by a moist but well-mixed boundary layer beneath a well-developed EML with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 9 deg C per KM. The result is a strongly unstable environment with MLCAPE likely from 2500 to 3000 J/kg. Kinematic profiles will likely show moderate low-level directional shear but relatively weak mid-level flow. This type of environment is expected to favor strong/severe storms with robust downdrafts, with the weak mid-level flow precluding strong enough deep-layer vertical shear for healthy mid-level rotation. Given the strong instability, initial development will be intense enough to produce large hail (some very large) before then transitioning to one or more linear segments. Cold-pool amalgamation could result in a strong convective line which may then move into portions of central OK and north-central/central TX. Tornado threat will likely be limited by the quick linear transition, but given the strong buoyancy and favorable low-level shear, a few are still possible. Later Wednesday night, elevated thunderstorms are expected to develop over north-central/northeast KS and adjacent portions of southeast NE, southwest IA, and northwest MO north of the warm front Wednesday night, as the low-level jet strengthens and low-level moisture continues to surge northward. Hail will be the primary severe threat with these storms.

SPC goes ENH risk for new Day 2... but for wind. sig hail contour remains quite large though

Largest hail you will see this year... sorry

so 1/4"... standard in NE for hail size

For those that want to look at the 5/31/2008 event - https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20080531 ETA -- 120 hours would be the weekend, yes? Saturday or Sunday? And could you link me to the CIPS severe again? I lost my link

And all 3 were hail to the size of peas

Another night of a frost advisory... I think we've had more frost/freeze products in May then we had in October or November last year

Things... but I'd rather not get into it and derail this further. Rather keep this thread banter related... like how the Capitals suck

If you live in Binghamton... article says not in Western New York. Perhaps later maybe... nice to see snow in Buffalo today though

And people who are just posting stuff to get a rise out of others and cause trouble. Why don't you go back to posting about it at the political forum? Oh wait...