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Everything posted by michsnowfreak
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2025-2026 ENSO
michsnowfreak replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Heres a good example.... Last winter, 2024-25, Detroit & Boston, two cities with similar snowfall averages (but vastly different climos) saw similarly below avg snowfall. In Detroit at least, I can confirm the winter was colder & drier than anticipated. Fortunately the snowcover held up well. Detroit saw 28.7" & Boston 28.1". From Nov-Apr, a trace or more of snow fell on 80 days at Detroit...and 29 days at Boston. Mood flakes in the Great Lakes are always a nice touch, but a synoptic pattern is still important for those outside the belts. Now, in the true snow belts of upper MI, where few people actually live, being a snowfall observer would honestly be a full time job in winter. You can get measurable snow every day for months on end. -
2025-2026 ENSO
michsnowfreak replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Even though that is the far NW tip of upper Michigan, it is still extremely rare to see snowflakes on September 4th. Its almost funny...thats literally a 4-month window between the end of one season and the start of the next lol. In winter though, unless you live in the Great Lakes you wont understand how common it is to see flakes flying constantly. Even in SE MI outside the snowbelt, Im like an owl looking outside for those first flakes in Oct or Nov, but by mid-winter its almost like youre immune to the harmless flurries or light snow showers falling all the time. The key to a great winter Great Lakes-wide is an excellent LES AND excellent synoptic pattern. -
Wet snowflakes seen in the keewenaw peninsula today.
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Between the dry August and the recent stretch of cool nights, the color is not wasting time this year.
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2025-2026 ENSO
michsnowfreak replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Actually, a snowy Thanksgiving to New Years would be a classic weak Nina in the Great Lakes (not sure about the east coast). The issue in recent years has been Ninas have had a tendency to flip flop Dec & Feb. -
This is an interesting random fact. Assuming we dont hit 90F this September, it will be the 7th consecutive September without hitting 90F at Detroit. That has never happened before in the climate record (the previous longest was 6 consecutive years, 1875-1880). The last time DTW hit 90 in Sept was Sept 5, 2018.
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2025-2026 ENSO
michsnowfreak replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
That x post was kind of out of nowhere and completely unrelated to the thread. I dont even know how youd find that without searching (that greta haircut though ). Its certainly true that social media is FULL of misinformation, but there is just as much warm biased bad info as there is cold biased bad info. Its like, say your baseball team won 4-3 last night, but someone posts online that they won 17-1. Yes, they won, but completely fabricating the score to make a point is just as wrong as saying they lost. -
2025-2026 ENSO
michsnowfreak replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Upon further analysis - apparently it wasnt as extreme as I thought. The nighttime lows really did the lifting from late June thru July, but not the entire summer. June High/Low: +2.3F / +2.1F July High/Low: +1.2F / +2.6F August High/Low: -0.9F / -1.4F December High/Low: +1.8F / +2.2F January High/Low: -2.4F / -3.0F February High/Low: -2.4F / -1.4F -
2025-2026 ENSO
michsnowfreak replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Very interesting...here its BY FAR most noticeable in summer. Winter mins still tank on clear nights. The only thing that holds them up is an overcast Great Lakes night, often accompanied by snow showers, while west of Lake MI will be clear and cold. Theres no comparison between summer and winter mins. -
2025-2026 ENSO
michsnowfreak replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
My friend in Long Island said it was the most comfortable August he could remember. Here, the last week of August saw the traditional cold spots of SE MI dip into the upper 30s to low 40s. I dont care that they are the usual cold spots...its very impressive to have that on multiple nights in August. This is August 30th: -
2025-2026 ENSO
michsnowfreak replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Detroit tied with 2 other years for 7th most days with mins of 70°+ (24) but tied with 10 other years for 44th most days of 90°+ (14). You can see it was the nights that did the lifting. -
2025-2026 ENSO
michsnowfreak replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Im seeing double -
Agree. Summers unbearable humidity was basically condensed into a 2 month stretch from approximately June 20 - August 20 or so. With a break in early August. It was way more muggy nights than hot days. There were 14 days of 90+ at DTW, which is 1 more than normal, and a max of 95.
