michsnowfreak

I didnt say they lied. I was questioning the snowfall since NYC records began in 1869 and never averaged close to 40" (other then 2010s). However, I did not see this Newark list. When I clicked "Newark Area" it started in 1930. Usually "area" is the most comprehensive data set for an area. But in this case its not. Not sure where this old data suddenly came from, but I consider any old data pre-1870 to be fascinating because of it's rarity. Indeed that does avg low 40s. Very interesting and would wonder how accurate it is. Newark 1850-1870 average is near idential to present-day Detroit average snowfall, but Newark 1850-1870 DJF still averaged 2.2F warmer and over 4" wetter in winter than present-day Detroit. I wish we had those records for here (there are some sparse observations/journals, but not enough accuracy for a complete record).

Those were the nyc totals i posted btw, bc newark didnt start til the 1930s. I figured nyc was very close.

Im sure its random. After all, enso is just one piece of the puzzle. But the 1890-1957 timeframe still had plenty of up and down winters.

Interesting...coming off of the snowy 2010s where Detroit averaged 49.4" (snowiest decade on record), the 2020s so far averaged 37.8". This is very close to the 1950s 37.4".

I read it. It just seems like a weird way to word it. "as things stand right now worst case...". Thats like saying day 14 on the GFS looks stormy so as things stand right now, best case we get showers, worst case it floods. And then when day 14 becomes day 0 and its dry, cant say you misspoke, but it wasnt anything close the expected scenarios 2 weeks earlier.

The desert SW is obviously the fastest warming region and we see it year in and year out. Its going to continue to warm the conus mean no matter what happens elsewhere. A cold winter in the east (in fact, DCs coldest winter in 30 years) and all we hear on an east-heavy forum is "conus conus conus". Well, the conus mean temp rising really doesnt mean a damn to people who live in the north and get frozen or buried in the winter. Many northern cities temp rise from 1896-2026 is 0F to +3F, yet the desert SW, Tuscon is +4.9F and Phoenix is +6.5F. What a marvelous idea to urbanize a desert.

Lmao. That is ridiculous to say in April that the best case for the following winter is strong. That makes it sound like a foregone conclusion, and its not even close. Its going to be hilarious to see this thread if it doesnt even hit strong. The biggest surprise imo will be if it actually IS a "SSSSUUUUPPPPEEEERRRR" super nino, you just dont get supers that close. Itll be even funnier if the eastern troughing pattern continues or at the very least a 3rd year in a row where the winter turns out much colder in the east than the wishing of some here.

I think @40/70 Benchmark was being sarcastic lol. Anythings possible but highly doubt the accuracy of that Newark snowfall in the low 40s over a 30-year period. That is a Detroit average. Detroits average snowfall has remained remarkably steady since records began in the 1870s in the low 40s with spikes to mid 40s (late 1800s, 1970s-80s, 2000s-10s) and a surprising 3-4 decade dip to the 30s mid-20th century (1930s-60s). Newark doesnt have the POR NYC has. But we're supposed to believe that the average snowfall suddenly dropped by 10" as soon as official records began and has never returned? Call me skeptical. Especially since theres plenty of documentation (tho not detailed records) of winters the first half of the 1800s showing that interspersed with harsh winters were "mild, open" winters. NYC avg snow 1840s-60s: 42” 1870s- 32.9” 1880s- 32.6” 1890s- 36.3” 1900s- 28.4” 1910s- 30.2” 1920s- 29.5” 1930s- 24.5” 1940s- 32.9” 1950s- 19.9” 1960s- 32.0” 1970s- 22.5” 1980s- 19.7” 1990s- 24.4” 2000s- 28.0” 2010s- 37.9” 2020s- 18.2” so far

Thanks. So we can realistically say super nino winters were: 1877-78, 1888-89, 1957-58, 1965-66, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1991-92, 1997-98, 2015-16. None of these were fun winters, but some were certainly worse than others. Also, no surprise, each winter behaved differently with not just snowfall but more importantly temps. The worst snowfall of the lot (5th worst all-time) was 1965-66, but it was also the 3rd coldest of the lot, and the next worst snowfall (1957-58) was 2nd coldest. Period of record avg snowfall for Detroit is 40.9". The best winters of the lot were 1972-73, 1877-78, 2015-16 and the worst 1965-66, 1957-58, 1982-83. Of course, this is all just for kicks. I do not think we hit super nino. 1877-78: 43.4” 1888-89: 23.2” 1957-58: 18.0” 1965-66: 15.4” 1972-73: 45.0” 1982-83: 20.0” 1991-92: 43.2” 1997-98: 23.4” 2015-16: 35.3” 2023-24: 23.5”

Are the only super events 1877-78, 1982-83, 1997-98, & 2015-16?

