Roger Smith

Kirk brought count to 11/7/3 and Leslie to 12/7/3, very likely to go (edit now is) 12/8/3 (and probably not 12/8/4) so will edit "rest of season forecast" table several posts back now, based on 12/8/3. Next edit will also go forward to latest post. Edit is now added to post ... Oct 6 _ new edit for Milton (1/1/1 is being added now) ... count will be 13/9/4 Oct 19 _ Nadine, Oscar boost count to 15/10/4. Nov 3 _ Patty to 16/10/4 and edit for PTC 18 being at least a TS, potential count 17/10/4. Nov 6 _ Rafael now brings count to 17/11/5 As a scoring post contains following info, it will now be deleted, see Nov 4 post as edited for updates.

<<< OCTOBER RECORDS for NYC >>> DATE ____ High max ___ High min _____ Low max ___ Low min _________Max prec (r) _ Max 2d rain _ Max snow (10th to 31st) Oct 01 ___ 88 1927 ____ 72 1881, 1954 _ 51 1899 ____ 36 1947 (60) _____4.98 1913 ___ 4.98 1913*__ 2d rain 3.56 2010 (1.10+2.46) Oct 02 ___ 93 2019 ____ 72 1954 ______ 49 1899 ____ 39 1886 (54) _____2.16 1929 ___ 5.28 1913 __ Oct 03 ___ 87 1919 ____ 68 1954, 69 ___47 1888 ____ 38 1888,99,1974 __1.84 1869 ___ 2.16 1929**_ Oct 04 ___ 88 1941 ____ 75 1898 _______51 1883 _____ 37 1888 (55) ______4.05 1877 ___ 4.05 1877*__ 2d rain 3.90 1869 (1.84+2.06) Oct 05 ___ 94 1941^____ 75 1898^______50 1881 _____ 35 1881 ___________1.99 1995 ___ 4.07 1877 __ Oct 06 ___ 90 1941 ____ 71 1910 _______ 50 1935 _____ 36 1881 (60) ______2.70 1871 ___ 2.70 1871*__ 2.39" R 1955 (1d) Oct 07 ___ 88 1944 ____ 70 2005 ______ 48 1873 ____ 39 1954, 99 ______4.09 1972 ___ 4.38 1972 __ Oct 08 ___ 87 2007 ____ 72 2017 ______ 45 1988 ____ 37 1988 __________ 4.30 1903 ___ 4.49 2005 (0.23+4.26) ^ Oct 09 ___ 86 1916 ____ 71 2017 _______ 43 1888 ____ 37 1888, 1988 ____ 7.33 1903 ___11.63 1903 __ Oct 10 ___ 91 1939 ____ 71 2018 _______ 43 1925 ____ 35 1888 ___________2.44 1871 ___ 7.50 1903 __ Tr sn 1925,79 Oct 11 ___ 85 1949 ____ 69 2018 _______ 48 1951 ____ 34 1964 (55) ______3.06 2002 ___ 3.25 2002 __ Oct 12 ___ 86 1928,54 _ 67 1954 _______ 49 1875,87,91_35 1876 (52) ______4.26 2005 __ 4.39 2005, 4.34 2002 _ 3.40 1983 1dR Oct 13 ___ 87 1954 ____ 69 1990 _______ 47 1874 ____ 34 1875 (51) ______2.75 2005 ___ 7.01 2005 __ Tr sn 1937 Oct 14 ___ 84 1920 ____ 68 1990 _______ 45 1889 ____ 37 1988 (53 13th)_ 1.76 1995 ___ 4.29 2005 __ Oct 15 ___ 84 1956 ____ 69 2014 _______ 46 1876 ____ 32 1876 __________ 1.70 1943 ___ 1.95 1995 __ 0.5" sn 1876 Oct 16 ___ 87 1897 ____ 67 1897 _______ 46 2009 ____ 34 1876 (49) ______2.15 1974 ___ 2.35 1974 __ Oct 17 ___ 90 1938 ____ 67 1928 _______ 47 1970 ____ 33 1886 (47 16th) _2.28 1936 ___ 2.30 1936 __ Trace sn 1929 Oct 18 ___ 82 1928 ____ 69 1928 _______ 45 2009 ____35 1929,39,74 _____2.45 1911 ___ 3.24 1932^__Trace sn 1926,72 Oct 19 ___ 85 2016 ____ 68 1905 _______ 43 1972 _____30 1940 (45) ______4.35 1996^___ 4.35 1996*__ Trace sn 1940,72 Oct 20 ___ 80 1947,69 _ 65 1916, 84 ___ 44 1974 _____31 1974 ___________2.78 1989 ___ 4.50 1996^__ 0.5" sn 1952 Oct 21 ___ 84 1920 ____ 64 1947, 79 ___ 43 1888 _____31 1871 (52 20th) _2.17 1995 ___ 2.78 1989**_ Oct 22 ___ 88 1979 ____ 67 1979 _______ 43 1887 ____ 30 1940 (51) ______1.51 2014 ___ 2.17 1995**_ Oct 23 ___ 85 1947 ____ 67 1979 _______ 42 1889 ____ 32 1969 (43) ______2.97 1912 ___ 2.99 1912 __ Oct 24 ___ 79 2001 ____ 67 2017 _______ 44 1889 ____ 31 1969 (51) ______2.51 1917 ___ 3.92 1923^__Trace sn 1960 Oct 25 ___ 79 1963 ____ 69 1908 _______ 40 1879 ____ 29 1879 __________ 3.30 1913 ___ 3.94 1913 __ Oct 26 ___ 78 1963,64 _ 66 1908 _______ 39 1962 ____ 30 1869, 79 ______ 3.40 1943 ___ 3.54 1943 __Tr sn 1903,28,62 Oct 27 ___ 82 1963 ____ 66 1908 _______ 39 1869 ____ 28 1936 (43) ______1.88 2003 ___ 3.55 1943 __ Tr sn 1903,44 Oct 28 ___ 83 1919 ____ 64 1971 ________ 41 1876 _____29 1976 (42 27th)_ 2.49 1953 ___ 2.54 2006 __ Tr sn 1925,34,65 Oct 29 ___ 78 1971 ____ 63 1946 _______ 43 1909,25,52_ 31 1925 (43) ______3.67 1973 ___ 3.67 1973*__ 2.9" sn 2011 Oct 30 ___ 82 1946,61 _ 64 1918, 46 ___ 38 1925 _____ 31 1925 __________1.64 1917 ___ 3.89 1973 ___ 0.8" sn 1925 Oct 31 ___ 81 1946 ____ 62 1881, 1961 _ 41 1869 _____ 29 1887, 1925 (44)_2.41 1956 ___ 2.41 1956*__ (no snow) -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- ^ 5th _ Min with the extreme Oct max of 94 in 1941 was 71. Max with the extreme high mins in 1898 were 80, 81. ^ 7th to 14th _ 2005 had 13.25" rain in eight days with two amounts of 4.26" (8th,12th) and another 4.29" 13th-14th. ^ 18th _ 2d max rain 1932 3.24" (1.15+2.09) also 2.89" 1927 (0.98+1.91). Both greater than 1911 which had zero added. ^ 19th _ 3.12" R in 1966 (1d) .. 3.72 2d 1911 (2.45+1.27). ^ 20th _ 4.19" 2d rain 1989 (1.41+2.78) ^ 23-24 _ 3.92" 2d rain 1923 (2.45+1.47) ________________________________________________________________________________________ Notes: For 2d rain, ** indicates all rain fell previous day, ^ indicates all rain fell only on calendar date (all 2d records are previous day added to day of listing) 1903 2d rain is also annual max. For low min, any temp in brackets is a daily max on same date, not a record low max. Snowfall record column sometimes has overflow from 2d rainfall, "sn" always added to snowfall daily records (starting on Oct 10) 2.9" on Oct 29, 2011 is only 2.5"+ amt before Nov 6 (1879, 2.5") and not surpassed to 4.3" (Nov 7, 2012).

