michsnowfreak

31 at DTW this morning. 20s in outlying areas. First official freeze of the season

This is an interesting take. Because I always get the impression that the 90s were beloved on the east coast. The decade of the 1990s as a whole was very meh snow wise here in southeast MI. Of course there were moments, but every decade has them. The 2000s and 2010s were FAR superior to the 1990s, and even the maligned 2020s has averaged around the same (halfway thru) as the 1990s (full decade) did.

It wasnt just great, 2013-14 was the most severe winter on record in southeast MI. It followed multiple harsh winters beginning in 2002-03. The mild regime since has been concentrated on a handful of very warm winters and some average ones. Snowfall hasn't suffered greatly compared to longterm average, but took a steep decline from the record 2005-2015 stretch.

Sugar maples are my favorite!

Absolutely love my autumn blaze maple! Its a fast grower and each year the color is more impressive. Primary red but orange and yellow at bottom. Leaves dropping now, but took these pics Oct 28.

For those worried about what they perceive as not enough cold/snow in Canada in late October...and of course the now favorite starting phrase on amwx "since 2016..." I thought this was very interesting. The chart below shows snow at Detroit the past 10 years and then the previous 10 years. The bottom line is the period of record average. The past 10 years have shown a very unusual trend of snowier than average Novembers and below average snowfall in Decembers. Even more interesting is the lower November snow the previous 10 years in what were fantastic winters.

It's an old saying. But it's just that. Like looking at squirrels tails or the acorn crop. As a weather observer for now 30 years, there's absolutely no correlation. November is certainly the descent into winter, offering the largest avg temp difference from 1st to last day of any month of the year. But if im going to play with patterns I'd rather hold a favorable look for December. It's so tempting to want to see that first snow, but I've almost become superstitious in recent years with early cold and snow shots leading to mild murky Decembers.

A warm or cold November has nothing to do with the winter or the start of winter. We've seen multiple examples in recent years of cold, snowy Novembers followed by mild Decembers.

I forecast @cyclone77 and MLI to get more snow than they received last winter.

I would take the entire historic season again!

A blustery, November like day today. Lake effect rain showers and wind chills around freezing. This is the first of many cold season systems that will rotating thru the Lakes. At face value its really just a blustery Fall day but its that first big step that winter is about to start. Looking like November may start with some widespread snowflakes.

Absolutely stunning Fall day today. Colors, blue sky, crisp air. Perfect October weather.

I absolutely love Fall. Took that pic yesterday pn an impromptu walk in the park. I dont mind the leaf cleanup in the crisp chilly air at all. I'll do that 100x rather than cut grass on a humid July day.

When the autumn leaves start falling, you know shits getting real. Winter is knocking on the door.

Beautiful Fall day today.

Absolutely gorgeous autumn day here today. Blue skies, colors have exploded this past week, and a crisp chill is in the air. I dont mind in the least that Im in that bright red on the map...because I know it wont last.

After the early start to the color season in late Aug/early Sept then a complete stall, along with lots of drying leaves, I was worried the color show would suck. But as always, it has exploded this week and should have a nice few weeks ahead before the winter sticks set in.

Turned my heat on this morning. Woke up to the house at 57F. Low at DTW was 39 or 40 (need to confirm) and the cold spot Ann Arbor at 29F. Light frost over most of the area.

I am ready for snow November 1st. But I enjoy the cool crisp days with the color. Which looks like we will have this week.

haha northern MN was nearly as warm! It was just 4 days but Im glad its over!

said plenty of people. many people are ready for Fall and did not enjoy that weather.

After 4 gross days in the 80s, a gorgeous Fall week on tap

This logic makes zero sense to me, as if there is some linear correlation to "if it warms this much it will snow this much less". You harp so much on the 7 years or since 2016 or whatever, as if 2015 was generations ago. Weather goes in cycles, always have and always will, and to just assume things is really kind of wild imo. Especially since in a warmer climate there is more moisture in the air. Its not some formula of "avg temp goes from this to this so snowfall goes from this to this" and as Ive said many times. I could easily argue that for areas north of 41N or so a bit warmer temps would be a boon to heavier snowfall. If you want to be technical, the Great Lakes snow has certainly increased and even outside the belts, we see snowfall in Detroit, following the record regime of 2007-2015, just barely below the longterm avg the past decade despite several warm winters. Id argue that warmer winters are snowier than the used to be.

How did a colder climate make it possible? Remember places further north are different than NYC. For those in colder climes its more about patterns. You can easily see less snow in a colder winter or more snow in a milder winter.

LOL I was going to post the exact same thing. Must be from Arkansas. Guess we somehow dont get snow in Michigan while they're buried in Arkansas