michsnowfreak

March Nino snowstorms are definitely common. You would still see snow in a colder pattern in Jan/Feb tho. Remember, you arent in Atlanta anymore lol.

I got 37.1" of snow in a +5.0F winter last year. Temps are not the end all to begin with for people north of 40N. But when it comes to those temp departure maps, people really start to lose focus when getting hung up on departures. When you see Canada reds and southeast blues....its still way colder in Canada than the southeast. Average Jan high/low is 14/0 in Winnipeg, 13/-6 in Saskatoon, 0/-15 in Yellowknife....versus 43/25 in DC, 47/28 in Richmond, 53/33 in Atlanta.

A lot of people here say the same thing, It seems like the seasons are getting pushed later. I look at it as an annoying december reprieve. We have no problem getting early and late snows, but Dec has become less harsh and Feb more harsh. Though we won't this year, we actually have lucked out quite a bit here with White Christmases, but the decembers themselves have mostly sucked outside of 2 the last decade. Meanwhile, February (outside of a couple of clunkers) has been snow heaven.

Dec has been horrendous. We had snow on Halloween, snow Thanksgiving weekend, and will have absolutely no snow Christmas week. Hope its a white easter lol. Obviously winter will come, but the snowbelts in the North may suffer most of all, because they're the ones who rely on stacking feet upon feet and they have no base to start with.

That's why i'm so into weather stats. Weather has always been fascinating and always will be. I brought up the record warmth In December of 1877 & 1881. But adding on to that, the winters of 1877-78, 1879-80, and 1881-82 were very mild winters that featured at least 1 or 2 record warm winter months. Sandwiched between those were brutally cold winters of 1878-79 and 1880-81. I can't imagine what was going on with the jet stream and all other factors that 5 year stretch.

I would assume

boston doesnt even keep track of snowcover anymore. And how can they lose 30-days when they only averaged 35-40 days (1"+) to begin with. I mean I dont live there, but sounds like a bunch of crap to me. Here is nyc avg days with 1" snowcover NYC 1920s- 29 days 1930s- 21 days 1940s- 32 days 1950s- 15 days 1960s- 28 days 1970s- 25 days 1980s- 19 days 1990s- M 2000s- 20 days 2010s- 27 days

White Christmases havent really been affected away from the east coast. And the east coast has seen its share of early season snowstorms over the past few decades. Seems flukey to me. Since 2000... New York City: 1 of 23 Christmases white Providence: 2 of 23 Christmases white Albany: 7 of 23 Christmases white Pittsburgh: 7 of 23 Christmases white Portland: 9 of 23 Christmases white Chicago: 9 of 23 Christmases white Cleveland: 10 of 23 Christmases white Detroit: 12 of 23 Christmases white Buffalo: 15 of 23 Christmases white Minneapolis: 16 of 23 Christmases white Burlington: 17 of 23 Christmases white For Boston, from 1923-1944, only 1 Christmas was white. Though its happened several times, Boston has never had more than 2 White Christmases in a row.

National snowcover is 15.4%. Last Christmas, 53.0% of the nation was covered in snow.

