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michsnowfreak

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Everything posted by michsnowfreak

  1. michsnowfreak
    Makes sense. After almost any winter rainstorm there's a lake snow response.
  2. michsnowfreak
    I think thats a reasonable take. Especially for the coast, its not like December is prime winter normally anyway, much less in a strong nino. @roardog @LakePaste25 and other Great Lakers. @40/70 Benchmark i know you dont forecast for the Lakes. I dont "forecast" at all but with all the discussion to date I can envision the season playing out something like this in SE MI- we get a good winter blast in mid or late November (hopefully Thanksgiving time) with well below avg temps and snow (probably synoptic and lake- watch out lake belts). Then December sees that late Fall vibe return. Not "warm", but more murky mild and Novembery. It will snow, but with the mild days handily outnumbering the cold ones will need some luck and good timing or else Decembers wintry opportunities may be limited to mood flakes and snow squalls. January and February is when its game on but we will have two different scenarios to worry about. Scenario 1- the warmer strong nino outcome. More mild days. This also increases our odds bigtime of those dynamic wet snowstorms (think Jan/Mar 2023). But with those odds you still have to worry about storm track, plus you lose a lot of the daily mood flakes/light snows you get most winters. Scenario 2- the colder outcome models hint at. This is good for a more traditional winter feel, but too much of this could be cold and dry (moreso MI and west, not so much LakePaste territory). Winters like 1957-58 & 1965-66 that east coasters salivate over were boring as hell here, cold and dry with very light snowfall. We did at least have a light 1-3" snowcover each time for all the cold, but id imagine id be pulling my hair out as multiple storms hit the east. (Closest ive come to that was 1995-96 but even that was better than '58 or '66). Personally I dont think its happening, at least to that extent. If the cold wins, I think we see much more snow than '58 or '66 (not necessarily above avg, just more than those pitiful years). We've had two winters in a row where snowcover and cold "outpaced" snowfall, cant imagine 3 in a row. March- most of us are well overdue for a good March and early outlooks agree. I expect a good snowstorm this month. And if the rest of winter is lighter on snowfall, I can almost guarantee it.
  3. michsnowfreak
    Speaking of your thoughts/expectactions lol. I noticed you've been repeatedly mentioning a warm December. Which seems a good bet based on everything from model forecasts to big support from strong nino climo. Are you going prohibitively warm/torch or just mild?
  4. michsnowfreak
    I hate when the media does that. Especially for areas such as the Great Lakes, Midwest and Northeast. Its actually fascinating to see how much of the world does NOT get to enjoy the extremes of both winter and summer like we do. Really if you like seasonal extremes, its a great place to live. Our griping, complaining, worrying or excitement based on what local weather lies ahead is our personal comparison to our climo that were used to. I have a friend in the UK and she would freak at how cold she would be in our warmest winter on record or how hot shed be in our coldest summer on record.
  5. michsnowfreak
    I hate that too. I hate heat but if its going to be hot id much rather see a good heatwave challenge some daytime high records rather than a swampy 88-92 with warm tropical low temps bringing up the departure.
  6. michsnowfreak
    It was wintry here, excellent thick ice cover on lakes and persistent snowcover. But actual snowfall wasnt impressive - BECAUSE of the cold, many storms tracked south. In fact, Detroit (39.5") received less snow than NYC (43.4") for just the 2nd time the past 20 years. Snow was in the air and on the ground near constantly though, so A+ scenary wise. Despite the slightly below avg snowfall, the winter ranked as "Severe" on the AWSI, a testament to the deep cold and lasting snowpack. It was one of those winters that the public perceived as harsh. My mom (a fellow winter lover) loved how every night looking out at her backyard the snow shimmered like a million diamonds. At NYC, the 43 days of 1"+ snowcover ranked 17th most since 1912. So, 115 years, 16 years had more snowcover and 98 years had less (so much for there always being snow on the ground when old timers were kids ). At Detroit, the 63 days with 1"+ snowcover ranked 28th most since 1908. Moving into this Nino, these are great examples why the snow-lover in me doesnt always want to see a deep blue map. So many moving parts for the coming winter, which is why I follow this thread with such interest. I do expect an overall subpar winter by MI standards, but theres so many different ways that could (or could not) happen.
  7. michsnowfreak
    Same for Detroit. 3rd coldest for that period, behind those same 2 years. Thats also the coldest time of the year on record climatologically, so extra impressive. 8.7F – 1895 10.1F – 1936 12.3F – 2026 12.6F – 1899 12.9F – 1918
  8. michsnowfreak
    I dont think it was overhyped AT ALL. In fact, everytime someone on here spoke about the abnormal cold they were inundated with how warm it was out west. There was some very impressive cold stretches. It was the 3rd coldest Jan 15-Feb 9 on record at Detroit. The first half of December was 5th coldest on record. In the end, the average winter temperature was solidly below avg based on any 30-year normal or the entire climate POR. It was the coldest since 2014-15. In a winter that was expected by many to be mild, it was solidly colder than avg in the Lakes/East. No one said it was record cold, but its also a copout to use a phrase like "its winter its supposed to be cold". Thats why averages exist. For Detroit, it was 44th coldest of 153. For Erie, PA it was 35th coldest of 153. At NYC it was 43rd coldest of 158.
  9. michsnowfreak
    I believe that was the case in Feb 2015. I don't remember who, but someone had a meltdown with the historic cold because it was warm elsewhere in the globe, saying this is the worst thing for Americans who mock cc.