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2025-2026 ENSO
michsnowfreak replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
We didnt see extreme high temps here, but the warm muggy nights were placing the summer higher into the hottest summers list, but the last week of August was the 7th coldest on record for Detroit, plummeting the summer out of the top 20 hottest. -
2025-2026 ENSO
michsnowfreak replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Ive been saying since April 2014, we will never see another 2013-14 again in our lifetimes, referring to sensible weather. It wasnt just the snowiest winter on record. The combo of snow + cold + snow depth + wind had never been seen in the record era, and not even close. -
Last week of August was 7th coldest on record at Detroit which plummeted the hot summer ranking out of the top 20.
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Not only have there been numerous days in the 40s in most areas but there have also been several in the upper 30s in the traditional cold spots of SE MI. Very impressive for August. This mornings low of 50 was a bit suspicious at DTW. It is the 4th low of 50 this week but today was the coldest morning. Every other nearby station was well in the 40s, including thermometers near the airport. I haven't noticed any discrepancies in DTW temps lately, so hopefully its just an unfortunate one off. Other lows this morning included 44 at Ypsilanti (right outside DTW), 43 in Monroe, 39 in White Lake and 38 in Ann Arbor. Even Detroit City was 47 for their coldest Aug temp since 1986 (you know the DTW number is suspicious when nearby YIP is 6° colder and even DET is 3° colder).
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2025-2026 ENSO
michsnowfreak replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Its already been dry here in August. But honestly I dont care. As long as it gets more active in winter im fine. Definitely want to avoid any late heat. I am amazed how the color is picking up so early. The last week, Detroit has now had a low of 58, 55, 50, 50, 53, 50 with most suburbs in the 40s multiple times including several around 40 in the traditional cold spots. The forecast low tonight is 48 Detroit with 40s everywhere else, then some 50s, and the more 40s later in the week. With low humidity, sunny days, and 2+ consecutive weeks of cooler than normal nights, the color will continue to expand. -
2025-2026 ENSO
michsnowfreak replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I remember. Don't think we see that kind of heat later in September this year though. -
2025-2026 ENSO
michsnowfreak replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I also have a feeling the trees are really going to start taking off with these cool nights. Its not at all uncommon to see some stressed color by now, but I've been noticing many trees starting to get some color the last few days. -
We had a 100% chance of rain today and I didnt see a drop
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After a warm, humid summer where the persistant warm, humid nights, not extreme hot days, were what made their mark....We are now in a stretch of a what will be about 10 days straight of unseasonably cool nights, several of them flirting in record low territory, so to say that summers back is broken is an understatement. The trees are starting to get some color as well.
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2025-2026 ENSO
michsnowfreak replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
We had a warm, humid summer here, and while once again, extreme temps were not a thing (14 days of 90F+, which is only 1 day more than normal, and only 4 of these days were 93+) it was the warm humid nights that made their mark. Yet now, we are in a stretch of a what will be about 10 days straight of unseasonably cool nights, several of them flirting in record low territory, so to say that summers back is broken is an understatement. The trees are starting to get some color as well. -
2025-2026 ENSO
michsnowfreak replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I literally say the same thing every time we are in a La Nina or La Nina type state. Historically December has been the prize month of winter in a La Nina, but in recent years we have had so much trouble getting a colder than normal December (yet we have had no trouble getting a cold Nov, Jan, or Feb). Even last year, a colder than normal winter, but by far the mildest month was December. Im very interested to see if we get some real fun in December this year. Of course, it could cost us some fun in Feb, but we are definitely due. -
Absolutely, anything can be skewed whichever way someone wants it these days. Also, multiple record lows were set the last few days, some very old records. Springfield, IL set a record low of 44F, breaking a 140-year record by 4F. Flint missed by 1F, Detroit missed by 3F, but Toledo set a record low this morning of 48F. We just arent having someone post an itemized list as they do when theres any kind of record highs.