First frost contest? Tick tock.

note: Sep contest scoring is two posts back ... <<<< ===[]===[] .......... ==== Annual scoring for Jan-Sep 2024 ==== ..........[]===[]=== >>>> wxallannj _______________ 678 _632 _674 __1984 __ 544 _700 _602 __1846 _3830 __570 _600 _672 _1842 ____ 5672 ___ Consensus _________ 650 _636 _672 __1958 __528_670 _606 __1804 _3762 __498 _574_624 _1696 ____ 5458 rainsucks _______________ 733 _689 _617 __2039 __ 542 _651 _593 __1786 _ 3825 __467 _559 _558 _ 1584 ____ 5409 DonSutherland1 _________658 _680 _698 __2036 __ 546 _610 _530 __1686 _ 3722 __562 _544 _506 _ 1612 ____ 5334 RJay ____________________ 656 _623 _588 __ 1867 __ 564 _663 _566 __1793 _ 3660 __518 _579 _553 __1650 ____ 5310 Scotty Lightning ________ 609 _547 _607 __ 1763 __ 424 _707 _669 __1800 _ 3563 __483 _523 _665 __1671 ____ 5234 so_whats_happening ___ 626 _620 _668 __ 1914 __ 519 _ 634 _550 __1703 _ 3617 __ 514 _494 _586 __1594 ____ 5211 Roger Smith _____________606 _582 _488 __ 1676 __ 534 _683 _526 __1743 _ 3419 __ 504 _646 _538 __1688 ____ 5107 hudsonvalley21 _________ 556 _494 _546 __ 1596 __ 538 _660 _646 __1844 _3440 __ 534 _502 _594 __1630 ____5070 Tom _____________________594 _552 _604 __ 1750 __ 444 _622 _574 __ 1640 _3390 __448 _522 _656 __1626 ____ 5016 RodneyS ________________ 490 _614 _644 __ 1748 __ 373 _468 _558 __ 1399 _ 3147 __ 580 _404 _678 __1662 ____4809 wxdude64 ______________ 419 _469 _575 __ 1463 __ 442 _471 _523 __ 1436 _ 2899 __ 465 _467 _637 __1569 ____4468 BKViking (8/9) __________ 568 _532 _570 __ 1670 __ 409 _557 _505 __ 1471 _ 3141 __ 422 _ 511 _ 537 __ 1470 ____4611 (5187) --------------------- Persistence _____________ 678 _622 _652 __1952 __360 _634 _530 __ 1524 _3476 _ 188 _524 _568 __1290 ____ 4766 Normal __________________466 _444 _548 __1458 __440 _496 _460 __1396 _2854 _ 398 _388 _726 __ 1512 ____ 4366 Stormchaser Chuck (6/9)_326 _350 _382__1058 __334 _320 _314 __968 __2026 __252 _358 _348 __ 958 ____ 2984 (4476) Rhino16 (4/9) ____________ 210 _186 _198 __ 594 __ 227 _286 _216 __ 729 __1323 ___230 _341 _260 __ 831 ____ 2154 (4847) George BM (1/9) ___________88 _ 98 _ 96 __ 282 __ 48 _ 70 __ 42 __ 160 __ 442 ___ 98 __ 18 __ 32 __ 148 ______ 590 (5310) pro-rated scores for entrants above can be better compared to field and Normal. Persistence stayed well above Normal and back near last in forecaster group. ----------------------------------- Best forecasts * tied wins (one per * ) ^ 3 forecasters tied (plus Consensus and normal -- 4 for SEA for 2024-03 and PHX for April ) FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___ TOTAL wxallannj ________________3*___ 1*___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2** __0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___2*___ 3* ___ 2 _____ 1 _May ___ Consensus _________ 0 ___ 1^____ 0 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^____0 ____ 0 rainsucks _______________ 2 ___ 3 ____ 2 ____ 2 ____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1^ ___0 ____ 1 *____ 1 _ Feb DonSutherland1 _________ 1 ___ 1^ ___ 2 ____ 4 *___ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____2 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 2^____ 0 _____ 0 RJay _____________________1*___ 1*___ 0 ____ 1*____ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2^ ____ 2 *____ 2 _ Mar, Sep Scotty Lightning _________1 ___ 2^___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2* ____ 1* ___ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 2^____ 0 ____ 0 so_whats_happening ____0 ___ 1^ ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 _____ 0 Roger Smith _____________ 0 ___ 2^ __ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ___3*** _ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 3^ ___1* ____3 ____ 3 _Apr,Jul,Aug hudsonvalley21 _________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2**__ 1*___ 4 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 _____ 0 Tom _____________________ 0 ___ 2**__0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^___ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 RodneyS ________________ 1 ___ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 3 ___ 1*___ 0 ____ 1 ______ 1 _ Jan BKViking ________________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 0 wxdude64 _______________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 _____2 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 _____ 0 Normal __________________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 3^____ 0 ______ 0 Rhino16 _________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 2 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 2 ______ 1 _ Jun Stormchaser Chuck _____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 2**__0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ____0 _____ 0 George BM _______________0 ___ 1^ ___ 1 _____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 July NYC five tied, added to table ^ ... tied total score of DonS and George for eastern total not indicated as tied. RodneyS also DEN in July EXTREmE FORECAST REPORT so far, a total of 52 qualified (37 for warmest, 15 for coldest) ... ... Jan 2-2, Feb 8-0, Mar 4-0, Apr 4-2, May 3-2, June 7-1, July 2-3, Aug 3-4, Sep 4-1 * tied for a win or loss, scores adjusted in final col. FORECASTER ___________ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun _ Jul _ Aug _ Sep __ TOTAL __ adj for ties rainsucks ________________2-0 _ 4-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-2* _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-1 __ 9-3 ___ 9.0 - 2.5 Roger Smith ______________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-1 _ 2*-1 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 2*-0_1-0 _ 0-0 __ 7-2 ___ 5.5 - 2.0 Scotty Lightning _________ 0-0 _ 2*-0_0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 3-0 _ 0-0 _2*-0 _0-0 __7-0 ___ 6.0 - 0 RodneyS _________________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0 -0 _ 3-0 _ 0-0 __ 6-0 ___ 6.0 - 0 ___ Normal _______________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-1 __ 3-0 __ 1-0 __ 6-2 ___ 6.0 - 2.0 Rhino16 __________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 4-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 5-0 ___ 5.0 - 0 wxallannj _________________0-0 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 2*-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0_0-0 _ 0-0 __ 5-1 ___ 3.5 - 1.0 hudsonvalley21 __________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 3**-0_0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 1-0 ___ 5-1 ___ 3.0 - 1.0 wxdude64 _______________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _2-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ___ 4-0 ___ 4.0 - 0 RJay _____________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-2 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _2-0 __ 4-2 ___ 3.5 - 2.0 DonSutherland1 __________0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0 -0 _ 1-0 __0-0 ___ 3-0 ___ 3.0 - 0 Stormchaser Chuck ______0-2 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 2*-0 _0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 ___ 2-2 ___ 1.5- 2.0 BKViking _________________ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __0-0 __ 0-1 Tom, swh __________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __ 0-0

wxdude64 posted in Sep contest: Heading out of town for a couple weeks, here are my picks for October. DCA: -0.6 NYC: +0.4 BOS: +1.1 ORD: -0.9 ATL: -1.2 IAH: -0.2 DEN: -0.6 PHX: +1.8 SEA: -0.3 And my forecasts: Roger S ___ -0.5 _ -0.7 _ -0.9 __ +1.7 _ +0.2 _ +1.0 ____ +2.0 _ +2.2 _ +1.2

There are some encouraging signs. But I actually dropped by to remind NYC people to enter forecast contest on time.

Did Randy ever post about his experience in GA? I guess the worst of it went east of where he was (if he went)?

There is enough time to reach cat-4, I don't think cat-5 was ever a strong option. I will say cat-4 by 21z and either cat-4 to landfall or just back to top end cat-3 at landfall which I currently think will be 03z near St marks NWR to western Taylor co. Track will place western eyewall over TLH around 05z and very close to stormtracker's proposed location 09z and near or just east of ATL by 12-15z Friday. For a min pressure will go with 947 just before landfall. (935 is probably limit for min SLP) 40/70 I wanted to read your assessment but link was broken when I tried, this is perhaps why a post was deleted? Is my guess above close to yours? If not are you less intense and further east? That was my feeling as to bust direction, not stronger and not west of Carrabelle for landfall. Still 30% prob direct hit TLH.

