michsnowfreak

Yeah but each year is different. The max in Jan this year was only 44. Toledo has hit 70 in Jan on a few different occasions (we had a crazy warm spell Jan 20-22, 1906, another strong nino) but it's still extremely rare.

Today will likely set a new monthly maximum, as the record is 70 in 2017/1999. Fun fact- the only month to not hit 70 is January. The warmest temperature is 67° on Jan 25, 1950, however many areas registered over 70 that day, including 72 at Ann Arbor. I suspect present day DTW would have as well. On the flip side, the only month not to have a temperature in the 30s is july, all time low being 42 on July 6, 1972. So theoretically, it is possible, though extremely unlikely, for someone in Southeast Michigan to be as cold as the 30s or as warm as the 70s any month of the year.

Yeah we have had 5 unusually mild winters the last 9 years here, so hoping that comes to an end. But again, the previous 9 winters before that were MUCH colder and featured record snowfall, so all patterns do change eventually. Whether or not we see that change begin next year, I have no clue. It would seem a few neutral years would help but ENSO wants to just go wild anymore lol. Like anyone, I'm always most worried about my backyard, and mild winters here are not an issue for getting snowfall. All out torch months like this winters Dec & Feb, along with poor storm tracks, are what ruins winter here.

After the wettest January on record, this will end up likely being one of the driest Februaries on record, unless we get a really good storm tonight. Thus far, there have only been a few measurable snowfalls, and no measurable rainfall in February.

Again that's just my observation locally. And while the 2015-16 nino certainly did herald in the end of the glory days era and an increase in warm/mild winters, it has not been all bad since then here. This winter is pretty much bottom of the barrel for here.

DTW went from 39° at 11pm 12/22/22 to 1° at 11am 12/23/22.

We had multiple winter weather advisories in January but no warnings. I believe a winter storm watch for something? But I really don't expect a severe thunderstorm watch out of this. We will see.

I had never really heard of ACE until recently. Is it something that we can put on par with things like NAO, PDO, etc? And how high does this year's ACE rank? I may have missed it earlier in the thread. What's ironic looking at the top 10 highest ACE years and following winters, the worst one here was 1995-96, and that was a product of being in a cold, dry screwzone. It was a cold winter, just a nightmare of missed snow chances. Most of the others were good winters, and nearly all had an abnormally snowy month (a common characteristic of ninas locally as well). But the best takeaway is that none of them were close to the widespread atrocity this winter was.

Nothing is ever a guarantee. But it's always a best bet to play the odds. Have their been dud la ninas here? Yes. But the overall odds favor a much better winter. And for the same Northwoods areas that are setting records for low snow in northern MN and northern MI this winter, the odds are even stronger for bountiful snow next winter. One trend that is quite strong here locally in a la nina, regardless of strength, is having one well above avg snow month. For some reason it's usually December or February. Ill defer analyzing New England to those familiar with the climo but I do feel that a handful of bad winters, which are a combination of both bad patterns AND bad luck, are jading things a bit. It was not that long ago that everyone from the Great Lakes to the New England was destroying climo with abundant snow seemingly no matter what the pattern was. Things do change and patterns don't last forever. Lastly, one rule I have always followed in weather. And I KNOW this is not popular among some. Is that when you have a great winter, or string of them, the odds increase that a stinker is coming up...and it works vice versa. It's gone on since the beginning of climate record.

Came up to a cabin in the Grayling area for a long weekend. As has been discussed to death, depressing to see brown ground state wide on the drive up. Hardly any snow but fortunately still a good frozen 3-5" here in the woods. In town its patchy. Looks like a trace at home overnight. Random fact- between having many good stretches at home and my annual "up north" winter trip, I have not had a winter where I have not seen snow depth in double digits since probably 2003-04 (started the annual north trips in 2007). This year, the deepest snow I have seen was 7" at home in January. Unless mother mature has a March trick up her sleeve lol.

Neutral is definitely fine. I just meant when el nino vs la nina...la nina ALL the way.

Record is 8 consecutive days in 2017. The most 50+ days in Feb: 12- 2017 11- 1976 9- 1880 9- 1882 8- 1930 8- 2000 8- 2018 8- 2023 7- 1984 6- 1932 6- 1938 6- 1954 6- 2016

Lake effect locations moving observation spots can make a huge difference, and should be noted in the local climate records. Marquette only has records to 1961, but it is in the snowiest location in that area. If they actually kept the records in the city of Marquette the snowfall would be much lower. Moving locations is usually a non issue in the longrun for non-lake belt spots though, snow wise.

Agree. We ALL did great during several big winters from the mid-2000s to mid-2010s, but the ones that are not region-wide blockbusters or region-wide stinkers tend to have pockets of good and bad snowwise, regardless of temperature departure. Prior to this winter, the previous 4 winters southeast Michigan overall did pretty average while ohio was well below (except '20-21). On the flip side I remember a few 1990s winters where cleveland did very well (at least partially thanks to the lake) and we did very meh.

This falls under the LONG long range, but it will be interesting to monitor the La Nina thread in the general weather forum. If and when the nina develops how strong it gets, if it is modoki, how active hurricane season is, etc. 2024-25 >>>>>>> 2023-24

Its not even a contest. Strong Ninos are the worst scenario here. Nina is a vast improvement.

