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southmdwatcher

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Everything posted by southmdwatcher

  1. southmdwatcher
    The upper low that was over San Diego area last night has moved to northern tip of Gulf of California/south of Yuma AZ at the moment.....still looking like this could have the slower timing. Watch how that piece progresses eastward.
  2. southmdwatcher
    0z NAM is bringing the warm sector even further north, on the west side of the Appalachians. 12-15z Monday is looking very stormy around here...mid 60's dew points ML CAPE around 500 and still a significant wind field overhead.
  3. southmdwatcher
    Monday morning is the time frame to be worried about tornadoes and or really severe wind fields, and there is CAPE to work with especially south and west of DC. That assumes the timing of this system does not slow down any further.
  4. southmdwatcher
    If that 925mb GFS wind field ends up verifying and shifts west, that could be a bit of an issue
  5. southmdwatcher
    I know this is way out there for the NAM but it is trending slower and further west and the Euro has also been slower with the Sunday/Monday severe weather event...wherever that is centered.
  6. southmdwatcher
    The sun is going to try to come back, today this is one of the rare events in this region where the sun is not needed but can certainly aid the environment overnight...I am already looking forward to Sunday's event southwest of here and what here could be an overnight storm scenario. Hope the Euro and UK are wrong about Sunday down South.
  7. southmdwatcher
    Well now that is quite a broad area of Slight Risk now for tomorrow. Salisbury to Baltimore to north of Pittsburgh and southwest are now included. 2 Tor 15 Wind 15 Hail for our whole region.
  8. southmdwatcher
    The NFL will be the front runner in the social media community with all that is in front of them to be public.
  9. southmdwatcher
    At this point let's just have a few tornado outbreaks regionwide in the next two months and be done, the pattern is screaming severe weather events if it continues in this manner.
  10. southmdwatcher
    Steady snow now and slush is starting to accumulate on elevated surfaces.
  11. southmdwatcher
    Our region is upgraded to Slight Risk
  12. southmdwatcher
    SPC day 2 did upgrade to Slight risk for a very small corridor. HGR down to DCA east/northeastward to central NJ
  13. southmdwatcher
    We will not have the benefit of good shear for this event, but keep in mind that one of Virginia's best tornado events occurred in August 1993 and was not a tropical induced event.
  14. southmdwatcher
    We have had decent mid level lapse rates(around or just above 7 C/km) for the morning and early afternoon, not enough shear today.
  15. southmdwatcher
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0315.html URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 315 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Western and Central Maryland Southeast Ohio Northern Virginia West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 1255 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon across the watch area, spreading eastward through the afternoon. The strongest cells in this region will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west northwest of Charleston WV to 30 miles north northeast of Patuxent River MD.
  16. southmdwatcher
    Spotter reported tornado over/near Massaponax as per latest warning update
  17. southmdwatcher
    Today seems to be a discrete storm mode, question for us will be if that can occur tomorrow and hold on for an evening Bay breeze or low level jet?
  18. southmdwatcher
    North of Baltimore, and northeastward through Philadelphia to central NJ could have quite a rough evening. Storm mode looks to stay discrete as storms continue to move east southeast towards the areas of best parameters as the day/evening progresses. Tomorrow could be quite a rough day in our area.
  19. southmdwatcher
    6z 3kNAM shows scattered severe storms rolling through our region between 18z and 21z. 9z HRRR run shows similar scenario with more storms. 10z HRRR run was much more quiet. The MCS is in western Ohio and southern Indiana, We should see some decent storms later today.
  20. southmdwatcher
    I am in Alexandria and the sun is trying to break through here right now as well.
  21. southmdwatcher
    74 degrees and breaks of good sun coming north.from Charles County
  22. southmdwatcher
    6Z 3km NAM shows the strongest 850mb winds are running through VA later this afternoon. CAPE of 1000-1500 runs Fredericksburg and then southward.
  23. southmdwatcher
    We shall see what SPC and Sterling have to say over the next few hours. The lapse rates over us now are quite strong. That will move out as we head towards morning. The sun will definitely be out for some period of time tomorrow, just a matter of how long and whether a new batch of prefrontal storms breaks out and squashes any substantial buildup of instability. The timing of the event across AL/MS is slightly quicker than was expected. That throws wrinkles into our forecast tomorrow.
  24. southmdwatcher
    That was from 15Z run of SREF, this is 21Z
  25. southmdwatcher
    Day 3 Slight with Enhanced off to the south.
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