michsnowfreak

Ive noticed the silver maples started budding this week here, just the color (probably the light angle) of that one pic made it look different. I usually expect the silver maples to start doing this in March, one of the earliest ones, then after a while those buds rain down everywhere making a mess on the street, then it still seems like a while after that before leaves pop. Long process. Meanwhile, other species of maples you can barely see the buds (unless you look closely) then theyll suddenly pop those lime flowers then leaves (of course this hasnt happened yet lol).

Unless I am a reincarnated weather observer who worked at the Weather Bureau in the early 20th century, I cant say anything for certain (none of us can) about any individual snowfall of the past. But what I CAN say is that I know the practice of measuring every 6 hours has been in place at Detroit since about 1950, and I assume the same for many other first-order stations. I highly doubt that 6-hour intervals didnt start in NYC til the 1980s. Airports began this in 1950. Also, one thing that sets apart snowfall around here vs the east coast is that we are a climate of smaller, more frequent snowfalls. We do not get big 18-24" storms that can inflate (or deflate) our totals in a 2-day period. Lots of T-1, 1-2, 2-4, 3-6" type snowfalls, then the occasional 7-12" type storms. Also, the old days of the weather bureau had to manually monitor weather hourly, so while most NWS offices have corrected the lazy measurement practices that took many places when the FAA took over in the 1990s, Ive heard countless complaints about observers calling a snowfall a T or something because it melted before obs time. That would NEVER have happened in the old days. Another thing I look at when analyzing old weather data for here is the liquid equivalent and snow depth numbers. Is the depth making sense (ie: is there some settling, or the following days snow depth always just the snowfall added onto the previous depth). For the liquid equivalent, are they just applying a 10:1 ratio or are they actually measuring liquid and snowfall separately? In the old days, 1870s-1890s, they usually (but not always) applied a 10:1 ratio to every snowfall. So, does this mean they measured snow and just applied 10:1, or even worse that the melted liquid but didnt measure the snow? No one will ever really know. In the end, my analysis of snowfall data for Detroit, which dates to 1874 but the NWS begins in 1880 due to some M data in the 1870s...my assessment is that data is very accurate from around 1900 - present. Accurate does not mean there likely werent flaws, but looking at all factors (temps, precip, snowfall, snow depth, following days snow depth, etc) the data makes very good sense. Snowfall measurement practices from 1950-present have remained unchanged. Im not happy with some of the data from the mid-1990s to early 2000s (when the FAA took over and before snowpaid observers were hired), although none of it affected the record books in a huge way. And of course with many different obsevers, wind, etc, snow is always subject to error. Always has been, always will be. Snowfall from 1900-1949 seems quite accurate as well. Its is only the snowfall data from 1874-1899 that I look at with a grain of salt. You can still create a great mental picture of when the big storms were, when the snowy/cold winters were and when the warm, bare, "open winters" were, but the actual measurments likely had much more error than today.

Thanks. Ill bookmark it. I like looking at the Ann Arbor data because they have a consistent record to 1880 and are only about 20 miles due west of DTW, with their weather observing site not changing since 1880. The only problem with that, and im sure its a minor one, is they are a coop site, not first order, so there are bound to be a few errors here and there. You really did pick a doozy 3-year time period to live in the region lol. That cold was brutal and not normal. At Toledo, the winters of '76-77, '77-78, '78-79 rank as 1st, 2nd, and 8th coldest (since 1874). At Detroit they rank 3rd, 6th, & 12th coldest (since 1874), and at Ann Arbor 4th, 10th, & 13th coldest (since 1881). Depending on the airmass, there are many situations where NW OH can actually be colder (esp at night) than SE MI, with more urban sprawl in SE MI and more rural areas in NW OH. Id suspect there were multiple instances of that in the late 1970s. These colder nights offset the days when warm fronts dont get as far north as Detroit, and you have Toledo & Detroit winter temp averages nearly identical (DTW just a TAD colder), despite the fact that Detroit gets noticebly more snowfall and snowcover.

