southmdwatcher

Flood Watch again for DC Metro...edit DC/FFX/PG and south and eastward.

Reagan National is supposedly at 100.9F at 2:20 pm as per GREarth.

These are some rather swift developing severe storms. Wow.

22/15/8

That line of strong to severe storms crossing the crest of the Appalachians, in West Virginia is not immediately followed up by any storms as of this moment. Tomorrow could be quite interesting in this region.

Storm Prediction Center May 26, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (noaa.gov) Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...FAR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...FAR SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected from the Ozarks this afternoon and evening to the Ohio and Tennessee Valley tonight. Tornadoes, some strong to intense, and large to very large hail are the primary threats this afternoon and evening with an evolving overnight severe wind/embedded tornado threat tonight. Primary focus of this outlook update was a moderate risk upgrade from south-central Missouri into western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee. An EML has advected across this region in the wake of morning convection which has permitted strong heating and destabilization. The outflow boundary and the destabilized region north of this boundary provide a vorticity rich low-level airmass favorable for tornadoes. Supercells are already starting to develop in the hot and unstable airmass across southwest Missouri and will move toward this vorticity rich airmass this evening. Additionally, a strengthening low-level jet is expected across this area tonight which will elongate low-level hodographs. Most members of the 18Z and 19Z WoFS show several intense, long track supercells through this region later this evening with increased 0-2km UH probabilities, giving more supporting evidence for the rapidly evolving tornado threat. Given the aforementioned factors, several strong to intense tornadoes are possible this evening. See MCD #980 for additional information about the evolving threat in this region. Eventually, these supercells will likely congeal into an MCS which amid extreme instability, strong shear, and steep lapse rates, will likely have a significant wind threat into the late evening and early overnight hours. In addition, added a small marginal risk across southwest South Dakota and northern North Dakota where a few stronger storms have developed amid weak instability and moderate shear. See MCD 982 for additional information about this threat. ..Bentley.. 05/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024/ ...Ozarks/Arklatex to Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and south-central Appalachians... Ongoing/long-lived bowing complex, with a history of measured severe gusts and wind damage, continues to move east across central KY/northern TN at 16z. The downstream environment continues to destabilize as diurnal heating of upper 60s/near 70 def F dewpoints continues, and this complex is expected to continue moving east through this afternoon while maintaining a risk for damaging gusts and embedded QLCS circulations. In the wake of this convective system, a pronounced theta-e gradient has become established from northern TN westward, becoming more diffuse over southern MO, where strong heating is occurring. Severe thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop this afternoon across southern MO within a strongly sheared environment characterized by 50 kts of westerly shear, and strong MLCAPE. Supercell structures should be the dominant convective mode for several hours, with a risk for all severe hazards including very large hail and strong tornadoes. The convective system may congeal with time into more of a linear structure, with a risk for all hazards continuing into the overnight hours within an amply-sheared and moderately unstable environment. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded farther south over portions of northern MS/AL/far northwest GA based on 12z HREF calibrated guidance.

Don't know at all if this will impact our chances tomorrow, but SPC just upgraded western KY/TN into Missouri and Arkansas to Moderate for tornadoes, and the enhanced(10 percent hatched area) VERY significantly increased in areal coverage into northern AL/MS and all of KY/TN into far southwest VA.

Well lets end up with 10 percent hatched, 30 and 30

Needs to be a 330am alarm.....Sunrise/twilight comes in from the east too quickly if one only ventures out at 430am

Drove to central St. Mary's county. What a nice display. Sheets and pillars visible to the naked eye and the night shot on camera got the vivid colors.

This is already at a level 4 severe geomagnetic storm and KP8. Could be quite an interesting weekend for viewing, if we can bust these clouds outta here.

Tornado Emergency Sherwood storm

Significant CC drop as the storm passed by Centreville

Are you referring to the VTP(Violent Tornado Parameter)? That is listed under composite indices now. It started out on the beta column.

There will be some semi-discrete and discrete storms in southern Kansas and Oklahoma. Just a matter of how many.

0.92 so far for the event. More rain incoming from the southwest.

New tornado watch issued until 1am up through central VA to near Fredericksburg and Richmond.

Yeah, that couplet was passing north of Blacksburg along the ridge and had a CC drop as well.

The new SPC outlook has pushed the 5 percent Tornado risk eastward to western Montgomery County, Dulles AIrport and down through VA just west of I95 south of Richmond

Large CC drop near King William VA from Wakefield radar

1.18" so far and pouring at this time.

Significant overperforming event across Indiana and Ohio this evening, storms heading our way for scraps tomorrow.

The maximum snowfall totals for sure were in southern Maryland. Eastern Charles County over to Calvert County and were over 30 inches. With the wind and drifting, we never got the exact maximum total.

January 25, 2000, is the greatest surprise snow event in the last 40 years. My memory is that we and the whole Northeast had a busted major storm/blizzard. After the busted blizzard, the weather was fine, but there was an outbreak of thunderstorms across the Southeast on the 24th. The weather forecast was still not indicating snow for the Mid Atlantic. However, THE sign was friends of mine from Charlotte NC, calling me early that afternoon on January 25, 2000, saying they were supposed to be 50 degrees with a few showers, and it was snowing heavily, with major accumulation. Radar continued to show the snow moving more northward than northeast. Our forecast was for a few flurries in DC and maybe minor accumulations up to an inch east of DC. Well, early evening the TV's all belted out the Winter Storm Warning's with accumulations of 8 to 12 inches and we still beat that. Still as amazing and surprising as that event was, PD1 on February 19, 1979, absolutely slammed that overnight.

45 years ago today, AND this is still by far the best snow event of my life. Went to bed the night before at 11:30pm after the local TV forecast. We had 4 inches on the ground and the forecast called for another 4 inches. Woke up at 6am to a true intense blizzard. The cars were buried in snow and the houses across the street, less than 100 feet were barely visible for long periods. Drifts came up to nearly our 2nd story windows. One thing that still is etched in my memory, was the cars were totally packed in blowing snow, if one lifted up the hood, the engine area was a block of snow. As a 12 year old we could stand up in the tunnels we dug out in the back yard on the first day. Our street was not plowed, all the people on the street had to help dig out the street, which is only 100 yards from a main road. That was the end of the significant cold for the Winter. Just over a week later all the snow was a memory except the piles.