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michsnowfreak

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Everything posted by michsnowfreak

  1. It doesnt matter if its cold or warm or anything in between. Its all about skycover that day.
  2. On January 12th, DTW saw 1.04" precip and 4.6" snow, and that was all snow except the last 0.04". It's like walking through mashed potatoes.
  3. Its a ridiculous description to begin with. When has Mansfield EVER had continuous snowcover Dec-Mar? It has nothing to do with "anymore". Their decade with the most Dec-Mar snowcover days (1"+) was the 1970s, which averaged 51 days out of a possible 121. Thats less than half. The 2000s & 2010s were steady with snowcover, seeing more than the 1980s-90s, on par with the 1960s, and more than the 1950s (data gets sketchy before 1949). Two winters is not ground zero for a change in climate. You seem to be fascinated with Toledo snow stats lately too. So I decided to look up some stats myself. Toledos snowiest winters (since 1886) #1 is 86.3" is 2013-14, breaking the previous record by 13.2". 7 of the top 20 snowiest have come since 2003. 2 of the top 20 least snowy have come since 2003 (the last 2 winters) Winters with the highest snow depth (since 1893) 03.) 2020-21 (18") 06.) 2014-15 (15") 07.) 2000-01 (14") 09.) 2013-14 (13") 13.) 2008-09 (12") 2009-10 (12") 2010-11 (12") So in 132 years of record, 6 of the top 15 peak snow depth winters have come since 2009.
  4. Just the usual standard model clown maps making a real good storm into an epic one lol. There were a few ensemble runs where every ensemble mean had 30"+ at aberdeen
  5. Crazy. Cant talk futility until April in the upper Midwest, and March in the rest of the midwest IMO. Certainly doesnt make up for a shitty winter, but the snow blitz of March 21-26 has plummeted Minneapolis from 2nd least snowy winter to 24th least snowy, and Im sure the ranking will be even lower. At Detroit, 12.7" of the seasons 23.5" fell in a 9-day stretch Jan 11-19, but thanks to that, as Ive mentioned, we are just at 18th least snowy, and easily could fall out of the top 20 with a small April snowfall.
  6. The 1863-64 was well documented locally to have an extremely severe cold snap around New Years and little winter weather the rest of the season. It was considered a very open winter outside of the first half of January, with very little snow, so that total is 100% believable. Documentation about the winter at Detroit (from "Memorials of a Half Century", a fantastic 1883 book by Bela Hubbard). 1863-64: New Years will be remembered for violent & sudden reversal of temperature. December had been mild with only occasional floating masses of ice on the river. Rain set in December 31st, along with a 24-hour temp fall 40F the evening of Dec 31st to -20F the evening of January 1st. Little snow fell here, but the fall was heavy in Chicago. On Jan 5th, 4” of snow gave good sleighing & it remained cold & sunny the next few weeks. By January 18th thawing left the ground bare, and by January 25th the broad expanse of the river was now free from ice. On January 27th it hit 60F. The first half of February continued mild, thawing during the day & scarcely freezing at night. Frost out of the ground. February 15th was as bright & balmy as April, but a flurry of snow & big change the next day followed by -3F on February 17th.
  7. The reason I noted the airport is because I have a friend who lives in Toledo and each of the last 2 winters theyve had more than the airport to their south/west. Much less than DTW, but more than TOL, so Id estimate Toledo the city has probably had 12-15" this season. Monroe, MI is at 17". The last 2 years have been very latitude based in the region. I see Mansfield, OH is at just 8.4". Good Riddance El Nino. And I know its xmacis. Xmacis doesnt always have all the data, it has to be input by someone lol. There is no reason that data that had been counted for 100+ years suddenly is not if there is no M data or anything. Im sure if it was a record that was to your liking youd 100% agree, seeing as though you frequently reference old data
  8. Toledo snowfall records began in 1885. They were always included until nws Cleveland randomly revamped their website and it now starts in 1890. There was no missing data, so the 6.0" figure is absolutely believable. And actually, Toledo Express airport is a little bit over an hour drive from Detroit Metro airport, although I have absolutely no idea what Detroit has to do with Toledo. Especially as I have said many times the state-line snow cutoff the last 2 winters has been insane. Not sure why we are using DTW as a drive time base, but Detroit Metro Airport (23.5") is a 65 minute drive to Toledo Express (9.6") airport but only a 25 minute drive to U of M Ann Arbor, where 36.9" has fallen this year.
