Roger Smith

I can't see this going truly extratropical before Friday s of SC, but it could be hybrid by 36h. Wasn't there a debate about a possibly too-early call on Sandy being e.t. before NJ landfall? It would only confuse the public who would not get the spreading out wind field concept, personally I think they should retire the whole concept, if it's a hybrid or e.t. storm doing damage then keep issuing advisories until it's not doing damage. Now Kirk is definitely e.t. and has been for 24 ... and it's almost below damage creating criteria (wind gusts in nw Spain were 65-70 on very exposed rocky cliffs and look to be around 60-65 in western France).

Weakening like Tom Brady after 40?

I recall with Katrina there was a 15-20 ft surge (not all of it went into L Pontchartrain but enough did so, to stress the levees). But also I recall a 46' wave report about 30 miles east of the track -- so I would urge people to consider that south of landfall, if the hurricane is still at least cat-3, similar results are possible and 10-15 feet of surge could prove to be conservative, with battering waves on top of a (let's say) 15 to 18 ft surge. I am still leaning towards a relatively northward landfall (Clearwater area) but there's no plausible "good" landfall option at this point.

Japan has taken over tracking Super Typhoon Milton.

I would say track will start to edge slightly north of due east to avoid a landfall on Yucatan but with some of the core scraping along the coast briefly. At some point probably 18-24 hrs from now, possible cat-5 intensity and 910 mb central pressure. Gradually reduces to cat-3 by landfall at a point 25-50 nw of Tampa Bay.

Table of forecasts for October 2024 FORECASTER __________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Stormchaser Chuck ___________ +2.3 _ +2.4 _ +2.2 __ +3.5 _ +1.8 _ +1.7 ___ +5.0 _ +5.3 _ +1.8 hudsonvalley21 ________________ +1.8 _ +1.9 _ +1.8 ___ +1.3 _ +1.4 _ +1.8 ___ +2.2 _ +2.3 _ +0.7 Scotty Lightning ________________+1.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +1.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 __ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 Tom ____________________________ +1.3 _ +1.4 _ +1.4 ___ +0.6 _ +0.7 _+0.9 __ +1.4 _ +1.3 _ +0.6 wxallannj _______________________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +1.5 _ +1.0 _ +2.3 __ +2.7 _ +2.5 _ +1.3 RJay ____________________________+0.8 _ +0.8 _ +0.8 __ +2.3 _ +1.2 _ +2.0 __ +2.5 _ +2.0 _ +1.5 ___ Consensus _________________+0.8 _ +0.9 _ +0.9 __+1.5 _ +0.8 _ +1.6 __+2.4 _ +2.3 _ +1.2 BKViking ________________________+0.8 _ +0.8 _ +0.8 __ +1.0 _ +0.6 _ +1.5 __ +2.5 _ +2.0 _ +1.1 so_whats_happening ___________ +0.6 _ +0.6 _+0.8 ___ +1.5 _ +0.8 _ +1.0 __ +2.1 _ +2.6 _ +1.4 RodneyS ________________________+0.3 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 ___ +2.5 _ -0.1 _ +2.8 ___ +4.2 _ +2.8 _ -0.3 DonSutherland1 _________________+0.3 _ +0.5 _ +0.5 __ +1.8 _ -0.2 _ +1.0 ___ +5.0 _ +5.5 _ +1.5 ___ Normal ______________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 Roger Smith ____________________ -0.5 _ -0.7 _ -0.9 ___ +1.7 _ +0.2 _ +1.0 ___ +2.0 _ +2.2 _ +1.2 wxdude64 ______________________ -0.6 _ +0.4 _ +1.1 ___ -0.9 _ -1.2 _ -0.2 ____ -0.6 _ +1.8 _ -0.3 _____________ ___ Persistence (Sep 2024) _____ +0.1 _ -0.4 _ +0.3 ___ +4.3 _ +1.4 _ +2.2 ___ +5.2 _ +5.4 __ 0.0 =================================== warmest and coldest forecasts color coded. Normal is also coldest for PHX

