michsnowfreak

It was not record breaking here, however the 2.2" snowfall on November 9th was much earlier than avg (avg first measurable snow is Nov 17th and avg first 1"+ snowfall is Nov 30th) and the high temp of 31F on November 10th missed the record low max by 3F. Right around this time in 2019, record early heavy snow AND cold were occurring here.

2010-11 here: Nov: T, Dec: 9.2", Jan: 18.0", Feb: 31.8", Mar- 9.1", Apr- 1.3", total 69.4". A very solid wall to wall winter here.

Although it doesnt directly apply to the Great Lakes, I read your outlook and you did a fantastic job. You explained/laid out everything re: your thoughts on winter 2025-26.

I agree to a point. Some of the recent years with unusually wintry novembers followed by unusually tame Decembers was weird. To happen once, no biggie. But it happened multiple times. But then, sometimes you get slammed in January and February and forget about how December was meh. Especially since December is busy with Christmas activities and January and February are boring. All that said, I'm really hoping for a great December then when January starts we will worry about that. One month at a time.

The absolute lack of any warm signal in December from the Euro Weeklies day after day, especially in an era when longrange models often climo-correct themselves/lean warm, is a great sign. Im surprisingly in agreement with snowman in that it is textbook La Nina. Ive said it many times, historically December is a great winter month in a La Nina in the Great Lakes, and last December was on the mild side and very underwhelming, despite my having high hopes initially. Then again, Feb was cold, constant deep winter, another unusual month that didnt follow the La Nina textbook. Ill roll the dice and gamble on a cold, snowy December and worry about February when it gets here lol.

Thanks! Yes, thats a burning bush. Its not my house, i just thought it looked cool lol. While the Fall colors are past peak, there are a few hanging on and they created beautiful and unusual scenes this morning. We had 2.5" total, but the first half was very heavy, wet 4-1 ratio snow in the morning, some afternoon melting while still snowing, then more fluffy snow in the evening. The excitement of the first snow never gets old.

Snowed all day here in SE MI yesterday and throughout the Great Lakes. Mid 20s with wind chills in the teens this morning and a winter wonderland. Snow is falling in KY and TN today and record cold is plunging into the south with freeze warnings over the entire southeast and into Florida. It's not going to last, and the east will miss the brunt, but to already see type a large cold snap like this before mid November can't be a bad sign.

Neat event. Looks like the jackpot areas saw 10-12". Over here, our 1.2" of heavy wet snow yesterday half melted then we got another 1.3" from the Lake Huron band in the evening. It was gorgeous this morning as the last gasps of autumn mixed with the early touch of winter, temps in the mid 20s with wind chills mid teens. Snow totals were 2.5" my backyard, 2.2" DTW. Some areas in the thumb/Port Huron saw 4-6". Totals varied widely throughout SE MI, with some spots getting as little as 0.5" to as much as 6". Detroit-south saw the most snow in the morning (1-3") and then the eastern suburbs saw the most in the evening (1-6").

It has begun. The first snow today. Absolutely beautiful and it NEVER gets old. Just over an inch, wouldve been more without the early November ground temps and 32-33 air temps. But the first snow always tells me...its show time! I notice the weeklies got their colder look back as well.

It was absolutely gorgeous this morning. Had it been a few degrees colder or few weeks later in the season, it would have been 2-3". Instead we got 1.1" here with 1.2" at DTW. I belive Ann Arbor got 1.5-2" and 2-2.5" near the ohio border. The magic of the first snow....only 5 months til the last snow lol!

Early November. Brisk air and gray skies.

Todays weeklies are colder than yesterday starting December 1st. They oscillate often. But so far no warm signal at all in December.

I would expect nothing less from NMME. if i recall, it was even warmer last winter, and we know how that worked out.

They jump a lot. And you now have access https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202511070000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202511170000 https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A[]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Extended (42 days)"%2C"Sub-seasonal"]}

Regardless of what snow happens Sunday morning. The meso features on models after that look interesting too

Hey we all want snow in our backyard, so not selfish at all. Very excited for our first snow here Sunday.

Congrats on the job! And yes, come up and visit!

I dont think that one or two days of snowflakes a year will be quite the same as a Toronto winter.

Ive said since summer im feeling a good December here. I will go down with the ship if im wrong, but now that we are getting closer, its nice to see mets/models latch onto that general idea. For the talk of a textbook La Nina....well....a textbook La Nina has a good December here, and in fact, often times December is the best month of the winter. It has been a long time since that has been the case, as January/February almost always take home the prize lately.

Ive been saying since summer that Im feeling a good December. Were a month away, so Im going down with the ship if necessary!

Excitement for the first snowflakes/snowfall never gets old! Neither does the fact that the models are all over the place with each cycle.

omg are you serious!? Why the move?

31 at DTW this morning. 20s in outlying areas. First official freeze of the season

This is an interesting take. Because I always get the impression that the 90s were beloved on the east coast. The decade of the 1990s as a whole was very meh snow wise here in southeast MI. Of course there were moments, but every decade has them. The 2000s and 2010s were FAR superior to the 1990s, and even the maligned 2020s has averaged around the same (halfway thru) as the 1990s (full decade) did.

It wasnt just great, 2013-14 was the most severe winter on record in southeast MI. It followed multiple harsh winters beginning in 2002-03. The mild regime since has been concentrated on a handful of very warm winters and some average ones. Snowfall hasn't suffered greatly compared to longterm average, but took a steep decline from the record 2005-2015 stretch.