southmdwatcher

The Sterling forecast discussion said that the best opportunity for severe weather would likely be DC/Baltimore and south/eastward across Delmarva/southern MD and central VA. More unstable and time for storms to organize.

Wonderful, LaPlata gets two major cells on that picture, one overhead and another 2 hours out

Thanks...sounds like an event where someone will get rocked. Petersburg VA.F4 tornado and southern VA outbreak/largest tornado outbreak in VA prior to Ivan in September 2004 happened August 6 1993. We shall see how this event progresses.

I apologize I usually look into events, is Sunday a potential severe weather outbreak that.can produce tornadoes and hail greater than we are accustomed to? I saw SPC write up that said the focus should go PA and northward.

4.09" last night, 10.83" since June 1 and 14.96 since May 1st. Loud and sleepless night. Just a couple miles east had well over 6 inches of rain last night.

Radar estimates closing in on 7 inches around Hughesville MD area.

3.35" since 10pm.

SPC had the SVR watch until 11pm. Plenty of time for storms to initiate especially north and east of DC.

Radar already has activity scattered about.....Frederick County MD, Central PA, Shenandoah Valley, approaching far western MD and now approaching I95 west of Stafford/Fredericksburg.

A few months late for Kmlwx. Here are some of the color tables, I use on GR2Analyst. One transparent for BR. Two BV's first one is transparent so it might not show up well enough, second BV is what I use regularly. One SRV and one NROT. Sorry for the length of the color tables.

SPC expanded the marginal risk back to Hagerstown, Elkins and almost to Roanoke.

15-20 k J/kg instability, wow we will all need underground shelters

The storm approaching Winchester is the one to watch.

Well the wind is breaking through the inversion now. Looks like clouds are trying to break apart from south to north in front of the showers.

80 percent chance of a Tornado Watch..

Has there ever been an event with 2 F4/F5 tornadoes that was NOT a High Risk?

I have a transparent BR file and some other SRV/BV files.

Damn southern Mississippi, wow. SPC is actually calling F5 on their meso discussion and debris lofted heights are well over 20k ft.

Euro has an area of 1000-2000 SB CAPE coming into the south side of DC area at 18z too, yeah not! Scratch that 21z information, somehow my F5/EuroWX switched over from Euro information to NAM.

Yeah that 10% hatched boundary looked like it stopped at the Rappahannock River on last nights graphics, it clearly includes southwestern part of Charles County now. So maybe 15 miles more northward. What happens with the QLCS and it's speed will probably have a large impact on our chances of tornadoes.

Is that sounding above showing 0-3km CAPE at 164?

There is a meso low in eastern Texas moving east northeastward with the MCS. That will probably be a large factor in what we see tomorrow.

https://weather.cod.edu/text/ DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1221 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2020 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN GEORGIA...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA... ..SUMMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORNADOES, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY. ..ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAINS/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TONIGHT. THE TROUGH SHOULD BE POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. AT THAT TIME, A 70 TO 80 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA WITH AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY CO-LOCATED WITH THE JET. A BAND OF CONVECTION, POTENTIALLY SEVERE, IS FORECAST TO BE IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA, THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND WESTERN VIRGINIA AT 12Z. OTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. AN 80 TO 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET ORIENTED ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CREATE VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BAND OF CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAINS DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN QUESTION WITH THIS OUTLOOK IS CONVECTIVE MODE. THERE ARE TWO POSSIBILITIES. THE FIRST IS THAT THE BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE DISCRETE ELEMENTS AND GAPS THAT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 15Z FROM SOUTHERN VIRGINIA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA SHOW LOOPED HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES IN THE EXTREME CATOGORY, GENERALLY NEAR OR ABOVE 600 M2/S2. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS. A WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT WOULD BE LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS AND WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS. THE SECOND SCENARIO WOULD BE THAT A SQUALL-LINE IS ONGOING AT 12Z FROM EASTERN GEORGIA NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA. IN THAT CASE, WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE LIKELY. A QLCS TORNADO THREAT WOULD EXIST WITH THE STRONGER BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. HAIL WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE PARTS OF THE LINE. AT THIS TIME, THE OUTLOOK REFLECTS THE FIRST SCENARIO IN WHICH MORE DISCRETE CELLS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AT 12Z. IN THIS CASE, A CLUSTER OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES WOULD BE POSSIBLE AND A STRONG LONG-TRACK TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. ..BROYLES.. 04/12/2020

That will be fluid tomorrow, I expect the northern extent to change again and some portion of the Enhanced area may go to Moderate for tornadoes.

Lapse rates were not great at 18z, but everything else looked primed. Maybe we get another great parameter day that just misses one ingredient. Two rounds of potentially severe storms are quite possible for central and eastern parts of our region.