Alberto (1994) dropped 24" rain in central GA. (near macon, severe flood damage) Will post on main thread also ... There is enough time to reach cat-4, I don't think cat-5 was ever a strong option. I will say cat-4 by 21z and either cat-4 to landfall or just back to top end cat-3 at landfall which I currently think will be 03z near St marks NWR to western Taylor co. Track will place western eyewall over TLH around 05z and very close to stormtracker's proposed location 09z and near or just east of ATL by 12-15z Friday. For a min pressure will go with 947 just before landfall. 40/70 I wanted to read your assessment but link was broken when I tried, this is perhaps why a post was deleted? Is my guess above close to yours? If not are you less intense and further east? That was my feeling as to bust direction, not stronger and not west of Carrabelle for landfall. Still 30% prob direct hit TLH.

Predict temp anomalies for nine locations (F deg relative to 1991-2020 averages) ... DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Deadline is 06z Oct 1st wxdude64 entry is in Sep contest thread.

As to RI potential, 'cane is not quite totally past land interaction and situation will probably explode after 06z and in particular when center is between 25 and 27 N tomorrow. A lot more effective energy inflow can take place as it gets further from land and inflow is coming from tropical Atlantic with Cuba no longer a partial obstacle to inflow. That will soon be the case. I would look for steady pressure falls after 06z, just slight falls to then.

With regard to situation over GA now, a frontal boundary runs from about 30e ATL to s.w. GA and will become q.s. overnite into Thursday, as hurricane approaches it will be pushed back to the west 20-40 miles and will be focus of exceptionally heavy rainfalls in 10-15 inch range (closer to 5-10 inch warmer air mass over e, s GA). I think the forecast for ATL, CSG and over towards Warner Robins (where Stormtracker is going, Bonaire is a suburb) needs to be along lines of all hell will break loose later Thurs after intermittent heavy thundershowers now to 18z, intervals of torrential wind-blown rain, frequent lightning, embedded tornadic wind streaks with gusts to 100-120 possible (outside of those, 80-100). It will only die down a bit when remnant low gets past ATL. That frontal boundary is probably going to stall overnite and edge back west as 'cane approaches landfall. Temps will be 66-69F on west side and 77-81 on east side. Imagine also upsloping all of those frontal dynamics into southern Apps. Nasty.

Yikes, cane will be ramping and passing just to your west by 9 pm to midnite, I would not be too confident flight will take place, is it an airline or charter? I am no coward but I would seriously consider postponing/not going. 25% chance it goes a bit too far west to produce worst case conditions (which could be SSE 50G75, 6-8" of rain and local tornadic windstreaks).

Table of storms (two posts back) still needed to verify forecasts is updated for likely events taking Helene to major next day or so. Also Isaac now a TS (edit _ and now a 'cane, not progged to be very strong). Also we now welcome Joyce, predicted to remain a TS. At 10/6/2 season if 70% done will end at 13/9/3 so almost all forecasts need a strong OCT-NOV to stand any real possibility of contest success now. A 5/4/2 Oct brings it to 15/10/4 and a 2/1/0 NOV to 17/11/4, so even stronger actual results would be needed by most of us.

32" that s.b. 37"

Storm is near wtere Wilma set a record for rapid intensification in Oct 2005. Paths diverged afterwards (not expecting as fast RI this one, RI will be late Wednesday 26N or so)

I am expecting an over-performer (RI) and possibly cat-4 by 26-27 N (landfall 29N cat-3). East-west wobble factor (0.2-0.3 deg) is likely to play as max east displacements midnite, and max west mid-day, given moon's present orbital position. Strong n max declination peak at present will decrease over 3 days, it does add tidal range to coming period between F and new.

Final scoring for September 2024 scores are based on end of Sep anomalies in previous post. FORECASTER ___________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH_ cent _ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA_west ___ TOTAL RJay _____________________________ 78 _ 66 _ 78 __ 222 ___ 74 _ 88 _ 96 __ 258 __ 480 __78 _ 60 _46 __ 184____ 664 rainsucks ________________________ 70 _ 52 _ 62 __ 184 ___ 80 _ 92 _ 96 __ 268 __ 452 __58 _ 46 _ 80 __ 184____ 636 wxallannj _________________________ 92 _ 80 _ 94 __ 266 ___ 26 _ 72 _ 76 __ 174 __ 440 __48 _ 42 _ 72 __ 162____ 602 ___ Consensus __________________ 88 _ 80 _ 92 __ 260 ___ 28 _ 80 _ 74 __ 182 __ 442 __38 _ 38 _ 76 __ 152____ 594 Don Sutherland 1 __________________98 _ 94 _ 92 __ 284___ 30 _ 82 _66 __ 178 __ 462 __ 34 _ 46 _ 46 __ 126____ 588 hudsonvalley21 __________________ 52 _ 38 _ 54 __ 144 ___ 68 _ 86 _100 __254 __ 398 __52 _ 38 _ 88 __ 178 ____ 576 Scotty Lightning _________________ 62 _ 62 _ 86 __ 210 ___ 34 _ 88 _ 96 __ 218 __ 428 __28 _ 36 _ 80 __ 144 ____ 572 BKViking _________________________ 82 _ 76 _ 90 __ 248 ___ 24 _ 78 _ 76 __ 178 __ 426 __36 _ 32 _ 64 __ 132 ____ 558 Tom ______________________________ 94 _ 82 _ 94 __ 270 ___ 30 _ 70 _ 68 __ 168 __ 438 __ 12 _ 18 _ 88 __ 118 ____ 556 Roger Smith ______________________ 92 _ 98 _ 86 __ 276 ___ 02 _ 52 _ 32 __ 086 __362 __ 48 _ 50 _ 70 __ 168 ____530 ___ Normal _______________________98 _ 92 _ 94 __ 284 ___ 14 _ 72 _ 56 __ 142 __ 426 __ 00 _ 00 _100__ 100 ____526 so_whats_happening _____________ 84 _ 82 _ 96 __262 ___ 10 _ 80 _ 72 __ 162 __ 424 __ 18 _ 24 _ 50 __ 092 ____ 516 RodneyS __________________________66 _ 94 _ 86 __ 246 ___ 20 _ 32 _ 50 __ 102 __ 348 __ 38 _ 14 _ 88 __ 140 ____ 488 wxdude64 ________________________ 46 _ 72 _ 72 __ 190 ___ 00 _ 62 _ 64 __ 126 __ 316 ___ 08 _ 24 _ 94 __ 126 ____ 442 ________________ Persistence (Aug 2024) ___________96 _ 88 _ 80 __ 264 ___ 34 _ 88 _ 96 __ 218 __ 482 __ 52 _ 84 _ 88 __ 224 ____ 706 (first time Persistence has scored above all forecasters) ========================== Extreme forecast report ... DCA _ not an extreme forecast. NYC _ not an extreme forecast. BOS _ not an extreme forecast. ORD _ a win for rainsucks (+3.3) ATL _ not an extreme forecast. IAH _ a win for hudsonvalley21 (+2.2) and a loss for rainsucks (+2.4) DEN _ a win for RJay (+4.0) PHX _ a win for RJay (+3.2) SEA _ a win for wxdude64 at +0.3, Normal also credited win as final was 0.0 ==============================