Milton brings count to 13/8/3 and I edited table above for 13/9/3 as per guidance. (Oct 6 _ count is now 13/9/3 and table is now based on 13/9/4 as guidance strongly suggests further intensification). If season ended 13/9/3 scores would be Retrobuc 98.0 and wkd, tae laidir 97.5. Currently next in scoring is Ed Snow and Hurricane Fan at 90.5; KWx is 86.5 and dww is 88.5. If season ended 13/9/4 scores would be wkd, tae laidir 98.5, and Retrobuc 96.0 13/9/4 _ (Ed Snow and Hurricane Fan at 91.5; KWx is 87.5 and dww is 87.5) Top half of table need more storms to start scoring ... 24 (error 11) storms gives an error deduction of 66 (net score 34) so basically if your forecast was 25 or less and you have a reasonable forecast of H and M, your score is positive. (storm errors count 50% relative to H and M errors) Will get into scoring details later in OCT ... looks like 16/10/4 could be a target, if so, contest winner would be Ed.

Kirk brought count to 11/7/3 and Leslie to 12/7/3, very likely to go (edit now is) 12/8/3 (and probably not 12/8/4) so will edit "rest of season forecast" table several posts back now, based on 12/8/3. Next edit will also go forward to latest post. Edit is now added to post ... Oct 6 _ new edit for Milton (1/1/1 is being added now) ... count will be 13/9/4 Oct 19 _ Nadine, Oscar boost count to 15/10/4. Nov 3 _ Patty to 16/10/4 and edit for PTC 18 being at least a TS, potential count 17/10/4. Nov 6 _ Rafael now brings count to 17/11/5 As a scoring post contains following info, it will now be deleted, see Nov 4 post as edited for updates.

