michsnowfreak

Since when does preferred weather make you sick in the head? I think its sick in the head to spend winter in a tropical climate, but I dont take to insults

Gray skies, sweater weather and fall feels in late may. No complaints here!

All good points. There is way, WAY too much focusing by some on how much a temp has risen at any given location than there is to the overall pattern. The snow season spans a minimum of half the year for most northern locations, same as it always has. The key is the pattern, the indices, the storm tracks, the available moisture. Its actually gotten comical how some have tried to push the record snow from a decade ago as being in the far distant past or in a different era.

I can't wait for one of those winters where the coldest anomalies on the globe spill into the US, giving a brutal winter and TCC and company will distraughtly be posting how warm it is elsewhere on the globe.

True. Hopefully the Pacific is more favorable.

Interesting. I have heard some hedge towards cold neutral and some warm neutral. For me, either is fine because anything from weak nino to weak nina usually can produce good winters. But since its so early, Im wondering what, if anything, we can put off the table? I remember in years past some were so hellbent for months on a strong Nino or nina but when it actually happened it was weak. So far, it seems to be nearly unanimous that a strong ENSO one way or the other isnt happening. Or at least thats the way Im reading into it haha. But what are the odds a strong or moderate event catches everyone off guard?

I dont disagree that its almost unheard of to get such a cold winter from such a strong Nino, but "if" we get a cold winter in the conus is such a ridiculous statement, unless you mead CONUS-WIDE. Obviously cold winters will happen. And to be honest, outside of the rarity that was the late 1970s, if you live in the east you would usually WANT the west to be warmer than avg. It would likely create a greater likelihood of some good storms.

You just dont stop. I know a met (used to post here, doesnt anymore like so many others) who worked for DTX from 1974-2010 and he always talked about the increasing UHI at DTW. You dont seem to understand that regardless of the surrounding area, when an airport expands and becomes a concrete jungle that it didnt used to be, it will affect particularly nighttime temps. Funny you didnt bring up Detroit City like you sometimes like to when it fits your theme. The avg min temp at DET is 1.0F warmer but at DTW it is 3.9F warmer for the two periods you unsurprisingly chose. But the max temp is identical at both- 2.4F warmer. Its been noted multiple times by people that actually live here and observer the weather how the lows at DTW were insane in the 1960s-70s compared to surrounding area. Although, as I recall, before you hijacked this thread and veered OT into your routine 1961-90 circle jerk, the conversation wasnt about temps, it was about snow (remember, you incorrectly said 1990s were "way" snowier). Why did you not include the snowfall for those same periods? I guess I will have to. No site changes or observation measurement changes at DTW or FNT (cant say for ARB). DTW snowfall 1961-1990: 41.5” 2001-2030: 45.8” FNT snowfall 1961-1990: 48.9” 2001-2030: 54.8” ARB snowfall 1961-1990: 42.3” 2001-2030: 60.8”

So youre thinking that means we are in for an ENSO neutral winter of some sort?

And here we go YET AGAIN highlighting the coldest stretch of winters on record. For starters, DTW wasnt even the official climate site for Detroit until 1966-67. It was so rural that as has been pointed out ENDLESS times it was often a cold spot in the region with amazing radiational cooling (similar to present day Ann Arbor)...its no longer the case. All you have to do is compare the difference in temps between DTW and several other sites from the 1960s/70s and then 2010s/20s and you will see the margin is much smaller now. But these assertions about '90s winters lately are just WILD to me. The 1990s winters were EASILY the worst decade of winters of my lifetime, both the warmest AND least snowy (2020s TBD). 1980s, 2000s, and 2010s were far superior - and guess what, 2020s are only half over. I will comment on them in 2030 when they are over and given the same playing field as the rest. As it stands now, of FULL decades, the warmest winters on record are the 1990s, followed by the 1950s then 1930s. AVG DJF WINTER TEMPS & annual snowfall - Detroit 1870s – 25.2 (*1874-79) 1880s – 27.6F - 43.1" 1890s – 26.5F - 42.7" 1900s – 24.9F - 46.3" 1910s – 25.5F - 39.7" 1920s – 25.8F - 46.1" 1930s – 28.3F - 32.9" 1940s – 27.0F - 27.8" 1950s – 28.6F - 37.8" 1960s – 26.2F - 31.8" 1970s – 24.8F - 45.6" 1980s – 25.9F - 45.2" 1990s – 29.2F - 37.9" 2000s – 27.7F - 45.3" 2010s – 28.2F - 49.9" 2020s – 30.5F - 35.5" (*only thru '24-25)

It is surprising esp since its only since 1970 but again, that is for the CONUS. Here, 1981-82, 2013-14 & 2014-15 all rank in Detroits all-time top 20 coldest winters (not just since 1970).

