michsnowfreak

I'm sure they don't mind as popping in lol, I always check here for the 1st discussions about Winter in late summer lol. It's refreshing to have these conversations again. Michigan is full of microclimates, and not just talking about the well known Lake belts. From a simple snowcover perspective it's very latitude based, so someone who does not pay attention to the weather or the depth of snow and simply goes by if the ground is white, they would probably assume snowfall is very south to north gridded. But that's oh so wrong. In terms of actual snowfall over the course of a season it's crazy how variable it is. Detroit's northern most suburbs, which sit at a higher elevation, average more snow fall than anywhere to the N,S,E,W. They actually average more snow than a portion of north central & northeast lower Michigan, as well as the banana belt of the upper peninsula ( such as Escanaba or Menominee). Detroit average 43" and Flint 48", Detroits northernmost suburbs which sit smack between those 2 sites average near 60". Parts of the thumb near the shoreline average significant snowfall but on the West side of the thumb, you will again see less snowfall than actually Detroit sees. The Marquette official observations come from Negaunee, it is literally the next town over but at a much higher elevation, averaging almost double the snowfall that downtown valleyed Marquette city averages. There are off the grid locations in the middle of nowhere on the Lake superior shoreline that can easily see 300+ inches of snow per season, but these are places where literally no one lives and only the most daring snowmobile or will venture to. If you were to travel West to East across northern lower Michigan, talk about variable snow fall. Traverse City is a pretty good area for heavy snow, but then you get into Gaylord and you're talking the heaviest snow in the lower peninsula, continue on East to the South of Alpena and you're into another banana belt of sorts. I've never seen a detailed enough map of Michigan average snow fall that is to my liking lol, but what else can you expect in the Great Lakes.

I agree 100%. Me personally? I would take a cold Winter with average snow fall and nonstop snow cover in a heartbeat over I miles Winter with above average snow cover and frequent thaws ( Of course I would certainly take the latter In many other situations lol). Obviously my preference is for every Winter to be like 2013-14, but I know that is completely unrealistic. It's one thing for wx weenies to want snow all the time, I get that, but it really does seem that many weenies have very unrealistic expectations of what Winter should be. I could probably go to each subforum on and review an average Winter and the posts would be 90% negative. As for the non wx public? Of course everyone recognizes a historic severe winter like 2013-14 or ratter like 2011-12 for what they are, but outside the extremes, my observation of the general public here in SE Michigan is that they rate harshness of the Winter based on how often snow was on the ground and how cold it was more so than how much snow actually fell. After a mild winter that's dominated by freeze/thaw, snow/bare cycles, we could easily tally above average snowfall but the public would say "we had an easy Winter" or "we did not have a lot of snow this year". Likewise, after a cold winter with average or below average snowfall they would say "it's been a long Winter" or "we had a lot of snow this year".

I'm just surprised to see below average snow fall under the assumption of a la nina Winter. In much of the midwest, Great Lakes, & New England, temps are just a small piece of the puzzle of how much snow the season will bring. Last Winter was such a mild Winter yet we finished with average snowfall because it started early with a record November snowstorm and ended late with snow through Mother's Day. Just because you see stretches of midwinter bare ground does not mean the snow that has fallen doesn't count lol. Likewise some of our coldest winters saw average or below average snow fall.

I saw JB's temp map (he must be going for reverse psychology)...anyone have weatherbells precip map for the winter? And I notice cosgrove is obsessed with pointing out its NOT a La Nina....i assumed the expectation was Nina was to develop in Fall?

I'm ready for fall that's for sure. By Halloween time is when I get ready for snow. I'm in Southern Michigan, however when looking at the weak La Ninas, it's uncanny how strong the signal is for a snowy December.

Yes it was. Most would work for me.

are you seeing a snowy start to winter in the Great Lakes? ala weak nina

I would love to have an average fall. I am so so so over summer. Detroit had 14 days of 90+, which is not far from the average of 12, but the persistence of heat from mid June to July was impressive. Adding to stebos earlier comment, weak la ninas often have mild autumns followed by Winter hitting early and hard (with the 2nd half of Winter more up in the air).

Who used that unusual line? I'd be safe, but again, some bold predictions for so far out.

kinda ridiculous for any met to exhibit confidence in any scenario one way or the other.

That makes sense. Any idea what the h5 looks like on the euro? just my usual August curiosity lol. I put little faith in models either way.

what are the euro monthlies like accuracy wise? low accuracy like the rest? larry cosgrove was unhappy at how warm they looked for winter. it was an odd look because the map was full of warm anomaloes yet they weren't extreme anywhere when you realized the legend was in increments of 0.2°. Even converting to F it was a few degrees or less warm departure for most everyone.

I've noticed over the years there are always some notable similarities yet at the same time notable differences between winters in the Southern Great Lakes and Southern New England. Not sure where sne falls with this, but I was looking at weak la ninas and it's startling how strong the trend is for snowy December's here during a weak Nina. Especially since the 1970s. 7 of the past 8 have had well above average December snowfall. The lone holdout was average. Could be completely random, as those 8 winters were quite different from one another (some severe, some very frontloaded). But regardless the trend is about as strong as you can get with an analog set.

I had 5.72" in July and already 2.00" in August

Thanks for the info on CT. they'll be working at uconn. Its more for my own curiosity than theirs . Not sure about the girlfriend but I know my brother well. He likes snow at first but then gets tired of it. Not sure if they'll be there more than 1 winter, so hopefully a noreaster happens this coming winter. Actually, assuming the Winter will probably have less gray days, less snowy days, less days with snowcover, but a bigger shut-everything-down storm, that my be a type of winter my brother likes lol. if a 2+ foot storm happens I may have to come for a visit.

Oh wow, then that is definitely less than here. Im assuming snowcover isn't great either then? They dont have strong opinions one way or the other regarding winter (don't love it, don't hate it), plus its a temporary move, so I don't think they would care. But interesting nonetheless.

Thanks. 40-45 would be similar to here, probably the usual caveat of bigger storms but less snowfalls/snowcover overall.

Question for Connecticut folks. How much snow does Willimantic average? My brother and his girlfriend are relocating there until she can get transferred back to Michigan. Its a small town and I couldn't figure out with the variable snowfall averages in New England what side Willimantic lies lol.

It's always funny every year how when the very first discussions of the coming Winter begin, even those of us at northern latitudes look at temperature departure maps first. In reality mild winters can be snowy and cold winters can be dry. Obviously you still want to see a map covered in blue over covered in red, but I can't say I dislike the look of a weak La Nina, at least here in the southern great lakes.

+1°C is a blowtorch, got it

You are being generous. They pretty much shut down for a snowflake. If they get a half inch of snow they are stranded on the road for 8 hours with nothing to do but lament a war they lost 160 years ago.

I did not realize you move back to Massachusetts. When did you do so?

Got a sign to support those essential workers! Really do appreciate all they do during these crazy times

I'm very curious to see what Whitmers next update for Michigan will be. With April 30 just 9 days away, usually she will announce the next step several days in advance, or at least hint at it.

I love Michigan but this minority that protested at the Capitol were pure idiots