michsnowfreak

I was talking specifically snow. The amount of snowfall and the number of large snowstorms during that timeframe I discussed FAR exceeded longterm averages. Again, to the point it was unlike anything in our period of record. While not as extreme, snowcover days were also comfortably above longterm averages. A winter with avg or slightly colder than avg temps and a lot of snow will absolutely seem more severe than a winter with well below avg temps and light snowfall. And with colder winters you run the risk of suppression and less snowfall. These last 2 winters were far warmer than average and absolutely not the norm. Snow climatology is a continually evolving thing, just like everything else in the weather. What happens in the coming winters all we can do is wait and see.

February has been quite sunny, but December & January were extremely cloudy, at least in MI.

I dont get the love for a freak warm March ala 2012. Thats why I have no problem rooting for what others consider miserable spring cold.

Bring on La Nina

Powerball is correct. Many cities in this sub had a record stretch of snow from about 2008-2015, and also a few great winters pre-2008 as well. As someone who is a local climate "expert" you always get somewhat of a balancing out, even if not fully. Averages do sway up and down over time, but we were far above our climo from the mid-00s to mid-10s. All that said, what I CAN tell you regarding ENSO is that most of the enso states (3 strengths of nino, neutral, 3 strengths of nina) have a higher probability of a certain type of winter, but usually with a few exceptions. The ONLY state that is a pretty much guarantee is what we had this year, a strong Nino. Some are better than others, but NOT ONCE have we had a good winter in a strong Nino, and this dates back to the 1870s. You can bank on a warm winter overall, and just hope that you get a few periods of fun. Meanwhile, a weak El Nino is often a cold and snowy winter here. A switch from El Nino to La Nina is often welcome news for our region. La Ninas often, though not always, are snowy, stormy winters. They also have a tendancy to be more front-loaded, though again, this is not always the case.

Oh from a cold/ice perspective I expect nothing. Strong El Nino plus a raging pacific made this a terrible winter. There is nothing, not an April 1886 redux or anything, that can change that. Im just more interested in a snowstorm, which really is a threat any given March/April regardless of the pattern (and when I say a threat, I mean regionally...who and when would get a storm, if it happens, no idea). Top 3 worst winters of my lifetime would be 1997-98, 2011-12, & 2023-24, but I cant rank this winter until the snow is for sure over. I suppose I should put an asterisk for 1988-89 but too young to remember, and the grand stinkeroo of 1982-83, but I wasnt born til May '83, so I was developing throughout the winter

To be honest, I completely forgot about May. Knew 2012 was a very hot summer though. But also to be fair, sometimes Feb 2015 doesnt get its fair due for its cold departures which were similar to March 2012's warm departures.

I always wonder what goes into those maps. I mean, if they arent using the official data, what ARE they using? It shows a slight decrease in southern MI, but the official data says otherwise. A regression line at Detroit from 1973-74 to 2022-23 shows snowfall increase from 44.8" to 45.5" and Flint saw a big increase from 46.5" to 55.5". Saginaw saw an increase from 42.3" to 50.3". Grand Rapids saw an increase from 67.9" to 79.8". Increases across the board at 1st order stations. NYC saw an increase from 22.2" to 30.7"., Boston saw an increase from 40.6" to 48.0". Using two places that have consistent data with no missing data...in the last 50 years NYC saw snowfall increase from 22.2" to 30.7" but 1"+ snowcover days decrease from 22 to 19. DTW saw snowfall increase from 44.8" to 45.5" but 1"+ snowcover days decrease from 53 to 46. So its snowing more but also melting more.

The cfs and euro weeklies, terrible as they have been, are insistent on mid-March cold. Im hoping it can spin up one of those mid-late March strong Nino snowstorms lol.

Me too. Im definitely interested in the insistence of the CFS and Euro weeklies (though the weeklies have been awful) on mid-late March cold because that matches up extremely well to many strong El Nino Marches (warm first half/cold second half, often a snowstorm). If it happens it happens, if it doesnt it doesnt. But not going to avoid discussion of it because its not what the masses want. El Nino or not, the amount of times we have seen a big mid to late March snowstorm after a mild winter is crazy.

Some people get sour when their dramatizations are consistently proven wrong by facts.

Theres a huge difference between a March/April cold snap and a sustained long-lasting winter pattern. Its kind of like how every year since 2013 some call for "morch" with any sight of a mild pattern (sometimes not even that) but it never has been close to happening. Warm spells? Yes. Morch? No.

The February 2018 warm up was impressive and lasted the better part of 10 days. And while it was able to wipe out the cold departures for the month, we spent the first 3 weeks of the month with deep snow cover and it was actually my favorite period of a pretty harsh winter. 2017-18 was the one true harsh winter since the "glory days" ended in 2015. The one thing that that February warm up did do is it made the month finish warmer than average, and that would be the only month from November to April that was not colder than average.

