michsnowfreak

It is very dry and dusty here in southern MI. I took the day off and went apple picking with a friend. Apple crop is plentiful but not sure about corn here. I do know that color is well ahead of schedule.

Dry, sunny, and dusty...with early color continuing.

Why use JFK? They aren't a first order station, are they? I always assumed NYC was the main one. Plus, JFKs numbers seem way out of sync with the rest of your area last winter. NYC was -2.5° in Jan and -0.9° in Feb and LGA was -2.0° in Jan and -0.6° in Feb.

Agree 100%. I have come across quite a few hot summers and mild, snowless winters from the 1800s-1860s, but with lack of official records, they are never looked at beyond what minimal info there is.

Everytime you guys bring up 95-96 I just cringe. I mean its 30 years ago and I was 12...and there have been many amazing winters since...but 95-96, just gross lol (except for the Mar 20 storm).

Interesting how apparently 1828 was a super hot summer.

Yeah for you guys 2014-15 was the winner. It was a severe winter here for sure, bitterly cold and white, but outside of one huge snowstorm Feb 1st, it was a much, MUCH quieter winter than 2013-14.

The entire pattern was definitely EVERYTHING going right. And everything busted in our favor. In 150 years of data, 2013-14 ranks for Detroit: Total Snowfall- #1 1"+ Snowcover Days - #1 6"+ Snowcover Days - #1 12"+ Snowcover Days - #1 Cold- DJF #8, NDJFM- #4 And constant wind for drifting snow. Rural open areas in Monroe County, MI (between Detroit & Toledo) had snow completely bury some barns.

It was the 6th coldest Aug 25-Sept 7 period at Detroit, but coldest since 1935. Color is coming on earlier than normal as well.

I understand that, I just meant that if a pattern in place is going to produce a lot of cold and snow, nothings going to stop it.

I dont think we'll ever see another 2013-14 here and I've said that many times. However, if everything aligned pattern wise for a similar winter (again, highly unlikely), I do not buy for one minute the bogus "new climate weather adjustment" bs. The winter of 2013-14 was decades into the mainstream acknowledgment of "global warming" and was the most severe winter this area had recorded. If you get a favorable pattern where everything aligns for any given region, you absolutely can get a severe winter and cc is going to do nothing to stop it.

Sunny, dry, and early color continues.

The 2 week period of Aug 25 - Sept 7 (last week of Aug + first week of Sept) was 6th coldest on record for Detroit and coldest since 1935. There is also way more color than usual for early September. Do I really feel there is any correlation to winter? No. But since every warm record is brought up by some as meaning something for winter, figured it was worth a mention .

Exactly. Theres always a few stressed trees showing color by late August, but the amount of color for early September is clearly more than normal this year. 45F again at DTW. Its incredible how many upper 30s and low 40s the cold spots of SE MI have had the past 2 weeks. The period of Aug 25 - Sept 7 (the last week of Aug & first week of Sept) was 6th coldest on record for Detroit, and coldest since 1935.

Color continues to expand. Seems like we will be looking at an early color show, especially if it stays dry.

Low of 45° at DTW missed the record low by 2° this morning. ARB was 37°. Early September sweater weather!

Not sure about MUCH warmer than normal, but overall warmer than normal wouldn't surprise me at all. It actually fits perfectly with your expected nina. A mild Fall with a sharp turn colder in late November or early December is classic nina. The caveat of course is that "warmer than normal" comes with rapidly cooling averages. Not sure how far south this applies, but for here at least, even a warm October is far from hot. A few days of low humidity 80s and a few frosts normally happen in warm Octobers.

They are very biased towards enso and also biased towards a warmer climate. That is why periods of cold are never seen far out, you will see them grow colder as the timeframe nears.

1000%. I can't speak for the east coast, but here in Michigan it absolutely would have snowed more synoptically if it wasnt as cold and dry as it ended up. It snowed nearly every day for long stretches much of winter, yet we finished over a foot below normal. That is as anti "new climate" as you can get.

If most here follow model longterm seasonal snowfall forecasts over anything else, we have a problem . A longterm snowfall model forecast is probably the least accurate thing out there. Temp/precipitation bad enough....but snowfall? Model snow maps are to be taken with a grain of salt 48 hours out, much less 7 months out.

Pretty big fail last winter.

In 150 years of record, 80 saw temps of 80F+ in October. So while not common to get many, getting 1 or 2 is fairly normal. The most consecutive years with 80F+ in October is 6 years (1958-1963), and the most consecutive without hitting 80F is also 6 years (1885-1890).

Heres a good example.... Last winter, 2024-25, Detroit & Boston, two cities with similar snowfall averages (but vastly different climos) saw similarly below avg snowfall. In Detroit at least, I can confirm the winter was colder & drier than anticipated. Fortunately the snowcover held up well. Detroit saw 28.7" & Boston 28.1". From Nov-Apr, a trace or more of snow fell on 80 days at Detroit...and 29 days at Boston. Mood flakes in the Great Lakes are always a nice touch, but a synoptic pattern is still important for those outside the belts. Now, in the true snow belts of upper MI, where few people actually live, being a snowfall observer would honestly be a full time job in winter. You can get measurable snow every day for months on end.

Even though that is the far NW tip of upper Michigan, it is still extremely rare to see snowflakes on September 4th. Its almost funny...thats literally a 4-month window between the end of one season and the start of the next lol. In winter though, unless you live in the Great Lakes you wont understand how common it is to see flakes flying constantly. Even in SE MI outside the snowbelt, Im like an owl looking outside for those first flakes in Oct or Nov, but by mid-winter its almost like youre immune to the harmless flurries or light snow showers falling all the time. The key to a great winter Great Lakes-wide is an excellent LES AND excellent synoptic pattern.

Wet snowflakes seen in the keewenaw peninsula today.