<<< OCTOBER RECORDS for NYC >>> DATE ____ High max ___ High min _____ Low max ___ Low min _________Max prec (r) _ Max 2d rain _ Max snow (10th to 31st) Oct 01 ___ 88 1927 ____ 72 1881, 1954 _ 51 1899 ____ 36 1947 (60) _____4.98 1913 ___ 4.98 1913*__ 2d rain 3.56 2010 (1.10+2.46) Oct 02 ___ 93 2019 ____ 72 1954 ______ 49 1899 ____ 39 1886 (54) _____2.16 1929 ___ 5.28 1913 __ Oct 03 ___ 87 1919 ____ 68 1954, 69 ___47 1888 ____ 38 1888,99,1974 __1.84 1869 ___ 2.16 1929**_ Oct 04 ___ 88 1941 ____ 75 1898 _______51 1883 _____ 37 1888 (55) ______4.05 1877 ___ 4.05 1877*__ 2d rain 3.90 1869 (1.84+2.06) Oct 05 ___ 94 1941^____ 75 1898^______50 1881 _____ 35 1881 ___________1.99 1995 ___ 4.07 1877 __ Oct 06 ___ 90 1941 ____ 71 1910 _______ 50 1935 _____ 36 1881 (60) ______2.70 1871 ___ 2.70 1871*__ 2.39" R 1955 (1d) Oct 07 ___ 88 1944 ____ 70 2005 ______ 48 1873 ____ 39 1954, 99 ______4.09 1972 ___ 4.38 1972 __ Oct 08 ___ 87 2007 ____ 72 2017 ______ 45 1988 ____ 37 1988 __________ 4.30 1903 ___ 4.49 2005 (0.23+4.26) ^ Oct 09 ___ 86 1916 ____ 71 2017 _______ 43 1888 ____ 37 1888, 1988 ____ 7.33 1903 ___11.63 1903 __ Oct 10 ___ 91 1939 ____ 71 2018 _______ 43 1925 ____ 35 1888 ___________2.44 1871 ___ 7.50 1903 __ Tr sn 1925,79 Oct 11 ___ 85 1949 ____ 69 2018 _______ 48 1951 ____ 34 1964 (55) ______3.06 2002 ___ 3.25 2002 __ Oct 12 ___ 86 1928,54 _ 67 1954 _______ 49 1875,87,91_35 1876 (52) ______4.26 2005 __ 4.39 2005, 4.34 2002 _ 3.40 1983 1dR Oct 13 ___ 87 1954 ____ 69 1990 _______ 47 1874 ____ 34 1875 (51) ______2.75 2005 ___ 7.01 2005 __ Tr sn 1937 Oct 14 ___ 84 1920 ____ 68 1990 _______ 45 1889 ____ 37 1988 (53 13th)_ 1.76 1995 ___ 4.29 2005 __ Oct 15 ___ 84 1956 ____ 69 2014 _______ 46 1876 ____ 32 1876 __________ 1.70 1943 ___ 1.95 1995 __ 0.5" sn 1876 Oct 16 ___ 87 1897 ____ 67 1897 _______ 46 2009 ____ 34 1876 (49) ______2.15 1974 ___ 2.35 1974 __ Oct 17 ___ 90 1938 ____ 67 1928 _______ 47 1970 ____ 33 1886 (47 16th) _2.28 1936 ___ 2.30 1936 __ Trace sn 1929 Oct 18 ___ 82 1928 ____ 69 1928 _______ 45 2009 ____35 1929,39,74 _____2.45 1911 ___ 3.24 1932^__Trace sn 1926,72 Oct 19 ___ 85 2016 ____ 68 1905 _______ 43 1972 _____30 1940 (45) ______4.35 1996^___ 4.35 1996*__ Trace sn 1940,72 Oct 20 ___ 80 1947,69 _ 65 1916, 84 ___ 44 1974 _____31 1974 ___________2.78 1989 ___ 4.50 1996^__ 0.5" sn 1952 Oct 21 ___ 84 1920 ____ 64 1947, 79 ___ 43 1888 _____31 1871 (52 20th) _2.17 1995 ___ 2.78 1989**_ Oct 22 ___ 88 1979 ____ 67 1979 _______ 43 1887 ____ 30 1940 (51) ______1.51 2014 ___ 2.17 1995**_ Oct 23 ___ 85 1947 ____ 67 1979 _______ 42 1889 ____ 32 1969 (43) ______2.97 1912 ___ 2.99 1912 __ Oct 24 ___ 79 2001 ____ 67 2017 _______ 44 1889 ____ 31 1969 (51) ______2.51 1917 ___ 3.92 1923^__Trace sn 1960 Oct 25 ___ 79 1963 ____ 69 1908 _______ 40 1879 ____ 29 1879 __________ 3.30 1913 ___ 3.94 1913 __ Oct 26 ___ 78 1963,64 _ 66 1908 _______ 39 1962 ____ 30 1869, 79 ______ 3.40 1943 ___ 3.54 1943 __Tr sn 1903,28,62 Oct 27 ___ 82 1963 ____ 66 1908 _______ 39 1869 ____ 28 1936 (43) ______1.88 2003 ___ 3.55 1943 __ Tr sn 1903,44 Oct 28 ___ 83 1919 ____ 64 1971 ________ 41 1876 _____29 1976 (42 27th)_ 2.49 1953 ___ 2.54 2006 __ Tr sn 1925,34,65 Oct 29 ___ 78 1971 ____ 63 1946 _______ 43 1909,25,52_ 31 1925 (43) ______3.67 1973 ___ 3.67 1973*__ 2.9" sn 2011 Oct 30 ___ 82 1946,61 _ 64 1918, 46 ___ 38 1925 _____ 31 1925 __________1.64 1917 ___ 3.89 1973 ___ 0.8" sn 1925 Oct 31 ___ 81 1946 ____ 62 1881, 1961 _ 41 1869 _____ 29 1887, 1925 (44)_2.41 1956 ___ 2.41 1956*__ (no snow) -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- ^ 5th _ Min with the extreme Oct max of 94 in 1941 was 71. Max with the extreme high mins in 1898 were 80, 81. ^ 7th to 14th _ 2005 had 13.25" rain in eight days with two amounts of 4.26" (8th,12th) and another 4.29" 13th-14th. ^ 18th _ 2d max rain 1932 3.24" (1.15+2.09) also 2.89" 1927 (0.98+1.91). Both greater than 1911 which had zero added. ^ 19th _ 3.12" R in 1966 (1d) .. 3.72 2d 1911 (2.45+1.27). ^ 20th _ 4.19" 2d rain 1989 (1.41+2.78) ^ 23-24 _ 3.92" 2d rain 1923 (2.45+1.47) ________________________________________________________________________________________ Notes: For 2d rain, ** indicates all rain fell previous day, ^ indicates all rain fell only on calendar date (all 2d records are previous day added to day of listing) 1903 2d rain is also annual max. For low min, any temp in brackets is a daily max on same date, not a record low max. Snowfall record column sometimes has overflow from 2d rainfall, "sn" always added to snowfall daily records (starting on Oct 10) 2.9" on Oct 29, 2011 is only 2.5"+ amt before Nov 6 (1879, 2.5") and not surpassed to 4.3" (Nov 7, 2012).

