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michsnowfreak

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Everything posted by michsnowfreak

  1. michsnowfreak
    Just to be clear, I wasnt aiming that at you. Was at prior posts by some others. I certainly expect less cold/lake snow intrusions than last year. We had snow like 25 days in a row last jan/feb. I think some near the Lake Superior shore might have had 2-3 days total in a 90 day period with no snowflakes. Definitely see less of that this winter. I personally do unfortunately think its a winter of low snowfall totals in the Lakes...but again, low is not no lol. If Marquette managed a winter under 100" the locals would say it was a non winter. For Detroit im guessing around 30"ish for now.
  2. michsnowfreak
    Wouldn't the question be how did they do in 2015-16? I mean, im refuting the absurd ideas of a snowless winter; in fact, I actually said multiple times we probably see one big torch month. Marquette 160.9" (dec 18.9") Grand Rapids 61.1" (dec 2.5") Detroit 35.3" (dec 1.3") Even in an all time warm December like 2015, it snowed. Just much less than usual.
  3. michsnowfreak
    Snow flies in the Great Lakes all the time. Its not uncommon to have snow fall daily for weeks straight in Great Lakes cities. Detroit, a city in the Great Lakes but not in the snowbelt, averages 37 days annually with measurable snow and when you add in the dozens of traces a typical season sees about 70-80 days where snow is observed from first flakes to last. You can imagine the averages IN the snow belts (Marquette averages 93 days with measurable snow, not even counting traces). These assertions that it wont snow or won't snow til February are ridiculous. I thought id seen it all when last winter people were ignoring frozen landscapes and ongoing blizzards in their backyards to discuss warmth out west (a region that never previously garnered interest), but we are definitely going to be in for some freaky stuff this winter. No snow in Marquette! Flirting with 90 in Jan in nyc! Can't wait to see what's next.
  4. michsnowfreak
    In 2023-24 the Gaylord area in NW lower MI saw like 80" of snow and considered it a non winter. (They had record snow last winter). The mere idea of no snow in the lakes is insane.
  5. michsnowfreak
    WHO thinks this is going to be a good winter? @40/70 Benchmark, myself and others have marveled at this statement which gets thrown around here somewhat frequently and yet no one can point out a SINGLE person who says this will be a "good winter". I guess saying that it will snow in places that have never seen a winter without multiple snowfalls means a "good winter". The mere idea of no snow in the Great Lakes region with shorts from Christmas to Valentines day is absolutely ridiculous. Guarantee ill be wearing sweaters and worst case scenario enjoying a much lower heating bill than usual. Its amazing how some people lose their grasp on reality of how the weather works.
  6. michsnowfreak
    Not to nitpick but the ice storm was Jan 1998. But yes. Nov-Jan 1997-98 was fine here for a strong Nino. Plenty of snowfalls. February was the disaster no-show. March saw a winter comeback of sorts but most of it stayed west of me.
  7. michsnowfreak
    I actually wouldn't mind something like 1877-78 here at all. I mean, id NEVER wish for it outright, but saddled with a super nino, its not a bad outcome in the Great Lakes region (further northwest into MN and Southern Canada a different story). With records somewhat limited, im going strictly off Detroit data, but a reasonable amount of extrapolation for nearby areas can be done. After a bit of snow and cold around Thanksgiving, December torched, then much colder and snowier weather hit in January and February, including a huge snowstorm. It was still a bit milder than average, but in prime climo months it wasnt prohibitive at all in getting solid winter weather here. The torch returned in March and April. It certainly made for a much shorter winter than we are used to, but if im forced to have a limited winter, why not get the best weather in the prime time instead of november, march and april. Also, a scenario like that isnt at all unrealistic in recent times, as Jan/Feb, especially Jan, have seen almost no warming at all, unlike Dec and Mar.
  8. michsnowfreak
    Interesting that Chicago never had measurable snow on Halloween til 2014 then has had it 3 times since. Detroit has only had it twice (1993- 0.1", 2023- 0.2"). Halloween 1950 was a scorcher (79° at Detroit but 81° on Nov 1st).
  9. michsnowfreak
    I was going by vague memory as a general statement (I dont know Chicago stats like I do Detroits lol). It was 2019 & 2023.
  10. michsnowfreak
    The summers haven't lengthened 2 months is my point. This October is very abnormal warmth wise, especially out your way. Im not sure what your exact averages are being 80 miles south of Chicago, but the Chicago area saw several October snowfalls in recent years. Naturally Michigan or Wisconsin are colder, but you cant consider a top 10 or 5 month "normal". November looks to start with well above avg temperatures, and it will be interesting to see how the back half of the month plays out, because November has the largest difference of any month from first to last day of the month, so the natural quick descent into winter November sees will be fighting the influence of a strong nino.
  11. michsnowfreak
    We have actually had very warm Novembers (1902, 1975, 2015) give nice early snowstorms after the 20th of the month. We've also had cold Novembers produce an inch or less of snow. It's the very beginning of winter so anything can and will happen.
  12. michsnowfreak
    The first half of November will definitely be warmer than avg. November (at least here) is the most rapidly changing month of the entire year from first day to last. So with the natural transition from Fall to winter alone, I would expect the second half to be solidly colder than the first, but in the end, highly confident anyone in the north finishes the month on the cool side of normal is an ill-advised call.
