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yoda

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  1. yoda
    12z HRRR at super long range aka end of its run is a direct hit with the MCS... pretty impressive UD Helicity swath as well for that far out
  2. yoda
    12z NAM drops MCS through SE PA and NE MD at 45-51 hours out... but what is that at 45 and 48 hours on its western flank?
  3. yoda
    I've moved on to the MCS threat Monday night into Tuesday morning... and um... the 00z NAM and 06z NAM are very concerning
  4. yoda
    2/5/5 on new DAY 2 OTKLK... but disco is interesting ...Midwest into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic... Neutral to rising mid-level heights are forecast over much of the Midwest into the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic as an upper ridge builds slowly eastward, and as an upper trough lifts northward into New England and Quebec. There is still a considerable amount of uncertainty with where/if robust thunderstorms may develop Sunday afternoon. A surface front draped from northern IL/IN into OH/PA may serve as a focus for possible convective initiation. Eastern portions of the Midwest into the OH Valley may have a slightly better chance for thunderstorms, as a low-level temperature inversion/cap should be weaker with eastward extent across these regions. Moderate to strong instability will likely be in place along/south of the front Sunday afternoon, as rich low-level moisture characterized by mid/upper 60s to low/mid 70s surface dewpoints will be present. A belt of enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow should also be in place on the northern periphery of the upper ridge. Given the degree of deep-layer shear forecast, any thunderstorms that develop could become supercellular and pose an isolated threat for severe hail and damaging wind gusts. Although low-level flow is not expected to be overly strong, it may be sufficient for modest low-level rotation and a brief tornado or two. Have opted to expand the Marginal Risk across the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic since there is still large spread among model guidance with placement and coverage of convection Sunday afternoon/evening. If a more focused corridor of severe potential becomes evident, then greater severe probabilities would be needed given the favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment.
  5. yoda
    00z HRRR would be entertaining
  6. yoda
    (location is in Western Fauquier County)
  7. yoda
  8. yoda
    FWIW, 18z NAM NEST bringing the UD Helicity Swaths across the region Sunday evening
  9. yoda
    That escalated quickly for Sunday
  10. yoda
    18z NAM trying to advect in a piece of an EML looks like at the end of its run
  11. yoda
    I think we see a SLGT risk introduced on the morning Day 2 tomorrow for most of the region into PHL CWA
  12. yoda
    @weatherwiz
  13. yoda
    12z NAM has me intrigued for Sunday evening looking at the soundings... 1500-2000 SBCAPE and MLCAPE ETA -- in fact, decent tornado potential in them too lol... though the hodos aren't exactly large and curved... but would be enough with low LCL heights, decent SRH at both levels (150+), and decent MLCAPE in the 0-3km layer. Supercell potential is near 80% at DCA at 00z MON with EHI around 3
  14. yoda
    Hmmm
  15. yoda
    Wouldn't mind that look on the 00z EPS out in the future for MCS chances and NW flow event possibilities
  16. yoda
    Beautiful morning
  17. yoda
    Kinda surprised to see Day 3 MRGL risk for Sunday
  18. yoda
    Seems LWX in their afternoon AFD have same idea as you lol... but they do add caveats Behind the weak frontal passage, high pressure is forecast to build over the region as the upper ridge to the west shift eastward toward our region. The weather for the early and middle parts of next week has some uncertainty at this time due to the strength and position of the ridge axis . A strong ridge is forecast to build into parts of our region. Depending on the positioning of the ridge, shortwave energy passing over the ridge and dropping into our region could combine with some modest Shear/instability to produce a potential MCS in the late Monday to Wednesday period. If the ridge shifts overhead, the region will likely remain dry and see an enhanced warming trend. If the ridge is further westward, the region could remain relatively stable but if the ridge is positioned in just right position, we could see shortwave energy pass over the ridge and drop into our region. A combination of a southerly flow at the surface along with a northwest flow aloft could lead to an unstable environment and combine with the lift from the shortwave to bring an organized MCS into our system. We will need to monitor the strength and position of the ridge over the next few days
  19. yoda
    @Eskimo Joe @George BM @Kmlwx From this mornings AFD... sounds tasty lol Upper-level high pressure will build over the Tennessee Valley and into the Great Lakes Monday through Wednesday while the upper-level trough slides to our north and east, centering itself over the western Atlantic. A northwest flow aloft is expected in between these systems, and a surface boundary will likely remain stalled out over our area during this time. Warmer conditions are expected due to rising heights, but with the northwest flow aloft and the boundary in place, this may trigger some showers and thunderstorms. Details remain uncertain, but the better chance for storms may be Tuesday and Wednesday.
  20. yoda
  21. yoda
    Some decent hail cores showing up on storms moving into DC metro
  22. yoda
    Flood Watch up now for just about everyone
  23. yoda
  24. yoda
    Well that escalated quickly on the 18z NAM soundings
  25. yoda
    So Wednesday evening into Wednesday night looks interesting per afternoon LWX AFD The cold front approaching from the west is forecast to pass through our region sometime late Tuesday evening and into Wednesday. There remains some uncertainty on the timing of the frontal passage and how far south of our region it will sink on Wednesday. Based on current guidance, the front should pass fully through the region during Wednesday morning. The GFS and Euro models have the front stalling just south of our region on Wednesday while the NAM moves the front further southward along the NC/VA border. This difference in location will be a big factor for precipitation during the day on Wednesday. The more southern solution for the NAM, means a strong westerly flow is able to form which will keep most of our region dry during the day while the GFS/Euro solutions would mean our region could see continued chances for showers. Went middle ground with Pops and kept mainly chance/low end likely pops for Wednesday. The big question for Wednesday evening will be how far north the front is able to move as it returns northward. As the front lifts northward, a surface low is forecast to form along the boundary as an upper level shortwave passes overhead. The GFS and Euro are more progressive with the northward propagation of the front while the NAM keeps the boundary overhead of our region Wednesday evening. It seems the differing solutions will mean the difference between an increased SVR threat and increased flood threat. The GFS and Euro would mean a bigger SVR threat due to increased CAPE and shear along the boundary. The NAM solution on the other hand would mean a bigger flood threat. Both the 6z and 12Z NAM are highlighting areas south of I-66 for the potential for rain amounts of 2 to 5 inches in a 12 hour period. We should have a better idea of the overall threat for SVR and flood once Wednesday moves into the range of the high- Res guidance.
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