Anomalies and projections after 19 days ... _____________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA _______ anom 1-19 __________ -1.7 __ -1.2 __ +0.3 __ +2.5 __-0.7 _ +1.1 ___ +4.2 _ +4.1 _ +0.1 _______ p anom Sep ________ -1.0 __ -0.5 __ 0.0 ___ +2.0 __-0.5 _ +0.5 __ +2.5 _ +2.5 _ +0.5 will post preliminary scoring estimates next. Revised on Sep 24 _______ p anom Sep ________ -1.0 __ -0.5 __ 0.0 ___ +3.0 __+0.5 _ +1.5 __ +3.5 _ +4.0 _ +0.5 Final anomalies _____________+0.1 _ -0.4 _ +0.3 ___+4.3 _ +1.4 _ +2.2 ___ +5.2 _ +5.4 _ 0.0

I cannot imagine any of the four locations going above their current seasonal maxima, so I am ready to declare contest SETTLED ... Actual to date _______________________________ 104_101_104_101 Rank _ Departures ______________________DCA IAD BWI RIC ____ TOTALS (rank) __ portion surpassed by maxima _01 ___ Jebman (20) _____________________ 1 _ 1 _ 1 _ 0 _________ 3 (1) _____ 1 _02 ___ yoda (28) ________________________ 2 _ 0 _ 3 _ 1 _________ 6 (2) _____5 _03 ___ Roger Ramjet (18) ________________3 _ 0 _ 3 _ 0 _________ 6 (3) _____6 _04 ___ WxDavis5784 (11) ________________5 _ 0 _ 1 _ 0 _________ 6 (4)_____ 6 _05 ___ wxdude64 (6) ____________________3 _ 1 _ 3 _ 0 _________ 7 (5) _____ 6 _06 ___ Terpeast (10) _____________________4 _ 1 _ 2 _ 0 _________ 7 (6) _____ 6 _xx ___ ___ Consensus (median) __________4 _ 0 _ 3 _ 0 _________ 7 (6.5)____7 _07 ___ katabatic (19) _____________________4 _ 1 _ 2 _ 1 _________ 8 (7) _____ 6 _08 ___ North Balti Zen (4) _______________ 4 _ 2 _ 2 _ 0 _________ 8 (8) _____6 _09 ___ Weather53 (22) __________________ 4 _ 0 _ 3 _ 1 _________ 8 (9) _____ 8 _10 ___ LittleVillageWx (17) ________________5 _ 0 _ 2 _ 1 _________ 8 (10)_____ 8 _ 11 ___ RickinBaltimore (2) _______________ 3 _ 1 _ 3 _ 2 _________ 9 (11)_____ 6 _12 ___ PrinceFrederickWx (5) ____________4 _ 1 _ 3 _ 1 _________ 9 (12) _____ 9 _13 ___ Gramax Refugee (15) _____________ 5 _ 1 _ 3 _ 0 _________ 9 (13) _____ 9 _14 ___ Paleocene (21) ___________________ 4 _ 2 _ 4 _ 0 ________ 10 (14)____ 10 _15 ___ Rhino16 (13) ______________________ 2 _ 3 _ 3 _ 3 _________11 (15) ____ 5 _16 ___ WxUSAF (9) ______________________ 4 _ 2 _ 4 _ 1 _________ 11 (16)_____11 _17 ___ MN Transplant (25) _______________ 5 _ 0 _ 4 _ 2 _________ 11 (17) ____ 11 _18 ___ midAtlanticweather (24) __________ 5 _ 0 _ 5 _ 1 _________ 11 (18)_____ 10 _19 ___ TSG (7) ___________________________ 6 _ 0 _ 5 _ 0 _________ 11 (19) _____11 _20 ___ biodhokie (8) _____________________ 4 _ 1 _ 5 _ 2 _________ 12 (20)_____12 _21 ___ LongRanger (27) __________________ 6 _ 1 _ 2 _ 3 _________ 12 (21)_____ 12 _22 ___ nw baltimore wx (3) ______________ 5 _ 2 _ 4 _ 2 _________ 13 (22)_____13 _23 ___ Roger Smith (1) ___________________ 1 _ 4 _ 2 _ 6 _________ 13 (23) ____ 1 _24 ___ nmyers1204 (29) __________________7 _ 2 _ 3 _ 1 _________ 13 (24)____ 12 _25 ___ GATECH (26) ______________________5 _ 2 _ 5 _ 2 _________ 14 (25) ____14 _26 ___ Jenkins Jinkies (14) _______________ 6 _ 2 _ 5 _ 1 __________14 (26) ____14 _27 ___ Eskimo Joe (16) ___________________ 6 _ 2 _ 5 _ 2 _________15 (27) ____ 15 _28 ___ tplbge (23) ________________________ 5 _ 3 _ 5 _ 3 _________16 (28) ____ 16 _29 ___ George BM (12) ____________________4 _ 9 _ 6 _10 ________ 29 (29) ____ 0 _xx ___ ___ mean (avg) ___________________ 3.9 _ 0.1_ 2.9 _0.1 _____ 7.0 _______ 6.8 Congrats to Jebman who had a clear victory over the field with only three error points; yoda was a solid second (six error points), and Roger Ramjet as well as WxDavis5784 also had six but their error patterns placed them 3rd and 4th. Three forecasters tied for most correct forecasts (two): Roger Ramjet, WxDavis5784 and TSG. All three nailed IAD and RIC (101). Our consensus was also accurate for them. A few others got one of these locations correct. Nobody was exactly correct for DCA or BWI (104), closest calls being 1F for DCA (Jebman 105, Roger S 103), and also 1F for BWI (Jebman and WxDavis5784 both at 103F). On to fall and winter contests ... good luck !!!