I too am a huge wx stat fan. Its easily my #1 favorite aspect of weather. I have so many different charts/graphs/papers in folders detailing Detroits weather history from the beginning of record to present, much of which never comes up to be posted here. I also browse other areas stats as well, whenever something comes up that makes me wonder "I wonder how this compares to past events there". My #2 aspect would be actually observering the weather. Been a wx observer since 2004 and measured snow since 1995. A distant #3 is the favorite of many, the actual tracking with this often headache-inducing model data

I've never heard of these. Is there a link to look at this data? Not sure about loess curves. It implies starting 1896 with a mean of what, 23°? The mean temp from 1874-1896 was 26.9°, when there was literally only one accurate wayne county station. Regardless I don't dispute that winters have warmed. They've also gotten snowier and wetter. This is why I like looking at things like the "winter severity index" which takes all things into account. I have studied local winters extensively and certainly concentrate most heavily on snow and snowcover. I can absolutely tell you that 1970s-80s and 2000s-10s winters I'll take in a heartbeat. Hard pass on 1930s-50s winters. In the 1870s-1920s era I'd take majority of them but there are a handful of UGLY ones thrown in I'd need to ditch lol.

1917-18 ranks as the 6th coldest, and 1918-19 ranks 13th warmest. Quite a rubber band effect. 1877-78 is widespread known as "year without a winter" in the upper midwest. We actually did ok with avg snowfall here (43.4") but as I've said before temps and snowfall here don't always go hand in hand. Locally the winter of 1881-82 was the worst for warmth + lack of snow. That remains Detroits warmest winter on record. The period of 1875-1882 was absolutely wild here with every other year alternating between bitterly cold winters and very warm winters. Not just talking either side of normal. Talking all winters that still currently reside in the top 20 coldest/warmest list.

The Chicago to Detroit corridor was very screwed in 1995-96. Would've been even worse if not for a march 20th snowstorm. Of those winters mentioned, the other ones were much better winters. 1995-96: 27.6" 2000-01: 39.0" 2002-03: 60.9" 2008-09: 65.7" 2010-11: 69.1" 2013-14: 94.9" 2014-15: 47.5"

A poster in the lakes forum has awesome monthly graphs ranking midwest/lakes climate back to 1807. In the Great Lakes/Midwest: the top 5 coldest winters 1.) 1903-04 2.) 1978-79 3.) 1884-85 4.) 2013-14 5.) 1874-75 Top 5 warmest winters 1.) 1877-78 2.) 2023-24 3.) 1931-32 4.) 2001-02 5.) 1997-98

1995-96 was a colder than avg winter in the midwest, but nothing noteworthy (at least here) outside of the early February cold snap, which still paled in comparisons to multiple cold snaps since then. That cold snap was noteworthy in chicago and Detroit in that it came with bare ground. One of my least favorite winters here in terms of missing all the action. Cold and dry ruled, and Detroit has easily never come as close to getting screwed in the 29 years since. 1995-96 ranks as detroits 44th coldest (of 151 years) winter on record. Since then, the following winters have been colder: 2000-01 2002-03 2008-09 2010-11 2013-14 2014-15

But what I'm saying is noting how cold or warm the conus is is totally irrelevant to how someone perceived their winter any individual location. It goes without saying that how cold anyone felt their winter was at their location is best gauged by how it compares to their climate record and their recent winters, not the CONUS. A cold winter by new york city 1951-80 standards would still be a mild winter in Detroit by 1991-20 standards. To say nothing of the recent cold winters in already cold upper midwest/plains and the warmth in already warm snowless places like Florida and Arizona.

Never knew that. Seems odd to me. That's a colder and less snowy climate for me then todays 1991-2020.

Most climate site deals with moves over the course of the climate period. Just one of those things in the climate record. Roads were dirt in the 1870s. DTW airport had much better radiational cooling in the 1960s-80s before the airport expanded to its current status. You just have to deal with the changes as part of the climate record, rather than pick and choose the ones we like and don't like.

Just to add, when you say "it feels colder because..." and then talk about CONUS ranks that cancels each other out. An individual experiences winter at their location only, not the entire CONUS. If someone experienced a cold winter in Montana they couldn't care less it was a warm winter in Arizona, and vice versa.