Not a met, but we experience these type of events fairly frequently here in the Great Lakes. I'm guessing you were right in the fgen band. Those can produce insane rates, massive snowflakes, and you can easily attain 20-1 or better ratios even if the temperature is around freezing. We've even had a few spring snows where that will happen and the surface is so warm it only sticks on the grass and not the cement, but the actual snow itself on the grass is a fluffy ratio. Then what will happen outside of the band is much lower ratio snowfall. So it would not be uncommon at all for "place A" to be in the fgen band, have a temperature around 30°, and finish with 0.45" liquid and 10.0" snow while "place B" just 20 miles away is not in the band, has a temperature around 30°, and finishes with 0.28" liquid and 3.3" snow or something like that.

Pretty! Glad you got some snow!

2020-21 was basically an average temperature and snow season here (a few inches above thanks to a crazy April 21st snowfall). But it was the product mostly of an excellent cold, snowy February. Which is another subjective thing. If you're going to do an "average" winter, is it better to coast all the way through with a well dispersed winter, or better to have some bad periods and some great periods cancel each other out? 2005-06 had a postcard perfect thanksgiving to christmas period with lots of cold and snow but the rest of the winter sucked. This is another reason I'm intrigued for a la nina for '24-25. The risk of a snowy December is much higher than climo here. Which would be extra sweet with quite a few shitty Decembers lately. Not sure how it translates in new england, but I do recall a few nina winters that front-loaded favored the Midwest & Lakes and back-loaded fvored the East Coast & New England, but not sure if those were the exception or the rule.

1882, 1976, 2017 are other impressive late Feb warmspells.

I'm thinking March starts warm then we get a mid or late month cold snap and someone gets a good snowstorm. Fits well with strong nino climatology, and the cfs is certainly selling that. Of course right now it's all speculation.

Sunset pic from today. Brisk wind too. Current wind chill is 0°. The weenie in me just realized something. After a stretch unlike anything in the climate record, repeatedly toppling heavy snow records in February like dominoes, this is now 2 very lean Februarys in a row. Shows that things always try to even out some. This is good news for a reversal of our dingy December trend

Actually, I do use that when I give my unofficial grade here. But there's nothing wrong with discussing the snowy and not snowy seasons too.

2019-20 thru 2021-22 came out as close to average as you can get here. Last winter was below average but nothing crazy. This year certainly seems ripe for a much larger negative departure but again, I hate discussing stuff like this in a matter of fact way considering we have 2 more months that we can get snowfall. Some lean snowfall years were practically a given. I would write the script a lot differently. Personally, I'd prefer a cold and dry winter if we're gonna do low snowfall (then maybe we'll have good snowcover). But most areas racked up such an excess of snow from the 2000s to mid-2010s that it would be an unrealistic dream to have that continue, and one would expect the 30-year rise in avg snowfall to level back off a bit.

As I've noted before, the disparity in snowfall the past several winters between SE Michigan & NW Ohio has been greater than is usual. That's just going by a lot of visuals many storms, another thing is Toledo's measurements are taken well south and West of the actual city, so it's probably even worse than the city itself the past several years. It seems that's usually the case in the real mild winters. The difference in colder winters is much less and every once in a while Toledo can even beat Detroit.

That is only thru mid-Feb last year, but its easily overdone in all of southern MI. Flint averages 52.0” 2019-20: 53.7” 2020-21: 48.6” 2021-22: 60.5” 2022-23: 46.5” 4-year cumulative +1.3” Detroit averages 45.0” 2019-20: 43.7” 2020-21: 44.9” 2021-22: 47.1” 2022-23: 37.1” 4-year cumulative -7.2” Grand Rapids averages 77.2” 2019-20: 53.5” 2020-21: 46.1” 2021-22: 71.0” 2022-23: 110.7” 4-year cumulative -27.5”

Exactly. Where and when has Missouri even seen 2 feet of snow lol? Kansas City has not seen a 12"+ snowfall since 1962, and although St. Louis saw one in 2013, they have never in recorded history seen a snowfall drop 16" or more, and only once (1912) had a storm drop over 14". If we are going to play it this way, let me count the storms where someone in the Detroit area got 14-18" in a storm (Jan 1/2, 1999, Dec 11/12, 2000, Jan 22, 2005, Jan 1, 2008, Jan 5/6, 2014, Feb 1/2, 2015, Nov 21, 2015). That list grows if you count any one over a foot. And yes, the lake enhancement is absolutely a factor why Chicago outdoes Detroit in the EXTREMELY RARE monster storms (and Detroit outdoes Chicago in 6-10" storms). Look at just west of Chicago to Rockford, IL. Their biggest storm of all time was 16.3" in 1918 (less than Detroit saw in 2015). The only time they have eclipsed a foot in modern times is 2011 (14.3") and prior to that, the last storm of a foot was in 1948. Again, talking ONE foot, not two. If the only thing in weather you want to see is something thats a once or twice in a lifetime event, and everything else is nothing, then weather is not the hobby for you lol.

One of the "fortunate" products of a slightly warmer winter climate has been an increase in precip and snowfall. When I look at the top 10 least snowy winters for Detroit, 5 of them were terrible, mild non-winters almost everywhere, but the other 5 can be blamed on terrible luck and the warm & wet to cold, dry & suppressed pattern.