Yeah the SSTs support at least a category higher than normal, probably more than that in spots. Strong category 3 is usually the worst case scenario for NC but I'm not sure that's the case this time.
So I shouldn't say this but as soon as I saw reports of 6" from CHS the first thing I thought was how long has it been since Raleigh had 6" of snow? Was it this decade?
Beam height. It's not snowing anywhere near the surface to your west.
The 0.5° scan is 3000 feet above the surface in Sanford, which is the closest location to the radar site that's actually showing a return.
So how about all those storms over the years that were supposed to jackpot the Triad and Triangle and miss SW VA only to have Roanoke jackpot every single time? Why can't that happen when I'm supposed to be too far NW? Just once?
Jokes aside I'm pretty glad that I don't have to sweat this one out. Looks extra stressful even by NC winter storm standards.
I haven't had a chance to look at the HRRR in depth but one thing I noticed briefly flipping through the mesoscale models is that through 21z Friday it's fairly substantially drier than all of the other models. This is true pretty much everywhere but especially as you go N and W from the heaviest totals.
You should always worry about sleet. I've had more sleet than snow the last 5 years. And I'm not talking liquid equivalent either. Actual ground measurements. 2 days ago I saw a model with snow at Disney World and now the NW Piedmont of NC is close enough to smell the sleet on the NAM. You're never safe!