Count is 6/4/1. Will probably be 7/4/1 soon if TD Seven is a named storm (later edit, TS Gordon). For now, table of "storms needed to verify" is based on 6/4/1, will re-edit if we are at 7/4/1. (table is two posts back now) ... Gordon's fate is not clear, may eventually become a weak 'cane. Table is now edited for 7/4/1 for now.

Table of forecasts for Sept 2024 FORECASTER ___________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA hudsonvalley21 __________________+2.5 _ +2.7 _ +2.6 __ +2.7 _ +2.1 _ +2.2 ___ +2.7 _ +2.1 _ +0.6 Scotty Lightning _________________ +2.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 __ +1.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 ___ +1.5 _ +2.0 _ +1.0 rainsucks ________________________+1.6 _ +2.0 _ +2.2 __ +3.3 _ +1.8 _ +2.4 ___ +3.0 _ +2.5 _ +1.0 RJay _____________________________+1.2 _ +1.3 _ +1.4 __ +3.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 ___ +4.0 _ +3.2 _ +2.7 BKViking _________________________ +1.0 _ +0.8 _ +0.8 __ +0.5 _ +0.3 _ +1.0 ___ +1.9 _ +1.8 _ +1.8 so_whats_happening _____________+0.9 _ +0.5 _ +0.1 __ -0.2 _ +0.4 _ +0.8 ___ +1.0 _ +1.4 _ +2.5 ___ Consensus __________________+0.7 _ +0.6 _ +0.7 __+0.7 _ +0.4 _ +0.9 ___+2.0 _+2.1 _+1.2 wxallannj _________________________+0.5 _ +0.6 _ +0.7 __ +0.6 __ 0.0 _ +1.0 ___ +2.5 _ +2.3 _ +1.4 Tom ______________________________+0.4 _ +0.5 _+0.6 __ +0.8 _ -0.1 _ +0.6 ___ +0.7 __+1.1 __ +0.6 ___ Normal _______________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 Don Sutherland 1 __________________ 0.0 _ -0.1 _ -0.1 __ +0.8 _ +0.5 _ +0.5 ___ +1.8 _ +2.5 _ +2.7 Roger Smith ______________________ -0.3 _ -0.5 _ -0.4 __ -0.6 _ -1.0 __ -1.2 ___ +2.5 _ +2.7 _ +1.5 RodneyS _________________________ -1.6 _ -0.7 _ -0.4 __ +0.3 _ -2.0 _ -0.3 ___ +2.0 _ +0.9 _ +0.6 wxdude64 ________________________-2.6 _ -1.8 __ -1.1 ____-1.3 _ -0.5 _ +0.4 ___ +0.5 _ +1.4 _ +0.3 ________________ Persistence (Aug 2024) ___________-0.1 _ -1.0 _ -0.7 ____ +1.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.4 ___ +2.7 _ +4.4 _ -0.6 =============================== Warmest and coldest forecasts are color coded; Normal is also colder than all forecasts for DEN, PHX and SEA.

