michsnowfreak

That 7 year "snow drought" talk is very over the top IMO. Its a simple regression to get closer to the mean. Its been happening since the beginning of climate records, and its how averages come to be. I looked at a few places. For starters, it looks like only NYC is the one who can claim their all-time low for the past 7 years, not the entire region. And for what thats worth, there were other 7 year periods closer to this 7-year low (1920s & 1950s) than any were to the 7-year high from 2010-16. But the bigger picture is that I just dont understand how the anomalously high number of heavy snow winters in the 2000s and 2010s are just dismissed as if they never happened when discussing recent low snow years. I mean, we arent talking generations ago, and we arent talking slightly above avg snowfall. We are talking very recent years that we ALL remember and that set one heavy snow record after another. NYC avg snowfall last 7 years: 14.9” 7 yr avg 2009-10 thru 2015-16: 41.0” POR avg 28.2” 21st century avg: 29.0” Boston avg snowfall last 7 years: 26.6” 7 yr avg 2008-09 thru 2014-15: 60.7” POR avg: 42.4” 21st century avg: 44.8” Portland, ME avg snowfall last 7 yrs: 51.4” 7 yr avg 2011-12 thru 2017-18: 79.8” POR avg: 65.7” 21st century avg: 66.6” ********** Detroit avg last 7 years: 36.6” 7 yr avg 2007-08 thru 2013-14: 59.8” POR avg: 40.9” 21st century avg: 45.8” Chicago avg last 7 years: 32.2” 7 yr avg 2007-08 thru 2013-14: 51.0” POR avg: 36.4” 21st century avg: 38.0” Milwaukee avg last 7 years: 40.8” 7 yr avg 2007-08 thru 2013-14: 59.0” POR avg 47.3” 21st century avg: 47.2”

I personally already like the look for next winter for the simple fact that the worst case scenario for winter here (strong El Nino) appears to be the least likely scenario for 2025-26. Multiple other things going in our favor too, but not going to get into details this early. Also, a reminder to all that there is a 2025-26 discussion thread.

Youre looking at just a small sample of La Nina years though. Youd really want to look at the entire mean of them and see if any trends have occurred/changed along the way. Several of those winters were actually quite dry here, which strays from the typical la nina mean.

Since the April 10th snowfall, the forecast wet, active, and potentially severe period of weather has produced a grand total of 0.02" rain at DTW

Every year on this date I always remember this snowfall on April 20/21, 2021. Hate late spring snow all you want, but the scenes were beyond stunning, an absolute nature masterpiece. It was the perfect storm. The spring greenup was ahead of schedule, then snow began the afternoon of April 20th and snowed all night until the early morning hours of April 21st. Temps fell to 32F for most of the snowfall, but as the snow ended towards sunrise, skies immediately cleared and temps fell to 29-30F for several hours before the late April sun did its thing. It created some surreal scenes. DTW saw 3.5" of snow, I saw 4.4", Monroe had 5.7" and Toledo had 5.0"

Thanks! No noticeable trends here, quite a variable dataset

Do you have a list of years that were cold neutral following la nina?

With yesterday's warmth and the flowers on my maple starting to emerge, I wanted to see how much they would open in one day. You can really see the difference.

DTW hit 83 yesterday. Most of SE MI topped out between 80-83 (the faulty warm sensor at detroit city airport hit 88, but it's literally running 5-6° too warm, a tcc dream). In the past 2 weeks, southeast Michigan has seen temps from the 10s to the 80s, 1-2" of snow and a tornado.

Yeah we had lots of T depth days too. Jan-Feb basically had no totally "bare" ground. T-1" is better than 0 imo. As you said, looks like winter. And very wise words from your father!