First frost contest? Tick tock.

note: Sep contest scoring is two posts back ... <<<< ===[]===[] .......... ==== Annual scoring for Jan-Sep 2024 ==== ..........[]===[]=== >>>> wxallannj _______________ 678 _632 _674 __1984 __ 544 _700 _602 __1846 _3830 __570 _600 _672 _1842 ____ 5672 ___ Consensus _________ 650 _636 _672 __1958 __528_670 _606 __1804 _3762 __498 _574_624 _1696 ____ 5458 rainsucks _______________ 733 _689 _617 __2039 __ 542 _651 _593 __1786 _ 3825 __467 _559 _558 _ 1584 ____ 5409 DonSutherland1 _________658 _680 _698 __2036 __ 546 _610 _530 __1686 _ 3722 __562 _544 _506 _ 1612 ____ 5334 RJay ____________________ 656 _623 _588 __ 1867 __ 564 _663 _566 __1793 _ 3660 __518 _579 _553 __1650 ____ 5310 Scotty Lightning ________ 609 _547 _607 __ 1763 __ 424 _707 _669 __1800 _ 3563 __483 _523 _665 __1671 ____ 5234 so_whats_happening ___ 626 _620 _668 __ 1914 __ 519 _ 634 _550 __1703 _ 3617 __ 514 _494 _586 __1594 ____ 5211 Roger Smith _____________606 _582 _488 __ 1676 __ 534 _683 _526 __1743 _ 3419 __ 504 _646 _538 __1688 ____ 5107 hudsonvalley21 _________ 556 _494 _546 __ 1596 __ 538 _660 _646 __1844 _3440 __ 534 _502 _594 __1630 ____5070 Tom _____________________594 _552 _604 __ 1750 __ 444 _622 _574 __ 1640 _3390 __448 _522 _656 __1626 ____ 5016 RodneyS ________________ 490 _614 _644 __ 1748 __ 373 _468 _558 __ 1399 _ 3147 __ 580 _404 _678 __1662 ____4809 wxdude64 ______________ 419 _469 _575 __ 1463 __ 442 _471 _523 __ 1436 _ 2899 __ 465 _467 _637 __1569 ____4468 BKViking (8/9) __________ 568 _532 _570 __ 1670 __ 409 _557 _505 __ 1471 _ 3141 __ 422 _ 511 _ 537 __ 1470 ____4611 (5187) --------------------- Persistence _____________ 678 _622 _652 __1952 __360 _634 _530 __ 1524 _3476 _ 188 _524 _568 __1290 ____ 4766 Normal __________________466 _444 _548 __1458 __440 _496 _460 __1396 _2854 _ 398 _388 _726 __ 1512 ____ 4366 Stormchaser Chuck (6/9)_326 _350 _382__1058 __334 _320 _314 __968 __2026 __252 _358 _348 __ 958 ____ 2984 (4476) Rhino16 (4/9) ____________ 210 _186 _198 __ 594 __ 227 _286 _216 __ 729 __1323 ___230 _341 _260 __ 831 ____ 2154 (4847) George BM (1/9) ___________88 _ 98 _ 96 __ 282 __ 48 _ 70 __ 42 __ 160 __ 442 ___ 98 __ 18 __ 32 __ 148 ______ 590 (5310) pro-rated scores for entrants above can be better compared to field and Normal. Persistence stayed well above Normal and back near last in forecaster group. ----------------------------------- Best forecasts * tied wins (one per * ) ^ 3 forecasters tied (plus Consensus and normal -- 4 for SEA for 2024-03 and PHX for April ) FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___ TOTAL wxallannj ________________3*___ 1*___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2** __0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___2*___ 3* ___ 2 _____ 1 _May ___ Consensus _________ 0 ___ 1^____ 0 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^____0 ____ 0 rainsucks _______________ 2 ___ 3 ____ 2 ____ 2 ____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1^ ___0 ____ 1 *____ 1 _ Feb DonSutherland1 _________ 1 ___ 1^ ___ 2 ____ 4 *___ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____2 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 2^____ 0 _____ 0 RJay _____________________1*___ 1*___ 0 ____ 1*____ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2^ ____ 2 *____ 2 _ Mar, Sep Scotty Lightning _________1 ___ 2^___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2* ____ 1* ___ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 2^____ 0 ____ 0 so_whats_happening ____0 ___ 1^ ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 _____ 0 Roger Smith _____________ 0 ___ 2^ __ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ___3*** _ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 3^ ___1* ____3 ____ 3 _Apr,Jul,Aug hudsonvalley21 _________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2**__ 1*___ 4 