michsnowfreak

We are now down to just piles.

Cleveland is part of the Lake Erie snowbelt & average 18.8" more than Detroit, so really not a good comparison. Although the last several years I don't know what's going on in Cleveland, they've been in the snow hole it seems.

Detroit can do good in weak el ninos. Strong are the worst. Do you have Torontos top 20 least snowy?

My expectations are not centered around big dogs. I am closer to a beavis, but not as extreme. In a strong nino I'd never expect sustained winter, but hope for periods of it. Just because you enjoy the fun times (ie the last 2 weeks) doesn't mean you're satisfied or expectations met. Which is where I don't understand where beavis is going. Who of the winter lovers is saying their satisfied? It's a subpar winter all around, especially in most or the Northwoods, but doesn't mean you can't enjoy the fun when it's here.

You're kind of taking this OT. All that was said is that it was a significant cold snap. The week averaged 15 degrees colder than average. Good catch on Jan 1966. It was more severe in terms of longevity for sure. 1973 & 1992 were shorter and not as extreme as 2023 here. I did not realize 1988 was a strong nino.

It was a very cold week here. But with the mild weather to close January, yes, DTW will finish slightly on the + side. The blast was impressive but on the short side. It was a parade of snowfalls and temps well below avg for about 10 days. The 3rd week of January was 7th coldest on record for Detroit. Nowhere near the blasts of 2019, 2014, 2015, etc...but i cant find a similar one during a strong Nino here.

Over an inch of rain last night brought DTW to over 4.5" of precip in January, the 3rd wettest January on record. That, plus the unusually severe (albeit too brief for my liking) stretch of deep winter are both things I did not see coming in a strong Nino.

Grass looks gross after staring at white for a few weeks . Just piles and a few rogue patches left.

The pattern absolutely verified. It was deep winter for a few weeks, with record breaking cold in the middle of the country. After a parade of snow systems and bitter cold here, London weather has commenced for the thaw. Can kicking has become an overused term.

Honestly anything thru approx Feb 10th would be thread the needle luck. I'm not holding my breath, but definitely liking mid Feb and beyond.

I'm not familiar with how a strong nina would affect the East. But I know here in the lakes there's actually a decent chance of having a very stormy winter. Big on roller coaster patterns.

snowman has officially resigned from the Eric Webb fan club.

No arguments here. Depending what happens the rest of the way, this could be a real wacky winter, especially if the torch followed by cold comes to fruition. So far- -Snowiest Halloween on record -Near zero visibility in snow squalls Nov 27, made for 3 days of white to end November. -Disaster December. Warmth is one thing, but only a trace of snow imby. No days with snow on the ground -Mild first third of January gives way to a 10-12 day siege of deep winter w/ thundersnow, a parade of snowfalls, bitter cold, drifting snow, -30F wind chills, etc -London weather hits during the dead of winter -Rest of the way???

Any posters from southern Wisconsin, I'm curious. Does the MKE temperature sensor seem to be running warm? I notice that MKE is always warmer than everywhere to the north or south, often even warmer than chicago.

TCC went off a cliff when the significance of the cold snap was discussed. The third week of january was top 3 coldest in almost the entire middle third of the country, something he called run of the mill. At Detroit, it was the 7th coldest. We have talked to death about how shitty the first half of this winter has been, especially December. There is not one single person in here who is remotely acting like this is a good winter for cold and snow lovers. But for the cromartie-lites, the mere discussion of ongoing cold or snow is a trigger. Hey look I can play with xmacis too! Detroit coldest Jan 14-20

I think you mean 1877-78.

There's still snowcover but it's been melting. The water content of the pack has helped the melt be slow. There will still be piles but today and tonight should do it for a snowpack. A 2 week stretch of pretty deep winter is definitely not bad for a strong Nino, just hoping we do it again the 2nd half of Feb.

Now to add some actual piss and moan banter. No matter the pattern or expectation, I HATE watching snow melt. Far more irritating to me than any model failure.

