michsnowfreak

Absolutely gorgeous autumn day here today. Blue skies, colors have exploded this past week, and a crisp chill is in the air. I dont mind in the least that Im in that bright red on the map...because I know it wont last.

After the early start to the color season in late Aug/early Sept then a complete stall, along with lots of drying leaves, I was worried the color show would suck. But as always, it has exploded this week and should have a nice few weeks ahead before the winter sticks set in.

Turned my heat on this morning. Woke up to the house at 57F. Low at DTW was 39 or 40 (need to confirm) and the cold spot Ann Arbor at 29F. Light frost over most of the area.

I am ready for snow November 1st. But I enjoy the cool crisp days with the color. Which looks like we will have this week.

haha northern MN was nearly as warm! It was just 4 days but Im glad its over!

said plenty of people. many people are ready for Fall and did not enjoy that weather.

After 4 gross days in the 80s, a gorgeous Fall week on tap

This logic makes zero sense to me, as if there is some linear correlation to "if it warms this much it will snow this much less". You harp so much on the 7 years or since 2016 or whatever, as if 2015 was generations ago. Weather goes in cycles, always have and always will, and to just assume things is really kind of wild imo. Especially since in a warmer climate there is more moisture in the air. Its not some formula of "avg temp goes from this to this so snowfall goes from this to this" and as Ive said many times. I could easily argue that for areas north of 41N or so a bit warmer temps would be a boon to heavier snowfall. If you want to be technical, the Great Lakes snow has certainly increased and even outside the belts, we see snowfall in Detroit, following the record regime of 2007-2015, just barely below the longterm avg the past decade despite several warm winters. Id argue that warmer winters are snowier than the used to be.

How did a colder climate make it possible? Remember places further north are different than NYC. For those in colder climes its more about patterns. You can easily see less snow in a colder winter or more snow in a milder winter.

LOL I was going to post the exact same thing. Must be from Arkansas. Guess we somehow dont get snow in Michigan while they're buried in Arkansas

I dont think we'll ever average a DJF temp of 35°, certainly not in the lifetime of anyone currently living. Will probably hit it at a few times, but never average it.

JB is not exactly someone id cite for reference on anything, but he IS right. In fact when an enso pattern is firmly in place, a good rule of thumb (at least in the Lakes) is nino means cold October and mild winter, while nina means warm October colder winter.

Detroit has only had 3 winters in recorded history reach 35.0°+. All long ago (1881-82, 1931-32, & 1889-90) and all well below avg snowfall. So im not surprised.

Yeah. There were upper 80s days. But no 90 since Sept 2018. Im ready for cooler weather but a milder Fall in La Nina is normal.

Despite finishing warmer than average, this was the 7th consecutive september where Detroit failed to officially hit 90, making it the longest stretch on record.

Interesting! Our lows are a bit more elevated due to lots of overcast nights, though we still drop below zero several days annually.

Yet another example how we were so spoiled back then lol. For Detroit- 2002-2015 avg- 52.4” 2016-2025 avg- 39.1” POR avg- 40.9”

Yeah that makes sense. Not terribly different from my avg temps. But yet another example of how snowfall is localized and very subject to other things than just the avg temp. I wonder what a REASONABLE line or latitude is to draw a line and assume below that line is where you really need seasonable to colder than avg temps to get snow. Based on a quick calculation, I get your DJF avg high/low as 38/20. Mine is 34/21.

This is interesting wrt snow because you are at a safe enough latitude that mild winters can easily be snowier than avg. What first order station are you closest to for temps, ORH? In terms of "being due". For here, i would roughly consider the era of above avg snow dominance to be from 2002-2015 and below avg snow dominance 2016-present, however the above was much more above than the below has been below.

You're jumping the gun though. I know you said "if". But dry mild Falls followed by wet winters is a very common theme for ninas in the midwest/Great Lakes.

Two things to comment on this. #1) This is a good example of why I always say...pattern is more concerning than temps for here in terms of snowfall. Despite the bright orange color, the snowfall in those 3 Januaries at Detroit was: 1950- 9.5", 2017- 11.8", 2023- 11.7". The longterm POR avg for Jan snow is 11". #2) it would not be a surprise to me whatsoever to see a very nice winter stretch as well as a shitty stretch....its very common in Nina winters. Always has been and to coin a favorite term on here, in "today's climate", you can even add an extra boost to that volatility. But you should know that anything from that poster is nothing but troll bait, and certainly not a legitimate thought/forecast for the coming winter.

Its not sugar. But im not sure which kind ot is.

They did. It was so small and isolated but trained. It probably affected 25% of Detroit city and nowhere else.

I imagine color is ramping up bigtime in NNE with the drought. Our average peak in SE MI is mid-late October, but color began in late August as the cool nights arrived and even with the pattern shift to warmer, color continues to expand. The air smells like fall with all the drying leaves, even in the warm sun, and I suspect the dry conditions have to be playing a part. Kind of hard to tell in this picture from earlier, but the gold of the grass is only a few shades lighter than the gold on the trees.

Dry. Warm. Dry. Sunny. Dry. Colors continue to pick up steam despite the warmer weather. Did I mention dry?