Funny, our grades match (C-) and our snowfall also matches (29.5" here, 29.4" MSP). It actually shows as MSP's 18th least amount of 1"+ snowcover days for a winter season, but as you said, lakes frozen all winter. Snowfall notwithstanding, cold and frozen lakes make winters like 2023-24 & 2024-25 be a huge contrast to each other. While "paying the price" is a subjective and unscientific thought process, it's something I firmly believe in. Why? Because it has happened since the beginning of the climate record, and it will continue to happen. It's how averages come to be. I was saying every year from 2007-15 or so that we will be paying for this, there is no way we can keep up a snowfall pace that has defied our climate record...and we did pay. Not in a MLI-like snowless winter, but rather in multiple subpar mild winters. In fact, we went thru a lot of these mild winters getting quite a bit more snow than we should have, so along comes a Nina 2024-25 winter with its unexpected sustained cold....and an unexpected zzzz stormtrack. But paying the price goes BOTH ways, and this subforum is due for a widespread good snow season. No two winters are alike. But barring a record drought and forecasts of a super nino, snowlovers in this region should enter Fall 2025 with some optimism!

The Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) was developed to objectively quantify and describe the relative severity of the winter season based on snowfall, length of snowcover, and temps. Goes to 1950. https://mrcc.purdue.edu/research/AWSSI/chart https://mrcc.purdue.edu/research/awssi It ranks winters as mild, moderate, average, severe & extreme. This winters index # is 483 at Detroit, which is right on the border of “average” and “moderate” but just squeezing into the high end moderate range, thanks to March (it was solidly average til mid-March). The highest index, by far, was 1277 in 2013-14 & the lowest 242 in 2011-12. In the 75 years of rankings, 27 ranked as less severe than this winter and 47 more severe.

Definitely due for a good region-wide winter now as its been a few years (Id say 2021 probably).

1995-96 had M data for NYC so was not included on the graph. However, one thing to note, is this is the perfect metric for a true "severe winter" since it uses all metrics. Some mild, snowy winters here ranked less severe than much colder winters that saw 20+ less inches of snow. Our top 10 most severe winters since 1950 2013-14: 1277 1977-78: 1046 1981-82: 1031 2014-15: 925 1976-77: 872 2010-11: 864 2008-09: 804 1983-84: 784 1969-70: 780 1978-79: 780

some pics from 2014

Here is the link to play around. They only have NYC & LGA, no JFK. Few years in late 1990s missing https://mrcc.purdue.edu/research/AWSSI/chart https://mrcc.purdue.edu/research/awssi 2010-11 ranked 4th 2014-15: 578 2013-14: 568 1993-94: 552 2010-11: 548

It crossed my mind but honestly, that winter was about so much more than the total snowfall. There was the brutal cold, the constant blowing and drifting of the existing deep snowpack (barns in rural areas between Detroit and Toledo were drifted over rooftops in spots), it was truly all-encompassing. The 0 snow depth on Dec 7th would be my last 0 depth til March 30th. Whats astounding about nearly hitting 100" of seasonal snow in Detroit is it is done without aid of a monster noreaster or lake effect event. While we get LES, its never more than a few inches at a time. Our biggest storm that winter was around 11". It was a true parade of storm after storm, and in the wake of these storms was usually blowing and drifting snow with wind chills way below zero. Day after day of heaven. Though its not a metric i usually use, one of the Lakes posters talks about SDDs (snow depth days), which is a sum of the seasonal snow depth. The winter of 2013-14 at Detroit ranks #1 at 922, with #2 way behind at 573 (and this was 2014-15). The infamous winter of 1977-78 comes in at 4th with 514, over 400 LESS than 2013-14. (I looked it up and first place for NYC is an impressive 660 in 1947-48). The Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) was developed to rates winters (since 1950) related to the intensity and persistence of cold weather, the amount of snow, and the amount and persistence of snow on the ground. The Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) was developed to objectively quantify and describe the relative severity of the winter season. 2013-14 is #1 at Detroit with a score of 1277, and 2nd place (the infamous winter of 1977-78) is 231 less at 1046. NYCs most severe winter since 1950 is 2014-15 with a score of 578.