Looked at the final rankings of 2025-26 for Detroit: SNOWFALL- 39.5” 74 snowier, 71 less snowy SNOWCOVER (1”+)- 63 days 27 had more, 1 had same, 86 had less TEMP- 25.3F 43 colder, 2 same, 107 warmer ****** I notice theres been so much concentration on the west and the small cold pool, that I didnt really see any rankings for nyc. I have to say, they are impressive considering some recent thoughts theyd never get winter again. SNOWFALL- 43.4” 29 snowier, 128 less snowy SNOWCOVER (1”+)- 43 days 16 had more, 97 had less TEMP- 31.9F 42 colder, 2 same, 113 warmer (since note- this is the 1st time NYC had more snowfall than Detroit since 2015 and just the 2nd time in 20 years. While its not fair to rank two different climates, the snowcover at Detroit would be 4th highest on record for NYC and the temp coldest on record).

2025-26 winter rankings at Detroit: SNOWFALL- 39.5” 74 snowier, 71 less snowy (since 1881) SNOWCOVER (1”+)- 63 days 27 had more, 1 had same, 86 had less (since 1913) TEMP- 25.3F 43 colder, 2 same, 107 warmer (since 1874)

Had 0.1" of slushy wet snow that melted quickly Monday. Then a low at DTW of 22F yesterday and 26F today. Likely winters last hurrah til November (or maybe October ;)).

So glad youre back! Please continue to post so we get the whole experience starting in Fall.

I hope they got creative - like the one I made last April 10th lol

Happy Easter all! We have been getting off and on rain every day here. Nothing heavy, but I've tallied 1.27" the past 5 days (0.84 of it yesterday) which has rapidly caused the grass to grow and become emerald green and the trees to bud. Today, we may get a passing Easter rain OR snow shower.

If patterns are getting stuck, maybe we csn continue the luck with plentiful eastern troughing.

I am NO enso expert, not even close, but I remember a handful of years ago, they were hyping a STRONG (I cant even remember if it was Nino or Nina) event and it failed so bad it was either a cold/warm neutral. Not saying I think this El Nino fails, just that it seems way early to be SO confident in a strong one.

Actually had one of my favorite snow memories as a child. Snowstorm on Jan 14th. I was playing in the deep snow at my grandmas house (which is now my house). Around a foot of snow fell in 8 hours. Very dynamic quick hitting storm.

I wouldnt consider that the impressive feature of this season, Id call it the annoying one lol. It certainly did cut off. After 4 consecutive colder than avg months, March will finish (I estimate) 13th warmest on record as well as 12th least snowy. This winter didnt follow a typical Nina in most aspects, but one thing that did hold true is the fact it was front-mid loaded. February was mostly snow-covered so i dont look at it as harshly as some do wrt below avg snowfall. But Nov-Jan was definitely where the fun was this winter. From salt supplies running short before mid-winter and salt/plow contractors begging for a break, to those same contractors wishing we had a few more runs by mid-March. Above avg snowfall seemed like a lock in January but then Feb-Mar was zzz. I am at 40.1" with DTW 39.4". Longterm avg is around 41" but the current 30-yr avg, high as its ever been due to the snowy 2000s/10s, is 45". While its certainly in the vicinity of an "average" snowfall season, theres no question that cold/snowcover exceeded expectations and snowfall fell short. Knowing how I love snowcover, it should come as no surprise the winter was an easy A but have to knock it to B for the zzzzz mid Feb thru Mar. April is very unpredictable so you never know.

1991-92 wasnt bad here for a strong Nino. Average snowfall, a couple good storms. Mild overall, but multiple cold shots.

I plan to get it! Ive done it with my backyard before, and it's really cool, but sometimes when theres too many details (esp my conifers grow so much each year)...sometimes a simpler, wider landscape is the best choice.

Sunny cold day today. Went to the park and took a pic of a field because i thought this was a cool winter/spring contrast pic.

Some flurries overnight. Few areas north of Detroit got a dusting. 24° this morning as the roller coaster temps continue.

Neither am I. And after 2 cold winters (even though the cold surely would've been colder if this was 15+ years ago) its bound to be at a fever pitch.