michsnowfreak

We dont have a summer banter thread. But I thought this looked neat. 4 seasons look into my backyard (didn't have a good spring pic other than late spring).

This is the deadliest heatwave on record in the U.S. Detroit saw temps over 100° for 7 straight days (peaking at 104 on day 1 and 7). The city allowed people to sleep in parks since their homes/apartments were baking. The MI state record was set in Mio with a temp of 112°.

You can see the smoke in the air in the pic i took at last night's Tigers/Cubs game.

Models overdoing heat the last few years has been a JOKE. in 2023 there were like 6-7 times the gfs had Detroit at like 106-108°. And im not talking day 16, im talking day 7-10. For reference, the hottest temp on record is 105° (1934). The end result is that 2023 was the first year since 1915 where Detroit didn't eclipse 90°.

I recall that username, messenger. Sorry to hear he passed. 2004-05 was an excellent winter here. One of the rare times when we both got slammed from the same storm (Jan 22-23). The most annoying thing about that winter was a handful of bad measurements at DTW; they ended up with 64" and I had 80". There's always the occasional storm you question, but that was the last winter I really was unhappy with DTW measurements (I know with nyc that's every year ). There were a few events that had razor cutoff so I did get more than them anyway, but id estimate they were really in the low 70s.

I do understand that. But again I think that the hostile pattern is way overlooked by some. It may cause some to eat words when a pattern is favorable for SNE and provides some juicy noreasters

I know you guys concentrate on big storms, but I actually have noticed that sometimes a wetter climate does lead to MORE snow in northern climates than it wouldve seemingly produced in the past during a similarly hostile pattern/base state.

Picked up 1.68" rain Wed night into yesterday. The gray, hazy overcast skies only let us get into the mid-60s and you could SMELL campfire smoke in the air. Also had a bit of rain this morning, still hazy.

Super cool! Ill raise you one... I usually am only out of town for 4 days or so during winter when I take a trip north. If it snows during one of those days, depending on the circumstances I have a couple different people on standby. If its a general snowfall with low wind, I use one person to come to my house and use my snow board, but if its one of those squally lake events, I have a more skilled person nearby and use their measurement. I also look at my ring camera to see if i approve.

Its extremely rare that I agree w/ TCC on anything, but I do on this one. Jan 1999 was an incredible stretch locally. PLUS...this came after multiple anemic winters. We didnt see a double digit snow depth from Feb 1994 thru Dec 1998, then bam, 2 feet on the ground in January 1999. Plus, the 1990s were my school years, so really 1999 was snow Id never seen before. Deeper snow was far more common in the 1970s-mid 1980s and 2000s-2010s than it was from the late 1980s to late 1990s, ie: my childhood. It remains the 3rd snowiest January on record (27.3"), behind only 1978 (29.6") & 2014 (39.1"). This is a pic of my mom shoveling snow Jan 13, 1999

I would take 2015-16 anyday over 1982-83 here. It was much snowier, tho still obviously a warm winter.

It was a blowtorch winter for sure. Especially Dec & Feb. Jan was seasonable temps but with record snow the first half here. The infamous blizzard of '99 on Jan 2nd was followed by storm after storm. Definitely made it memorable, but certainly doesnt hold a candle to great winters of the '00s-'10s.

Thats awesome. Ive ran across some others who keep personal records. So cool to have us snow weenies that do that. If I am out of town and its going to snow, I have a standby observer for me too lol.

I can gladly say I dont remember 1982-83, as my mom was pregnant with me haha. But I will say for as much as I dog on 1995-96, at face value 1982-83 was absolutely a much shittier winter. It could have easily been the least snowy winter of all-time (just 9" thru 3/19) but heavy spring snow let us finish at a still terrible 20". But the fact that most of winter was bare after a 64F Christmas is just disgusting. But the winter of 1995-96 was a cold winter with a parade of storms all around us, whereas 1982-83 seemed more like a mild winter with 1 great storm in the east. 1995-96 was the definition of screw zone, but SE MI really hasnt had a screwzone winter since, so I guess its better to let it all out at once (by screwzone I mean how we performed compared to nearby areas).

By the way, 1993-94 was definitely a solid winter here. I was quite young (10) so I remember only bits and pieces. It had a 10" snowstorm in Jan and 2-storms of 6" in Feb, plus the coldest day of the 20th century at Detroit (Jan 19th, high -4F, low -20F). It was certainly one of the best winters of the 1990s, but between my young age and the fact that there were just too many good 2000s/2010s winters, that even if i let it leapfrog 1998-99 as best winter of the '90s and allow for not remembering it all, it could still be no higher than #10 on my alltime list (and possibly lower), whereas I know its one of the favorites on the east coast.

I frequently talk on fb to a former poster from here who lives on Long Island and I definitely see how different the weather is and is to predict. It's crazy for me to talk to a fellow snow lover who had seen several 30" snowstorms in his lifetime yet in recent years gets excited if grass tips are covered. That's such a wild climate. Believe me we get plenty of model mayhem here, but the sheer magnitude of some of the storms that models see hitting the coast that never materialize, or the ones that can sneak up on you is crazy. And i imagine the mixing scenario must be maddening, once models lock in mega qpf but disagree on a mix line. We still get clippers but seems like not as many as we used to. A clipper is actually usually a fun thing to track because some will surprise you with great dynamics and a boost when it crosses the lakes (but just as many others peter out to crap). I love cutters, swfe, and bowling balls...then the unpredictability of lake squalls in the storms wake. So as long as we get the goods im never one to piss and moan when you guys get hammered.

