michsnowfreak

Yeah that makes sense. Not terribly different from my avg temps. But yet another example of how snowfall is localized and very subject to other things than just the avg temp. I wonder what a REASONABLE line or latitude is to draw a line and assume below that line is where you really need seasonable to colder than avg temps to get snow. Based on a quick calculation, I get your DJF avg high/low as 38/20. Mine is 34/21.

This is interesting wrt snow because you are at a safe enough latitude that mild winters can easily be snowier than avg. What first order station are you closest to for temps, ORH? In terms of "being due". For here, i would roughly consider the era of above avg snow dominance to be from 2002-2015 and below avg snow dominance 2016-present, however the above was much more above than the below has been below.

You're jumping the gun though. I know you said "if". But dry mild Falls followed by wet winters is a very common theme for ninas in the midwest/Great Lakes.

Two things to comment on this. #1) This is a good example of why I always say...pattern is more concerning than temps for here in terms of snowfall. Despite the bright orange color, the snowfall in those 3 Januaries at Detroit was: 1950- 9.5", 2017- 11.8", 2023- 11.7". The longterm POR avg for Jan snow is 11". #2) it would not be a surprise to me whatsoever to see a very nice winter stretch as well as a shitty stretch....its very common in Nina winters. Always has been and to coin a favorite term on here, in "today's climate", you can even add an extra boost to that volatility. But you should know that anything from that poster is nothing but troll bait, and certainly not a legitimate thought/forecast for the coming winter.

Its not sugar. But im not sure which kind ot is.

They did. It was so small and isolated but trained. It probably affected 25% of Detroit city and nowhere else.

I imagine color is ramping up bigtime in NNE with the drought. Our average peak in SE MI is mid-late October, but color began in late August as the cool nights arrived and even with the pattern shift to warmer, color continues to expand. The air smells like fall with all the drying leaves, even in the warm sun, and I suspect the dry conditions have to be playing a part. Kind of hard to tell in this picture from earlier, but the gold of the grass is only a few shades lighter than the gold on the trees.

Dry. Warm. Dry. Sunny. Dry. Colors continue to pick up steam despite the warmer weather. Did I mention dry?

Exactly. I enjoy that we have people from all different areas posting. And i would expect that everyone is most concerned about their own area. But have to be careful to apply localized logic in a broadbrush sense. As I've said many times, theres no question that snow lovers in the Great Lakes would prefer a la nina any day over el nino. Of course ENSO itself is only one piece of the puzzle, but theres enough history to see what is the better enso state for the winter enthusiast in MI. Of course it will still snow here multiple times in an El Nino...but it will be a much quieter winter than a Nina. The full winter as a whole seems to hold more importance for the midwest, Lakes, and new England in terms of how we view it, whereas the coastal areas into the mid Atlantic are all about what pattern can give them a monster storm.

Both 1949-50 & 2022-23 were similar here in that they were overall very mild winters but with multiple winter storms. There was certainly some excitement but winter did not sustain itself.

Sounds good to me. A winter closer to 20th coldest instead of top 5 and with snowfall well over 100". Book it!

Interesting. Sept 1881 is the hottest on record at Detroit. Heavy rain did fall on 9/16, 1.38", with a high of 72F.

It is very dry and dusty here in southern MI. I took the day off and went apple picking with a friend. Apple crop is plentiful but not sure about corn here. I do know that color is well ahead of schedule.

Dry, sunny, and dusty...with early color continuing.

Why use JFK? They aren't a first order station, are they? I always assumed NYC was the main one. Plus, JFKs numbers seem way out of sync with the rest of your area last winter. NYC was -2.5° in Jan and -0.9° in Feb and LGA was -2.0° in Jan and -0.6° in Feb.

Agree 100%. I have come across quite a few hot summers and mild, snowless winters from the 1800s-1860s, but with lack of official records, they are never looked at beyond what minimal info there is.

Everytime you guys bring up 95-96 I just cringe. I mean its 30 years ago and I was 12...and there have been many amazing winters since...but 95-96, just gross lol (except for the Mar 20 storm).

Interesting how apparently 1828 was a super hot summer.

Yeah for you guys 2014-15 was the winner. It was a severe winter here for sure, bitterly cold and white, but outside of one huge snowstorm Feb 1st, it was a much, MUCH quieter winter than 2013-14.

The entire pattern was definitely EVERYTHING going right. And everything busted in our favor. In 150 years of data, 2013-14 ranks for Detroit: Total Snowfall- #1 1"+ Snowcover Days - #1 6"+ Snowcover Days - #1 12"+ Snowcover Days - #1 Cold- DJF #8, NDJFM- #4 And constant wind for drifting snow. Rural open areas in Monroe County, MI (between Detroit & Toledo) had snow completely bury some barns.

It was the 6th coldest Aug 25-Sept 7 period at Detroit, but coldest since 1935. Color is coming on earlier than normal as well.

I understand that, I just meant that if a pattern in place is going to produce a lot of cold and snow, nothings going to stop it.

I dont think we'll ever see another 2013-14 here and I've said that many times. However, if everything aligned pattern wise for a similar winter (again, highly unlikely), I do not buy for one minute the bogus "new climate weather adjustment" bs. The winter of 2013-14 was decades into the mainstream acknowledgment of "global warming" and was the most severe winter this area had recorded. If you get a favorable pattern where everything aligns for any given region, you absolutely can get a severe winter and cc is going to do nothing to stop it.

Sunny, dry, and early color continues.

The 2 week period of Aug 25 - Sept 7 (last week of Aug + first week of Sept) was 6th coldest on record for Detroit and coldest since 1935. There is also way more color than usual for early September. Do I really feel there is any correlation to winter? No. But since every warm record is brought up by some as meaning something for winter, figured it was worth a mention .