Notable Christmas Events in Detroit's records 1871 -- 4.2” of snow fell on Dec 22nd 1882 -- 6.1” of snow fell on Dec 23rd 1884 -- 4.2” of snow fell on Christmas Eve. 1886 -- 6.5” of snow fell on Christmas Eve. 1889 -- 61 degrees on Christmas Eve accompanied by thunderstorms! 1895 -- 59 degrees on Christmas is followed by 6.5” of snow the next day 1901 -- A Norman Rockwell Christmas scene with "moist snow" falling late Christmas Eve into Christmas Day, with 0.62" liquid, and depth of snow 5.5". Snow "adhered" to everything. Unfortunately, a high of 41 degrees melted much of the snow. 1915 -- Snow began around sunset Christmas Eve and continued into Christmas day, totaling 8.0”. Some rain mixed in at the end but did little to mar the scene. 1929 -- The snow depth is 12” inches, the 2nd deepest amount of snow on Christmas day in Detroit's records (behind 1951). This is thanks to a 13.8” storm on December 18/19th. 1931 to 1933 -- Yuck! Three consecutive Christmas Eve's topped 50 degrees (57, 57, 50) though only one (1932) topped 50 on Christmas Day. 1945 -- Late on Christmas Eve and into Christmas morning an ice storm occurred, with the icy pavements causing almost impossible travel & walking conditions. The rainfall of 1.16” is a record for Dec 25. 1951 -- After a deep snowcover to begin with, heavy snow falls Christmas day, heaviest in the morning, dropping 6.2” and bringing the snow depth to 13”, the deepest White Christmas in Detroit's record. We paid for it as the next 6 Christmases were not white. 1957 -- A very rainy Christmas week. 0.94" fell on the 18th, 0.18" on the 19th, 1.00" on the 20th, and 0.99" on the 25th. All wet, no white. 1964 -- After six straight White Christmases, a warm and wet one. 1965 -- A very heavy rainstorm set in Christmas Eve, flooding area basements. After parts of the Detroit area got up to 4” of rain (3.75" at DTW, 2.50" at City Airport), the rain turned to snow on Christmas day. Only 0.5” of snow fell but winds of 50 mph caused blowing snow. 1973 –- Christmas morning started with a heavy 7” snowcover but all day rain & temps in 40s dropped snowcover to 2” slush by evening. 1974 -- Though it was 40 degrees on Christmas Eve, the snow depth was still 6” from the 19.3”-inch storm of the 1st (and falls after that). 1975 -- Though the snow depth of 2” inches was good for a White Christmas, a storm hit on the 26th dropping 6.3” more of snow. 1979 -- A wet & warm Christmas. 1.58” of rain fell Christmas Eve & Day with temps falling from the low 50s through the 40s. 1980 -- After a fresh 3-inch” snowfall Christmas Eve, bitter cold set in with a low of -8F on Christmas morn. 1982 – A record 64 degrees in Detroit is accompanied by thunderstorms. 1983 -- Mother Nature payback. The COLDEST Christmas one year after the WARMEST Christmas! High/low 4F/-10F. 1990 -- Fresh from a 5-inch” fall on the 23rd, the 1990s starts with the only White Christmas of 1”+ of the decade (tho a Trace was on the ground in 1993, 1995, & 1996). 2000 – Detroit had 6” of snow on the ground, but 15-18” covered the ground from the northern suburbs towards Flint. 2002 -- Perfectly timed Christmas snowstorm. Snow began around 10:30 p.m. Christmas Eve and ended early afternoon Christmas Day, totaling 6.4” at Detroit. 2003 -- For the second year in a row, snow fell Christmas Eve & Day. Though only 1.7” fell at Detroit, up to 3” fell nearby. 2004 -- A cold, white Christmas. After Detroit saw 8.9” of snow on the 22nd, the low dipped to -4F Christmas morning. 2008 -- Christmas Eve rain atop a foot snowpack froze into a glittery 7” snow crust for Christmas Day. 2013 –- The official snow depth of a trace on Christmas morn was a bit or irony in the historic 2013-14 winter, as snow buried the ground nearly constantly from early December to late March, with one of the only times of scattered depth being the Christmas to New Years period. 2015 –- A springlike Christmas Week saw temps hit the 50s daily from the 21st-25th. The high was 58F on Christmas Eve & 50F Christmas Day. 2017 –- A 4.5” snowfall hit during the afternoon & evening Christmas Eve, then on Christmas day, snow squalls dropped another inch with blowing snow, falling temps, and bitter wind chills. 2020 –- Snow developed around 10:30pm Christmas Eve and continued throughout Christmas Day, dropping 3.0” at Detroit. 2022 – With a few inches of drifty snow already down, more snow developed late Christmas Eve and lasted through Christmas Morning, dropping another 2.4” at Detroit and bringing the depth up to 4”.