  10. michsnowfreak
    I thought i was reading backwards. "Poor guy" . HE was a complete dick, not the other way around.
  11. michsnowfreak
    This is the time of year when I get impatient for Fall. So over summer.
  12. michsnowfreak
    All this concentration on Winter but Fall comes first. Fall is one of my favorite times of the year. October in MI is amazing so I'm hoping it is mostly dry, cool and sunny.
  13. michsnowfreak
    Summer regional rainfall seems like it would be SO difficult to average out because of the highly localized and connective nature of rainfall in most areas.
  14. michsnowfreak
    Good job on identifying and addressing your issue! Hopefully he does the same.
  15. michsnowfreak
    The only one who doesnt deserve respect is you. The biggest troll on the board who adds NOTHING about science, weather, or anything other than trolling. I wasnt referring to myself - I rarely responded to snowman. Everyone else who did got his vitriol, tantrums and insults.
  16. michsnowfreak
    I have no problem seeing opposing viewpoints, biases, etc. Bluewave is a great example. I often disagree with many things he says, but he is never disrespectful. Keep on doing you bluewave. Thats how to run a discussion forum on the internet. But snowman was very rude, mean-spirited, and would hurl insults. He may have a lot of knowledge, but so do many people in here. His posts will not be missed by me.
  17. michsnowfreak
    To be fair, when it gets colder than avg or snowy, posts from anywhere around the world are fair game. Last winter we would see something in French or Spanish tell us the cold wont last.
  18. michsnowfreak
    Maybe "triggered" was a poor word choice, although ive seen it used by some incorrectly to reference the cold/snow posters a lot too. The models are certainly colder/less warm than I was expecting for this strong nino. But im really more interested/worried about precip patterns. A part of me really likes the wetter look of a lot of models (even tho the brunt is east) and the idea of a juiced jet. But cant discount the overall tendency of drier in El ninos.
  19. michsnowfreak
    Of course its reasonable. I haven't seen anyone say or imply otherwise for the GL/NE. However, the discussion that... it probably wont be record warm or a wall to wall torch, and that there isnt a linear correlation of the stronger the nino to the warmer the winter...is very triggering for some.
  20. michsnowfreak
    Almost like The Shining, only in snowmans version there is no snow because of a nuclear el nino.
  21. michsnowfreak
    1877-78 was certainly a mild winter region-wide, but the core of the anomalies were in the far upper midwest (ie: MN). Detroit had a 14.8" snowstorm on Jan 31st. Season snowfall totaled 43.4". December and March were very warm, but Jan/Feb only a bit milder than normal and with plenty of winter weather. Locally there were several shittier winters of that era. I wish someone would do a study on the insane weather patterns that gripped this region for nearly a decade worth of winters. The rubber band snap every other year was incredible, unlike anything in the climate record. But it was so long ago, its never mentioned. 8 straight winters from 1874-82, and each winter STILL resides in Detroits top 20 warm/cold winters on record. 1874-75: 2nd coldest 1875-76: 19th warmest 1876-77: 19th coldest 1877-78: 16th warmest 1878-79: 14th coldest 1879-80: 12th warmest 1880-81: 13th coldest 1881-82: 1st warmest
  22. michsnowfreak
    This x10000. The uniqueness of having record breaking warmth on Christmas Day, such as we had in 1982, helps it live on in memories of all who experienced it. Do you remember a random 60-65F day if it was on Dec 11th or Jan 10th? No. But if its on Dec 25th...yes. Also, that winter was extraordinarily snowless here, and bad luck certainly played a roll. After the December warmth, January/February had plenty of days cold enough for snow (tho they were both mild in the mean), it was just dry dry dry. 1982-83 was well on its way to all-time futility until a 7.3" snowstorm on the 1st day of spring, and another 3.4" snow in mid-April, screwed it.
  23. michsnowfreak
    Its going to be a COMPLETELY different winter than the last few. Last winter was deep winter. It ended on the AWSI index as severe bordering extreme due to the cold and snowcover. Winter is more than the final snow number. The sustained cold is the reason we didnt get more snowfall. This coming winter it goes without saying will be milder and with less snowcover. However despite the possibly record strong Nino, there are numerous signs that it will be colder than some of the other big strong Ninos (not going to get into a long discussion, thats in the main forum enso thread). Plus in milder winters, often there are some good dynamic wet snowstorms. In addition, strong/super Ninos are much wetter than the traditional "dry" look of El Nino. More than likely it will come down to precip. Every winter we hear futility talk but a sub-20" winter hasnt happened since 1968-69. There have been 10 sub-20" winters in 152 years. Anythings possible but the bottom 6% is a big call. It would be like having confidence in a 65"+ winter. Still too far out tho, other than thoughts. Hoping for a nice, colorful Fall.
  24. michsnowfreak
    Ive been reading the enso thread on the main forum. Definitely expect the mean to be milder than avg but should have plenty of wintry opportunities.
  25. michsnowfreak
    Its not just the Euro. The CANSIPS has been unwavering with a likely too-cold look. And the CFS with its daily changes hasnt gone bonkers with warmth either and has stayed hell bent on a cold most-of-the-country look in Feb-Mar (except the far north, which is a moot point for snow lovers that far north). Im not making ANY forecast, Im just saying its not April or May anymore. Its now August, and the same models that ARE showing a record strong El Nino ARE NOT showing a record warm winter. Nor are they getting warmer as we get closer. If it was the opposite and all models showed it unexpectedly warm, say historic warm (since we already expect a warm look in a strong nino)....the SAME people dismissing these models now would be analyzing them verbatim.
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