jaxjagman

We could get a storm in the long range if the teles work in our favor it seems maybe just a slim chance.The last couple days there was a system going into the Yellow Sea and South Korea basically,so chances are we should see a system further south of us.Right now looking at the teles its gonna be to far south and not really much ample cold air,just something to watch Sure looks cold tho by Euro AK Rex block and -NAO,probably just cold for us here and more chances if anything for the eastern people

This was the 4th strongest DMI since 1980 this last fall,all of the other years always resulted into a NINA on the ONI,into the summer months,plus all three other times before hit a moderate to strong NINA.Seemingly in 1994 this was just a Moderate NINO compared to 1997 and 2019,strong.This year is strong(2023) 1997 and 2019 were proceeded by with multi NINA years ,strong NINAS ,but theoretically you could also say 1994 was actually more NINA driven into the pattern for multiple years 1994 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.1 1995 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 1996 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 1997 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.4

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS 8 February 2024 ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory / La Niña Watch Synopsis: A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (79% chance), with increasing odds of La Niña developing in June-August 2024 (55% chance). During January 2024, above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) continued across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. SST anomalies weakened slightly in the eastern and east-central Pacific, as indicated by the weekly Niño index values [Fig. 2]. However, changes were more pronounced below the surface of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with area-averaged subsurface temperature anomalies returning to near zero [Fig. 3]. Although above-average temperatures persisted in the upper 100 meters of the equatorial Pacific, below-average temperatures were widespread at greater depths [Fig. 4]. Atmospheric anomalies across the tropical Pacific also weakened during January. Low-level winds were near average over the equatorial Pacific, while upper-level wind anomalies were easterly over the east-central Pacific. Convection remained slightly enhanced near the Date Line and was close to average around Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected a weakening El Niño. The most recent IRI plume indicates a transition to ENSO-neutral during spring 2024, with La Niña potentially developing during summer 2024 [Fig. 6]. Even though forecasts made through the spring season tend to be less reliable, there is a historical tendency for La Niña to follow strong El Niño events. The forecast team is in agreement with the latest model guidance, with some uncertainty around the timing of transitions to ENSO-neutral and, following that, La Niña. Even as the current El Niño weakens, impacts on the United States could persist through April 2024 (see CPC seasonal outlooks for probabilities of temperature and precipitation). In summary, a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (79% chance), with increasing odds of La Niña developing in June-August 2024 (55% chance; [Fig. 7]). This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 14 March 2024.

Seemingly the Euro and CFS are close to being on the same page right now .CFS has been showing the velocity getting back into the IO and even Maritime into March,it just recently back down and now as we head towards the end of the first week of March its now into Africa just getting into the Western IO

GEPS shows the same thing

This looks like a persistent NINO into spring possible early summer,so we in general would see a more early spring than later severe threat,dont mean it can't happen,but the odds of it are reduced

LOL

Mean while in Central and East China

Here was the SOI back into Dec before our cold shot and the SOI today,who know if it turns out as before,surely shouldnt be as cold if it does turn cold 5 Feb 2024 1007.06 1009.90 -36.41 -0.02 -3.85 4 Feb 2024 1008.30 1009.40 -28.05 0.94 -3.66 3 Feb 2024 1007.67 1007.55 -22.19 1.65 -3.51 2 Feb 2024 1006.85 1008.15 -29.01 2.20 -3.36 1 Feb 2024 1007.27 1008.65 -29.40 3.19 -3.02

The map you quoted me at is the wind reversal.To be a major SSWE you still need the temps at 10hpa to rise around 25 degrees,this is probably the easiest site to read the temps,there is nothing happening right now as the temps look steady the last couple days https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/

Just shows the potential for a SSWE https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/readme.html

The mean has been pretty consistent with bringing the MJO into around phase 8 today and is even just as consistent the last few days with the stopping point.It's having a hard time in the WP.yesterday it was fairly clustered by day 5,not as much today

thats pretty wild

In the past few years parts of Nashville to the north of it has been like a tornado magnet,we havent had one here since 2020.Best area of severe though has always been along the TN/MS/AL border But yes,home insurance has certainly spiked up.

Cold soccer season is not fun.I remember those days when my kids played

This updates in our afternoon each day.But the ensembles are pretty clustered D5 going back into the WP,then by D10 about to be or getting into the WH so we might have to wait until the last week of Feb to get colder it seems like to me

Hudson anyone

Could be the kiss of death for early severe which was what i was thinking could happen

Sports has gotten out of control in all areas because of money and the fans are the ones that are paying for it Baseball look at how the Dodgers found a way to exploit the Ohtani contract,Hes getting paid a annual salary of 2M$ plus deferred payments of 68M$ between 2033 TO 2043 so they can just try and win a championship. Look at the NFL,they are now trying to make this into a international and PPV game.Look at all the price hikes some teams are doing starting next season is just insane.Plus the Super Bowl,for a 20 person suite you pay between 1.4M$-2.5M$, for up to 20 people that is insane,price of a beer$20,if you wanna a hot dog its only $12.75..lmao Now to college sports what are the rules?The NCAA has been corrupt now for decades.It seems the BIG-10 and SEC are getting pissed off and maybe had enough and formed a advisory group together this week,but its hard to read between the lines what is going on.But NIL ,shoot some college players soon will be able to retire before even leaving college if not already The sports world has become Insanity for fans,it's suppose to be entertainment not a business not for you morage your house to watch a game,its out of control !!

Couple members show a split

The Mean looks much better today instead of aiming towards the Maritime long range,its more headed into the IO.Its going back into the WP(PHASE6) D5,then its pretty clustered going into the WH by D10,some odd ball are showing the GFS.As of day 20,break out the darts

That's really a considerable spread as we head past the Mid month of Feb,sometimes tho as we all know the GFS can pull a rabbit out of its hat in the long range,not often but it does happen

Not sure about the GFS,it seems to be hinting at bringing back a +EAMT and the MJO stays into the WP a bit longer.But there is some feedback problems it seems but its been showing this the last couple runs but dont have much of any support.Just about every model i look at shows the MJO going into the WH mid month

Definite some colder signs,upcoming.Not sure about the NAO,GEFS looks slightly +ve

Yeah and the WWB by the Mean takes it back into the WP for a brief time,starting to have my doubts it gets cold around the mid month,not real cold anyways