michsnowfreak

My ENSO knowledge is quite limited, so I go with what I read online lol. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Niño–Southern_Oscillation#:~:text=Recent years when La Niña,2011%2C and 2016–2017.

No arguments from me there.

I figured. In any event it will be interesting to see how the season does unfold. it will also be interesting to see how la nina develops. Certainly early signs are encouraging here for a MUCH better winter next year, but a lllllong way to go.

I also like to look at trends in general for the region (even though I hone in on Detroit). LOTS of mild winters in the 1930s-50s. Im fact, in particular the early 1930s & early to mid 1950s winters were absolutely dominated by warmth and lack of snow. But then an abrupt shift in the 1960s-70s. I mean there were a few scattered warm winter months for sure, but any shitty winter in the 1960s-70s would most likely be due to bad snow patterns rather than warmth. But one of the most intriguing things Ive ever seen in the climate record is the winter yo-yo from 1874-1882. I have noticed it before in passing, but I really started paying more attention to it with this winters warmth making news about Minneapolis surpassing the infamous 1877-78. This stretch of years literally alternated from furnace to ice box every other year. WHAT in the world was going on with the weather patterns over that 8 winter stretch? Each of the 8 winters has remained firmly entrenched in Detroits top 20 coldest/warmest winters list (4 a piece) for the last 140+ years. (all rankings current as of 2024) 1874-75: #2 coldest Detroit, #15 coldest Chicago, #7 coldest Toledo 1875-76: #19 warmest Detroit, #7 warmest Chicago, #9 warmest Toledo 1876-77: #19 coldest Detroit 1877-78: #16 warmest Detroit, #1 warmest Chicago, #8 warmest Toledo 1878-79: #14 coldest Detroit 1879-80: #12 warmest Detroit, #3 warmest Chicago, #2 warmest Toledo 1880-81: #13 coldest Detroit 1881-82: #1 warmest Detroit, #4 warmest Chicago, #5 warmest Toledo

Top 10 ACE years/snowfall following cold season 1933 DTW: 42.6" 2005 DTW: 36.3" 1893 DTW: 45.5" 1926 DTW: 46.3" 1995 DTW: 27.6" 2004 DTW: 63.8" 2017 DTW: 61.0" 1950 DTW: 42.2" 1961 DTW: 28.1" 1998 DTW: 49.5" AVG DTW: 44.3” vs 41.1” mean (8% above mean) all years since 1874; 2 MAN, 3 AN, 2 NN, 2 BN, 1 MBN; 7 out of 10 above median. I also note that for Modoki La Ninas snowfall is also above avg: 1973-74: 49.2" 1975-76: 55.9" 1983-84: 51.8" 1988-89: 25.1" 1998-99: 49.5" 2000-01: 39.0" 2008-09: 65.7" 2010-11: 69.1" 2016-17: 37.9" Avg: 49.2 vs 41.1” mean (20% above mean) all years since 1874. Question though and I apologize if I missed it. Are we just assuming this years ACE will be high? Or is it a foregone conclusion?

How far back to YYZ records go? Surprised none of those warm 1870s-80s winters weren't on the list. 1957-58 and 1965-66 locally had warm, wet Decembers followed by cold dry rest of winter. Each had less snow here than this winter and were really many weenies nightmare pattern (warm and wet to cold and dry). It's surprising that 1957-58 wasn't warmer (outside December) due to a strong Nino and many mild winters preceeding that year. 1972-73 was interesting. It was amidst one of the coldest stretches of the climate record, so I'm wondering if that made it a bit colder overall (arguably the same for 1965-66). We had enough snow to make it an avg snow season (even a tick above at the time). January was warm and snowless but Feb was cold. The first half of March was and still is the warmest on record then we got slammed with a big St Paddy's day snowstorm. Some historic strong Ninos that were very warm winters include 1877-78, 1905-06, & 1918-19. Most areas had little snow as well (esp 1918-19). My take is that strong Ninos are going to have other factors at play (the current weather/climate cycle of the time, Pacific, blocking, PNA, NAO, etc) but in the end, a strong El Nino is never a sign for a good winter, at least in the Great Lakes.

I have a good friend who I always tease because she loves Ohio and she is always saying most of the state is not like what you see on the freeway.

From wettest Jan to 4th driest Feb. *EDIT* bite your tongue. Don't be jinxing next Feb Feb was 3rd warmest, behind only 1882 & 2017, edging past 1998. Winter DJF finished 4th warmest, behind 1881-82, 1931-32, & 1889-90. Still a solid 2° colder than the incredible winter of 1881-82. Despite tying for the second least snowy December and tying for the 19th least snowy February, a pretty snowy January kept this DJF snowfall (20.2") well outside the top 20 futile list. If no more measurable snow fell the rest of the way, this season (22.6") would tie for the 13th least snowy season on record. However, if 2.6" or more falls, it would not make even the top 20.