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 _____ 0 Tom _____________________ 0 ___ 2**__0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^___ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 RodneyS ________________ 1 ___ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 3 ___ 1*___ 0 ____ 1 ______ 1 _ Jan BKViking ________________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 0 wxdude64 _______________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 _____2 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 _____ 0 Normal __________________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 3^____ 0 ______ 0 Rhino16 _________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 2 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 2 ______ 1 _ Jun Stormchaser Chuck _____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 2**__0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ____0 _____ 0 George BM _______________0 ___ 1^ ___ 1 _____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 July NYC five tied, added to table ^ ... tied total score of DonS and George for eastern total not indicated as tied. RodneyS also DEN in July EXTREmE FORECAST REPORT so far, a total of 52 qualified (37 for warmest, 15 for coldest) ... ... Jan 2-2, Feb 8-0, Mar 4-0, Apr 4-2, May 3-2, June 7-1, July 2-3, Aug 3-4, Sep 4-1 * tied for a win or loss, scores adjusted in final col. FORECASTER ___________ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun _ Jul _ Aug _ Sep __ TOTAL __ adj for ties rainsucks ________________2-0 _ 4-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-2* _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-1 __ 9-3 ___ 9.0 - 2.5 Roger Smith ______________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-1 _ 2*-1 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 2*-0_1-0 _ 0-0 __ 7-2 ___ 5.5 - 2.0 Scotty Lightning _________ 0-0 _ 2*-0_0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 3-0 _ 0-0 _2*-0 _0-0 __7-0 ___ 6.0 - 0 RodneyS _________________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0 -0 _ 3-0 _ 0-0 __ 6-0 ___ 6.0 - 0 ___ Normal _______________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-1 __ 3-0 __ 1-0 __ 6-2 ___ 6.0 - 2.0 Rhino16 __________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 4-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 5-0 ___ 5.0 - 0 wxallannj _________________0-0 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 2*-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0_0-0 _ 0-0 __ 5-1 ___ 3.5 - 1.0 hudsonvalley21 __________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 3**-0_0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 1-0 ___ 5-1 ___ 3.0 - 1.0 wxdude64 _______________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _2-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ___ 4-0 ___ 4.0 - 0 RJay _____________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-2 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _2-0 __ 4-2 ___ 3.5 - 2.0 DonSutherland1 __________0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0 -0 _ 1-0 __0-0 ___ 3-0 ___ 3.0 - 0 Stormchaser Chuck ______0-2 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 2*-0 _0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 ___ 2-2 ___ 1.5- 2.0 BKViking _________________ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __0-0 __ 0-1 Tom, swh __________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __ 0-0

wxdude64 posted in Sep contest: Heading out of town for a couple weeks, here are my picks for October. DCA: -0.6 NYC: +0.4 BOS: +1.1 ORD: -0.9 ATL: -1.2 IAH: -0.2 DEN: -0.6 PHX: +1.8 SEA: -0.3 And my forecasts: Roger S ___ -0.5 _ -0.7 _ -0.9 __ +1.7 _ +0.2 _ +1.0 ____ +2.0 _ +2.2 _ +1.2

There are some encouraging signs. But I actually dropped by to remind NYC people to enter forecast contest on time.