Wow. How close are you to RFD? I see RFD is only at 13.0" so I assume this is biggest event of the season?

The NWS/Weather Bureau has been using 30 year averages since the 1930s, nearly 100 years. It's a way to capture recent trends in weather patterns for any one area. It doesn't erase the past data, but it's updated every 10 years to reflect those trends. So I see no reason why some are against using the current normals. I mean, if you want to use entire period of record, that's cool too. But let's not use the 30 year normals until the unusually cold 1960s and 1970s are erased then suddenly stop so we don't captured the mild winters of the mid 20th century . For Detroit, this winter of 2024-25 was: -0.9° using 1991-2020 avg -0.2° using 1981-2010 avg +0.7° using 1971-2000 avg +1.8° using 1961-1990 avg +1.1° using 1951-1980 avg +0.3° using 1941-1970 avg -0.4° using 1931-1960 avg -0.1° using 1921-1950 avg +0.7° using 1911-1940 avg +1.7° using 1901-1930 avg +0.5° using POR 1874-2025 avg

Meh that one's not a great match either. Had a cold Fall and a torch January. Looking into other nina winters, i saw dome similarities to maybe a hybrid 1970-71/1971-72. But of course even then it's just similarities.

It's wild to even think there were similarities between the winter of 2013-14 & 2024-25. I understand it's never a 1:1 comparison but the two were not even close. The winter of 2013-14 was the most severe winter on record for Detroit, the snowiest (94.9"), by far the longest lasting deep snowpack, and the 8th coldest DJF and 4th coldest Nov-Mar on record. Not only was the cold constant from Nov-Apr, but it was EXTREMELY active, with a constant parade of storms. Meanwhile 2024-25 was mild Nov-Dec, cold Jan-Feb, and mild Mar. Snowfall sits at a below avg 26.9" to date and though we did have a snowcovered Jan/Feb, due to more bare than avg in Dec, we are sitting near normal for snowcover days to date. Again, I understand the comparisons will never be 1:1, but if similar patterns can yield such wildly different outcomes, then no matter how slam dunk a pattern may be, anyone in a northern climate should take everything with an extreme grain of salt. Ie: a crap winter won't necessarily yield a crap one this time, nor will a good winter pattern yield a good one.

Redwood Falls, MN 4pm yesterday: 75° 9am today: 25°, moderate snow & wind

Just noticed there was a 2025-26 thread. Looking forward to some good discussion as the year rolls along.

I know. Fizz and I were referring to the direction the posts in this thread have gone lol.

Yeah it definitely turned into another cc thread lol. No reason to shut it down, its already getting much fewer posts as winter nears its end. But definitely will want a 2025-26 thread to start in a few months. I do think each winter should have its own thread.

Wow nothing here. What kind of tree is that?

Small area of western MN has a blizzard warning, only says 2-5" of snow (wind the issue) but point for today is 76F.

Classic spring stuff. Late march and April snowstorms are lots of fun and for the Debbie downers it should be a given that they do not last long.

Im not singling out any one person. And I agree that is a good statement: "everything that exists..is happening in a realm of cc". But IMO some take everything an extra step or really grasp at straws. I have no doubt that if it was a cold, snowy winter we would hear a number of reasons why this was cc (after all, we heard that a short decade ago lol). I always feel I need to reiterate (tho I shouldnt have to), i have no problem discussing cc because where I live the true effects are relatively minimal. I get 4 distinct seasons, some winters are harsher than others and it can still snow from Oct-May. I suspect many new englanders feel the same. The best stretch of winters my areas have seen in recorded history were well in the cc era, and the shittiest stretch well before that era. Weather always tended to go in cycles well before cc altered patterns. So its just another piece to the puzzle and in just 4-5 months people will already begin trying to piece together guesses for winter 2025-26. As for your analogy...It is true that a person submerged under water cannot claim a moment of dryness. But how weird would a report of this person submerged be if it completely focused around how they got under water rather than the fact they were under water.