  9. New York City saw just 0.5" in 1997-98 until a freak, unexpected snowstorm dropped 5.0" on March 22nd. It was gone in less than a day. But instead of ranking as least snowy winter, due to that unexpected spring storm, it "only" ranks as 8th least snowy.
  10. We have not had a sub-20" winter since 1969, but they did happen. Not frequently, but Detroits full top 20 lowest snowfall 01.) 12.9" - 1936-37 02.) 13.2" - 1881-82 03.) 13.7" - 1948-49 04.) 15.2" - 1918-19 05.) 15.4" - 1965-66 06.) 15.8" - 1889-90 07.) 16.6" - 1952-53 08.) 17.1" - 1968-69 09.) 18.0" - 1957-58 09.) 18.0" - 1960-61 11.) 20.0" - 1982-83 12.) 22.0" - 1945-46 13.) 22.6" - 1937-38 14.) 22.8" - 1943-44 15.) 23.2" - 1888-89 16.) 23.4" - 1941-42 16.) 23.4" - 1997-98 18.) 23.7" - 1999-00 19.) 24.1" - 2003-04 20.) 25.1" - 1988-89 Some late season facts about the above...they were terrible enough, but look where they could have been without.... #4) 1918-19: A heavy, wet snowstorm of 5.8" on Mar 9th, largest of the season, melted in 2 days, gave a big boost to the total #6) 1889-90: A 5.0" heavy, wet snowstorm on March 29th was by far largest of the season #9) 1960-61: Winters fiercest storm was its last - 3.0" fell at Detroit on April 16/17, but 4-5" fell in some suburbs and blizzard conditions clogged highways in west MI #11) 1982-83: Disaster winter sees a late rally with a 7.3" snowstorm March 20/21 then another 3.4" snowfall April 17th #13) 1937-38: 3 April snowfalls (4th, 6th, 8th) dropped a total of 3.9" at Detroit. The 4th dropped up to 4" well north of Detroit and the 6th dropped 6-7" near the Ohio border #14) 1943-44: 15.7" of the seasons 22.8" fell after Feb 9th & 3.8" fell before November 16th,. So from Nov 17-Feb 9, a total of 3.3" fell. #16) 1941-42: A 4.2" wet snowfall on April 9/10 would be the seasons largest
  11. Interesting in that those simulations seem to show much cooler summers than we have seen recently.
  12. I totally respect everyone having their own opinion/twist on. Its just me personally, Ive seen so many times you get a bad stretch in Dec up to mid-Jan and the word "futility" (which I loosely think of as top 5) starts popping up, then we end up with average to above average snowfall. And thats also why I say numbers are just one aspect of the story of a winter. Detroit is at 23.5", which is 18th least snowy winter, and just 0.7" would knock us down to #20 and 1.7" knock us out of the top 20, and thats easily doable. Doesnt mean it was an enjoyable winter at all, just means that quite a few winters saw less snow fall. A look at this funky snow season at DTW - since 1880 October - 11th snowiest out of 144 November - 64th snowiest out of 144 December - 2nd least snowy out of 144 January - 27th snowiest out of 144 February - 20th least snowy out of 144 March - 12th least snowy out of 144
  13. This is an excellent example of two of my weather beliefs: 1) Its WAY too early to even discuss the likelihood of season futility being achieved in the midwest/Lakes in Dec, Jan, or Feb, no matter how bad it has been. 2) Season total snowfall is just 1 metric of a winter for a true winter weenie. Doesnt always tell the entire story.
  14. Fair enough. The January stretch was excellent, so I'd probably lean closer to D than D-.
  15. Detroits northern suburbs hve a bit of a micro climate for heavier snowfall due to elevation. Particularly with LES & borderline events. Some years it's more influential than other years when you get a lot of borderline events. A great example would be this January 12th. The heart of the metro area got about 4-5 inches of 5:1 ratio snow, but the elevated northern suburbs got 8-9 inches with the same amount of liquid equivalent. It would be great to have snow measurements from Detroit city Airport, but essentially that is nothing more than an unmanned asos, so the only actual reports to come out of Detroit proper since the late 1960s are spotter/coop reports. Since it juts east into the Lake/River, the city proper and northeast into SE macomb County is one of the worst spots in the area for snow overall, so DTW in the suburbs gets a little bit more (even though they are South and West of the city) and would be more representative of the area (probably why they became the official site in 1966). However, when you get a few events throughout a season where the city gets noticeably more (and Mar 22 is an extreme example), I would imagine DTW only averages a few inches more annually. The last 2 winters have been very North to South oriented in the region. DTW has more than doubled Toledo's snowfall each of the last 2 winters, and detroit's northern suburbs have handily had more than DTW. Law of averages says big Ohio Winter probably coming within a few years.
