michsnowfreak

Not that its any consolation, but remember Im talking days with 1"+ snowcover, so that doesnt count days of a Trace snowcover (a dusting or patches). Honestly TN averages less lol. Knoxville averages 5 days per winter of 1"+ snowcover & Nashville averages 6 days. For Detroit, the longterm avg is 50 days. Top 5 winters with least 1"+ snowcover days 10 days - 1936-37 11 days - 1931-32 12 days - 1918-19 15 days - 1982-83 16 days - 1952-53 Top 5 winters with most 1"+ snowcover days 96 days - 2013-14 91 days - 1977-78 89 days - 1947-48 89 days - 1981-82 86 days - 1966-67 Top 5 winters with least days of 0.1"+ snowfall 15 days - 1889-90 17 days - 1918-19 17 days - 1881-82 18 days - 1982-83 18 days - 1948-49 Top 5 winters with most days of 0.1"+ snowfall 62 days - 1925-26 61 days - 1884-85 56 days - 2013-14 52 days - 1880-81, 1892-93, 1903-04, 1911-12, 1985-86

The November update shows the Lakes with a negligible signal of milder than avg and no signal on precip.

Falls brisk winds & crisp air is here in full force. Turned the heat on yesterday morning as the house got down to 57F. Absolutely loving it.

I remember back in the day when the weather forums were at its peak, which also coincided with several severe winters, we had a group of folks who were big into the whole "give me a good storm" but disliked cold/snowcover. We had several good winter storms and extremely scenic snowfalls last year (White Christmas, Jan 22, Jan 25, Feb 22, Mar 3, Mar 10), just couldnt sustain anything. So I can see how someone with certain "requirements" as to what makes a good winter liked last winter. When youre talking about seeing 41% more snow in 2011-12, were you just talking Feb? Couldnt possibly be the season as a whole. Last Feb sucked snowfall wise, but talk about being due for a sh*t Feb after our historic stretch of snowy Febs. Lastly, Im a bit confused about the last line. Last winter was a below avg snow season (though I wouldnt call it "well below") with 2021-22 slightly above avg and the previous two seasons right near avg. DTW snow the last 4 seasons 2022-23: 37.1" (-6.9") 2021-22: 47.1" (+3.1") 2020-21: 44.9" (+0.9") 2019-20: 43.7" (-0.3") FNT snow the last 4 seasons 2022-23: 46.5" (-1.8") 2021-22: 60.5" (+12.2") 2020-21: 48.6" (+0.3") 2019-20: 53.7" (+5.4")

We have very similar avg snowfall, even though our climate is a bit different in the southern Great Lakes vs southern New England. I'm 40 and the lowest season snowfall I've seen is 25.5" (2011-12). You 100% will exceed last year. Some people get way too hung up on models, enso, etc. Then of course, you often have the battle of the cold vs warm trolls who always forecast the same thing regardless. But sometimes you just have to step back and look at the big picture. A huge area of the east saw record low snow last year, and many other areas stretching into the midwest saw below to well below average snowfall. Its the "law of averages". Look back at history at some of the really low snow years and notice how the next year almost always did better. On the flip side, during some banner snow years the next year is not as good.

Measurable snowfall (0.1"+). In a Great Lakes climate where the snow season often spans 6 months of the year, it's pretty much impossible to not see multiple days of snow, even in the absolute worst winters (1889-90 was a historically bad winter until Feb). The winter with the least amount of days with 1"+ snowcover was 1936-37 with just 10 days. This is also the least snowy winter on record (12.9"). Its harder for you having lived in several places, but pick your least favorite winter (for me it's either 1997-98 or 2011-12) and look at the actual stats and see how even in the worst of times the days with snow do add up somewhat in the end.

It was the coolest August since 2004.

Idk how much of a heat island MKE is compared to its suburbs. At Detroit, June usually sees 40s but July and August rarely do. However some of the "cold spots" in outlying areas often do. This year however, with a low of 50 officially on Aug 31, most of the area was in the 40s that morning. So realistically, July was the only month that most of the area didn't see 40s, though some got very close (White lake & Ann Arbor were 50).