Daily records for NYC ... info is partly available in daily climate reports, but this log adds features like low max, high min, and 2d rainfall totals. For 2d rainfall totals, note, records indicated are for that day and previous day. In a few cases, previous day has no rainfall (*) and in a few other cases, it had all the noted rainfall (**) (e.g. Sep 8 1934 had all rainfall noted as 2d record ending Sep 9 1934). Also, note a few daily low min records have daily max in brackets if value was not itself a record low max. In Sep, only six days actually set both on same day -- three were tied (for low max record). ^ indicates a note below calendar with additional information. ===<<< SEPTEmBER RECORDS >>>=== Date ____ high max __ high min ______ low max ____ low min _____ 1d rain ____ 2d rain ___ also 1d, 2d Sep 01 ___ 97 1953 ____ 76 1898^_______ 59 1869 _____51 1869 _______ 7.13 2021 ___ 7.13 2021*__ 3.84 1927 Sep 02 ___102 1953 ____79 1898 _______ 62 1869_____51 1886 ________2.12 1899 ___ 7.23 2021 __ 3.88 2d 1927^ Sep 03 ___ 99 1929 ____ 78 1898 _______ 62 1935 _____50 1885, 93 ___ 3.32 1969 __ 3.44^1974 (0.18+3.26) Sep 04 ___ 97 1929^____78 1898 _______ 66 1984 _____47 1872, 83 ___ 3.48 1913 ___ 6.28 1969 (3.32+2.96) _ 3.48 1913* Sep 05 ___ 94 1985 ____ 77 1898^_______62 1926 _____51 1963 (63) ___ 2.45 1878 __ 4.14 1913 __ 2.80 1878 2d Sep 06 ___ 97 1881 ____ 78 1985 _______ 56 1963 _____48 1924 (69) ___ 3.26 2008 __ 3.54 2008 __ 3.22 2011 (1d) Sep 07 ___ 101 1881 ____ 79 1881 _______ 63 1877,88 _ 46 1888 ________ 2.07 1998 ___ 4.43 2011 (3.22 + 1.21) _ 3.26 2008** Sep 08 ___ 97 2015 ____ 76 2015 _______ 63 1918 _____52 1871 (65) ___ 4.86 1934 ___ 5.48 1934 __ 3.77 2004 (1d) Sep 09 ___ 94 1915 ____ 77 1884 _______ 61 1880,83 _ 48 1883 ________ 0.86 1902 ___4.86 1934** Sep 10 ___ 97 1931,83 _ 77 1884 _______ 62 1883 _____43 1883 ________ 1.80 2023 ___1.82 2023 __ (1.58 2015 _ 1d) Sep 11 ___ 99 1931,83 _ 78 1983 _______ 61 1876,1914 _43 1917 (62) _____ 2.90 1954 ___3.46 2023 _ 3.30 1954 _ 2.57 1882 (1d) Sep 12 ___ 94 1961 ____ 77 1895 _______ 62 1883 _____46 1917 _________ 2.35 1960 ___3.23 1882 (2.57+0.66) _ 2.66 1960 (2d) Sep 13 ___ 94 1952 ____ 75 1890 _______ 59 1965 _____46 1963 (65) ___ 3.94 1944 ___5.58 1944 __ 3.37" 1889 2d (1.89+1.48) Sep 14 ___ 93 1931 ____ 74 1947 _______ 60 1873 _____46 1911, 75 _____ 3.82 1944 ___7.76 1944 _ 3.10 1945 (1d) ^ Sep 15 ___ 92 1927 ____ 75 1931,2005 _ 57 1954 _____44 1873 (65) ____ 4.16 1933 ___7.00 1933 (2.84+4.16) Sep 16 ___ 93 1915 ____ 73 1903,2005 _ 60 1872 _____47 1966 (70) ____ 5.02 1999 ___5.44 1999 __ 4.38 1933 (2d) Sep 17 ___ 93 1991 ____ 77 1991 _______ 57 1945 _____45 1986 (69) _____ 3.37 1876 ___4.14 1874 __ 3.28 1874 (1d) Sep 18 ___ 91 1891 ____ 72 1905, 72 ___ 60 1875 _____44 1990 (61 17th) _ 3.92 1936 ___6.23 1874 (3.28+2.95) (7.09" 3d) Sep 19 ___ 94 1983 ____ 74 1906 _______ 51 1875^____ 44 1929 (62) ____ 4.30 1894 ___5.16 1894 __ 3.95 1936 (2d) Sep 20 ___ 93 1895, 1983_77 1906 _______ 59 1901 _____44 