michsnowfreak

Im wondering if we swap December for February. A characteristic of Nina (or Nina-like atmosphere) here is a cold snowy December and a milder, quieter February. Last winter was the opposite.

We got down to 0F both in March 2014 & 2015. At Detroit officially, so burbs easily below zero. The coldest March morning at Detroit was -4F in 1978 & 2003.

It happens from time to time but the 2015 event was followed by temps around 0F so the bitterly cold, dry crisp air made the glisten far more pronounced then you get after a glaze with a murky overcast and temps around 30F.

2014-15 was a classic severe winter, and one that would have gotten a lot more respect had it not followed directly on the heels of 2013-14. Even I rarely talk about it outside of fleeting mentions of the monster storm and record Feb cold, but I should give it more haha. Nov had a mid month arctic blast with snow for a good week, but then December was zzz city. No meangingful snow and on the mild side. Winter roared back in right after New Years and stayed til mid-late March. Snowfall was frequent in January and the ground covered the entire time, then a Feb 1/2 storm dropped nearly 17" of snow (my biggest) followed by a record cold month. The snow remained deep and fresh with light refreshers but no more big storms. We were in the deep, deep freeze. It was the 2nd February in a row to have wall-to-wall double digit snow depth (prior to 2014, no month had this). Feb was Detroits 2nd coldest on record, just barely behind 1875. On March 3rd a 2-inch snowfall turned to freezing rain and then everything froze solid under another zero wave. For 4 straight days the deep snow had the most shiny, perfect glaze of ice Id ever seen - it was truly incredible. Due to the very light December and March snow the winter finished with a very modest 47.5" - less than half of 2013-14 and only slightly above avg. But the tundra cold and deep snow made the winter so much more severe than the total snow indicated. Going back to 1913 (thats as far back as I have continuous snow depth/ snowcover records), the winters with the most days of 10"+ snowcover: #1) 2013-14: 46 days #2) 2014-15: 32 days #3) 1998-99: 17 days #4) 1981-82: 15 days #5) 2008-09: 15 days So the back-to-back winters combined for 78 days with 10"+ snow depth. No winter/winters from the old days came CLOSE to that. Below is a pic after the Feb 2nd storm, and then the glazed snowpack from March 2015.

Wall to wall snow and cold is still kind of subjective. By far the poster child for that here is 2013-14. Honestly, no other winter came close. I mean, 1977-78 was wall to wall but it got quiet after the Jan blizzard. In 2013-14, it was truly non stop snow, non stop bitter cold, and non stop deep snowpack. 1993-94 was a solid winter here but I wouldnt call it wall to wall. 1995-96 was cold and dry yuck. 2002-03 was a pretty wall to wall winter, but Id easily put 2008-09, 2010-11, 2013-14, 2017-18 ahead of that. 2007-08 was wall to wall snow but not cold. NOV 2013 DEC 2013 JAN 2014 FEB 2014 MAR 2014 APR 2014

Definitely lots if generalizations haha. The current 7 year avg for Detroit is 36.6". Below avg but nothing eye popping at all (1880-2025 avg is 41"). Nothing close to lowest. The highest 7 year average was 59.8", ending in 2014. (I averaged 61.1"!) The lowest 7 year average was 26.5", ending in 1950. The 1990s were crap here. Very similar to the 1950s. As someone who's school years spanned the 1990s its crazy how much more snow I remember in college and beyond than growing up (the anti old-timer).

Exactly. My house actually cooled to like 65 last night due to the cool air even though I had the AC set on 70 and it didnt run for half the day.

How welcome would that be! It was actually a pretty nice start to June. Hardly used any AC til June 20th or so but since then I haven't turned it off. Even with a few cool nights and pleasant days this week, im like, what's the point?

How about her?

Very refreshing morning. 56° at DTW, but 46° Ann Arbor. Now bracing for the corn sweat

It was a nice cool morning for this time of year. Detroit got down to 56F but Ann Arbor hit 46F. So Detroit was closer to a record low this morning (49F) than they will be to a record high Thursday (105F). Why do I bring that up? I saw a post last night (not here) that the "extreme high temps" Thursday have happened before but are more likely in todays climate. I mean, really? You want to talk about something, talk about the oppressive humidity, which would already have been bad enough but will get a boost in the midwest from peak "corn sweat" season. But a forecast high of 93F on July 24th is news? For comparison, Detroit has hit 95F or higher 315 times since records began in 1874. (yes, I know itll be worse to my south as it usually is, but again, Im concerned about my temps, not elsewhere lol).

I had 78.2". DTW in a mini "screwzone" with 71.7", if you can call the 4th snowiest winter a screwzone.

Posters in the southern Great Lakes will be throwing confetti, not rocks, at the mention of 2007-08. Banner snow season. Madison, WI- 101.4" Milwaukee, WI- 99.1" Ann Arbor, MI- 90.5" Flint, MI- 82.8" Saginaw, MI- 80.0" Cleveland, OH- 77.2" Detroit, MI- 71.7" Chicago, IL- 60.3" Toledo, OH- 58.1"

I was using it as an example. I didnt even look up the departure. Detroits winter was 27.5° which was -0.9° 1991-2020 departures. But again. This turned into more than my intended point. My entire point is that everyone in the U.S. did not "feel" a 34.07° winter avg temp. Some places were warmer and some colder relative to their own averages.