The results are also good for Detroit. Current 1991-2020 avg: 45.0". Period of record avg: 41.0". Avg snowfall for the top 10 ACE: 44.5" Avg for the 9 MODOKI Ninas since 1950: 49.2" Avg for all 24 Ninas since 1950: 44.5" Avg for a strong NINO since 1950: 30.7" Avg for a strong NINA since 1950: 49.2" I should also note that the # of good winters outpaces the bad winters in Ninas, and the few dud snow years that kept the curve in the 40s-inches were good winters in other places, just not here.

Thats crazy. Does syracuse usually get a lot of LES? Looks like this is Cleveland and Erie's worst 10-year stretch since the 1920s-30s, but that stretch was worse. Ohio has been in quite a snow rut. You can include Toledo, as multiple events seem to diverse at the MI/OH line, esp the last two years (plus TOL is actually well south and west of the actual city, so I dont usually pay attention to that area, but the last 2 years have been crazy low).

Im headed to a cabin in Frederic for a 4-day weekend Fri-Mon. My yearly up north late winter trip. Since I started this annual trip in 2007 (go to a different place in either upper or northern lower MI each year) I cannot recall such a year without a winter up north. There should still be a few crusty inches left in Frederic, but parts of the keewenaw are bare. Depressing as that is, the northern wilderness is a nice getaway at anytime of the year. With the "law of averages/balancing" AND a la nina coming, Id just cut my losses on this year up north and get snow rakes and stuff while they are clearance, because they will need them next year

Exactly! I have estimated this winter with finish 4th warmest on record for Detroit, but the top 3 (1881-82, 1931-32, 1918-19) have remained comfortably on top for good reason.

Quite a diurnal spread today. After a low of 28F, DTW shot up to 61F.

LMAO. No. He literally has zero knowledge of any weather past or present in our region other than playing around on xmacis. The examples are countless, but he couldnt even tell you what happened last year, much less 10 years ago or 140 years ago. I was informed by his majesty that DTWs 37.1" of snow last winter was not representative of SE MI because Toledo Express Apt (70 miles SW of DTW) only had 14.3". Even though Ann Arbor 25 miles west had 51.6", & White Lake (40 miles north) had 44.7" and Flint 46.5". I really dont even think he has a genuine interest in CC, its obviously more an extremist agenda for him. We have a CC forum for this reason. Just like we have banter threads, general month threads, storm threads etc. In any of your other rants, you get on anyone citing a statistic, an average, or etc, letting them know that it is unacceptable to like winter and accept average. Yet you come to the defense of the most one-dimentional type of poster there is, nothing but numbers with zero explanation. Just confusing to me. What do I think of this winter? I think its been HORRIBLE!!! But two unusually warm winters in a row with a roaring pacific and this year a strong Nino is not going to suddenly be your new climate. There is a difference between weather and climate, and I dont think anyone on here denies global CC, so we shouldnt all have to put in a preface acknowledging CC anytime we want to make a post discussing WEATHER on a WEATHER forum. BTW, I know we did a little better here in MI, but its a crime to lump this winter in with every year since 2015. We have had some great months and one good harsh winter (17-18). Did we come down to earth from the snow blitz before that? Absolutely! Let me explain to you how averages work. Since 2015-16, Chicago has averaged 34.9" of snow the past 8 winters, which is about 2" below the longterm avg. The previous 8 winters before that Chicago averaged 50.9", about 14" above avg. No way in hell were they going to sustain that. And yes, I am aware you dont accept your average. Im just explaining.

Whats even funnier...is you can read newspaper articles from other historically warm winters (1881-82, 1889-90, 1918-19, 1931-32, 1982-83, etc) and they discuss the abnormal warmth, lack of snow, and "open" winter as they called them....and manage to actually discuss the oddities of the weather WITHOUT throwing CC into every (or any) sentence. Also, they do not plaster it as a front page spread contrary to what youve heard. I know as I have a subscription to view any daily newspaper since 1837. Oh, and btw, Detroits 3 warmest winters are 1881-82, 1931-32, & 1889-90. Stay tuned for TCC's expert analysis of why those records are wrong and shouldnt count

Fall is one of my favorite times of year, So yes, a 1963 type torch would disgust me. But a 2012 type of march is pretty much one of the only things in weather where you are just asking for agricultural disaster. For things to bloom so advanced so early, freeze damage risk is huge. Most fruit crops are grown in rural areas where temps plummet on cold nights. So let's say you have a frosty 31° on April 28th in Detroit. It's probably 22° at Joe Blows orchard. The only two times I know of when things bloomed so ungodly early were 1945 & 2012, and each saw ruined crops due to freeze.

I was talking specifically snow. The amount of snowfall and the number of large snowstorms during that timeframe I discussed FAR exceeded longterm averages. Again, to the point it was unlike anything in our period of record. While not as extreme, snowcover days were also comfortably above longterm averages. A winter with avg or slightly colder than avg temps and a lot of snow will absolutely seem more severe than a winter with well below avg temps and light snowfall. And with colder winters you run the risk of suppression and less snowfall. These last 2 winters were far warmer than average and absolutely not the norm. Snow climatology is a continually evolving thing, just like everything else in the weather. What happens in the coming winters all we can do is wait and see.