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michsnowfreak

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  1. michsnowfreak
    Oh I do too. I take everything with a grain of salt at this stage. I have also said several times that I expect '26-27 winter to be milder here than the past 2. But these automatic assumptions of some torch winter and a super nino- not buying it at this stage.
  2. michsnowfreak
    So the model is simultaneously correct in jumping to a stronger Nino, but INCORRECT in staying consistent with a cold winter look in the Great Lakes, similiar to the last 2 winters. Got it.
  3. michsnowfreak
    I disagree. While the mean of a strong Nino is a milder than avg winter in the north, keep in mind theres tons of hugging the warmest and/or least wintry Ninos on record in here by some. Thats not how weather always works. The strong El Nino of 1911-12 was a brutally cold winter, one of the coldest on record. It definitely didnt fit the mold of a typical strong Nino. And yes, even back then (before we hear about a different climate) strong Ninos generally produced mild winters, including 1877-78 (year without a winter in the upper midwest) and 1918-19 (a winter far less snowy than any ive ever experience). Using the more common post-1950 list. Moderate are a mixed bag- several cold winters in there. And several of the strong Ninos averaged on the average to cool side of average here.
  4. michsnowfreak
    January 2024 actually was a decent winter month here. It was shockingly (for a strong nino) the wettest january on record at Detroit. Which jives with what you mentioned about strong ninos being wetter. There was a big cold snap mid month and the Plains actually finished the month colder than avg. It was the warm and very low snow December and February that made it such a bummer. This is a pic from Jan 2024. Much of the month resembled what winter in MI should. The problem is Dec and Feb didnt.
  5. michsnowfreak
    Thats the way to run a strong nino. Cansips has been hellbent on a 3rd straight cold winter in the Great Lakes.
  6. michsnowfreak
    100%. Some are relying/hoping too much for the warmest possible scenario and im just not buying it at this time.
  7. michsnowfreak
    Yeah shutout may not be the best choice of words, I took it literally lol. 2015-16 was a better snow season here than 1997-98 or 2023-24.
  8. michsnowfreak
    Hmm while im not as familiar with east coast climate, that seems pretty much impossible to get a total shutout in new England. Shitty compard to climo, yes, but shutout or even close, never. Im in SE Michigan, i turn 43 next week and the least snowy winter Detroit has recorded during my lifetime was 23.4" in 1997-98. 2023-24 was right there at 23.5". Go north in Michigan and snow towns were calling 2023-24 with its 60, 80, 100" a "non-winter". So all of this worry about the worst case scenarios is STILL relative to one's climo. Even IF its a strong or super nino, many other factors come into play too. So I can say with 100% confidence that any area north of NYC will not be shutout.
  9. michsnowfreak
    Id think its way too early to say anything. I mean "potential" is there for a lot of stuff. But with the ability to make snow im sure ski areas will be fine regardless.
  10. michsnowfreak
    We fairly frequently get snowpack with 1-2" water content but rarely more than that. The most water content i can recall was 2014 with about 4-5" water content by late Feb.
  11. michsnowfreak
    Not a chance. It will be the same crickets as during the cold winter. Unless the west continues to bake.
  12. michsnowfreak
    Im taking a stab in the dark, but i think snowman is going with a super nino.
  13. michsnowfreak
    Not sold on a super el nino and especially not on a torch. I do think it will be milder here than the last 2 cold winters, however.
  14. michsnowfreak
    Snowpack is definitely not created equal depending on area. The exact same amount in different areas and the same conditions will do different things.
  15. michsnowfreak
    How much snow is left?
  16. michsnowfreak
    5 years ago today. Tuese were some amazing winter/spring clash scenes. 4.4" of snow fell here, 3.6" DTW but near 6" on the MI/OH border.
  17. michsnowfreak
    28° at Detroit this morning after a trace of snow yesterday.
  18. michsnowfreak
    I dont really keep track of severe (other than my own daily weather obs), but what I do know is we've had a lot of pretty dull severe seasons, so we were overdue.
  19. michsnowfreak
    There have been 13 confirmed tornados in Michigan this year (Mar/Apr), which is wild. There was one 4 miles to my north Apr 15 which is the closest I can ever recall. Pic below is of that tornadic 2am storm.
  20. michsnowfreak
    Thanks for the explanation! Makes sense.
  21. michsnowfreak
    That is one funky looking standout of blue. Jokes aside, I know you know it, but remember its all relative. The coldest winter ever recorded in Anniston, AL is warmer than the warmest winter ever recorded here. I feel like when we are so far out from the next winter, its easy to focus too much on temps.
  22. michsnowfreak
    Cansips still onto another cold winter here in the Lakes. I have my doubts, but it by far was the best model locally last winter. This is why it will be interesting to follow along this summer. After 2 cold winters, personally I expect a mild winter next year, tho not nearly to the extreme that a few here are undoubtedly hoping for. Those of us at more northern latitudes have seen multiple snowstorms track south the last few years (more than usual) so as always seeing how ALL the indicies, the Pacific, etc behave is just as important as actual temp anamolies.
  23. michsnowfreak
    How can NG "predict" weather trends months in advance?
  24. michsnowfreak
    Yes. Although I WILL say...and this is NOT taking ANYTHING away from them...but NWS MQT is really not representative of Marquette. Its an absolute microclimate snowmagnet. There are multiple similar lake superior microclimates up there (for instance, look at our own @weatherbo) but many of them are in extremely rural to non-populated areas where we may never know how much snow possibly falls at THE best spot. I used to watch the NMU snowcam in Marquette and you could tell there was nowhere near the amt of snow on the ground as MQT officially had. But when I went up there and scoped the area out its an absolute fact. The snow rapidly increases, and its very noticeably, right near the NWS office. The 7am snowdepth today at MQT is 19". The city of Marquette webcams show completely bare ground. For anyone of us, take the absolute snowiest location in your entire metro-area and its outskirts and pretend that would be the official climate station. It would be like Detroit snow records being taken in Lake Orion (which unofficially averages probably 60", not 40-45" like Detroit). Thats how it is in Marquette.
  25. michsnowfreak
    My phone woke me at 2am with the tornado warning alert. I ended up being up 2 hours. The storm was wicked but no tornado here. Possible one 3 miles north. Got 0.82" rain. Looks like quite a bit of damage noted in ann arbor, Dearborn, lincoln park. The constant lightning illuminated the black cloud overhead
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