Did Randy ever post about his experience in GA? I guess the worst of it went east of where he was (if he went)?

There is enough time to reach cat-4, I don't think cat-5 was ever a strong option. I will say cat-4 by 21z and either cat-4 to landfall or just back to top end cat-3 at landfall which I currently think will be 03z near St marks NWR to western Taylor co. Track will place western eyewall over TLH around 05z and very close to stormtracker's proposed location 09z and near or just east of ATL by 12-15z Friday. For a min pressure will go with 947 just before landfall. (935 is probably limit for min SLP) 40/70 I wanted to read your assessment but link was broken when I tried, this is perhaps why a post was deleted? Is my guess above close to yours? If not are you less intense and further east? That was my feeling as to bust direction, not stronger and not west of Carrabelle for landfall. Still 30% prob direct hit TLH.

Alberto (1994) dropped 24" rain in central GA. (near macon, severe flood damage) Will post on main thread also ... There is enough time to reach cat-4, I don't think cat-5 was ever a strong option. I will say cat-4 by 21z and either cat-4 to landfall or just back to top end cat-3 at landfall which I currently think will be 03z near St marks NWR to western Taylor co. Track will place western eyewall over TLH around 05z and very close to stormtracker's proposed location 09z and near or just east of ATL by 12-15z Friday. For a min pressure will go with 947 just before landfall. 40/70 I wanted to read your assessment but link was broken when I tried, this is perhaps why a post was deleted? Is my guess above close to yours? If not are you less intense and further east? That was my feeling as to bust direction, not stronger and not west of Carrabelle for landfall. Still 30% prob direct hit TLH.

Predict temp anomalies for nine locations (F deg relative to 1991-2020 averages) ... DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Deadline is 06z Oct 1st wxdude64 entry is in Sep contest thread.

As to RI potential, 'cane is not quite totally past land interaction and situation will probably explode after 06z and in particular when center is between 25 and 27 N tomorrow. A lot more effective energy inflow can take place as it gets further from land and inflow is coming from tropical Atlantic with Cuba no longer a partial obstacle to inflow. That will soon be the case. I would look for steady pressure falls after 06z, just slight falls to then.

With regard to situation over GA now, a frontal boundary runs from about 30e ATL to s.w. GA and will become q.s. overnite into Thursday, as hurricane approaches it will be pushed back to the west 20-40 miles and will be focus of exceptionally heavy rainfalls in 10-15 inch range (closer to 5-10 inch warmer air mass over e, s GA). I think the forecast for ATL, CSG and over towards Warner Robins (where Stormtracker is going, Bonaire is a suburb) needs to be along lines of all hell will break loose later Thurs after intermittent heavy thundershowers now to 18z, intervals of torrential wind-blown rain, frequent lightning, embedded tornadic wind streaks with gusts to 100-120 possible (outside of those, 80-100). It will only die down a bit when remnant low gets past ATL. That frontal boundary is probably going to stall overnite and edge back west as 'cane approaches landfall. Temps will be 66-69F on west side and 77-81 on east side. Imagine also upsloping all of those frontal dynamics into southern Apps. Nasty.

Yikes, cane will be ramping and passing just to your west by 9 pm to midnite, I would not be too confident flight will take place, is it an airline or charter? I am no coward but I would seriously consider postponing/not going. 25% chance it goes a bit too far west to produce worst case conditions (which could be SSE 50G75, 6-8" of rain and local tornadic windstreaks).

Table of storms (two posts back) still needed to verify forecasts is updated for likely events taking Helene to major next day or so. Also Isaac now a TS (edit _ and now a 'cane, not progged to be very strong). Also we now welcome Joyce, predicted to remain a TS. At 10/6/2 season if 70% done will end at 13/9/3 so almost all forecasts need a strong OCT-NOV to stand any real possibility of contest success now. A 5/4/2 Oct brings it to 15/10/4 and a 2/1/0 NOV to 17/11/4, so even stronger actual results would be needed by most of us.

