michsnowfreak

Interesting. I would not say "you know what youre getting" about Ninas here. I wonder if @40/70 Benchmark would agree for your area? Many Ninas here are front loaded, some backloaded, but usually theres a notably harsh portion of the winter and a notably meh portion (not always - see 2007-08 or 2010-11, wall to wall fun). I specifically remember that the 2000-01 winter was all midwest Nov/Dec then all northeast Jan-Mar, though I cant recall if that was an exception or the rule. Im really anxious to see if we can get one of those good, snowy Decembers because thats what we are due most for (and its also one of the snowiest months in Nina winters here).

I would take my chance with ANY Nina here, but particularly 1st year Ninas. Whats funny is that 1995-96 was a really crappy winter here in that it was very cold and dry. We missed snow to the N, S, E, & W. A 6" snowstorm on the 1st day of spring 1996 "rescued" the season, DTW finishing at 27.6". Its rare that NYC beats DTW in seasonal snow, and that year they annihalted us with 75.6". It was a great year for lake ice and what not, but one of the shittier Nina snow seasons. But 2010-11? Now you are talking (69.1" at DTW, 61.9" NYC). As long as you give us a storm track, mild and even warm winters can do fine with snowfall (but of course the warmer it is, the worse snowcover is), so I guess in hindsight, 1995-96 was the MUCH rarer opposite problem- plenty of cold, missing all the storms (except clippers), no help from the frozen lakes.

Flurries have filled the air almost nonstop yesterday and today but just a trace here. Missed some of the heavier squalls that coated the ground elsewhere.

You are definitely due! Hopefully next winter.

Cute! Oh trust me, under no circumstances would I ever root for futility lol. I went sledding in Jan...always a kid in winter!

While I'm sure they won't get that much, there's definitely a significant signal for snow in the northern part of the country the last half of March. This is why I always say to those talking futility in January or even earlier that the snow season has so long to go, you really have to have EVERYTHING go wrong to get that. I can't think of a more deserving season than this one for the Northwoods, but mother nature may have other plans. Duluth still in the running, but Minneapolis screwed that up by being in the jackpot of that February snowfall. Here in Detroit, I cannot remember a more benign winter outside of one month, but since that 1 month produced 17 inches of snow, again, top 10 futility off the table. Toledo is surprisingly still in the running for their 2nd least snowy winter.

No better time to start than a 1st year Nina. I know each ENSO strength has different effects between the Great Lakes & east coast, but the number of good Nina Decembers here is intriguing to me. Everything snaps at some point. We were having a historic run of snowy Februarys, then bam, 2 crap ones in a row. Likewise, a run of shitty Decembers can turn around at any point.

So 6 confirmed dead in total? All at the OH trailer park? Those videos were scary.

Exactly. Although it was also a 3rd year Nina. Not sure how you did up there, but a snowy March definitely brought the season total into respectability range in the metro area. This winter of 2023-24 was in a league of its own that fortunately we rarely see.

Adjusting +2 to +4 for "todays climate"? I would not consider the fact that 5 of the past 9 winters have been very mild up here enough to double a departure on a set of 4 analogs which include the cold winter of 2008-09, and the mild winter of 1998-98, especially since winters of the mid-late 1990s were far milder here than winters of the 2000s to mid-2010s. Yes, we have certainly made a turnaround with that strong Nino in 2015-16, but each winter has their own character. Historically the roller coaster pattern of a La Nina, while frustrating to us snowcover lovers, is what can aid in a banner snow season in MI (see 1998-98, 2007-08).

The more important takeaway for our region is in Ninas, the good snow seasons outnumber the bad handily.

Memories have frequently been popping up on Facebook of stories on the record snow, cold and ice 10 years ago. What about insane difference (2013-14 vs 2023-24).

For a visual aid, see above. It's like talking to a brick wall. Mean temperature vs max temps are two different things. It would be like comparing six 2" snowfalls to one 12" snowstorm. Last summer the hottest temperature at DTW was 90°. To be honest I would prefer a hotter dry summer over a warm humid one. Considering last year was overall a very pleasant summer in an era of hot summers, and we have an El Nino transitioning to La Nina, I definitely am expecting a hot summer this year. But it would be interesting if we could actually get heat waves and some cool shots instead of just steady warm and humid.

A gazillion times is an understatement. Those who have a one-track agenda when it comes to weather will always simply use whatever works best for them at that specific moment (mean temp, most/least hot maxes, most/least cold mins, station/instrument placement, snow depth vs snowfall, snowfall was less at a station 100 miles away, "since 1970...", etc etc...or if ALL else fails, "I dont trust that data for X reason"). Consistency is never a strong suit . The same passion that is used to reiterate that a snowy season in a milder winter was STILL a milder winter is completely MIA when it comes to acknowledging a deadly heatwave during a dustbowl year that wasnt the hottest summer on record. Heatwaves of the 1930s-50s have yet to be matched locally. Very interesting era in weather (puny, mild, low snow winters and scorching heatwaves, also a lot of tornadoes). Those summers, while still high on the list of hottness, often had a few good cool downs and more importantly cool nights. Very interesting that we have no problem getting a roller coaster in temps during Winter, Fall, & Spring but summers anymore are full of stagnant days, humid nights, and warm humid days lacking extreme heat. As summer is also the season where mean temp is increasing the most, I plan to do some closer looking into those warm summer nights this year. AVERAGE ANNUAL 90F+ DAYS PER DECADE AT DETROIT 1880s- 5 1890s- 9 1900s- 6 1910s- 11 1920s- 9 1930s- 17 1940s- 16 1950s- 15 1960s- 11 1970s- 12 1980s- 13 1990s- 12 2000s- 10 2010s- 16 2020s- 12 (only 2020-23) Heres an interesting stat - Average annual max temp by decade 1880s- 93 1890s- 95 1900s- 93 1910s- 96 1920s- 95 1930s- 99 1940s- 98 1950s- 97 1960s- 95 1970s- 96 1980s- 95 1990s- 96 2000s- 94 2010s- 96 2020s- 93 (only 2020-23)

