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Everything posted by michsnowfreak
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2025-2026 ENSO
michsnowfreak replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I have to disagree. Extended looks cold after midmonth -
2025-2026 ENSO
michsnowfreak replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I think most airports are going the way of that. DTW has had paid snow observers for like 15+ years. A lot of other places do too (paid observers, volunteer, etc). I think the goal is to find a good/feasible spot to measure away from the airfield (harder to measure, plus faa dont want it anyway). As long as its within a 5 mile radius or less of the airport, its good. -
2025-2026 ENSO
michsnowfreak replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Like I said. Crazy. In the entire 152-year climate record, the most for Detroit was 94.9" in 2013-14 & the least 12.9" in 1936-37, one of the dustbowl winters. -
2025-2026 ENSO
michsnowfreak replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I cant find a stretch in the 152 year record here of 8 consecutive winters below avg, but there was a horrendous stretch from 1931-32 thru 1948-49 where 15 of the 18 winters were below avg. Some of them were mild/snowless in many places, but several others were what youre going through now (missing in every direction, etc). Climo always puts things in perspective. It seems like a large concentration of this board is on the east coast/midatlantic, so it would be easy for them to think "big deal, youre not hitting 60" but you still get plenty of snow". We all want snowy backyards, but our climo has to be the base for our expectations. So you have a right to be pissed. I have a friend who moved to SE MI from SoCal 7 years ago and she thinks our winters are the north pole (and she loves it!), not even having experienced the real fun of a decade+ ago. Also have a friend from Long Island who gets a kick out of how its "always snowing" here. Then....my local group of weather weenies. Put a snow weenie in a state known for snow (our licence plates literally say "Water Winter Wonderland") but in the least snowy part of the state....its constant bitching and whining about the snow falling in the snowbelts. -
2025-2026 ENSO
michsnowfreak replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
See this is crazy to me! 30" storm - 2 2 foot storms in a week - 0.9" for an entire season....all in the same place! -
2025-2026 ENSO
michsnowfreak replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
100%. The longterm average snowfall is around 42" (the current averages are a few inches higher due to the snowy 2000s-10s). Using official Detroit data for the 42 winters since I was born, the least snowy was 23.4" (1997-98) and the snowiest 94.9" (2013-14). The largest snowstorm 16.7" (Feb 1-2, 2015). A huge majority of winters will fall in the 30-60" range. Not in my lifetime has there been a winter with snowfall worse than 50% of average. You can always count on snow. You'll also see tons of days of "mood flakes" that dont add to the total (lakes influence). Its just wild from my perspective to see areas of the Mid-Atlantic have had snowstorms that dropped FEET of snow and entire winters where the ground was never covered once. -
2025-2026 ENSO
michsnowfreak replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
1995-96 was my first year measuring snow imby and it was quite a doozy of CAD. Now, again, remember CAD is different here in the Lakes. No matter how good or bad a pattern is, flakes will be in the air. Its not literally bone dry, but in my lifetime by far it was the biggest screwzone Ive ever been in. The Chicago-Detroit corridor just missed everything of relevance that year. ORD had 23.9" and DTW 27.6". The early Feb coldsnap saw days of below zero weather with zero snow on the ground, very rare for here. Totals couldve been even worse if not for a nice March 20th snowstorm (5.8" DTW, 7.0" mby, forecast was 1-3"). Weve had so many great winters since I dont really think about it, and in fact, I would NEVER even give it a thought if not for always seeing it mentioned on here . And almost certainly re: Philly. Obviously the avg much less to begin with, but a Nina winter is almost always better here anyway. Since 1995-96, Nina snowfalls ------ PHL -- DTW 1995-96: 65.5” – 27.6” 1998-99: 12.5” – 49.5” 1999-00: 21.0” – 23.7” 2000-01: 26.1” – 39.0” 2005-06: 19.5” – 36.3” 2008-09: 22.9” – 65.7” 2011-12: 4.0” – 26.0” 2016-17: 15.0” – 37.9” 2017-18: 29.8” – 61.0” 2020-21: 23.9” – 44.9” 2021-22: 12.9” – 47.1” 2022-23: 0.3” – 37.1” 2025-26: 4.8” – 17.8” *thru Jan 7 -
2025-2026 ENSO
michsnowfreak replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Definitely infuriating but as you know, at some point, itll turn around. -
2025-2026 ENSO
michsnowfreak replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
You've only had 8"? With your climate its bound to turn around soon with like a 3 foot storm lol. -
Ours melted overnight. Down to 0 depth. Ive had 29 days of 1"+ snowcover to date. Nov 10-11 Nov 30-Dec 18 Dec 29-Jan 6
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2025-2026 ENSO
michsnowfreak replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Depending how cold the 2nd half of January is, I think we still have a good shot at geing colder than avg. Departure at DTW thru 1/5 is -4.8°. Mild weather will naje that a positive Departure but I doubt +5 or 6 by the time we turn cold -
2025-2026 ENSO
michsnowfreak replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Regardless what temps do snow still goes in cycles too. Back 2007-15 even in shit patterns it snowed a lot. It has snowed here on 28 of the past 42 days. We've totaled 18.2" and had snow on the ground since late november with exception of Dec 21-28 (tho it is melting today). I can NEVER say no to a solid winter look...but its nearly 3 years since we've had a 6" storm. We have no issue getting snow, just haven't had a good one in a while. -
2025-2026 ENSO
michsnowfreak replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The last thing I want to think about when we aren't even to mid winter is a strong nino next winter. -
This is not a forecast but rather food for thought. Looking ahead, definitely appears winter will return after this coming January thaw. As to what happens Feb and beyond idk, but Feb in Ninas can be great months for winter storms in our region.....they also have a tendancy for a torch (esp late Feb) before March sees winter roar back (and we are due for a snowy March).