Thats a detailed map but why are they using 2008-24 average lol? Even after dropping back to reality in 2016, its not enough to erase the heavy snow years from 2008-15, so the average is a bit high for Detroit. 2008-24 avg: 48.7” 1991-20 avg: 45.0” POR avg: 40.9” This winters 28.7" would be 59% of 2008-24 avg, 64% of 1991-20 avg, and 70% of POR avg.

Its my understanding that many if not most airports measure snow off-site now due to the increasing difficulties of being able to do so onsite, as it should be. DTW is measured at a park near the airport.

But if Im understanding, they arent too low because of a faulty sensor, you are saying theyre too low because of the shaded area they are in. A thermometer has to be in the shade, although yes, a more wooded, shaded area would be cooler.

Im sure some of the indices were similar, but really the sensible weather didnt come close here. Obviously the snowfall as has been mentioned (I had my all-time high 96.2" in 2013-14 vs 29.5" this winter....DTW had their all-time high 94.9" in 2013-14 vs 28.7" this winter), but more than just that, 2013-14 was nonstop cold and storm systems thru the Great Lakes whereas this winter was quiet. Sure, it snowed often but much of that was helped by the lakes. Not talking just locally, but the entire region, a huge difference in the activeness of the pattern. Temp wise, 2013-14 was colder than avg every month Nov-Apr. This winter, Nov-Dec mild, Jan-Feb cold, Mar mild, Apr cold.

Thanks! I only did a recap of my backyard weather, but obviously my trip to the UP was the highlight. I take a 3-4 day trip to a snowbelt area of MI every Feb and it almost never disappoints. This year was fantastic, the 2nd deepest snow Id ever seen, behind only 2008. And the ENTIRE 5.5 hour drive from my home in SE MI to the Lake Superior shore, then back again 4 days later was a fresh, powdery winter wonderland. No dirty snow, just glistening beauty.

Some rain, sleet, and snow showers today.

Thanks, and I would tend to agree with you Chicago folks with a D winter for Chicago. The winter in Chicago finished just under a degree colder than average, but even if you use the coldest 30 year averages ala beavis, the bottom line is Chicago saw way less snow than they should have for what the temp was. The 17.6" of snow ranks as Chicagos 5th least snowy winter, but the DJF temp of 27.3F is just 76th warmest.

copied from a post in the Lakes forum. My grade for this winter (the weather itself, not a forecast grade) My grade for this winter here would be a C- The bad- Snowfall finished at 29.5” imby & 28.7” at DTW, a 2nd sub-30” winter in a row. December was lackluster again, and March was a no-show. Also, this was the 2nd winter in a row with no big (6”+) snowstorms. This winter really surprised me (esp since it was a Nina) with its lack of storminess in the region. In the grand scheme of climo, none of this is worrysome because lower snow years were needed to balance out the excessive snowfall from the 2000s-2010s, but its still annoying. The good- Jan and Feb were solid winter. Snow covered the ground nearly the entire time, it was way colder than I had expected with solidly below avg temps, and with the plentiful ice on the lakes and white landscape, it truly was “deep winter” for those 2 months. Despite no big storms, snowflakes were in the air nearly every day. Even though the holiday season saw lackluster snow, a cold & white Thanksgiving weekend made a perfect atmosphere for cutting down the Christmas tree, and a few other outdoor holiday events I attended were also cold & flakey. The unusual- A totally subjective statement, but in some recent milder winters (esp 2019-20 & 2022-23), some remarked that the total snowfall number made the winter look better than it was. I would consider 2024-25 the first winter in 10 years, and just the 2nd this century, where the winter was actually better than the snowfall total would indicate. Nov 29th - first blanket of snow of the season made for a white Thanksgiving weekend Jan 11th- after multiple dustings to 1.5" type snows, finally a decent snowfall Lots of cold winter days whether it was sunny, cloudy, or snowy Plenty of ice on the Detroit River Feb 12 - more fresh powder Feb 16 - conifers always steal the show in snow Feb 16 frigid air behind another snowfall Feb 21 - cold but sunny Feb 22 - plenty of sledding fun in Jan/Feb this year Apr 10 - winters last encore