michsnowfreak

We were talking about winters of the past and those that ended up on the futility side. This winter has sucked so far and I have no idea where you get the idea that I have not been forthcoming about that. I've been frustrated as hell lol. But I can't include or exclude this winter in any discussion of past winters for another 3+ months after the last snow has fallen because I don't know what's going to happen, nor does anyone else. Also, I'm not sure how they measured back in the day. Or how long the 6 hour method has been in place

Most places have had their times with measurement issues. DTW had some from approx 1995-2005, Although the only winter it really irritated me was 2004-05 because it was a snowy winter that was under measured. They reported 63.8" but I had near 80" (there was a freak storm here that missed them. But I would still estimate they were over 70). I remember a while back someone said in Canada they just applied 10-1 ratios to everything? Not sure how valid that was or is. All that said, the years that were listed for toronto make sense. 2006-07 was a synoptic nightmare. But we got saved in michigan with an unusual amount of lake effect snow. 15-16 Was a warm winter so it makes sense to me but I do not recall what was going on in Toronto. Because we had crazy gradients around here, from way below avg snow in Toledo to above avg in flint. We all know 11-12 sucked. Now 09-10 was decent here but I happen to remember there was some crazy things going on where it would be snowing in DC and raining in Maine and toronto kept getting the shaft.

Good sign for us to your north!

Yes, indeed. April 06, 1886 took a non memorable winter and made it live on in local lore. My reference to stat padding was agreeing with snowstorms that November and April snow usually does not last long. I actually hate the term stat padding, but I know the context in which it's used on here lol. But again, my point was that it still counts towards the season total. A less extreme but more recent example would be the November 11, 2019 storm. Over 9 inches of snow which stayed on the groun 10 days. There are exceptions to every rule. Plus, the opposite of stat padding would be those times when you get a 2" snowfall and it stays on the ground the next 10 days without any more measurable snow. It still only counts for 2 inches in the record, but you got to enjoy 10 days of a wintry look. So many different aspects to winter.

I don't disagree that april snowfall is stat padding, but it still counts.

It's more than likely just a temporary trend, but we've really been on a spree of some decent April and November snowfalls in recent years lol. They just get overshadowed by our pissy Decembers and snowy Februarys (again all probably temporary trends).

4 top 5 futility, yikes I would be as ornery as cromartie. I would definitely agree that nobody in the forum knows futility as much as Toronto (relative to their average that is). We've had futility months and we certainly have had undesirable winters. But this is why I constantly harping on the fact that regardless of how bad a pattern looks, when you live in a region that gets snow thru April, you just can't jump the gun early.

Oh top 10 is definitely futility. I'd say anything over 20" is just below avg. The lowest winter of my lifetime is Detroits 16th least snowy (1997-98, 23.4"), although I was in my mother's womb during 1982-83 lol (11th least snowy, 20.0").

Looks like some good Lake effect Snow in Michigan after the storm passes. But good luck on knowing where the bands will set up until now cast time.

I'll take the hires Nam. If only the weather was easy aa picking your favorite model run lol.

Snow slowly melted throughout the day today, got up to 37 and remains damp.

The Euro amd gfs could not be more different 24 hours out here.

Oh I know. I just meant early on. A few hours of temperature spike and dry slot are imminent.

At the same time, it seems realistic to think that dynamic cooling will occur in the late afternoon/early evening with those rates.

1.5" of snow this morning. Very scenic early but getting melty now with the warm nose.

Theres a difference between below avg snow & futility though. Feb Ninos tend to be a mixed bag snow-wise.

Do you have a rain gauge?

Did the city proper get any accumulation?

I'm super jealous but as I recall you were due. So enjoy!

Still a lot to sort out. Icon has a further qest track but also throws a lot more snow out this. UK kind of between Icon and Euro for here with CMC and gfs pretty much in agreement with each other. Ensemble means for all three seem to be following their ops.

Yes, it is better. I'm also rooting for slightly weaker, however a stronger storm will not necessarily be a complete redo of this storm. The Arctic hounds are waiting in the wings behind Fri/Sat storm whereas there's no cold air with this storm. Of course all that said I definitely want slightly weaker.

I dont get the confrontation, I really dont. I mean we all want whats best for our backyards. And raindance definitely has weather knowledge, but his bashing of you and others is not cool. I mean, I hope all snow lovers get to enjoy some, Albuquerque included, but it seems as if he is getting joy out of hoping the east coast gets no snow. If a storm will give the east coast rain and me snow, of course I say let it rain in Boston! But if Im out of the game (as Albuquerque would be in any eastern storm), why would I care? I guess Ill be petty too....a warm, below avg snow winter here in MI is still colder and snowier than Albuquerque

Im not a good analog person lol. I can tell you how much snow fell when, but cant tell you the origin of it. I mean, we got 16.7" from a bowling ball type storm GHDII and have had many gulf lows produce the general 6-12. Also, will be interesting to see how LES performs in the storms wake.

I thought this was interesting from DTX: Still early to expect high forecast confidence as the event appears dependent on the interaction of a strong shortwave through Mexico and very strong trough digging southward across the Canadian Rockies. What is interesting is that both of these potential vorticity maxima appear to be born out of a Pacific trough sometime Wednesday. The potential exists for heavy snowfall across the area and significant winter impacts this weekend.

I thought we would get a heavy burst but then with rain and temps rising to 40 we would just see it washed away. Would have done nothing but give a little padding to our meager 3.1" season to date total.