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2025-2026 ENSO
michsnowfreak replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
February in a nina can have some good winter storms here. I know it's warmer in the east but idk about "torch". Does anyone have a temp composite of all nina Februarys? -
2025-2026 ENSO
michsnowfreak replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Mild isnt detrimental to snow here in more northern climates, but its a completely different type of winter. Highlights of 2022-23 would be that we had 5" of snow on the ground Christmas morning, and between January-March we saw 3 different 5-7" snowstorms, a huge ice storm, and other smaller snowfalls. But we also had several multiple-week stretches of bare ground and mild temps. So far, 2025-26 has been good for cold and snowcover here but without big storms. Snow has fallen on 28 of the 41 days since November 26, and snow has been on the ground since Thanksgiving weekend with the exception of Christmas week (lol). Looking at the long range, I wouldnt necessarily assume a dry January. Im not looking forward to the thaw this week but am liking mid-Jan into Feb for here. -
At Detroit, 2025 did finish slightly warmer than avg (51.1F), but it was nearly 3F colder than the warmest year on record of 2024, and it was also the coldest year since 2019. Precip was below avg (29.81") and it was the driest year since 2022. Snowfall was ever-so-slightly below avg, but in the avg vicinity, at 40.1". It was the snowiest year since 2022. It was the most snow-covered year (59 days 1"+) since 2015, despite no warning criteria snowstorms. In fact, the max calendar day snowfall (3.2") was the lowest since 2001. Max/Min was 95/-3
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2025-2026 ENSO
michsnowfreak replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
2022-23 was an interesting winter here in the southern Great Lakes. There were multiple good snowstorms (mostly wet snow) and a bad ice storm, plus a frigid and snowy Christmas week. But overall it was a very mild winter. -
So very sorry
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If you could re-experience ONE winter event....
michsnowfreak replied to cyclone77's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Tough one. Id say probably either the Blizzard of 1999 or the storm of Jan 6, 2014. The 2014 storm was incredible in how the temp just flash froze everything into place when it dropped to -14F following the storms passage. Blizzard of 1999 id like to relive so I can observe the details more. I remember it well, but I remember mostly after the fact, only a bit during it. But it goes without saying, id sacrifice it all to relive the entire winter of 2013-14. -
I had been promising my nephew to go sledding most of December but was always so busy with the Christmas stuff. Now January - March can really kick into high gear for winter fun. Locally, its been a good winter for cold and snowcover, just not big storms - the ground has been white since Thanksgiving weekend with the exception of Christmas week lol. Hoping after this weeks thaw winter really digs back in.
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Daily dustings of snow the first 3 days of January (0.5, 0.3, 0.2). Went sledding with a nephew today, perfect winter day for it.
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2025-2026 ENSO
michsnowfreak replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The warm, snowless start to the season in the West is remarkable and highly unusual. Though I do have to say...with a few exceptions, its very rare to have a "good" winter simultaneously in both the east and west. The term "good" being subjective and relative to one's climate of course. No matter what any given winter in southeast Michigan does relative to climo, it will always be a bad winter to a snow weenie in Marquette and a good winter to a snow weenie in DC. The trough/ridge alignment is a huge part of how weather works. I know very little about past winters in the west, but i read a story once about repeated blizzards in the winter of 1948-49. That was a horrid, mild, snowless winter here. -
I was 15 and remember it like yesterday. It was an incredible storm on the heels of a nearly snowless November/December.
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2025-2026 ENSO
michsnowfreak replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
As I highly suspected and noted weeks ago....with cold entrenched over the Great Lakes & northeast, we would undoubtedly hear more about warm anomalies elsewhere.
