michsnowfreak

I welcome a cold clippery pattern. Bring it. Thanks for the analysis, we have very few mets in this subforum. Please keep us updated in the coming days and weeks as well!

Obviously all the attention is on this weekends storm, but I must say, the long range is starting to look better and better per ensembles (& CFS, tho CFS has been hinting at this for a while). Bring on some more sustained winter, something we have not seen since November. Since then its been brief bouts, ie, yesterday at this time it was in the low 40s, now there is an inch of snow on the ground with temps in the low 20s and wind chills in the single digits, but tomorrow temps will rise to 40 again. Ensembles also look quite active. Hopefully fun times ahead for us all, so sticking with my call of more sustained winter late Jan into Feb.

One thing I've learned is that Winter's come a while they may have things in common with other winters, are like snowflakes. No 2 are the same. There were certainly a trio of harsh winters in the late 1970s, but as the whole, we've seen everything. I noticed that 1950s winters in the Great Lakes tended to have November and March snowstorms and often lots of mild spells during the heart of actual Winter.

Lol nah, it really has not rained much is just been boring.

This has already felt like an East Coast Winter of sorts. We had a big snowstorm in November when 8 to 12" fell in metro Detroit, and since then very little. Obviously on paper we still had far more flakes and dustings than a typical East Coast Winter, but the overall feel is the same. Id prefer my more steady dose of 1-3/2-4/3-6 snows anytime over a big storm followed by zzzz. I agree that 1 massive storm does not make a great Winter, however the irony is there used to be quite a contingent of people in this region on this forum who disliked our gray winters full of nuisance snow after nuisance snow, and instead preferred one huge storm then nothing (or so they said). You would think that moving forward if any pattern was conducive of a big dog, it's this one, with se ridge pumping warm air to our south and east and the cold building to the north and west. Certainly not saying its happening, just saying the chances are probably better than usual. I do feel it turns much colder later in January into February, hopefully we get into one of our good old cold clipper regimes. It will be very refreshing to see the complaints change to those of suppression

No doubt there will probably be fluke events, but as you said, pointless than expecting anything until it's 2 days or less out. The models seem extra up-and-down this year. Once the ridge starts moving further East, it seems as if the Great Lakes are in a bit of a battle zone, do you think that bodes well for a possible big winter storm?

Thanks for the update. For a bit now I've been kind of feeling that it was going to be a repeat of last year with the mild holding until late January when it turns much colder, and then last in to February. No doubt some will luck into some snow during the mild period, but it will not be fun times and the weather boards until the last third of the month lol

There's so much left of this Winter though, very hard to dictate if it's going to end up being a big stinker or not. We have luckily been able to avoid the huge sucky years, outside of 2011-12, so hopefully we keep on keeping on. The stat guy I am I has a new idea now lol, I'm going to try and look up what were the suckiest back-to-back winters.

Considering up to yesterday all that was showing for the weekend was rain and no snow, I will consider any snow a plus.. I feel that this entire month is going to be full of weather surprises and disappointments.

Saturday may still produce some snow, which actually kind of snuck up just the other day lol.

That's how it almost always is & not just with big dogs. The stuff that is tracked for a long time usually underwhelmed, and the good stuff often sneaks up..

Just so I'm not confused, which storms are you referring to? There's a lot of activity on the models for different days.

Jokes aside of the model changes every 6 hours, you have to like where we sit going forward in January rather than being South, and those north/northwest of us like where they ait more than us. Gut says February will be more of a suppression/clipper month.

This is an excellent post. I am one of those who does not mind cold and dry at all IF, and IF being the key word, there's a nice snowpack in place. I was one of those crazies taking a Winter walk last year in 40 below Windchills. That said, obviously a stormy scenario is the preference. And what everyone has to remember as we get deeper into Winter, January and February being our harshest Winter months, is that when we look at the long range maps we don't necessarily want to see a sea of dark blues over us. That may be something the mid Atlantic wants, but not the Great Lakes. Ready to roll the dice and see how January plays out, but after a very boring stretch of December I'm sure most are happy to hear that active looks to be on the table.

January seems to potentially be more active than December was. I think those of us far enough North still see plenty of snow chances however it does appear to be a milder than average month. Really starting to think that those calling for a back loaded Winter are correct, where February is the harshest Winter month for the Eastern half of the country and it's another late Spring.

Battle zones work out, but only for whos on the good side lol

A La Nina like pattern, should that actually be what develops (everyone has to remember, the models and mets have been over the place), can actually produce heavier than average snowfall in total but less in the way of sustained Winter for the southern Great Lakes.

Once we get this weekend out of the way, I'd sure there will be plenty more chances. Near to slightly above average temperatures in January and February are more than enough for lots of snow. The issue, of course will be timing storms and storminess. Then again, the weeklies have performed bad, so everyone will probably be best to take everything one week at a time.

Larry Cosgrove seems to like January in the Midwest. I like the European model weeklies with its "washed out cold" look between January 1 and 23 covering much of the nation. In terms of snowfall potential (again keeping in mind the active storm track....), this looks like a superb set-up for the Great Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes to see important snow (and some ice as well). The Rocky Mountain ski resorts should also do well as disturbances move into teh trough and set up cases of upslope flow or moisture advection from the western Gulf of Mexico. Winter will get here, folks, just give it time. But the Interstate 95 cities will probably have to wait a little longer.

The Midwest got such a head start on the snow season that it will be virtually impossible to set futility records the season.

November was almost 6° colder than avg and December to date is running less than 1° above avg. You are talking as if it's been a nonstop torch with no end in sight. To answer your question, Feb 1st if there's been no more cold and nothing in sight, then its time to give up on that. Snow wise, we literally have 4 more months of measurable snow potential and as we head towards the dead of winter even mild temps can yield good snow. Bottom line, barring torching, as we head into winter storminess is more of a concern than it being cold enough to snow

No thanks. Plenty of winter fun ahead. I am wondering if its a repeat of last winter in terms of false cold on the models to open January and the cold held off til mid January then winter was here (for the most part) from mid Jan to mid Mar.

Even if you take away that huge storm the 2015 Winter was full of clippers and snow cover, which I would take in a heartbeat.

I would say it's equal chances. The long range is nothing more than laughs, at least from an operational standpoint. Ensembles can be good for changes in patterns, but actual op runs are worthless. Speaking of ensembles, it does appear that much colder weather is on tap as we start the New Year. I've heard a couple people cite 2014-15, and I could certainly take a Winter like that.

2010s winters were leaps, bounds, and miles better than 1990s winters in Southeast Michigan.