michsnowfreak

I havent followed this thread like I have the enso thread in the main forum, but honestly, I haven't seen anyone be optimistic for a "good winter". Its weird because I keep seeing posts like this cautioning optimism (rightly so) but I never see any optimistic posts in the first place . What i see is multiple reasonable posts explaining why a subpar winter doesn't mean it will be all-time bad despite an all-time nino. The trolls misread this and eat it up but I think everyone is prepared for a subpar winter and hoping for the best. Its going to snow and its going to snow many times in northern places. But when you add everything up in April, it very likely will have snowed less than average. Its a simple concept. None of us know exactly when the cold, snowy, or torchy periods will be, so theres still always the unknowns of what will go surprisingly right and what will go frustratingly wrong.

A summer of humid nights again. 2026 finished as the 20th warmest summer on record at Detroit, thanks heavily to the low temps. The total 90°+ days count was 12, which is actually 1 LESS than avg (amd exactly normal per longterm avg).

I found an old newspaper article from October 1982. Remember this came on the heals of a very severe winter in 1981-82 (and the harsh late 1970s still fresh in memory). This article said that forecasters were unanimously calling for a very cold winter in 1982-83. Some were saying it would be the coldest on record in the eastern US and worse than the year before. What a massive fail. It makes you wonder what they were seeing in the first place. Calling for a colder than average winter is one thing but they were extra bold in their predictions. And it also shows how little was known about El Nino as recently as the 1980s.

Random find. I found an old newspaper article from October 1982. Remember this came on the heals of a very severe winter in 1981-82 (and the harsh late 1970s still fresh in memory). This article said that forecasters were unanimously calling for a very cold winter in 1982-83. Some were saying it would be the coldest on record in the eastern US and worse than the year before. What a massive fail. It makes you wonder what they were seeing in the first place. Calling for a colder than average winter is one thing but they were extra bold in their predictions. And it also shows how little was known about El Nino as recently as the 1980s.

Youre pathetic. Seeing as though you dont even understand how the weather works, itll be nice when you disappear mid winter when the east gets a noreaster.

My thoughts on this, agree or disagree.... The range of strong/super El Nino snowfalls for Detroit is 20-45". They all have some subtle things in common (early snow, warm December, much colder Jan and/or Feb) but all have differences as well. If the juiced jet provides above avg precip, it can easily be an ok snow year. It works both ways. Since the beginning of record, there are ebbs and flows with snowfall. The record snow of the 2010s settled down big time in the 2020s. We were due. Now, its been 5 years since we had an above avg snow season, so were due the other way. Last years total snow number was only an inch below the longterm avg (5" below the snowier current avg, thanks to the 2000s-10s). But it had way above avg snowcover and below avg temps, so much so it was rated a severe winter on AWSSI. This is now 2 winters in a row that were "cold and white" without a surplus of snow. Theres no question this winter will be warmer than the last 2, but who says thats automatically less snow? We can easily get mild, snowy winters just as we can get cold, white and dry. The strong Nino of 2015-16 had slightly below avg snow in Detroit but above avg snow in the northern suburbs and well above avg snow towards Flint, all with mild temps. Its interesting that most models have eastern MI in the above avg precip as well, on the western shield of the east coast wetness and with a juiced jet. If that comes to fruition, kiss the "dry" el nino goodbye. Of course, it could also unfold in the nightmarish fashion of warm, wet December then colder/drier Jan/Feb. Its all speculation. All that said, I have never once predicted a good winter this year. I expect a subpar winter. But not crazy so. If i had to put a guess on snowfall, id say 30-33" for DTW.

A +1.5C (+2.7F) winter in Detroit is a DJF temp of 31.1F. A -1.0C (-1.8F) winter in Houston is a DJF temp of 53.4F. I better pack my cowboy boots and hat now

I know youre likely exaggerating, but I have friends in the UK and I can guarantee Chicago will have a colder/snowier winter than London.

November 19th

Cooler fall weather looks like its coming after mid-month. Average highs still firmly in the 70s though, dont expect anything too cool. Just fresh air.

Not the whole winter. Maybe December.

My thoughts are that its subpar from average, but not as much as some are assuming with a strong nino.

Its that time of the year. The rapidly shortening days. The cooler weather coming. The excitement of Fall is here. Weather boards are always so focused on the coming winter (and this is coming from the biggest snow weenie there is), but lets not forget Autumn! Fall with its crisp air and color show is an amazing time of year. October is the cant-be-beat month, but September is when the hints begin.

Any ski resorts that struggled the last few cold winters in the Great Lakes/Northeast have no business being in business in the first place.

This is a trademark of climate for the east coast (particularly NYC south) and the Mid-Atlantic. Which is why I dont understand the panic from some over an expected milder than average mean over a 90 day period. Especially with the overwhelming signal for above avg precip in the east. It is different here in the Great Lakes. Big storms are usually in the 6-12" range but snow is much more frequent than the east coast. So my worry about a crummy winter is not that it wont snow- it will many times- its that in the end total snow, snowcover, and stretches of sustained/deep winter are almost always less than average in strong ninos. I imagine its similar in new England, and even though they do get massive noreasters, i cant imagine 1 storm would make or break their season as it would further down the coast.

For me its sweaters and those cold nights with mild sunny days. The smell of the air. October is amazing in Michigan and theres really very few weather patterns that can ruin it.

The excitement of Fall is getting here. Regardless of what winter brings, Fall with its crisp air and color show is an amazing time of year for many of us. Its the perfect distraction for the pre-winter model circus, especially in a strong Nino year.

Still looks ok for here. Ugly for NE. It will undoubtedly change one way or the other in October.

Oh. Do you have a link?

Heres euro.

They confirmed a tornado in Lincoln Park, like 3 miles N of me. It was a brief EF-0. It was crazy driving through the area because it such a small area but the tree damage stood out like a sore thumb. There were scattered trees down everywhere but the lincoln park tornado the tree massacre was noticeable. This was the 2nd tornado in Lincoln Park this year, the other an EF-1 April 15th. Can never recall one so close.

This is an excellent point. Concentration on the seasonal mean is absolutely pointless for the individual weather events. Hell even the warmest winter of my lifetime, 2023-24, had a 10 day stretch of brutal winter weather. It can go both ways of course (a cold winter can be boring). But any weather enthusiast who is too preoccupied with a likely seasonal mean has done a disservice to his hobby that got him here in the first place.

People were saying canadian would change by September. Well. Its held steady. Not saying its right, but it has not caved to a mild winter.

Detroit had 10 days of 90F, looks like they just touched 90F today for the 11th day of the year.

Its crazy to think an area that relatively far north can have an entire snow season with 0.2" or 1.2".