The cold bias was worse this winter than normal. And last summer the extended had a heat bias. And we all know about the precip "clown maps". Always good to repeatedly remind yourself the LR is a guide, NOT a forecast.

I would take any of those 3 in a heartbeat (73-74, 83-84, 10-11).

I don't remember March 12 in 2012, But I do remember the insane exploding of foliage by March 17-20, which almost certainly will remain king over this year, and any other year. Other very early green ups in my memory are 1998 and 2010. Looking at historically early documented greenups, 1945 and 1946 had extremely early greenups and 1945s fruit crop was essentially ruined. One early greenup that flies under the radar often is 1977. After a cold early Fall and brutally cold winter, spring sprung early with warmth and stuff leafed out much earlier than normal. Im curious what happened during the spring of 1932. There was a lot of documentation of extraordinary winter blooming and blossoming of trees and flowers, which was then followed by a cold spring.

Agree 100%. We all know the cold has failed this winter, and as you get to late March average has warmed significantly, so no one is talking mid winter cold for days. But its head-scratching to see how anyone can say the extended "looks mild/warm".

Using 1970s winters as a baseline has been popular for years and will continue to be. When you use what is for most the harshest decade of winters on record as a baseline for "average", make increases in temps and (for some) decreases in snow more eye popping. The ever-popular "since 1970" will still be popular, but now that we have hit a nice round number of 50 years since 1974-75, that too should increase in popularity (especially we can add the last 2 very mild winters, and lop off the milder, lower snow seasons of '71-73). Lets face it, including the many mild and terrible snow seasons of the 1930s-50s would be a real buzzkill, so just start in the 1970s! I verified the data for Detroit. Whats interesting is Mar snowfall did decrease from 7.4" to 5.5" (a ~25% decrease) but Feb snow INCREASED from 6.7" to 16.2" (a ~140% increase ). December saw a sharp decrease. Whats funny though is the annual snowfall remained the same to the tenth of an inch (44.9" to 44.9"). The previous 50 years (1924-1973) saw annual snowfall DECREASE by 6.6" & avg winter temps rise 1.4F. Its all about how you make the graph work for you. ~If I look at the change in the last 50 years of Detroit winters, they have warmed 4.9F and annual snowfall has remained exactly the same (heavier mid-winter and lighter at the beginning and ends of the season). ~However, if I look at the change the last 100 years, the winters have warmed just 1.2F and annual snowfall has increased a whopping 13.3". It goes without saying that those puny mid-20th century winters hurt. ~If I look at the entire period of record, 150 years, Detroit winters have warmed 2.0F & annual snowfall has increased 0.6".

Dusting of snow this morning. 0.1" here and 0.3" DTW, but areas between Flint and the thumb got up to 2". On this date last year, a scenic 5.2" snow fell, just 1 week after the 6.2" thundersnow storm.

Obviously 5 of the last 9 winters have been very mild, ever since the strong 2015-16 nino, and they have made their way into the top 10. After 11th warmest, the next 10 warm winters are all old (1870s-1950s plus 1 in 1980s). With the always cyclical nature of weather patterns, enso, cc, there are so many factors at play. I too agree that temps & snow are two different things. But with the type of winter climate we have, I don't think we will ever have to worry about struggling with precip type during "every storm". Even during the warmest winters you get cold storms. IMO the number of snowcover days would be the far bigger metric to watch to look for any notable decline. At Detroit, the "barest" decade was the 1990s, then the 1930s, when looking at annual avg of 1"+ snowcover days. 1910s- 58 days 1920s- 52 days 1930s- 42 days 1940s- 49 days 1950s- 47 days 1960s- 56 days 1970s- 57 days 1980s- 47 days 1990s- 37 days 2000s- 52 days 2010s- 53 days We have 5 to 6 more winters to go before the 2020s are complete. That will be a good assessment time, because it really averages out all the ups and downs of the decade. This wild notion that some have that the weather used to be consistent always blows me away because the weather has never been consistent here. I find that a slight bit of Winter warming is more of a help than a hindrance here snow wise. What I want to avoid is many winters like this disaster we just went through.

Everyone better hope for widespread clear skies on April 8th.

Ended up with 0.71" here. A long drawn out light rain.

Minneapolis has only had two years on record where less than an inch of precip had fallen thru March. 1958 (strong El Nino) and 1912 (weak el nino). 2024 (strong el nino) could be the 3rd.

Im fine with anything other than a torch. No shame in liking the cold when theres others who root for early warmth that just destroys fruit crops. The one thing about weather that IS constant though, is it does what it wants, not what we want lol.