michsnowfreak

I'm at 6.2" so far, but after a white start to December the ground is mostly bare today. The Nov 30-Dec 1 snowfall was beautiful. We now enter a quiet period in the Great Lakes but I can't imagine it stays that way for long in a la nina

I'm at 6.2" with 4 days of 1"+ snowcover. It has now all melted except for a few patches & piles, but one interesting thing to note is before the mild night last night, brilliant sun the previous 2 days did not melt the snowpack very fast. Yes it slowly melted, but it really was a Testament to the low Sun angle. One thing I always find interesting is that if it's a front or back loaded Winter, the public tends to always remember the end of it. If we went snowless through New Year's then got dumped on from mid January to mid March, people would remember it is a harsh Winter. If we were getting dumped on from Thanksgiving through New Year's and then the rest of the Winter was mild, they would remember it is a mild Winter. The upcoming quiet stretch is quite perplexing however with the overwhelming signs of a wet winter in the southern Lakes, I can tell you I will be SHOCKED if this zzzz is a winter long theme.

something tells me in the 4 months until that time it will not be all zzzz

just patches and piles of snow left as temps hung in the upper 30s all night. now onto a boring stretch that hopefully is one of few in what should be a stormy winter.

...and the days will be getting colder

I was browsing various Dec discussion threads looking for possible forecast maps for later in Dec lol, and came across this. its a great point. NYC climate always seems like a feast or famine place when it comes to snow. and lean times suck, but when you look at it, there was a lot of snow in recent years not long ago. The 2010s were actually the warmest (just barely), wettest, and snowiest decade on record for Detroit. Snowfall has increased across much of the Midwest and Northeast this century, so I just don't get the fear that snow is going away that some people have. Its not lol. The northeast will always be prone to noreasters.

Snow still trying to hang tough, full cover in any shaded areas. I am tired of seeing the sun. We've certainly had a handful of cloudy days but this is the time of year I look I look forward to that constant gray overcast. Yes, I mean that and yes I know I'm in the minority.

Surprisingly no. some bare spots but for the most part a solid snowcover. id call it 2" on avg.

Pretty scene after the sun rose with the moon still out this morning. With abundant sunshine expected so is melting.

much of the UP has bare ground, so that's actually ok lol. Winter wonderland in Detroit yesterday but green in Sault Ste Marie.

Decembers in the 2010s were feast or famine at Detroit 2010- 9.3" 2011- 5.7" 2012- 10.6" 2013- 15.5" 2014- 0.1" 2015- 1.3" 2016- 16.8" 2017- 22.5" 2018- 0.5" 2019- 2.7"

Decembers have been streaky. some very good and very bad ones the last few decades. All balances out. The OV has had some crappy Decembers since the beginning of climate records, although the feast or famine of recent years is something.

You can't call 11-12 in November lol. And the only time you will see Noaa's maps in blue is when an absolutely imminent cold snap is coming. This time in 2005 or 2016 it was a nice snowy outlook headed into the holidays. Meanwhile after new years...

Once we get the first post extrapolating past 84 hrs on the NAM, then you KNOW winter is here!

November 1950 started with record warmth. Temps on the 1st exceeded 80F in most areas...then BAM.

lol. still way too early to have confidence in any solution.

Same with DTX; they mention a possible winter storm, very unusual for them this far out as they are conservative

DTX just issued their winter forecast. Slightly above avg temps, above avg precip, near avg snowfall for December. Then average temps, above avg precip, and near to above avg snowfall

consistency of a storm is very good for so far out, of course where it goes no one knows. Unlike the rather last minute Detroit snowfall Sunday and Chicagos snow today, this one will be dissected all week. Let the model mayhem of the 2020-21 season commence!

my thoughts exactly

After the first 2/3 of November featured unusually sunny, quiet weather, the stormy pattern starting to show up in late November is right on cue. Here's to a stormy Winter ahead! I am sure there will be plenty of annoyances along the way (rain, model failures, torches etc.) but overall I feel Nina is going to help us have some fun times ahead.

Just a heads up, with a moderate la nina in place id bet the house on a Rollercoaster. There will be nice wintry bouts and annoying thaws.

tomorrow looking interesting in southeast Michigan for some wet accumulating snow.

Sustained has always seemed uncommon. I mean most winters either see the cold or mild dominate, but its rare for anything to truly be sustained. I definitely agree that snow is not a way to determine if a winter is cold or mild...and thats why I brought up the rarity of a winter that is both simultaneously abnormally cold AND snowy. For instance, the winter of 1977-78 from a snowfall standpoint essentially died after the Jan 26 blizzard, which is only mid winter...but I don't think anyone would not call that a "cold, snowy winter". That does give me an idea though...I do want to look up later how many winters saw all 3 months finish warmer or colder than avg. btw if anyone is interested, here is a list of nina winters since 1950

Definitely not throwing in the towel on winter, just noting that December is looking mild. Its actually ridiculous to throw in the towel when there are 5 months of snow to come.