In the case of NYC it was a close representation. Perhaps its always a close rep, Im not sure. But youre missing my point. The average winter temp in International Falls last winter was 9.1°. You dont tell someone who lives there and says "it was pretty cold this winter!", "well you probably felt cold after last winter but the CONUS temp was 34.07° which is in the warmer half of the record". What the CONUS temp is is a reflection of thousands of different temps and multiple climate types. So what anyone "felt" or "experienced" last winter is based on what their weather was, not the average of the united states. BTW. Now I know what dense ranking is. Always thought it was ridiculous. DTX doesn't do that but if they did id still make my own charts without it. Just my opinion. I come up with 60th warmest in threaded record for NYC (make sure you average by days, not months, because Feb having less days screws the average). Bottom line, since 1870, NYC had 59 winters with a warmer mean temp than 2024-25, not 36 winters.

Thanks Don! Enjoy your vacation.

You misunderstood what I meant. I meant a national ranking/average has nothing to do with individual locations- each locations actual weather/ranking is their own and what they experienced/felt, not a rounded national number of all stations. The way you imply it its like saying someone in Miami must've frozen with their average winter temp at 34.07°. And international falls must've felt like perma spring at 34.07°. I dont know what dense ranking sorting is but NYC 34.8° ranks 60th warmest in their threaded record, not 37th.

Yes. And thats happened multiple times in recent years- below zero temps with strong winds.

Also, remember bluewave keeps talking about the nation as a while. Which is fine. But has nothing to do with temp departures at individual locations. The SW was much warmer than avg. It was very cut and dried here, Dec was warmer than avg, Jan & Feb were colder than avg. And this is true even when using the entire POR averages. Wasnt record cold by any means, but it was steady cold much of the time. The winter as a whole was very "mid" with no months anywhere near record warm or cold. DETROIT Dec- 33rd WARMEST of 152 Jan- 52nd COLDEST of 152 Feb- 69th COLDEST of 152 NEW YORK CITY Dec- 59th WARMEST of 156 Jan- 65th COLDEST of 156 Feb- 54th WARMEST of 156

The weather had been quite pleasant for the climatologically hottest time of the year, so its hard to believe what's lurking. Won't come close to being a heatwave, we will just get one day over 90, but it will be interesting to see just how the dews actually get. For one, we are the northern fringe, and for two models often overdue dews, but its going to feel terrible regardless.

Dec & Mar were definitely what put the orange/yellow on those maps.

Just adding to this, I found my paper where I had this data... In 145 years of record, using the POR-average of 41" of snow... There have been 10 winters on record that finished with above avg snowfall WITHOUT a 6"+ storm. The last time this happened was 1996-97. The snowiest of these was 55.1" in 1984-85 (biggest storm 5.5"). The lowest "biggest storm" of these was 1996-97 when the biggest storm was only 4.7" despite 43.1" total snow. There have been 22 winters that did feature a 6"+ storm but still finished with below avg snowfall. The last time this happened was 2006-07. The least snowy of these winters was 20.0" in 1982-83 (biggest storm 7.3") and the highest storm in this dataset was in 1932-33, when despite a 9.0" storm only 25.8" fell all winter. There has never been a winter with a storm over 9" that finished below avg in snowfall. Id be curious to know of all of NYC winters that finished above the longterm avg snowfall, what was the winter with the lowest "biggest storm of the season" where they could still finish above avg in total? Or how big if a storm theve gotten where winter still finishes below avg. These may be good @donsutherland1 questions.

This is one of the biggest differences between the Great Lakes and SNE/east coast. The reliance on a monster storm to make or break the season in terms of percent of average. Due to the more frequent snowfalls but less crippling storms, an entire seasons pattern is the bigger indicator here. Don't get me wrong, a 10"+ storm happens and you can all but lock in an above avg snow season, but you can also have a great season if its active even tho the biggest storm is like 6-8". In a place like NYC a monster storm (2016 for example) can make what wouldve been an otherwise crap season an above normal one with one swing of the bat.

I couldve used it. Summer rainfall is so much more sporadic than snow or for that matter rain in other seasons. Ive had 2.26" in july but nothing measurable in a week. The one day my area got a downpour that most of the rest of the area missed, however the 2 events that have made headlines for local flooding in parts of SE MI have left me high and dry.

I personally am a fan of using 30 year normals. Its been done that way for over a century, updated every 10 years. Obviously i am a huge fan of old climate data (when they used to write in the books with a pen, complete with a description of the day, that can't be beat). Heck i look at old data more than new data. But i think for normals the 30 year are a good marker. It accounts for recent decadal change of temp, precip, and snow. Its always fun to use the period of record too, it shows what longterm things have changed more than others, and certainly you can use moving averages or regression lines to see the ups and downs. Theres always some human error element but threaded records for stations that have moved slightly are still very accurate. But what i DONT like is starting something at a random picked year. I got so sick of seeing "since 1970" nonsense that I decided, hey I can pick a starting point too, lets go back exactly 100 years. Didn't go over well with a few lol. Bottom line for this area, 1970s-80s were full of abnormally cold winters, just as 1930s-50s were full of abnormally mild ones. Picking a starting point like 1930 or 1970 is going to automatically allow a predictable outcome. Either use POR or current 30 year normals. If anything, hating on 30 year normals is doing a disservice to the cc that some are so passionate about. We've seen multiple times when an expected warm period becomes colder than normal and then you get "well if it was the 1800s it wouldn't be colder than normal". OK. Well. I got 37.3" snow in 2022-23 which is below avg. If it was 1960 that was slightly above avg. That's irrelevant.