  13. michsnowfreak
    What weather enthusiast wouldnt marvel about how warm it is in Phoenix when theres a blizzard in his own backyard?
  14. michsnowfreak
    With a juiced jet, I like the chances of some good storms in the region. Where they will hit, who knows, stay tuned. In fact, a family friend always asks my prediction for winter. She just asked today. This was my response: There is a very strong El Nino this winter. So unfortunately a mild winter is expected. The warmest month will likely be December and coldest February. This does not mean no cold/snow/ice, just less than usual. I would expect lots of periods of bare ground unlike last winter which was white, but also a heightened threat for a very strong winter storm or two.
  15. michsnowfreak
    Ive noticed a trend the last few years in the op GFS/GEM where summer heat and winter cold numbers are ridiculous in fantasy range.
  16. michsnowfreak
    Where are you living now? Definitely disagree with summer extending 2 months - thats simply not true. However, average temps have risen more in spring/fall. In the southern Great Lakes, we still get accumulating snow in April, frosts/freezes/snow into May, snow in October, and sometimes cold and multiple snows in November. Every year is different of course, but the growing season is not based on an "average" temperature. Spring in particular is often a very dreary season in these parts, so an increase in temps would be beneficial to many a normie, though you will still get the cold/snow late. Chopping a few days off the first/last dates for snow/freezes really doesnt mean much in the grand scheme of things. Winter is cold, summer is hot...transition seasons are a massive wildcard. Detroit first/last freeze *** first/last measurable snow Last 30 years (1997-2026): October 27 – April 21 *** November 20 – April 5 POR (1874-2026): October 22 – April 24 *** November 16 – April 8 Chicago first/last freeze *** first/last measurable snow Last 30 years (1997-2026): October 24 – April 20 *** November 20 – April 2 POR (1872-2026): October 25 – April 18 *** November 17 – April 2
  17. michsnowfreak
    Every year the Fall color show is a brilliant show to enjoy, but I cannot recall an October with a more uninterrupted day after day after day routine of enjoying bright colors in the sun. Very light winds and little rain have also prohibited leaves from falling until they slowly flutter down naturally.
  18. michsnowfreak
    Honestly, no need to do that. The ones who cancel winter every year before it begins and tout warm this and snowless that absolutely disappear in spring when its time to own up on their massive fails- they just start touting how warm the next winter will be.
  19. michsnowfreak
    Life would absolutely SUCK without the 4 seasons we are fortunate to get. That said, this weather has been perfect to enjoy the beauty of Fall.
  20. michsnowfreak
    Been following the ENSO thread in the main forum all summer. Its kind of like a winter preview. Lots of good discussion, but have to sift through the usual troll garbage. Expectations definitely set for a warmer than avg winter, but with a juiced jet Im liking the chances of a real good storm or two. Last winter was perfect for us deep winter lovers, but all the snow was powder. I anticipate a few good paste jobs this year making for scenic pics. My first guess for Detroit is 30"-ish in total. After a banner snowcover year last winter, expect much more bare this winter unfortunately.
  21. michsnowfreak
    He missed bad in '24-25 as well. Hes not "forecasting" like you, hes just playing his game.
  22. michsnowfreak
    Its interesting that all he can do is quote posts from before the last flakes even fell LAST season.....8-9 MONTHS before winter arrives. Your quoted posts of his are from right when winter was on the doorstep last year.
  23. michsnowfreak
    bluewave probably spent hours trying to locate one station for each month that had a +10 anomaly. There is a big difference between an isolated station versus an entire region ala Dec 2015.
  24. michsnowfreak
    Always so many factors. There are a handful of late 19th-early 20th century winters that featured incredible warmth in parts of the north/east U.S. I have no idea what the weather patterns/indicies were in place, but they featured extraordinary warmth, a few of which has never been exceeded in this region since then- 1881-82, 1889-90, 1931-32 (these are the 3 warmest at Detroit and many other nearby locals). Other warm winters included 1875-76, 1877-78, 1879-80, 1905-06, 1918-19. If you add some mathematical formula of X per decade of warming if we had the same identical pattern today, youd get an astronomical number the likes which we have never seen. So I don't think thats always the answer. This El Nino may be a bit warmer over the CONUS as a whole than under identical conditions a decade or two ago, but that still means nothing for individual areas.
  25. michsnowfreak
    100%. Completely ignoring how weather patterns work because the earth is warming is a complete disservice to meteorology, and most here know that, so the trolls continue to look foolish. The obsession is strictly over a seasonal (or annual) mean which totally ignores day to day, week to week weather. Why even bother with the hobby then? I just ran the #s out of curiosity, knowing the spell of mild winters we had in the 1930s-50s, and sure enough, Detroit has averaged MORE below zero days in the 2000s, 2010s, and 2020s than in the 1930s, 1940s, or 1950s. Wanna grasp at a straw that the site has changed over the years, then use nearby Ann Arbor. They have been at U of M site unchanged since 1880...and they too saw significantly more below zero days in the 2000s-2020s than the 1930s-1950s.
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