You guys are talking about a White Christmas, I had just looked a bunch of historical odds on this. I have mentioned this before, but no idea why Boston doesnt do snow depth anymore since 2003. Stations in the box nws are literally the ONLY ones I can find anywhere (of places that get snow) that dont do snow depth. White Christmases in Detroit are pretty much 50/50 (officially 47%), and the last 20 years saw 10 white, 10 not...2022, 2020, 2017, 2016, 2012, 2010, 2008, 2005, 2004, 2003. Bostons historical probability shows 1 in 4 Christmases should be white, yet they have only probably had 2 in the past 20 years (based on what you guys said). It seems more flukey than anything that snowfall increased and white christmases disappeared during the 2000s/10s. Midwest/Great Lakes Marquette – 95% (1961-2022) International Falls – 95% (1948-2022) Sault Ste Marie – 94% (1931-2022) Alpena – 79% (1916-2022) Minneapolis – 72% (1899-2022) Green Bay – 68% (1948-2022) Grand Rapids – 64% (1903-2022) Dubuque – 57% (1896-2022) Flint –-- 56% (1921 – 2022) Lansing – 55% (1863-2022) Milwaukee – 50% (1893-2022) Detroit – 47% (1900-2022) Toledo –- 46% (1893-2022) Chicago – 45% (1901-2022) Cleveland – 42% (1893-2022) Fort Wayne – 40% (1909-2022) Omaha – 37% (1948-2022) Indianapolis – 28% (1896-2022) Columbus – 27% (1948-2022) Kansas City – 21% (1893-2022) Louisville – 15% (1900-2022) Northeast Caribou – 93% (1940-2022) Burlington – 74% (1896-2022) Portland (ME) – 59% (1893-2022) Buffalo – 58% (1893-2022) Albany – 42% (1938-2022) Pittsburgh – 31% (1948-2022) Boston – 24% (1891-2003) New York City – 14% (1912-2022) Philadelphia – 13% (1893-2022) Washington DC – 10% (1893-2022) Mountain West Salt Lake City – 52% (1948-2022) Denver – 38% (1921-2022)

We all know this year will not be kind to those looking for a White Christmas, but here are the historical probabilities for some places. It is interesting to note that the memories of those who claim Christmas was always white are almost always...wrong. Locally I find it interesting that no matter how harsh or mild December was, White Christmases in the Detroit area have remained relatively steady (a 50/50 shot basically) regardless of the month of December's overall weather. 10 of the past 20 were White. The worst decade for White Christmases locally was the 1990s. Midwest/Great Lakes Marquette – 95% (1961-2022) International Falls – 95% (1948-2022) Sault Ste Marie – 94% (1931-2022) Alpena – 79% (1916-2022) Minneapolis – 72% (1899-2022) Green Bay – 68% (1948-2022) Grand Rapids – 64% (1903-2022) Dubuque – 57% (1896-2022) Flint –-- 56% (1921 – 2022) Lansing – 55% (1863-2022) Milwaukee – 50% (1893-2022) Detroit – 47% (1900-2022) Toledo –- 46% (1893-2022) Chicago – 45% (1901-2022) Cleveland – 42% (1893-2022) Fort Wayne – 40% (1909-2022) Omaha – 37% (1948-2022) Indianapolis – 28% (1896-2022) Columbus – 27% (1948-2022) Kansas City – 21% (1893-2022) Louisville – 15% (1900-2022) Northeast Caribou – 93% (1940-2022) Burlington – 74% (1896-2022) Portland (ME) – 59% (1893-2022) Buffalo – 58% (1893-2022) Albany – 42% (1938-2022) Pittsburgh – 31% (1948-2022) Boston – 24% (1891-2003) New York City – 14% (1912-2022) Philadelphia – 13% (1893-2022) Washington DC – 10% (1893-2022) Mountain West Salt Lake City – 52% (1948-2022) Denver – 38% (1921-2022)

Back to the weather...all ensembles in agreement that the warmth starts to scour out bigtime after Christmas, so while Im never ready to rush Christmas, it will certainly be nice to turn the page to January weather-wise. This December will go down with 1877, 1881, 1889, & 2015 in the shit category.

Few things. #1) Where can you browse toronto's climate data online? I really can't find non-US stations or at least detailed data of them. And they need to get with it (updating the normals) as it's almost 2024 haha #2) If you REALLY have been following, you would know nobodys denying climate change, they're mocking a troll that everyone is tired of. Have you ever actually seeing some of the things he has said? Most of them arent even acknowledged or replied to, they are so outlandish and ridiculous. He doesn't like stats. Just will say your in denial if you don't think Toronto winters will warm 30° in 20 years. #3) funny you mention having warm Decembers close together. 3 of Detroit's top 4 warmest Decembers occurred in 1877, 1881, 1889.