32" that s.b. 37"

Storm is near wtere Wilma set a record for rapid intensification in Oct 2005. Paths diverged afterwards (not expecting as fast RI this one, RI will be late Wednesday 26N or so)

I am expecting an over-performer (RI) and possibly cat-4 by 26-27 N (landfall 29N cat-3). East-west wobble factor (0.2-0.3 deg) is likely to play as max east displacements midnite, and max west mid-day, given moon's present orbital position. Strong n max declination peak at present will decrease over 3 days, it does add tidal range to coming period between F and new.

Final scoring for September 2024 scores are based on end of Sep anomalies in previous post. FORECASTER ___________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH_ cent _ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA_west ___ TOTAL RJay _____________________________ 78 _ 66 _ 78 __ 222 ___ 74 _ 88 _ 96 __ 258 __ 480 __78 _ 60 _46 __ 184____ 664 rainsucks ________________________ 70 _ 52 _ 62 __ 184 ___ 80 _ 92 _ 96 __ 268 __ 452 __58 _ 46 _ 80 __ 184____ 636 wxallannj _________________________ 92 _ 80 _ 94 __ 266 ___ 26 _ 72 _ 76 __ 174 __ 440 __48 _ 42 _ 72 __ 162____ 602 ___ Consensus __________________ 88 _ 80 _ 92 __ 260 ___ 28 _ 80 _ 74 __ 182 __ 442 __38 _ 38 _ 76 __ 152____ 594 Don Sutherland 1 __________________98 _ 94 _ 92 __ 284___ 30 _ 82 _66 __ 178 __ 462 __ 34 _ 46 _ 46 __ 126____ 588 hudsonvalley21 __________________ 52 _ 38 _ 54 __ 144 ___ 68 _ 86 _100 __254 __ 398 __52 _ 38 _ 88 __ 178 ____ 576 Scotty Lightning _________________ 62 _ 62 _ 86 __ 210 ___ 34 _ 88 _ 96 __ 218 __ 428 __28 _ 36 _ 80 __ 144 ____ 572 BKViking _________________________ 82 _ 76 _ 90 __ 248 ___ 24 _ 78 _ 76 __ 178 __ 426 __36 _ 32 _ 64 __ 132 ____ 558 Tom ______________________________ 94 _ 82 _ 94 __ 270 ___ 30 _ 70 _ 68 __ 168 __ 438 __ 12 _ 18 _ 88 __ 118 ____ 556 Roger Smith ______________________ 92 _ 98 _ 86 __ 276 ___ 02 _ 52 _ 32 __ 086 __362 __ 48 _ 50 _ 70 __ 168 ____530 ___ Normal _______________________98 _ 92 _ 94 __ 284 ___ 14 _ 72 _ 56 __ 142 __ 426 __ 00 _ 00 _100__ 100 ____526 so_whats_happening _____________ 84 _ 82 _ 96 __262 ___ 10 _ 80 _ 72 __ 162 __ 424 __ 18 _ 24 _ 50 __ 092 ____ 516 RodneyS __________________________66 _ 94 _ 86 __ 246 ___ 20 _ 32 _ 50 __ 102 __ 348 __ 38 _ 14 _ 88 __ 140 ____ 488 wxdude64 ________________________ 46 _ 72 _ 72 __ 190 ___ 00 _ 62 _ 64 __ 126 __ 316 ___ 08 _ 24 _ 94 __ 126 ____ 442 ________________ Persistence (Aug 2024) ___________96 _ 88 _ 80 __ 264 ___ 34 _ 88 _ 96 __ 218 __ 482 __ 52 _ 84 _ 88 __ 224 ____ 706 (first time Persistence has scored above all forecasters) ========================== Extreme forecast report ... DCA _ not an extreme forecast. NYC _ not an extreme forecast. BOS _ not an extreme forecast. ORD _ a win for rainsucks (+3.3) ATL _ not an extreme forecast. IAH _ a win for hudsonvalley21 (+2.2) and a loss for rainsucks (+2.4) DEN _ a win for RJay (+4.0) PHX _ a win for RJay (+3.2) SEA _ a win for wxdude64 at +0.3, Normal also credited win as final was 0.0 ==============================