Dunkman
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Everything posted by Dunkman
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I have a feeling everyone who isn't in the mountains or Virginia is gonna end up here before we're done. As for us in the triad, I really don't like being a few miles from disaster on both the NAM and RGEM.
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Absolutely. As you know I'm sure, it can always sleet here. We've had mostly IP storms when the models never even hinted at mixing until in the short range.
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Looks like the RGEM is what, at least 75 miles north of any other guidance with the heaviest precipitation? Definitely an outlier, however given our history of NW trends as a storm approaches and the RGEM's reputation I certainly wouldn't completely discount it.
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Yeah 1.39 ZR = be prepared to not have power for a week. There's going to be an unlucky ice zone it seems, just hope it isn't that large and doesn't last that long.
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I'm also expecting our usual 6-8 with a little of everything mixed in. This doesn't feel like an all snow setup. Or even mostly snow.
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RAH with 8-12 for GSO and 1-2 for Raleigh...I guess that's about right for the last few years. You may have a much better city but at least we get the snow!
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Seems to maybe do better in the MA and points north? It has done well here too but took it on the chin from the NAM in a couple recent events.
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Nah, for everyone. It was a much better look than 12z and 18z and what we really needed was just for it to stop trending in the wrong direction. I mean I guess the ice isn't a look everyone wants but just as far as having a winter storm we were another couple NAM warmups away from this being all rain outside of the mountains.
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We got like a dusting in the triad iirc. I'm pretty sure I went and did a trail run in it and it had all melted by the time I got out of the shower.
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Modeling was consistent for the most part and RAH went from 1-2 in the Triad to 10+ in, what, a day? Less than a day? Yeah that makes sense. Whatever, bring on the storm!
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I mean the Triad had a couple years recently in which we had more inches of sleet than snow on the season. I'd never count out a raging sleet storm, especially in a CAD event. Just historically in these very mixed events we (again, piedmont triad) usually seem to end up with snow at the beginning and end, something like 4-8", and then a bunch of crap in the middle. The sum total of the guidance so far seems (to me at least) to fit with that general narrative.
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Sounds like a lot of pingers which I am definitely concerned about. Good for sledding I guess.
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I've heard a lot of people (mets) say that over the years. And then we mix.
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I'm not going to pretend to have a better feel for this than RAH does but I did find it kind of interesting that they opened saying it looked like a significant winter storm and then proceeded to forecast conditions that are very much not significant for the region.
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If we were ever gonna stop living and dying with every model run it would have happened by now.
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Yeah I need to get new sleds for my kids tomorrow so if she (and the other local mets) could be conservative until tomorrow evening that would be perfect.
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The situation with the Dan River in Danville is truly awful tonight. It's a foot over the record now with no real signs of being near a crest.
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RAH finally sounding the alarm on the band of heavy wind on the backside in their latest briefing https://www.weather.gov/media/rah/briefing/NWSRaleighLatestBriefing.pdf
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I mean yes it's overdone I don't think anyone is expecting 90mph gusts. But can you rule out 70? Probably not?
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I don't know, I'd certainly think about including the Charlotte metro up through the Triad. People here have done absolutely nothing to prepare in any way. Should be interesting tomorrow.
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Oh they've found 130 knots in the last half hour. Classic rapid intensification going on tonight. Best hope now I guess is that it peaks and begins to weaken before landfall.
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Yeah with the enhancement from the front it looks like there will be a huge area of TS winds north of the track.
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It says in the freaking title of the thread "no saying the storm isn't that bad plz." We aren't here for your spicy hot takes. Try harder. -
There isn't even an eyewall left at this point so I'd say definitely not.
