jaxjagman

Shows what the mountains can do,while you enjoy the upslopes in winter it combats the heat in summer,not all the time but in general it does

Sitting at 92 right now.Heat Index is already over 100.HRRR shows us hitting 100 in a few hours,not sure it's gonna make it,its a little overcast which could hold back temps a couple degrees if nothing changes

The East (1+2) has cooled down the last few days,but it wouldnt still take very much to upwell the warm thermocline fairly fast to warm this back up.

97 here now.Should see some cool down next week.Short range a strong phoon is being shown headed towards East Asia the next couple days.GFS want to take the storm into the Yellow Sea while the Euro goes into East China.Think parts of the Valley could see a big warm back up as we head towards next weekendStill seems this pattern right now we are in is fixing to get broke as we go into August,hopefully the upper 90's are done but its still summer,this stretch has most definite been the hottest we've seen this season.

Lets hope so.We can still get warm in Sept,just look at last year Nashville hit 100 in Sept,think it was Sept 21.,but even that is still rare hitting 100 in Sept,probably influence from NINA as well.

Seen a few times when you have TG going into South East China look at the East Coast,i'm not no met here so certainly could be wrong,seems like to me though the potential of TG effecting the East coast should be real as we get into August its just IMO and no forecast

Seems like the CFS wants wants to possibly strenghten a decent CCKW the next few days as it possibly moves into the Caribbean as it tracks towards Africa

I dont know what the GFS is doing in East Asia,shows two strong typhoons going into South East China the next few days.One should be stronger than the other basically going into the same spot.But the Pattern is breaking down,this might even be our last warmest stretch we see as we go into August again for this summer as the MJO is seemingly going to get into the NH as we get into August.

https://www.weather.gov/ohx/20160122#:~:text=The snow total of 8,in Nashville in 28 years.

That not the right article but it does mention Jan 22,2016 and that winter

Oh wow,you're right https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/record-breaking-snowstorm-wreaks-havoc-in-tennessee/1121498

I tried to find something,still looking,think that was the winter the Southern Plains had a major ice storm,but could be wrong

Think thats when we had the snow dome,sure winter was crap here

I dont think what he is saying is releated to the BS,It seems to me there is a potential typhoon possibly gonna happen into parts of East Asia via a KW.Seems like to me this should build the heights up if it goes into South East China,then into Korea and Japan you could possibly see the upper and mid level ridge build into this region,this is a warm sign for us depending on the tropics this time of year..JMHO

Seems possibly like the the gfs is showing a possible phoon into East Asia along with maybe some TG into North America,but could be a battle ground between the Pac and Atlantic.To far out to trust any model right now.but it wouldnt surprise me as we head towards the end of the month.Nino should get cranking as we get into August.Thinking this is gonna be like winter of 2015-2016 now maybe not that extreme,could be a good late severe fall into early winter,to far out to really know ATM

Models continue to show the Mid Level ridge building possibly into the Sea of Japan,Yellow Sea,this so far looks to be a Baui front where along the boundary you should see MCS systems with torrential rains into portions of East Asia.After this breaks down you could see height rises into East Asia ,sure seems possible but like Jeff said lots unkown there is not really a big ridge into Korea and Japan but more into China we might possibly get spared,but several days to seemingly to watch

The MJO is headed towards a wet pattern once again,,keep seeing signs of A Mid Level ridge trying to build up into South East Asia by the ensembles,if they continue this as we head into July later seems possible the we see the same towards the mid of July,with some dirty ridge.

Lots of convection into Mid Tn right now,thought it might die out but seem to have gotten better,with clearing to the west this could rejuvenate storms later on,certainly should be for West Tn

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sat Jul 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF TENNESSEE...KENTUCKY...WEST VIRGINIA...VIRGINIA...MARYLAND AND DELAWARE...PARTS OF SOUTHERN OHIO... PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI...AND EASTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms, and a couple of evolving clusters of storms, will pose a risk for severe wind and hail in a corridor from the Mid South and lower Ohio and Tennessee Valley east-northeastward into the Mid Atlantic region Sunday through Sunday night ...Synopsis... Models indicate that split flow across the eastern Pacific into western North America may become more amplified into and through this period. Within this regime, significant cyclogenesis is forecast to proceed later today through Sunday across the Canadian Prairies, with a trailing cold front advancing southeast of the international border, across much of the Northwest and northern Rockies into the northern Great Plains by 12Z Monday. While mid-level ridging builds downstream of the cyclone, across northwestern Ontario, southern Hudson and James Bays into adjacent portions of Quebec, positively tilted mid-level troughing in a branch to the south is forecast to shift slowly east-northeastward across the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. It appears that this will be accompanied by a broad weak surface low, migrating along a diffuse surface frontal zone (initially extending from the northern Mid Atlantic and Ohio Valley into the southern Great Plains), and developing surface troughing to the lee of the Blue Ridge. ...Mid Atlantic/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into Ark-La-Tex... Along and just south of the weak frontal zone, the boundary-layer may be initially impacted by a considerable amount of remnant convective outflow. How the associated outflow boundaries evolve through midday Sunday remains unclear, but insolation along and to their south likely will contribute to steepening low-level lapse and moderate to large CAPE in the presence of seasonably high moisture content. This appears likely to occur beneath a belt of 30-40+ kt (perhaps stronger where augmented by prior convection) west-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer, which may prove conducive to renewed strong and organizing convective development Sunday afternoon and evening. Isolated supercell structures are possible initially, posing a risk for severe hail, before potentially damaging wind gusts with evolving clusters becomes the more prominent hazard.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 428 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Alabama Northwest Georgia Far southwest North Carolina Middle to southeast Tennessee * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 1225 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Slow-moving multicell clusters should spread east-southeast this afternoon with a primary threat of scattered damaging winds.

Short range models are whiffing again URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 427 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Arkansas Southern Illinois Far southwest Indiana Western Kentucky Southeast Missouri Western Tennessee * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 1205 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Several areas of storm clusters are expected to persist and regenerate this afternoon. A couple of these should develop bowing structures capable of producing damaging winds and a brief tornado or two. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 125 statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles west northwest of Salem IL to 5 miles south of Jonesboro AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

We had another round of storms last evening.Had my lawn people clean up my yard yesterday and now it dont even look like they touched it this morning again.Had some stronger winds last night.Short range models have been nothing but bad the last few days,so who knows about today.

We are at 97..HI 113 was gonna go walk in the park earlier,my body said stay in the AC

Looks nothing but wind and maybe hail,the lower levels look meh.Typical summer time storms ,be a long shot to get a upgrade..IMO

Sorry about the typo above,i never seen something like this before,..lol.Pretty sure now when the MCS came by the tree got struck by lightning and when the OFB came trough the winds were even more impressive from the OFB than the the MCS and took it down,Pretty cool still