  16. My sister has lived in Saint Clair Shores for 10 years now and the number of times we get more snow than her far outnumbers times we get less (don't think I don't ask for updates in our group text every single snowfall). But yesterday they got nailed. Seemed quite high ratio too. When I was out with my nephews, the snow in the shaded areas remained fluffy while in the sun it was great packing and rapidly melting.
  17. 2013-14 is the snowiest on record! A local climatologist said when you combine everything together, it was easily the most severe winter on record for the area. The official tally was #1 snowiest and #8 coldest,m (plus the 4th coldest Nov-Mar on record) but when you factor in the wind and the high snow depths (snow depths were in the double digits for nearly the entire time early january through mid march) it is king. Winters before the official record started always fascinate me because we have tidbits of information that we can piece together, but not enough to make us say for certain what happened. I have a couple books where people kept journals of the weather, so I'm trying to piece together ideas of how the Winters were. Needless to say, while it was a colder era overall, there were multiple mild "open" winters as well (Mild winters that were unusually bare of snow were always referred to as open winters back in the day). Your area in general is a bit more feast/famine than we are here in the lakes, so I'd think 100 inches would certainly seem possible If you could get a parade of noreasters & enough cold air.
  18. Yes. December 2015 was very mild here too, however, when you add in the fact that your area is warmer to begin with, plus the higher departures, 2015 was absolutely more impressive on the East Coast. Meanwhile, March 2012 was bonkers here. And I don't care to ever repeat it. All it's doing is asking for imminent disaster to the fruit crops in the Great Lakes. Just 3 years later, we would see an equally impressive negative departure in february 2015. Speaking of 2011-12, yes, it was a terrible snow season, but it was totally allowed considering the stretch it resided within. The current 30 year average snowfall at Detroit is 45", but that is thanks in part to a number of very snowy winters in the 2000s/10s, as the long term average is closer to 41". 2007-08: 71.7" 2008-09: 65.7" 2009-10: 43.7" 2010-11: 69.1" 2011-12: 26.0" 2012-13: 47.7" 2013-14: 94.9" 2014-15: 47.5"
  19. I would go D/D-. My lowest seasonal snowfall (21.3") in 29 years of records. A horrendous December and a bad Feb and March too. A terrible winter for snowcover. No 6"+ storms either, but we were kind of due for a winter without one as we have been racking them up, so might as well be during the train wreck of 2023-24. All that said. I couldn't go F as many here seem to have hinted they would, for: -Halloween snow. It was neat to see a dusting during trick or treat. My first measurable Oct snow since 2006. -Nov 27 whiteout squall. It was legit near zero visibility for a few moments. I was on the road and could not a see a traffic light that was feet away. -Jan 12 thundersnow was incredible. The 4.2" snowfall would be my largest event of the season, but would have been much greater if not for the 5-1 ratios. -Jan 11-24: the 2 weeks that featured deep winter, the one true saving grace of the season. Snow fell nearly daily, multiple events, wind chills to -30, a brutal cold MLK day (hi/lo 9/-3), and a week of 5-7" snowpack was perfect for all outdoor winter fun. -Feb 15- in and out like a summer storm, a deluge of snow came down for an hour and dropped 2".
  20. If you're going to get screwed on a storm/cutoff, no better time than Spring. The snow just gets obliterated in the sun. Built an Easter snow bunny with my nephews at my sister's house, and despite the cold and dry air, sun is just killing the snow. Needless to say my half inch is gone. What's YYZ season? Are they the only station in Toronto that does snow? DTW is at 23.5". If no more measurable snow falls, this would rank as the 18th least snowy winter. A terrible season regardless, but January January'd so that gave the middle finger to those wishing for true futility. Detroit city probably got about 5" to DTWs 0.5" yesterday, but the season would be a wash I'm sure, as DTW frequently gets more than the city, and I can confirm this in January. Detroit city has not had snow measurements in over 50 years. In my 29 years of measuring snow in my backyard, this is only my 4th season in the 20s, and my lowest of the entire lot at 21.2". The previous low was 25.5" in 2011-12 & high 96.2" in 2013-14. Hoping year #30 is a good season next year!
  21. We will never know. But sounds like a good bet. I know in at least the 1930s-70s, the monthly logs would have the peak snow depth, not just the peak depth at obs time (if it happened to be deeper). But now it just goes by 7am, and probably the same back in 1900.
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