Oh for sure. When people in the north say "we didn't have a winter" they don't mean it literally. In places like TN or NC If they get one or two measurable snowfalls in a winter and a good cold snap, it's remembered as success. But it's a different beast in the north. For me personally, this winter has probably edged out 2011-12 and 1997-98 for worst winter in my memory. It has been remarkably boring outside of a 2 week stretch in January, but there still has literally been some snow in those boring times lol.

Its interesting that February has never seen a minimum temperature of 50°+, considering January is the coldest month of the year, but 8 times has seen a minimum of 50°+ (highest 55° in 1950 & 2008).

Ok yeah that article is ridiculous lol. I've definitely never seen anything that dramatic in the Detroit Free Press. During summertime heatwaves they would list the number of heat prostration. But 70s would not cause that. The Jan 20-22, 1906 warm spell (also a strong nino) was very impressive for the time of year but the above article is similar to modern day clickbait.

This winter was very typical of a strong nino weather wise in the midwest. I've said it a 100 times, strong El ninos are basically guaranteed crummy winters in this region. There has never been a good one. So during a strong nino, you hope some of the other atmospheric factors are on your side for a few good spells. But this year, other than Jan, the Pacific doubled down for an extra F-U.

I have been to Munising several times right around this time of year and this is usually when they have their deepest snow of the season. Usually it's quite a sight to see with snow nearly to the rooftops of many one story houses. So when I saw that the snow depth until the other day was around 6 inches, it was almost unbelievable.

I've said this for years. Agenda pushing extremists with their unrealistic, outlandish "predictions" are CC's own worst enemy. As for temperature swings, that's more of a gray area because there's always been temperature swings, and they are usually magnified in El Nino and La Nina winters. Assuming you mean this winters over for the foreseeable future?

Does anyone have a link to yearly ACE numbers? @raindancewx has me Intrigued lol.

Just flurries floating in the breeze here, but our 24 hour temperature difference of 72 to 26 was impressive.

A lot of parallels to 1877-78 this winter, including the core of the most insane warm departures in the upper midwest. 1877-78 was very mild here too, but ranks as 15th warmest. Most of the other powerhouse warm winters of that era rank higher (1881-82, 1879-80, 1889-90). Detroit will end up as the 4th warmest winter for 2023-24, but still a solid 2° colder than the grandaddy of winter warmth 1881-82.

March 16-18, 1973 total snowfall: Toledo, OH: 4.0" Detroit: 10.1" Flint: 14.3" Saginaw: 21.7" Despite that incredible storm, March 1973 stands as the 6th warmest on record for Detroit (behind only 2012, 1945, 1946, 2000, & 1910). The first half of March (thru the 15th) in 1973 is by far the warmest on record at Detroit, a full 2.5F warmer than 2nd place 2012.

I have noticed the CFS on weatherbell is hell-bent on a cold snap in late March and early April, as are the Euro weeklies. As we all know, the weeklies have been terrible this season, but early spring cold snaps are common in the always mild strong El Nino winter's here. So I wonder if there is merit to that this year? March 1973 was a torch until a big snowstorm hit Michigan St. Patrick's Day.

What a difference in precipitation. Detroit had the wettest January on record followed by the 4th driest February on record. Feb total at DTW is 0.24" precip, 3.1" snow. Wyandotte is 0.17" precip, 2.5" snow. Jan total at DTW was 5.25" precip, 17.0" snow. Wyandotte 5.14" precip, 16.0" snow.

After an impressive monthly record of 73° yesterday at DTW, and locally very little rain with overnight storms, the temp tumble has begun. So far from 62° at 6am to 38° at 10am.

Glad you are OK Harry! We hardly got anything here. A big clap of thunder just after midnight (no more impressive than the Jan 12 thundersnow) then like a 3 minute downpour of rain, just enough to wet the ground. To my north saw better storms.

Moline was a record smashing 79 yesterday, they are now 17, wind chill -3‍

The winter of 1899-00 was crazy. what started as a very lackluster snow season through january (9.4") saw 58" of snow in Feb-Mar, including a snow depth of 26" March 5. While this was going on in southern MI, it was an extremely light winter up north.

We had such a record stretch of snowy Februarys it seemed as if it would never end. Now we have had 2 duds in a row. Shows that trends break, and makes me feel good that the dud December trend will break soon.