jaxjagman

We went though North Ga this morning going to Jeckylll Island (my son has a gymnastics meet)and there was no fires.This must be something else.The drought monitor shows no drought other than an abnormal drought in SC.But there were no fires in N/Ga

I reported it also.It was malware, trying to get your credit card info.Glad the post is gone as well.

Chance for some thunderstorms the end of the week.Euro has better instability right now.Best chance of severe would be in the Western Valley,right now. Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sun Apr 08 2018 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... The primary feature of interest during the extended period will be a deep/amplified mid-level trough that will reach the central US by D6/Fri. As it does so, strengthening west/southwesterly flow aloft will transport steep lapse rates over much of the southern/central Plains. Meanwhile, a robust low-level mass response will feature a narrow corridor of enhanced poleward theta-e transport, generally from eastern Texas to the lower Missouri Valley. As a dry line and cold front accelerate east across the region, low/mid-level ascent is forecast to strengthen sufficiently to overcome convective inhibition and promote thunderstorms from eastern Texas to parts of the Midwest through Friday night. While medium-range guidance continues to exhibit run-to-run variability with regards to the amplitude/timing of the trough, most deterministic/ensemble guidance suggest strong/severe thunderstorms will be most likely from eastern Texas to the Ozarks and Mid-South Friday afternoon through the overnight. Within this corridor, vigorous low/mid-level wind fields should overlap adequate surface-based buoyancy, such that all severe hazards may be possible with maturing convection. Therefore, a 15-percent probability has been introduced with this forecast cycle. Further refinements of this area (with some potential for a northward expansion) will likely be needed in future updates. The trough will advance further east through D7/Sat-D8/Sun, with pockets of strong/severe convection potentially persisting across areas from the Ohio Valley south to the Gulf Coast. Despite this potential, uncertainties regarding availability of adequate instability, the eastward evolution of the trough, and subsequent timing/placement of stronger convection remain too high to introduce probabilities beyond D6/Fri. ..Picca.. 04/08/2018

NMME shows a weak Nino into summer

There's a chance,we'll see

Yup,i agree.Asia is crapping out on today's models in the long range,like you said though there is more potential for a storm around the 20-21st which what the weeklies are showing,but this might be just a brief lull and maybe a more pattern change?.CFS has been trending warmer towards the end of the month.Also we've seen some outbreaks when the MJO gets into the IO 8-10 days later but the MJO on the Euro is active while the GEFS wants to crash it into the COD but this is typical GEFS trying to stay out of the IO.But the Euro shows it relative strong until it gets into 3 and then goes into the COD.Nothing is imminent right now due to the lagging SSW,it's throwing off any severe percursors you mentioned.But i'd watch this system around the 20-21st,it has potential

Maybe,short range models aren't coming in very well.Maybe this run will cycle better

The more i think of it, i think 2010-2011,wasn't that bad.The warm up actually started in Feb. as Jeff said,but it was a early winter sort of speaking.I had to go back and do some Wiki because i remember the big snow when i was living in Lawrenceburg was around this time frame in Jan of 2011.Also just after this was the bowling ball that came off the west coast and went due east across Nashville.Nashville got socked and we got nothing but rain in Lawrenceburg. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/snow/201101 I think this was a more a two part LaNina.In"MJJ" of 2011 above on the chart the ENSO went neutral (negative) -0.4 this was no longer classified a Nina.But during"JJA" the ENSO went back to a Nina,but you could probably just say it was a Nina. But f you want to compare this Nina back to the 2010-2011 i might look at 2011-2012 instead,but that's not going to happen.March of 2012 was brutal warm as well as March of 2011 The last 15 years the coldest March colder than this one in 2018 was back into 2005 coming off a weak Nino

2010-11,i'm sure many of us thought this was going to be a great cold winter.Much BN temps "DJF" but when we got into"JFM",we torched.This warmth started into January and never let go