Letting some fresh air in the house today before shutting the windows tonight. Looks like the first 30's tomorrow night, fall definitely in the air!

40s are kind of an odd metric because technically they are possible at any time of the year. While unlikely in the summer at the heat island stations, they are fairly expected in rural areas. At Detroit the last 40s were June 13th & the first 40s September 14th this year, although when DTW hit 50 in August, most of the area was in the 40s. The current average first Fall freeze at Detroit, October 23rd, is 1 day later than the long-term average of October 22nd.

Last winter locally was the classic winter for the "I don't like cold and snowcover I just like a good storm" crowd. Multiple good storms/events with blinding snow and gorgeous scenery, plus the ice storm, but just not the year for the deep Winter cold/snowcover enthusiast. Outside of arctic Christmas week.

Because you painted it as I recall lol. We had several good Winter storms here. But definitely not my favorite winter.

There were some warm days the first 10 days of the month followed by a blast of Winter. The fun contrasts of November.

As was the case all year, only scraps of the heat made it to SE MI. DTW's warmest temp for this "summers last gasp" was 83F on Oct 3rd. To put that into perspective, while some places west/north set all-time October warm temps or close to it, Detroit has seen a warmer October temp (84F+) a total of 61 times, and then another 26 times matched this 83F. Time to take the heat repellant off the magnet and reattach the snow magnet

We all know his troll bit, I just love throwing out stats when applicable

Too bad this October and its 4 days of 80+ at MKE (looks unlikely to see anymore) take a back seat to outbreaks 2-3 weeks later in the season from mid-century. 1947 Oct 5- 80 Oct 6- 84 Oct 7- 82 Oct 12- 80 Oct 14- 82 Oct 15- 86 Oct 21- 84 Oct 22- 81 1953 Oct 3- 84 Oct 17- 80 Oct 18- 83 Oct 19- 81 Oct 20- 85 Oct 21- 80 Oct 22- 83 1963 Oct 6- 89 Oct 22- 82 Oct 23- 84 Oct 24- 80 Oct 26- 81 1997 Oct 3- 84 Oct 5- 87 Oct 6- 82 Oct 7- 84 Oct 8- 81

I thought the whole area stayed in low 80s. I just couldnt figure out why they raised highs yesterday lol. They would have been dead on if they stuck with the original forecast.

That was a big fail lol.

Kind of surprised that Detroit has had 10 October days on record of 88+ (hottest 92 on Oct 7, 1963). Of course all in early October. The difference between early and late month is huge and continues into november. This is why it always seems like fall is a month or less.

Our warmest October on record, 1963, which included two days 90, was followed by a cold december. The second warmest October, 1947, was followed by a cold winter. October temps mean nothing wrt winter.

NMME Ensemble Mean of 7 longrange models. Far more worried about precip here than temps. This is the Sept update so it should update soon. Euro seasonal (not pictured) is pretty much normal, just slightly milder than avg northern tier. NDJ DJF JFM

+0.5-1C is hardly a torch lol.

I know Jan & Feb were huge departures, thats why I said thats why its the 11th warmest year thru Oct 1st. Last winter was a great example of how even in the mildest winters (7th mildest winter on record last year) we can get plenty of winter storms. In fact, I cant recall a more destructive winter for trees than last year. So honestly, no idea what to expect this winter. Id bet money its colder than last winter. But storm tracks/precip trends are far more important for snow-lovers than temps are in this region. (Of course, for us "deep winter" fans of snowcover and cold in addition to snowfall, the colder the better). Waiting for the NMME model consensus update for Oct, but the last run was surprisingly tame for a stronger el nino winter (DJF departure approx +0.5C).

I think that's a pretty safe bet lol. For Detroit, the least amount of days with measurable snow in a season is 15 days in 1889-90.

Jan and Feb were the mildest in years Jan: +7.7 Feb: +6.0 Mar: +0.6 Apr: +1.3 May: -0.6 Jun: -1.3 Jul: -0.4 Aug: -2.0 Sep: +1.3