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Everything posted by michsnowfreak
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Sunny cold day today. Went to the park and took a pic of a field because i thought this was a cool winter/spring contrast pic.
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Some flurries overnight. Few areas north of Detroit got a dusting. 24° this morning as the roller coaster temps continue.
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2026-2027 El Nino
michsnowfreak replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Neither am I. And after 2 cold winters (even though the cold surely would've been colder if this was 15+ years ago) its bound to be at a fever pitch. -
2026-2027 El Nino
michsnowfreak replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
This wasn't a typical la nina at all, but when looking at the season as a whole, it definitely was front-mid loaded here. It was great to have plenty of snow/snowcover right at kickoff during the coldest, darkest days. But I could've used one more snowstorm in late Feb/Mar, sun angle be damned. -
2026-2027 El Nino
michsnowfreak replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Going to be interesting to see how the cansips evolves this summer. It had the cold winter lakes/east look last summer and fall while the other seasonals were mild. Its showing another cold winter in those same areas for 2026-27. -
2026-2027 El Nino
michsnowfreak replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The ridge west, trough east alignment seems to be almost stuck. Not literally, of course it moves, but it has been dominant lately so no need to think it cant continue next winter. It was dominant for almost a decade it seemed if we look back just 11-12 years or so. And of course it goes without saying that the blazing SW is doing the heavy lifting for ranking conus winter warmth. Chuck and I have discussed, I personally dont worry about "cold" when it comes to snow. Its more about storm tracks. You can absolutely apply that to the Great Lakes and New England. Further south, of course its different. We have now had 2 cold winters in a row. With an El Nino coming Id be very surprised to see a 3rd cold winter in a row locally. The last 2 winters here have been cold and snowcovered with powder which is my favorite, but not gonna lie, with the biggest storm this winter 6.2" and biggest last winter 4.6", a milder winter would likely send more dynamic winter storms into this area. Historically its a mix, but for the last 3 decades, milder winters have produced some real dynamic snowstorms. -
2026-2027 El Nino
michsnowfreak replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
It was a great winter here as well. It was like the pre party to a fantastic 2005-2015. It was cold and dry west of the lakes though. -
2026-2027 El Nino
michsnowfreak replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
2002-03 like would definitely be an interesting outcome! -
Idk. No snowflakes in April is rare. But meaningful snow, thats another story.
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Wintry day with snow squalls. Just a T for me but 0.3" at DTW. Season totals 40.1" my backyard, 39.4" DTW. Some squalls had isolated whiteouts and the sky often resembled thunderstorm incoming.
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2026-2027 El Nino
michsnowfreak replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Yeah. I mean you cant take winter forecasts with more than a grain of salt in Fall, much less spring. I was just pointing out sometimes colors look worse than they are. Milder winters mean nothing in terms of total snowfall here (as long as we avoid torch). Its about storm track or lack thereof. After two cold winters in a row with good snowcover but no impressive storms locally (largest was a surprise 6.2") my early gut instinct is that next winter sees less deep winter but a bigger storm, likely the biggest in 5 years or so. -
Yesterday at DTW ended up hi/low 43/34 and today 55/35 with colder weather the next two days. Backdoor front ftw.
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2025-2026 ENSO
michsnowfreak replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Today is wild here in eastern MI. Cloudy and 35° at 1245pm with an inferno all around. -
2026-2027 El Nino
michsnowfreak replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Not to mention the colors make it look so extreme. +0.8°-1.0° at Detroit and NYC. -
2026-2027 El Nino
michsnowfreak replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
They're just using the standard el nino climo like always lol -
DTW is overcast and 35° at noon. What a way to run a nationwide torch day
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Not expected to get out of the 40s here tmrw.
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Wow. How much left?
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2026-2027 El Nino
michsnowfreak replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
That's a good catch. But the chart is saw has 1986-87 listed as moderate and 1987-88 as strong. -
2026-2027 El Nino
michsnowfreak replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
A strong Nino 3 years after a strong Nino? Ill believe it when I see it. -
2025-2026 ENSO
michsnowfreak replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Id say D at best lol. They use blue so sparingly, imagine being in South Dakota thinking, wow if they use blue its gonna be COLD. -
2025-2026 ENSO
michsnowfreak replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
+4-5 is a reasonable guess. It will be the first warmer than avg month since October. Again, I was strictly talking about March 21 and beyond. Some insisted the western inferno would envelope the entire conus post march 21, and that will clearly not be the case. Rather, it looks like a mix of some warmer than avg days and some colder than avg days. -
2025-2026 ENSO
michsnowfreak replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
For western Midwest was warmer than normal, but torch was the Plains and West. -
2025-2026 ENSO
michsnowfreak replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Good for the globe! Its been mentioned many, many times. It doesn't change the fact that it was a colder than average winter in the Great Lakes and northeast, or that the cold in that part of the globe often refused to budge. I understand that getting a cold winter where 90% of this forum resides, despite more widespread world warmth, does not sit well with some. But it doesnt mean it didnt happen or cant be discussed. -
2025-2026 ENSO
michsnowfreak replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Im referring specifically to several posts that repeatedly referenced that following this cold shot, the western torch would envelop the entire conus and clearly that is not the case. Just had our coldest st paddys day in 59 years. And after milder days this weekend, there are several more cold shots en route for the lakes and northeast while the southwest continues to burn. Torch is subjective i guess. The word torch was never used til 2012. Now anything a few degrees above normal is a torch to some.