More Modoki looking right now

Official Nina

You guys warmed up today ..lol

Been kinda busy today or i'd post more.Tornado watch for Western Valley URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 27 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 135 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Much of Arkansas Southern and East-Central Illinois Southwest Indiana Western Kentucky Southeast Missouri Northwest Mississippi Western Tennessee * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to rapidly form along a cold front this afternoon and track across the watch area. Very strong wind fields and instability suggest the potential for fast-moving severe storms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Strong tornadoes will be possible with the most intense storms. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 105 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles south southwest of Hot Springs AR to 65 miles north of Evansville IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Tue Apr 03 2018 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST OHIO...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS SOUTHWEST TO EASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE ENH RISK AREA...AND EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO LAKE ERIE AND SOUTHWEST TO EASTERN TEXAS... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT AND ENH RISK AREAS... CORRECTED FOR GENERAL THUNDER OUTLINE AREA ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms -- including risk for wind damage, large hail and a few tornadoes -- are expected from parts of the Ohio Valley southwestward into the mid and lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valleys, and into the southern Plains. An enhanced threat for wind damage may occur across parts of the lower Ohio/mid Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys. ...Synopsis... An energetic short-wave upper trough -- phased with a weaker system crossing northern Mexico at the start of the period -- will sweep across the Plains and into the Great Lakes and Midwest/Ohio Valley today and tonight. Flanking the progressing trough, ridging will persist over both the western and eastern portions of the country. At the surface, a low is forecast to deepen with time while shifting northeast out of the Kansas/Oklahoma vicinity across Missouri and into the Midwest through the day. In conjunction, a sharpening cold front will sweep southeast across the central U.S. a the leading edge of a surge of cold Canadian air. By early evening, the front should extend from the low -- over the northern Indiana vicinity -- southwest across the lower Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys and into east Texas, with a band of showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity of the advancing boundary. By the end of the period, the front will likely be cresting the Appalachians, while convection will likely have weakened to below severe levels. ...Lower Great Lakes southwest to parts of eastern Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley... As surface low pressure deepens/shifts northeastward toward the Midwest through the day, low-level warm/moist advection will allow the spread of higher theta-e air to advance into the Midwest/Ohio Valley ahead of the progressing cold front. With the associated upper system remaining well to the west through the day and thus little to no height falls during the day, capping should largely hinder convective development within the pre-frontal warm sector. By 20 to 21Z, both operational NAM and GFS runs along with most CAMs do initiate pre-frontal storms over East Texas, despite the forecast capping within the warm sector. Should this convection develop, and in cellular manner, very large hail would be possible given the degree of CAPE. More likely however, storm development will await the frontal approach, and become largely anafrontal with time. Still, risk for hail and locally damaging winds is evident, along with a tornado or two, as storms evolve and spread eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley area and -- eventually -- the central Gulf Coast states. Farther north, weaker instability but stronger flow aloft -- and stronger ascent -- is anticipated, particularly into the late afternoon and evening hours as the front sharpens ahead of the quickly advancing upper system. Given the aforementioned capping in the warm sector, storms initiating near the boundary should quickly grow upscale into at least broken linear mode, with damaging winds to become the primary severe risk. Some hail will be possible, along with a few tornadoes -- especially with initial, possibly more cellular storm mode. As convection grows upscale, strong west-southwest flow aloft suggests fast storm motion and potential for relatively widespread damaging winds. The corridor for the greatest damaging-wind risk -- corresponding with the ENH risk area -- will likely be concentrated from southern Indiana/southwest Ohio southwestward into the Mississippi Delta region. By mid to late evening, gradual/diurnal weakening of convection is expected, with severe risk to wane into the overnight hours as convection reaches the Appalachians. ..Goss.. 04/03/2018

Here's a abstract for the MJO,i've been out of town and just got back or i'd have replied back sooner. Abstract The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) has been linked to weather variability in the midlatitudes via its associated overturning circulations and Rossby wave trains that redistribute the thermal and mass fields at higher latitudes. This work examines the relationship between the MJO and violent tornado outbreaks in the United States. A census of events shows that violent tornado outbreaks during March–April–May (MAM) are more than twice as frequent during phase 2 of the Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) index as during other phases or when the MJO was deemed inactive. Composite analyses show the global circulation patterns simultaneously associated with the MJO and the tornado outbreaks and also indicate the most favored low-frequency circulation pattern that precedes tornado outbreaks in RMM phase 2. An index of 300-hPa geopotential height data is generated by projecting 60-day mean values onto the composite low-frequency pattern. When that index exceeds one standard deviation and the MJO is in RMM phase 2 with an amplitude exceeding one standard deviation during MAM, violent tornado outbreaks occur 50% of the time, relative to the average frequency of less than 4%. Results demonstrate that the anomalous large-scale midlatitude circulation modulated by the MJO and lower-frequency signals can make conditions more or less favorable for tornado outbreaks. https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00173.1 Here's a paper on the GWO https://www.researchgate.net/publication/284217379_Tornado_frequency_in_the_United_States_related_to_global_relative_angular_momentum

The Euro looks more the GFS tonight,either way some parts of the Valley would see some strong storms possibly Tuesday

No one likes warm weather here.We had a severe t-storm warning here first time in about six months.Unusual we didn't have severe systems come through even in the winter here.But anyways the best lightning i've seen in months .Knocked our power off for a few seconds,not use to thunder but i know it scared the P out of me..lol

Looking down the road, Asia is fixing to get cranking in the long range by day 6-7 day period.The MJO is being shown into the IO the 2nd week of March,the AAM is crashing almost -3 sigma.Papers documented with the the MJO getting into the IO and the AAM gets into lower phase 2 shows large tornadoes would be possible during this period in a Nina year.It don't mean for the Valley,just worth mentioning

Also some good analogs showing up,for Tuesday

Chance for some severe storms Tuesday into Tuesday evening by both the GFS and Euro.But as to what extent is yet to be determined.The key player for what i see is how the models this afternoon handle a shortwave trough.The GFS is showing the feature suppressed into Dixie Alley while the Euro is showing this trough into the TN Valley.This would have more ramifications with severe for us in the Valley "IF" the Euro is right.

17 Mar 2018 1012.51 1000.90 35.90 6.47 1.33 18 Mar 2018 1013.04 1006.25 12.83 7.15 1.58 19 Mar 2018 1012.24 1009.65 -7.28 7.35 1.57 20 Mar 2018 1010.11 1007.75 -8.38 7.51 1.49 21 Mar 2018 1008.59 1005.75 -6.08 7.82 1.45 22 Mar 2018 1010.01 1004.20 8.14 8.52 1.65 23 Mar 2018 1012.84 1003.70 24.08 9.45 2.06 24 Mar 2018 1014.29 1005.35 23.12 9.73 2.42 25 Mar 2018 1014.02 1007.00 13.93 9.42 The big drop in the SOI into Mid March would show volatility around the time frame mentioned above

Asia shows a trough going through Mongolia by day 7 on the Euro then a upper low into China,the typhoon is still being shown to die out.Either way towards the end of week one into week 2 of April we could be once again looking at a good system.The whole chorus this late winter into early spring has been suppressed systems.But still i see some good signals.On the RRWT lifted Index it's showing the lift tapping into the GOM and coming into the lower OV,with the BSR maps showing a warm front lifting northward into the lower OV with a cold front on it's heels.

See some snow NE of yall

That's a severe thunderstorm above,for some reason my icons reset