michsnowfreak

Yes. A La Nina is always more hostile in the south. Here in the north it looks fine. And even in the NE. By mid January temps are avg to below avg the rest of January as we get into the climatological coldest time of year. Again...euro has not done well....but still, im looking forward to what Jan/Feb may bring

I must point out the irony that today is the first official day of winter and the 7am snow depth has fallen to 0 at DTW for the first time since 7am November 29.

One of the rare times I agree with you. Its actually incredible how the Euro and its ensembles used to be "king" and how they have regressed so much.

Yesterday's weeklies were the warmest and they corrected cooler again today. The weeklies past 2 weeks, if they are correct, are like the old "broken clock is right twice a day" saying.

Yessir!

A canonical la nina is a VERY roller coaster ride- more roller coaster than typical climo. So expect tons of model chaos the rest of the winter. Our region is definitely a better place to be than the east or especially south. But just be warned...there's likely plenty of excitement and disappointment ahead.

Also....a canonical la nina is a VERY roller coaster ride- more roller coaster than typical climo. So expect tons of model chaos the rest of the winter.

Today is the first day with bare ground at Detroit since November 28th. It was the 5th coldest first half of December on record and still running over 8° below avg. As i recall the poster in question "predicted" a warm start to December. Unfortunately mother nature doesn't always sync herself with Bing Crosby. Remember 2022? It was a mild winter but a perfectly timed cold snap brought near record coverage of a white Christmas to the CONUS.

I agree. They change daily. When they stop flip flopping is when you can be more confident in a scenario.

First time all of December we saw bare ground today (though we got a fresh dusting), neighbors snowman appears to be on ozempic. Im liking the look of both euro and cfs weeklies for January. Only christmas week appears hostile, and wouldn't you know it, the core of the warmth here will be Dec 25-26. The insane temp departures to the south won't make it to the north for long, but it certainly looks like a mild holiday week.

This doesn't remind me of 2022-23 at all. That was a brutal cold shot but it lasted like 5-7 days. We had a solid 3+ weeks of cold/snow in the region this time. And this break isn't necessarily going to last as long as some of these posts imply. Per both the euro and cfs weeklies the above avg temps are gone before the end of the first week of Jan in the Lakes (add one more seek for thr southern sub). And there will be fleeting snow chances before then.

Woke up to bare ground for the first time since November 28th but snow showers all day have given a fresh coating. This neighborhood snowman must take ozempic

Why not a snow squall warning?

You have today and yesterday mixed up.

Not sure how long the more hostile pattern will last, but definitely dont see any pattern sustaining itself the rest of winter. One analog year that Ive not seen thrown around, but this winter is somewhat resembling so far (at least through the forecasted end of December) is 1964-65.

I frequently hear new englanders complain of the Grinch storm, a storm/temps right around Christmas that melt away a true White Christmas. We got our taste of that today. Snow has been on the ground since November 29th....but a Grinch showed up 1 week before Christmas today. Fortunately, the Christmas season is more than just the 25th, but its very impressive to see the extreme temps the CONUS has seen this month, both way below and way above avg. It bares repeating, this is a trademark of a traditional La Nina. Last year we heard that it "didnt act" like a Nina. This winter seems to be acting just like a Nina. One analog year that Ive not seen thrown around, but this winter is somewhat resembling so far (at least through the forecasted end of December) is 1964-65.

Snow has melted except some piles and patches (patches will be gone by later). First time the ground is bare since November 28th. Not a fan. But not unexpected. Fun fact...this is my 31st winter measuring snow. The season with the most days with 1"+ snowcover was 2013-14 with 96 days and the least was 2023-24 with 18 days. The average is around 50 days. So far in 2025-26, I have 21 days, meaning I surpassed 2023-24 before the Winter Solstice.

I understand theres only so much you can do with observation sites...but i feel the ultimate goal should always be having the best setup and doing it the right way. We see so much of "this station runs cold so its only fair this one runs warm"...or..."they undermeasured that snowfall so they should overmeasure this one".

Snow is beginning to melt here. Been a 3 week stretch of deep winter and while Im not looking forward to the change, Im thinking Jan-Mar will be a wild ride, as most "textbook" Ninas are. This means multiple chances for big snowstorms, arctic blasts, and torches. Im not great at indicies, but Im great at pattern recognition. With all the talk of this being a "textbook" Nina, this is what I see the next 3 months. Wouldnt surprise me if the past 3 weeks is the most sustained any pattern gets all winter.

Dont leave us gay dudes out my man! Jokes aside....theres no question that big snowstorms occur when its bitterly cold. And those are the best imo. I love the cold powder. But honestly, a traditional up and down roller coaster La Nina pattern can often produce some of the best snowstorms here. Weve had nonstop deep winter here since late November- bitter cold and constant snowcover. But no big storms. Today snowmelt is underway . With the pattern changing and deep winter taking a break, I wonder if we have a lot more fun/frustration ahead in Jan-Mar? Wouldnt surprise me if this 3 week stretch was the most sustained pattern we get all winter. La Ninas often carry the chance for multiple big snowstorms, arctic blasts, and torches. Buckle up.

They do not look like January 1990 verbatim. January 1990 was much warmer in the Northeast and midwest than today's run of the euro weeklies is for January 2026. You are essentially doing the same thing you constantly criticize JB for doing. You are taking a mild look and throwing out eye catching warm years past, despite the fact they dont match.

Theres a large pile at the mall here. That will be here all winter. But the rest, stay tuned lol.

After the holiday mild period, will be interesting to see if Jan-Feb takes on a classic nina like roller coaster pattern. With plenty of cold in Canada and plenty of warmth to the south, that may just be in the offing as we head deeper into winter.

I didnt say he isn't, just pointing that out. GHD1 was still a big storm here...it just failed to reach expectations in SE MI. Actually boggles my mind that this bust is still talked about with everything thats happened in the 15 years since. Its not like we expected 3 feet and got 0, we expected 12-18" and got 8-11" GHDII (16.7" DTW) and Jan 22 2005 (12.2") were huge storms at Detroit with plenty of arctic air around...to say nothing of the insanity of Jan 6, 2014. Following nearly 11" of snow temps dropped to -14° in hours.

White Christmas looking unlikely. Bummer, but we've had snowcover the entire Christmas season to now, so thats been nice. After the holiday mild period, will be interesting to see if Jan-Feb takes on a classic nina like roller coaster pattern. With plenty of cold in Canada and plenty of warmth to the south, that may just be in the offing as we head deeper into winter.