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Dunkman

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  1. Dunkman
    Unfortunately this heavier band is all ZR so far in N High Point. I was really hoping for some sleet.
  2. Dunkman
    It's important to note that this isn't an in situ event. It doesn't really matter whether clouds roll in at the right (or wrong) time to lock in warmth or let it escape. This will ultimately be controlled by air that the high pressure funnels into the region. Considering my winds are out of the SE right now I'm not really sure what impacts the current dewpoints are going to ultimately have.
  3. Dunkman
    All of the above. But I wouldn’t rule out warning criteria ice either. It looks like I may be living in front of the fireplace for a few days.
  4. Dunkman
    It tries to. I still have real questions about accrual if it’s gonna be 50 degrees at 850mb. We’ve had numerous potential ZR events bust over the years due to heavy rates and stout warm noses.
  5. Dunkman
    RAH is somewhat more aggressive with the totals into NC.
  6. Dunkman
    Yeah the ICON shows ZR and sleet as rain. I’d imagine those bright returns near the snow line in VA are sleet and all the rest is ZR.
  7. Dunkman
    Only about 10% of High Point electric customers are still without power now after hitting 50% late this morning. I feel very fortunate to have only lost it for a couple hours.
  8. Dunkman
    Eek, still holding on here near Barrow road. Looks like about half of the 40k High Point energy customers are out as of now.
  9. Dunkman
    That’s definitely just raw model output.
  10. Dunkman
    I don’t know what to think about that. The NAM has been far too dry at times with multiple systems in the last month.
  11. Dunkman
    If I didn’t have falling trees to worry about them probably. I rooted for hurricanes growing up on the coast as well. That would be one heck of a sleet storm if the soundings are right. I remember getting about 1.5” of qpf as sleet a few years ago and it was wild. We ended up with like a 20” iceberg on the back deck from where the sleet would funnel down the roof.
  12. Dunkman
    I would hope a lot of us could sleet in northern NC if there’s ZR in Macon Georgia but who knows.
  13. Dunkman
    Yeah no way that happens with that look. I can’t speak for anyone else but I’m gonna fire up the generator this week and make sure it’s working.
  14. Dunkman
    That big bright band over Guilford is like 90% sleet. On the plus side it’s put a nice icy coating on things if we can get some snow.
  15. Dunkman
    Plz to not be jinxing the event before I change over. Thanks.
  16. Dunkman
    Based on what I’ve seen from observations roughly anywhere inside the 1 degree 925mb line seems to be mostly snow or at least frozen.
  17. Dunkman
    I feel really bad for the people in the upstate who have to watch the HRRR slowly take their nice band of snow away run by run today.
  18. Dunkman
    The NAM is really good at showing every possible solution over the course of a couple days regardless of how based in reality they may or may not be.
  19. Dunkman
    It’ll get here at the end of March like it always does. Seriously though as has been said the cold holding back like this is not at all unusual. And it does usually get here eventually. It’s just torture after some of the runs this week.
  20. Dunkman
    This is another miss in the Triad. Such a rough winter. I’ve seen snow half a dozen times and it hasn’t totaled a half inch.
  21. Dunkman
    The HRRR could be right of course. That said it’s shown very little skill outside of 6-8 hours this winter from what I’ve seen. I wouldn’t worry too much.
  22. Dunkman
    Why do you say that? At least in central NC it’s pretty typical.
  23. Dunkman
    Yeah the 3k NAM cut back on what it was showing in central NC for tomorrow as well. I think there will be flurries flying around but that may be about it.
  24. Dunkman
    That band in the mountains looks really stout if you user a higher tilt from GSP. (You can see all the snow that’s falling but not making it to the ground.)
  25. Dunkman
    I found some slides on FRAM which were mostly what I was looking for. One interesting thing is there wasn't much evidence of temps below -2C helping with ice accrual. At that point it seemed like rates and even wind were bigger factors. https://vlab.ncep.noaa.gov/documents/10157/137122/FRAM_VLAB_Presentation.pdf/50ff7877-c52d-80f4-1413-b294db7710e9
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