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michsnowfreak

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Everything posted by michsnowfreak

  1. michsnowfreak
    Youre pathetic. Seeing as though you dont even understand how the weather works, itll be nice when you disappear mid winter when the east gets a noreaster.
  2. michsnowfreak
    My thoughts on this, agree or disagree.... The range of strong/super El Nino snowfalls for Detroit is 20-45". They all have some subtle things in common (early snow, warm December, much colder Jan and/or Feb) but all have differences as well. If the juiced jet provides above avg precip, it can easily be an ok snow year. It works both ways. Since the beginning of record, there are ebbs and flows with snowfall. The record snow of the 2010s settled down big time in the 2020s. We were due. Now, its been 5 years since we had an above avg snow season, so were due the other way. Last years total snow number was only an inch below the longterm avg (5" below the snowier current avg, thanks to the 2000s-10s). But it had way above avg snowcover and below avg temps, so much so it was rated a severe winter on AWSSI. This is now 2 winters in a row that were "cold and white" without a surplus of snow. Theres no question this winter will be warmer than the last 2, but who says thats automatically less snow? We can easily get mild, snowy winters just as we can get cold, white and dry. The strong Nino of 2015-16 had slightly below avg snow in Detroit but above avg snow in the northern suburbs and well above avg snow towards Flint, all with mild temps. Its interesting that most models have eastern MI in the above avg precip as well, on the western shield of the east coast wetness and with a juiced jet. If that comes to fruition, kiss the "dry" el nino goodbye. Of course, it could also unfold in the nightmarish fashion of warm, wet December then colder/drier Jan/Feb. Its all speculation. All that said, I have never once predicted a good winter this year. I expect a subpar winter. But not crazy so. If i had to put a guess on snowfall, id say 30-33" for DTW.
  3. michsnowfreak
    A +1.5C (+2.7F) winter in Detroit is a DJF temp of 31.1F. A -1.0C (-1.8F) winter in Houston is a DJF temp of 53.4F. I better pack my cowboy boots and hat now
  4. michsnowfreak
    I know youre likely exaggerating, but I have friends in the UK and I can guarantee Chicago will have a colder/snowier winter than London.
  5. michsnowfreak
    November 19th
  6. michsnowfreak
    Cooler fall weather looks like its coming after mid-month. Average highs still firmly in the 70s though, dont expect anything too cool. Just fresh air.
  7. michsnowfreak
    Not the whole winter. Maybe December.
  8. michsnowfreak
    My thoughts are that its subpar from average, but not as much as some are assuming with a strong nino.
  9. michsnowfreak
    Its that time of the year. The rapidly shortening days. The cooler weather coming. The excitement of Fall is here. Weather boards are always so focused on the coming winter (and this is coming from the biggest snow weenie there is), but lets not forget Autumn! Fall with its crisp air and color show is an amazing time of year. October is the cant-be-beat month, but September is when the hints begin.
  10. michsnowfreak
    Any ski resorts that struggled the last few cold winters in the Great Lakes/Northeast have no business being in business in the first place.
  11. michsnowfreak
    This is a trademark of climate for the east coast (particularly NYC south) and the Mid-Atlantic. Which is why I dont understand the panic from some over an expected milder than average mean over a 90 day period. Especially with the overwhelming signal for above avg precip in the east. It is different here in the Great Lakes. Big storms are usually in the 6-12" range but snow is much more frequent than the east coast. So my worry about a crummy winter is not that it wont snow- it will many times- its that in the end total snow, snowcover, and stretches of sustained/deep winter are almost always less than average in strong ninos. I imagine its similar in new England, and even though they do get massive noreasters, i cant imagine 1 storm would make or break their season as it would further down the coast.
  12. michsnowfreak
    For me its sweaters and those cold nights with mild sunny days. The smell of the air. October is amazing in Michigan and theres really very few weather patterns that can ruin it.
  13. michsnowfreak
    The excitement of Fall is getting here. Regardless of what winter brings, Fall with its crisp air and color show is an amazing time of year for many of us. Its the perfect distraction for the pre-winter model circus, especially in a strong Nino year.
  14. michsnowfreak
    Still looks ok for here. Ugly for NE. It will undoubtedly change one way or the other in October.
  15. michsnowfreak
    Oh. Do you have a link?
  16. michsnowfreak
    Heres euro.
  17. michsnowfreak
    They confirmed a tornado in Lincoln Park, like 3 miles N of me. It was a brief EF-0. It was crazy driving through the area because it such a small area but the tree damage stood out like a sore thumb. There were scattered trees down everywhere but the lincoln park tornado the tree massacre was noticeable. This was the 2nd tornado in Lincoln Park this year, the other an EF-1 April 15th. Can never recall one so close.
  18. michsnowfreak
    This is an excellent point. Concentration on the seasonal mean is absolutely pointless for the individual weather events. Hell even the warmest winter of my lifetime, 2023-24, had a 10 day stretch of brutal winter weather. It can go both ways of course (a cold winter can be boring). But any weather enthusiast who is too preoccupied with a likely seasonal mean has done a disservice to his hobby that got him here in the first place.
  19. michsnowfreak
    People were saying canadian would change by September. Well. Its held steady. Not saying its right, but it has not caved to a mild winter.
  20. michsnowfreak
    Detroit had 10 days of 90F, looks like they just touched 90F today for the 11th day of the year.
  21. michsnowfreak
    Its crazy to think an area that relatively far north can have an entire snow season with 0.2" or 1.2".
  22. michsnowfreak
    My low mark is 21.5" in 2023-24. Looking at all the strong Ninos, snowfall ranged from 20-45" here. So a realistic early guess for a strong nino for me would be 30-35". Much less dependent on the boom or bust storm than you guys.
  23. michsnowfreak
    Huge difference in climo between ORD & DCA tho
  24. michsnowfreak
    Luck, good and bad, happens in pretty much all winters. Everytime you guys talk 82-83 i cringe because it was definitely the worst strong nino of the bunch here, but I also realize some bad luck was involved in January and February. The extremely uncharacteristic lack of snow here was likely an extra slap in the face coming off the very snowy 1981-82.
  25. michsnowfreak
    Perfectly stated. Ive noticed its very common with some to make winters of yesterday seem harsher than they were, winters of today seem less harsh than they are, and use all-time severe winters as baseline for "typical" cold. Its funny to see so much pushback by some in admitting last winter was cold. Mind you, this a winter expected to be very mild by these same folks. Since it was cold, all we hear is "it was record warm in the west" "this used to be the norm" (it did not) "it was colder in the 1970s" (who said it wasnt?) etc etc etc
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