Beijing saw an all-time December record low of -6F (previous record -1F). Last winter was the worst for tree damage in memory here. Several wet snowstorms caused havoc galore to to the trees. Hoping for more powder this year, but any snow is better than no snow!

Chicago averages around 20F colder in winter than Atlanta, so thats one thing to keep in mind. And averages are just that, averages. If youre new to this region genuinely trying to understand how the weather in Chicago works, the LAST person you need to listen to is a troll. Strong El Nino Decembers are about the worst winter weather (for cold/snow lovers) we see in this region. A more favorable MJO may have given you a few more thread the needle slushes and a few more murky gray days with no diurnal temp swing, but it would still suck. Bottom line...once the new year sets in, changes are afoot. To what extent remains to be seen, but this garbage pattern is flushing away. Februarys have often been the harshest month of winter the past few decades, and that may happen again this year. Once we get into mid-winter, in most patterns you worry about storm tracks more than blues and reds on a temp map this far north, unless its an all out torch (like now), which no one is showing for Jan/Feb. Obviously in the south where you are from, seeing blues on a temp map in mid winter is eye candy, but this far north, it can sometimes mean suppression.

Its coming about as expected for a strong Nino. Some snow/cold shots in Oct/Nov, a terrible Dec...the rest of the season tbd. The mild weather gives you plenty of time to ensure the green paint job on your grass is on point for when the cold hits Jan-Mar.

For sure. Never adding any actual substance or weather discussion, just trolling away & spouting nonsense since he lives in a 4 seasons humid continental climate rather than the tropical one he never will.

Not sure how long you've lived in Chicago, however, you don't need unseasonable cold in midwinter to get snow. Threading the needle is more for atrocious pattern's like the one we are in now.

Flurries and snow showers all day but they melted as fell here. Some heavier squalls dropped anywhere from a coating to a half inch though nearby. Have a bit of snow dust in the cracks now at night, but not enough to call it a tenth. Some northern suburbs had 1 to 2 inches, with 2.2" in White Lake. Flint had 1.5", DTW 0.1"

That winter saw a big early season snowstorm in Nov, a torch in Dec, and more up and down in Jan though several cold snaps and snows. I don't recall what models had. It's enough to keep them straight now, nevermind what they showed 8 years ago lol.

This year we had snow on Halloween, snow Thanksgiving weekend....and assumably no snow Christmas week.

Just curious. Are you going by longterm average or 30 year normals? (Didn't know if they did 30 year normals in Canada lol). In Detroit, the 1991-2020 normals show a clear trend of less snow in Dec and more in Jan/Feb. I know the long term climate record had more in Dec and less in Jan/Feb than current norms. Nov- 1.9, Dec- 8.9, Jan- 14.0, Feb- 12.5, Mar- 6.2, Apr 1.5

To add to this, around this time in 2005 and 2016 we were enjoying a postcard perfect Christmas season full of snow and cold. What happened after New Year's each of those years sucked. Weather patterns do change

Exactly. it's so all relative. and I have to agree, the minor changes will obviously affect the more southern climates (although they still will be able to get occasional snow storms), but it actually may be a help more so than a hindrance to places here in the north. A little bit more moisture can go a long way. In addition to numerous mild winters of yesteryear I discussed above, there were also a handful of winters scattered about in the earlier days of the climate record that had cold temperatures but were very dry and anemic for snowfall. You rarely see that anymore. In fact, there are some stories from winters of the late 1700s and early 1800s, before any official climate records existed, that would tell stories of brutally cold winters in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan, but with very light snowfall. Last winter I don't need to tell you was grossly warmer than average. but we still got either side of 40 inches of snow in the Detroit area, in a winter that is far warmer than any progged increase to our avg temp. Because of storm tracks. Another thing slightly warmer winters do is they don't shut the Great Lakes in ice so quickly (how we got so many snowstorms in the ice locked 2013-14 winter is beyond me!) When there is open water, not only do you get Lake effect snow, but every system that crosses the lakes gets a boost from it. Especially here away from the real snow belt, the words "lake enhanced" are music to my ears when any little piece of synoptic energy crosses the lake. Much like the warmer ocean waters can really juice a noreaster for you guys. Bottom line. climate change exists. But so do unfavorable weather patterns. Don't do mother nature the disservice of always crediting one over the other.