Dunkman
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Everything posted by Dunkman
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RAH with 8-12 for GSO and 1-2 for Raleigh...I guess that's about right for the last few years. You may have a much better city but at least we get the snow!
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Seems to maybe do better in the MA and points north? It has done well here too but took it on the chin from the NAM in a couple recent events.
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Nah, for everyone. It was a much better look than 12z and 18z and what we really needed was just for it to stop trending in the wrong direction. I mean I guess the ice isn't a look everyone wants but just as far as having a winter storm we were another couple NAM warmups away from this being all rain outside of the mountains.
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We got like a dusting in the triad iirc. I'm pretty sure I went and did a trail run in it and it had all melted by the time I got out of the shower.
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Modeling was consistent for the most part and RAH went from 1-2 in the Triad to 10+ in, what, a day? Less than a day? Yeah that makes sense. Whatever, bring on the storm!
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I mean the Triad had a couple years recently in which we had more inches of sleet than snow on the season. I'd never count out a raging sleet storm, especially in a CAD event. Just historically in these very mixed events we (again, piedmont triad) usually seem to end up with snow at the beginning and end, something like 4-8", and then a bunch of crap in the middle. The sum total of the guidance so far seems (to me at least) to fit with that general narrative.
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Sounds like a lot of pingers which I am definitely concerned about. Good for sledding I guess.
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I've heard a lot of people (mets) say that over the years. And then we mix.
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I'm not going to pretend to have a better feel for this than RAH does but I did find it kind of interesting that they opened saying it looked like a significant winter storm and then proceeded to forecast conditions that are very much not significant for the region.
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If we were ever gonna stop living and dying with every model run it would have happened by now.
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Yeah I need to get new sleds for my kids tomorrow so if she (and the other local mets) could be conservative until tomorrow evening that would be perfect.
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There isn't even an eyewall left at this point so I'd say definitely not.
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Upper level wind shear sending dry air into the southern half of the system.
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We spent days thinking this wouldn't be the usual east coast half a cane on approach and, umm, oops?
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What do you think about the coastline perhaps providing some friction to help Florence tighten up a bit? Seems like we've seen that happen in the past.
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You may see one at 11 if this is all recon finds.
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On the last recon pass they measured category 2 surface winds 50 miles north from the center. I think pretty much every model has the storm getting that close or closer to Jacksonville at some point.
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The surge is going to be held in place by relentless onshore winds for days it seems in certain places.
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I mean right now you have 111mph flight level winds 110 miles north of the center. And the hurricane force wind radii seem to only be expanding. I certainly think they're trying to be proactive but I wouldn't call it ridiculous with a storm this size. Strong rain bands can absolutely mix those winds down to the surface at times.
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I didn't expect this storm to get the classic east coast comma shape with weaker/drier west and south sides but it certainly looks to be taking on that appearance. Maybe it's just temporary but it could be tough to maintain cat 4 with that structure.
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Well highest SFMR on the first pass was 101 kts. FL was a little better at 126 but Florence may have trouble maintaining cat 4 now with the expanded wind field.
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I know it's a fairly new product but that's still really freaking ominous.
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12z UK went well north of Wilmington.
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It doesn't look like any models really want to strengthen the storm much from here on in which would certainly be a blessing. That said, satellite is looking better all the time.
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GFS and getting a clue 3 days late. Name a more iconic duo.
