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Everything posted by michsnowfreak
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Had a rogue storm yesterday. 0.41" fell here. Forecast for the 4th was sunny all week until yesterday morning. This was a slow mover (ann Arbor to DTW corridor) but the only storm in the entire area.
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2025-2026 ENSO
michsnowfreak replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I see what you did there . What a laughable post. Avg Jan temps of 39.5F in cleveland . Only twice have they ever even seen that temp in Jan (1880 & 1932, long ago, so be prepared to be lectured on whats wrong with that data). January and February have been net gains for winter lovers here the past several decades (while Dec has been a net loss). And while its fairly easy for some to just flat out act like the warmer winters/summers pre-1960 didnt exist, its a lot harder to ignore the winters of 2000-2015 and just act like records began in 2016. Because we all remember them. So despite a handful of very mild winters since 2016, still absolutely net gains here for the snowlover. Here is the change in January temperature at every first order site in Michigan and Ohio for their period of record. There is no cherry picking, no leaving out the sites I dont want to use...this is every one for their POR. Every site in OH has grown COLDER except Cleveland. Yes, im aware of site changes and what not. But to assert some magical bump of 15F in avg temp is just wild. MI Grand Rapids: 1894-2025: -0.7F Houghton Lake: 1919-2025: -0.1F Flint: 1921-2025: 0.0F Detroit: 1874-2025: +0.7F Saginaw: 1912-2025: +1.3F Muskegan: 1897-2025: +1.6F Alpena: 1917-2025: +1.6F Sault Ste Marie: 1889-2025: +2.3F Lansing: 1864-2025: +3.5F Marquette 1962-2025: +5.9F OH Dayton: 1894-2025: -3.7F Cincinnati: 1873-2025: -3.0F Youngstown: 1931-2025: -1.9F Wilimington: 1918-2025: -1.8F Toledo: 1874-2025: -1.4F Mansfield: 1917-2025: -1.2F Columbus: 1879-2025: -0.5F Akron: 1888-2025: -0.5F Cleveland: 1871-2025: +0.9F -
2025-2026 ENSO
michsnowfreak replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
CANSIPS July update remains hellbent on a cold winter in the north. -
Ive been looking into past heatwaves, primarily 1930s-1950s, and its insane to think how horrible it would be to live through that heat with no AC. The heatwaves were very deadly, and even many hospitals didnt have AC til the late 1940s or 1950s.
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You imagine correctly lol. 75 would be perfect. I havent even been out yet.
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Detroit nearly did this in 1880-82 the other way around. The winter of 1880-81 had a previously untouchable 93.6" followed by a pitiful 13.2" in 1881-82. Both records stood for a while, although now both rank 2nd, behind 2013-14 (94.9") and 1936-37 (12.9"). While both winters of 1881-82 & 1936-37 were pitiful, 1881-82 was much, MUCH warmer, easily the least wintry on record. Side note- there are some discrepancies in some snow data pre-1885 at Detroit. While a good amount of accurate data exists 1874-1885, due to multiple obvious errors and some M data, they dont include 1874-79 in the official record. However, IMO you could extend this to 1885, as there are discrepancies in these years as well. 1880-81 data that I see comes out to 79.4", so unsure where the extra snow comes from (I would need to look at the archaic books at DTX to find out). It would still rank 2nd (3rd is 78.0"), but if 79.4" is the true number, it makes 2013-14's 94.9" even more impressive in that its 15.5" more than 2nd place). Also, 1881-82 comes out to 11.5", which would make that #1, not #2 least snowy. All of those technicalities aside, the number of instances where an unusually low snow season is followed by an unusually heavy one, and vice versa, are multiple. So Ill call it now. Above avg snow for MLI in 2025-26.
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Thanks to the last 10 days of the month being the warmest last 10 days of June on record (despite a max of "only" 95), June at Detroit ended up tying with 1994 for 11th warmest June on record. To put it into perspective, as of June 20th, it was ranking 64th coldest.
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Well now yes she's older. As I said she's lived there since the late 1970s. Im just going by what she says. I have never been to Texas and have no desire to go. Ive been to Florida several times with no desire to return. Like I said its all personal preference. It had been a very pleasant start to summer but all it took was a 4 day heatwave for me to say I've had enough lol. Give me arctic air anyday.
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My aunts sister has lived in Texas since the late 1970s and HATES the summers down there. She always says that no one goes out during the day. Obviously you can adapt to an extent to long winters or summers, but people will always have preferences.
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Final heatwave numbers for Detroit: 6/21- 92 / 68 6/22- 94 / 78 6/23 - 95 / 75 6/24 - 95 / 76 A solid heatwave, but one as roardog and I noted before it began, that would be more impressive for lows than highs. The only record high, a tie, was on 6/23, and that was low hanging fruit to begin with. But 3 consecutive days set record warm lows (6/22-24). To put this into perspective, in Detroits climate record: The hottest this heatwave was 95F and there have been 197 days with a high or 96F+ on record. The warmest low was 78F, and there have only been 9 days with a higher min (*there have been 10 other days matching the low of 78F). IMO this will likely end up the worst heat of the year.
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I shared a post that a meteorologist posted and tcc loses his shit. Yet he freely posts things all the time from other sources without checking. Its nice to know that from here on tcc will only be concerned about daily temp departures. No more notes about 1am temps or what not! Ok so per that map, 21Z temps were -2.0° below avg in the U.S.
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More heat and humidity coming....but not like what we just saw
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Actually I disagree if we are talking extreme heat vs extreme cold. I think majority of people would rather have neither but would take extreme cold over extreme heat. And lol we get way lower than 40s for months. They could never even have a michigan Fall day let alone winter day. But these past few days are right on par with many Florida summer days. Thank goodness it was only 3-4 days.
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Whenever we get weather like this I always think how AWFUL it would be to live in the south. We have to deal for 3 or 4 days. This is their entire summer.
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Detroit hit 95° today, which tied the record from 1923 & 1911. Today's record was fairly low hanging fruit compared to all surrounding dates. As expected, this heatwave will be much more noteworthy for its lows than its highs. The highest for Detroit should be today's 95°. By comparison, since 1874 there have been 197 days when the high was 96° or hotter.
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I agree. The nights have been very warm and muggy. The high temps have underachieved each day, although you and I discussed that as a likely scenario before the heatwave even started. Yesterday was surprisingly more oppressive than today. I expected today to be the worst.
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There have been 5 official occurrences with a low of 80° at Detroit: July 5, 1921 July 1, 1927 July 1, 1931 July 18, 1942 August 1, 2006 There have been 4 occurrences with a low of 79° and 11 times with a low of 78°. The warmest recorded low at Detroit city airport was 82° on Aug 24, 1968. There were also 7 occurrences with a low of 81° and 8 with a low of 80°.
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The low of 78 at Detroit breaks the daily record and is the warmest low since July 5, 2018. The all-time warmest min for Detroit, set 5 times, is 80.
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DTW did hit 92 but Detroit City and Mt Clemens only hit 89. I suspect I only hit 88-89 on the east side by the water. A bit underwhelming for day 1 but the main heat should be tomorrow thru Tuesday.
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2025-2026 ENSO
michsnowfreak replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
We are due for a snowy December. -
I would never take a car thermometer reading at face value (in the old days we used to have the old bank clock joke with @A-L-E-K). I was just pointing out that the varying temperatures in that area are obvious.
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I was using the 30 year avg. Which is June 10th. The POR avg is June 18th.
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Tomorrow will be the first 90 of the year for DTW. The avg first is June 10th.
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