1993 (62 21st)_ 2.32 1989 ___4.21 1989 (1.89 + 2.32) Sep 21 ___ 95 1895 ____ 77 1895 _______ 56 1871 _____40 1871 ___________ 5.54 1966 ___ 5.74 1938 __ 4.05 1938 (1d)^ Sep 22 ___ 95 1895,1914_75 1895 _______ 55 1875,1904_41 1904 __________ 2.34 1882 ___ 5.64 1966 __ 3.55 1882 (2d) Sep 23 ___ 97 1895 ____ 77 1970 _______ 57 1963 _____41 1947 (60) _____ 8.28 1882 ___10.62 1882 __ 2.72 1919 (1d) Sep 24 ___ 91 2017 ____ 74 1970 _______ 52 1887 _____40 1963 (62) _____ 2.26 1975 ___ 8.30 1882 __ 4.56 1975 (2d) Sep 25 ___ 90 1970 ____ 71 1881,1970 __ 53 1879 _____40 1887 (63 26th) _ 2.36 1940 ___3.31 1975 __ 7.43" 4d total 23-26 1975 Sep 26 ___ 91 1881, 1970_74 1895 _______ 54 2000 _____42 1940 __________2.34 2008 ___ 2.87 1975 __ 2.35" 1991 (1.97+0.38) Sep 27 ___ 90 1933 ____ 75 1881 _______ 56 1893 _____41 1947, 57 _______ 3.13 1985 ___ 3.58 1985 Sep 28 ___ 88 1881 ____ 72 1891 _______ 53 1984 _____41 1947(61 27th) _ 3.84 2004 ___ 3.84 2004 * Sep 29 ___ 88 1945 ____ 72 1959,2015 _ 53 1888 _____42 1888,1914,42 _ 5.48 2023 ^___ 5.84 2023 _ Sep 30 ___ 89 1986 ____ 70 1959 _______52 1888 _____39 1912 (60) _____ 2.64 1983 ___ 2.64 1983 * __ 2.21 1920 (1d) -- - - - - - - - - - - - - -- NOTES in calendar above ^ 1st high min shared 1898, 1980, 2010, 2015 ^ 2nd, 3rd 1953 min 77, 77. also 75 on 3rd, 1973. ^ 2nd __ note also 3.00" 2-3 for 1899 ^ 3rd 2d rain 1969 3.45" (0.11 + 3.32) .01" less than 1974 2d. ^ 1st-7th hot in 1898: 93, 93, 93, 92, 90, 88, 88 (no records though, set or shared high min 1st-5th) ^ 5th high min shared 1898, 1907, 1985, 2018 ^ 14th 2d rain 1971 4.34 (0.58 + 3.76) ... 3d 12th-14th 6.10" ^ 19th min with record low max was 45 (one higher than daily low min) ^ 20-21 the 2d rainfall total occurred with stalled fronts associated with the "Long Island Express" hurricane, with rain on 19th added the three day total was 7.50" and a further 0.63" fell on 17th-18th. The heavier rainfall on 21st 1966 pushed the daily max of 4.05" out of the record column. The 1966 rainfall was not of tropical storm origins. The 2d total for 20-21 was 5.56" (only 0.02" added from 20th) which did not quite exceed the 2d total for 1938. ^ 28-29 4.68 2004 (3.84+0.82) and 28-29 another heavy 2d rainfall was 3.04" in 1907 (0.91+2.13). ^ 29 record rainfall before 2023 was 2.18" 1963 Many of the heavy rainfalls noted in August and September were associated with hurricanes or tropical storms moving up the east coast. The event on Sept 22-23 was a weak tropical storm (4 of 1882) (weak in terms of wind gradient) that dissipated near NYC on 23-24 Sept 1882. The event in mid-Sept of 1944 was the "Great Atlantic hurricane" which made landfall in eastern Long Island on the evening of Sept 14, 1944. The heavy rains of mid-Sept 1933 were associated with a stalled front and Hurricane 12 of that very active year (the "Outer Banks Hurricane") which passed southeast of the region on the 16th-17th. Records for 26-27 were set by Gloria (1985) which made landfall near Babylon NY just east of NYC.