Dont jinx either of us lol. We still need almost 9" more to avoid #20 lol. I have extensively researched both our snowiest and least snowy winters, using local newspapers as well. The "open" winters, as they called the low snow years, were just sh*t winters. Some were unreal with warmth and just terrible patterns for snow/cold (1881-82, 1889-90, 1918-19, 1948-49, 1952-53), but others had plenty of opportunities where we sat cold and dry (1936-37, 1957-58, 1960-61, 1965-66). When I say cold and dry, none of them were particularly cold winters in mean temp, but they all had plenty of times where it was cold enough and we just wouldnt snow. Detroit has not been in a snow-hole winter since 1995-96. However, this happened several times in the days of yore (see 57-58, 60-61, 65-66). In a demented way, Id even argue we were in a snow-hole-lite in 1977-78. Hard to say that in a 61.7" winter, but snowfall was greater all around us. I wish records existed from the little ice age. There are books written which have pieced together local weather from the 1780s-1860s (records began 1870s) and just like now, winters varied a great deal. But one startling thing is that there were some very cold and very dry, open winters with very little snow. (this is also documented in Minnesota, as there are journals of weather from this time). The slight warming of winters is a help, not a hindrance, to snow chances in a cold climate surrounded by lakes. (while not in a snowbelt, the amount of lake effect and lake enhanced snow has absolutely increased here the last 20 years or so).

We can thank a slightly warmer climate for the absence of those "cold, dry" winters that happened, although infrequently, in the old days. A majority of the least snowy winters were warm, but there were several that were closer to avg or even though mild overall, had a long stretch of cold weather that didnt produce a lot of snow (1957-58, 1960-61, 1965-66 just to name a few....57-58 and 65-66 had warm decembers but cold thereafter).

I have to check with DTX why some of those years are off pre-1900. I used the #s based on the official data (I have had it all long before xmacis existed).

When did I ever say Toledo gets different weather patterns? I said in recent years theres been a big cutoff, larger than usual, which is 100% true. Last winter alone, Detroit had SEVERAL snowstorms that Toledo didnt get anything (or rain) from, and the same was seen in 2021-22 (to a lesser extent). Meanwhile, in 2021, Toledo area had near 20" on the ground in Feb. I never said Toledo cant score, or that Detroit cant get bad winters. But Toledo has been in a snow hole far more often than Detroit. Average snowfall is 7" or 8" less in Toledo than Detroit. Oh, and btw...if youre going to compare Detroit to Toledo, you have to start in the same year. Toledos records didnt start til 1891. So get rid of Detroits #2 and #6 least snowy winter (actually, Toledo DID have records in 1889-90, they reported just 6.0" for by far their least snowy winter, but for some reason, NWS starts records in 1891). So since 1891, Detroits #10 least snowy is 22.0", more than Toledo. Also, lets compare Detroits top 10 to Toledo's top 10: 01.) 94.9" - 2013-14 ---- 01.) 86.3" - 2013-14 02.) 93.6" - 1880-81 ---- 02.) 73.1" - 1977-78 03.) 78.0" - 1925-26 ---- 03.) 68.2" - 1981-82 04.) 74.0" - 1981-82 ---- 04.) 63.7" - 1895-96 05.) 71.7" - 2007-08 ---- 05.) 60.6" - 1966-67 06.) 69.1" - 1899-00 ---- 06.) 59.4" - 1969-70 06.) 69.1" - 2010-11 ---- 07.) 58.1" - 2007-08 08.) 67.2" - 1907-08 ---- 08.) 56.8" - 1993-94 09.) 66.5" - 1929-30 ---- 09.) 56.0" - 2004-05 10.) 65.7" - 2004-05 ---- 10.) 53.9" - 1952-53 Since 1891, # of winters in each category: Toledo ---------Detroit 80”+ - 1 -------- 1 70”-80”- 1 ----- 3 60-70” – 3 ----- 11 50-60” – 7 ----- 14 40-50” – 20 ---- 39 30-40” – 43 ---- 34 20-30” – 33 ---- 23 10-20” – 20 ---- 8 M data – 5

Here's the top 20 01) 12.9" - 1936-37 02) 13.2" - 1881-82 03) 13.7" - 1948-49 04) 15.2" - 1918-19 05) 15.4" - 1965-66 06) 15.8" - 1889-90 07) 16.6" - 1952-53 08) 17.1" - 1968-69 09) 18.0" - 1957-58 09) 18.0" - 1960-61 11) 20.0" - 1982-83 12) 22.0" - 1945-46 13) 22.6" - 1937-38 14) 22.8" - 1943-44 15) 23.2" - 1888-89 16) 23.4" - 1941-42 16) 23.4" - 1997-98 18) 23.7" - 1999-00 19) 24.1" - 2003-04 20) 25.1" - 1988-89

Judging by those pictures, I'm sure they're not strangers to meth either.

It's soupy for sure