Good point. But I was determined to make that list until I ran into a 1990s winter lol (anyone from here will tell you how superior 2000s/2010s winters were to 1990s). I could also arguably put 2020-21 ahead of 1998-99, but the paralyzing snow of Jan 1999, coming after a snowless Fall and anemic 90s winters was a sight to see. Then we had another snow blitz in Mar 1999.

All of those great except the infamous nightmare of 1995-96. Funny story. In 1994-95 (I was 11) i would sneak outside and measure snow on the back porch and my dad would get mad thinking I was tracking snow in. But the next winter my mom said I could measure with my budding interest in weather, so that began my now 30 winters and counting of continuous snow record (I bought a house a mile from my parents so my record is basically the same location). So 1995-96 was my inaugural year. In the years before internet and stuff i primarily relied on TWC. And i remember vaguely seeing coverage of these monster snowstorms and I kept thinking, why is everything missing us? I ended up with 31.3" but 12" of that came in March, including a 7" power crusher on March 20th. Even in January it was hard to enjoy back to back 2-inch snowfalls knowing they were originally forecast as big storms for us that veered south last minute. In the years since I was able to figure out how the pattern really was, and im SO glad I've never seen anything like it since!

My favorite going back to 1990: 2013-14 2010-11 2007-08 2014-15 2004-05 2002-03 2008-09 2017-18 2000-01 1998-99

For example tho, I think the 2024-25 winter could've had a lot more potential than it showed. So a similar outcome this coming winter may yield better results, especially for the Midwest and northern New England, but possibly further south as well. I think avoiding a major drought in the central and west states this summer will help too. 2 of the past 3 winters are good examples of how the pattern is more noticeable than the final snow number here. As I said, the 2024-25 winter dropped total snowfall inches of just upper 20s in Detroit to the highest being upper 30s in the microclimate NW burbs. But yet the public viewed it as an "old fashioned winter" due to the frozen white landscape much of the time (area-wide, but esp north). Just two years prior in 2022-23, snowfall totals ranged from just under 40" at Detroit to the upper 50s in those NW burbs, yet the vibe was "what winter?/mild winter" due to the mild temps and frequent bare ground spells. Now i dont entirely discount the final snow number- far from it. I was frustrated this past winter at what i thought was a winter that underperformed the hand it was dealt, much like I thought 2022-23 was snowier than it should be. So if the pattern this Fall looks similar to last fall, I urge everyone to not expect anything close to a verbatim repeat of their sensible weather.

Good point in bold. There are winters where we both have done well, BUT when you examine even those winters, you will notice its different parts of the winter that stand out for each of us.

Its always ok to agree with some stuff and disagree with others. Thats pretty much where im at. I do hope nyc sees some good winters soon, but obviously im more concerned with what goes on in SE Michigan and im still liking 2025-26 a lot at this early stage. I like that this thread sometimes strays OT (but not necessarily TOO OT lol) because I really look at it as an all encompassing "thoughts for next winter" thread rather than JUST Enso. But I do feel like different regions definitely have different goals in mind. NYC folks seem to really be into the final snowfall number. And while that certainly interests me, Im more about how the winter is going to act as a whole. Its like one big puzzle. The timing and length of different patterns will really dictate what kind of winter it is, and especially how the general public perceives it, moreso than what that final number is following the last snowfall, likely in April 2026.

Just a warning, some of us in the lakes forum have speculated that he is a former troll account. And same here; bluewaves theories, regardless of whether it is just to get the pattern correct, or its a convenient scapegoat to make nyc winters warmer/less snowy, or a mixture of both...would imply good winters here in MI so I would have NO issue with his outcome. I just dont like anyone talking in absolutes as if they have a crystal ball. While its very rare for NYC to have a better winter than here (tho it has happened- see 1957-58, 1960-61, 1995-96), it's a little more common for NYC to have a more favorable pattern for their local climate than we have for ours (even if the end result is still a "wintrier" winter here). So these assumptions that NYC is just never going to have a good winter barring a volcano eruption are imo ridiculous regardless of ANY background factors, let alone all of them. When it happens Ill be waiting patiently to hear the reasoning why it did. Especially from a snow perspective since this past winter was much, MUCH colder than anticipated, so the lack of east coast snowfall took the spotlight away from temps. If we ever DO have one of those years where its a good NYC winter and not a good one here, Ill be in a shitty mood, so I will REALLY wait for that explanation

How were they? Hot, hot, hot lol. The 1930s-1950s were by far the era of most 90F+ days here. We had a spike again in the 2010s (but even then, far less 100s than the 1930s-50s) but have already digressed in the 2020s. Detroit has hit 100F+ a total of 38 times in 155 years of record, and 21 of those 38 times fell between 1930-1955.

Another cool start, 48F at DTW and cooler elsewhere, but this time its warming up rapidly.