Four Seasons Contest __ Summer 2024 Update Points for four seasons ... 10 for first (total 3 scores), 7 for second, 6 for third, etc, 1 point for all entrants with 2/3 or 3/3 _____________________________ Winter _____________ Spring __________ Summer ________________________ Annual to date FORECASTER _________TOTAL_Points ___ TOTAL_Points ______________ TOTAL_Points ___ Contest TOTAL _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _Jun _ Jul _ Aug wxallannj ________________ 1736 ___10 _____ 2224 ___10 ____ 446 652 588 ___ 1706 ___6t ____ 26 Roger Smith _______________ 793 ___ 1 ______2124 ____6 _____558 704 692 ___ 1954 __ 10 _____17 ___ Consensus ____________1408 ___3.3 ____2088 __5.5 ____ 502 636 620 ___ 1758 ___ 6.2 ___ 15.0 DonSutherland 1 __________1524 ___ 7 _____ 2010 ___ 3 _____ 442 640 612 ___ 1694 ___ 4 _____14 so_whats_happening _____ 1487 ___ 5 ______1946____2 _____450 672 584 ___ 1706 ___ 6t _____13 RJay ______________________1391 ___ 3 ______2142 ___ 7 _____ 568 450 562 ___ 1580 ___ 1 _____ 11 Tom ______________________ 1038 ___ 1 ______2050 ____5 _____516 566 600 ___ 1682 ___ 3 _____ 9 Scotty Lightning __________ 1184 ___ 1 ______ 1900 ____1 _____ 596 640 670 ___1906 ___ 7 _____ 9 RodneyS __________________1497 ___ 6 ______1700 ____1 _____ 346 622 582 ___ 1550 ___ 1 _____ 8 rainsucks __________________1111 ____ 1 ______2040 ___ 4 _____582 412 628 ___ 1622 ___ 2 _____ 7 hudsonvalley21 ___________ 1450 ___ 4 _____ 1918 ____ 1 _____472 552 544 ___ 1568 ___ 1 _____ 6 BKViking __________________1336 ___ 2 ______1921 ____ 1 ______560 --- 570 ___ 1130 ____ 1 _____ 4 wxdude64 ________________ 1098 ___ 1 ______1722 ____ 1 _____334 608 470 ___ 1412 ____1 _____ 3 ___ Normal ________________ 1002 ___ 1 _____ 1474 ____ 1 _____ 324 542 604 ___ 1470 ___ 1 _____ 3 Stormchaser Chuck ________792 ____ 1 ______708 ____ 0 _____ 390 510 584 ___ 1484 ____ 1 _____ 2 Rhino16 ____________________ 747 ____ 1 ______ 672 ____ 0 _____ 739 --- --- ______ 739 ___ 0 _____ 1 ***= = ====================== [[[]]] ====================== = =*** Persistence ________________ 972 ____ 1 _____ 1818 ____ 1 ______ 596 506 490 ___1592 ___ 1 _____ 3 ____________________________ GeorgeBm 590 in July only entry not qualified for contest points. ... Wxallannj is guaranteed to win in any plausible scenario.

-0.3 _ -0.5 _ -0.4 __ -0.6 _ -1.0 _ -1.2 ___ +2.5 _ +2.7 _ +1.5