michsnowfreak

Actually the 12Z GFS ensembles are the coldest theyve been in days. The model circus will just continue to go up-and-down all through the Winter and beyond.

November 11th was a widespread synoptic snowstorm.

The long range GFS was always good for laughs and nothing more, but even the ensembles in the long range of been absolutely terrible this season so far. Wild changes run to run. Really seems like we are going backwards instead of forwards in model land when it comes to accuracy.

I am with beavis. At least it's been chilly outside. We had off and on flakes throughout the week. It's annoying that we were buried in beautiful deep snow in mid November and have nothing on the ground in early December, but but give me cold and gray any day over torch.

Lol i know right. But i will say ive seen many forecasts with a sweet spot storm track over us. Obviously its been a dull couple weeks, but season snowfall to date is well above normal and weve only just begun.

I'm always a bit on the fence this time of year, but i think in the end it will be an above average snow season, just seems like too much stuff pointing to that. Obviously we are off to a banner start, with several snowfalls in late October and early November in the Western part of the sub, then the historic (for November) Veterans Day snowstorm in Detroit. However now that we are in a lull, and the next few weeks looks a bit boring outside of the far North, the usual doubts and worries creep in. But bottom line, theres still 5 more months of snow to come so I'm sure a lot of fun and probably some frustration lies ahead. Let it snow!

Me Too! Lol. I was just curious if you took the heavy early season snow into account with those estimates.

Dons forecast isnt that bad, its just not super snowy.

I mean that is just their forecast lol (and to be honest they dont have the best track record at seasonal forecasting lol). But I will tell you one thing. If in the end December does end up mild with subpar snowfall, we will probably never shake the superstition that cold snowy November lead to mild lower snow december's.

Dons Winter outlook Is not terrible, it basically calls for somewhat below normal snowfall but also below normal temperatures in the Great Lakes. Despite the bare ground now, it goes without saying that the region has certainly got a head start in snow anomalies on the positive side, so there is definitely contradiction with a cold and drier Winter that don is predicting vs the above normal precipitation anomalies that many of the other forecasts show. DTX NWS issued their Winter outlook, noting that the 1st 20 days of November were the coldest on record, and stating that December should be milder than normal with less snow than normal, January should be colder than normal with normal snow, and February should have normal temps and normal snow.

Thanks as always for the write-up Don, although I will say hopefully your snowfall estimates are a bit low in the Great Lakes. Chicago is already in 8.3" on the season and you only have them in the 25-35" forecast range (they average approximately 37"), Detroit is already at 9.5" on the season and you have them in the 30-40" range, average approximately 43".

The result still seemed mix, but since 2014 snowy November's have overwhelmingly meant less no in December lol. Even if it happens again this year, I refuse to believe it's anything more than coincidence considering the longer term trends, or should I say lack thereof. Regardless, as we all know December is only the beginning of Winter, but it's always nice to have snowy scenes around the holidays

Isnt this a neutral enso?

What time frame? Hopefully past mid month towards christmas turns wintry again.

Seems like a confusing long range. Op gfs looks kind of mild, its ensembles decidedly colder but cfs way colder. Yet i thought the bias were gfs to run cold and cfs warm. Hmmm

Speaking of going poof, so did the cfs's mild December.

I don't either, but last Winter was a very sucky Winter for the East Coast while the Western Midwest scored time and time again. We are in a good spot because if we arent in the jackpot zone, we can usually get fringed by scraps of the best stuff whether the goods are setting up to the West or the East, but of course ideally we want some of those Winter forecast to Pan out that had the storm track as the Southeast Michigan special

I'm not seeing any signs of a strong El nino? I do know the Winter forecasts are very good this year, I remember they were pretty good last year but I don't remember the details. I usually forget what the Winter forecasts were once the Winter actually happens, that's usually just an appetizer to tide me over lol. All I know is the November 11th snowstorm here far exceeded all expectations and any model runs, so that's an excellent sign to me. Once a storm has happened, we kind of forget the QPF forecasts that we were dissecting before the storm happened. Plus ratios are never set in stone. The November 11th snowstorm dropped 8.8" of snow in my backyard, even more in other areas, but the important thing is the liquid equivalent was 0.90" in my rain gauge. The forecast was 3-5" (which I thought was low, but I was expecting 4-6") and the HIGHEST model run was 0.75" of QPF.

Retire DTX met Bill Deedlers Winter outlook for the Great Lakes https://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2019/11/neutral-enso-takes-back-seat-to-other.html?m=1

So true, we have already broken so many November snow records this year. Lets go for monthly record too. If no more snow falls, we have already locked in 4th snowiest November (which was locked in by November 12th).

Early and late snows may often be the "stat padding" type, but this past week I would hardly consider stat padding. It was an absolute deep Winter week, with a historic November snowstorm at Detroit, and likely Windsor (if they would actually measure).

Hey now, dont sell your winter short long before it starts lol. You may see more severe winter weather than that. However that said, whats going on in the Rockies is VERY impressive. They are used to October and May snows, as well as January days of 70F, but this is something else. With all the subpar winters Denver has had lately, this might be one of the severest stretches of winter weather theyve had in some time.

Definitely looks like an early dose of Winter. But we had quite bc a few snowfalls last November before December turned very mild and then Winter roared back in January. Hopefully this Christmas season has lots of snow to go with it!

True. I had 96.2" and Detroit 94.9" in 13-14. But it wasnt JUST the snow, it was the severity of the winter. The brutal cold, winds, and nonstop blowing snow which is why i have a hard time seeing that winter matched for overall severity. In shear terms of snowfall, especially with it seemingly increasing in the lakes, id say its definitely possible.

Impossible lol. But i can dream.