Highs in the 50s/lows in the 40s dominate the week here. Going to the Tigers game Friday, definitely hoodie weather. Should warm into the weekend to 60s/40s but no heat in sight.

Detroit Free Press

Oh trust me, Ive thought of that too. 12/31/1875: 65 / 46 01/01/1876: 65 / 41 01/02/1876: 62 / 38 But actually, the entire last third of Dec 1875 was very mild. The 20-day stretch from Dec 21, 1875 to Jan 9, 1876, using todays current 30-year norms, was +12.1F and is the warmest on record for that period, after nothing but record cold in 1875! Jan 1876 was the least snowy Jan on record with just 0.3", and then 3 snowstorms (4.1", 5.2", 9.0") hit the last third of March. Like I said, cant make up the weather! The Saturday, January 1, 1876 Detroit Free Press had a blurb about the weather under their "Sayings and Doings" column. And I love it because they were mocking the "oldest inhabitant" (back then, they always made fun of the "oldest inhabitants" for their weather insight whenever there was an anomalous weather event). Im sure it didnt actually hit 74, but tells you how warm it was.

Amen! Thank you! And snowfall is another thing too - there were many snowy winters of yesteryear....but many low snow, relatively bare ones too. The year to year changes of our weather in MI and how different they are, despite living in the epitome of a 4-seasons climate, is what initially drove my fascination in the weather. I began talking with DTX climate historian (now retired) Bill Deedler when I was in junior high. My actual observing of the weather soon followed, and weather boards & watching forecast models came later than that. The rhetoric of some that imply that everything always warms or snow goes down is a joke, and I think this is what leads to so much of the general public to mock cc, especially when its abnormally cold or snowy. With the cold weather we will be seeing the last third of May here, I can guarentee that social media posts on the unseasonable chill will be mocked with "so much for global warming". Climate has unfortunately become very political, like so much else. But Ill stick to weather. Back to the actual ENSO discussion, it would appear that anything from weak nino thru weak nina is on the table, but a lean towards cold neutral is likely. Im liking many of the early factors for a good winter for the Great Lakes next year, but obviously so much to iron out.

I am the exact same! I love discussing weather data past/present, dont really care about cc. It has its place in weather discussion, but constant derailment of threads is annoying. Im actually quite satisfied with my climate overall, so I dont really care what happens in other countries or what not. But when I see stats (my weather speciality) being twisted, I call things out. Or the fact that any below average temp period now has to have some unexpected reasoning behind it lol.

It was 2nd coldest, only 1903-04 was colder. However, it was the all-time coldest for avg min temp (10.2F). It was a brutally cold winter, and 1875 is the coldest year on record. The unseasonable cold was so impressive all throughout 1875 that not only is it the coldest year on record at Detroit, but it is a full 1.5F COLDER than the 2nd coldest year on record. Though records began in 1870, there is unofficial data dating to the 1830s and 1875 is the coldest. And wouldnt you know, that a big warm spell ended the year, so the record high for Dec 31st is 65F....set in 1875. Just gotta love weather stats!

1944-45 was a very cold white winter than suddenly turned into record warmth in March, starting vegetation a month early, then April and May frosts/freezes destroyed the fruit crops, similar to (if not worse than) 2012. Actual snowfall numbers and technicalities aside, here 1942-43, 1944-45 & 1947-48 were very white winters and 1941-42, 1943-44, & 1948-49 were very bare winters.

A frozen, white, cold winter...with below avg snow. With 89 days of 1"+ snowcover, only 1903-04, 1977-78, and 2013-14 had more. So very impressive in that regard. But the peak depth was only 5". A New Years ice storm left a frozen tundra for weeks. The total snowfall was just 28.4". No other winter on record had so much snowcover with so little snowfall. Ive seen some cool pics of the Dec 26, 1947 storm at NYC.

Loving the autumn-like weather this coming week!

I have looked into some of the eastern winters of the 1940s to compare to the meek ones we had here, and Id have to say its probably the most different of any decade. Those winters sucked here. But I think a lot of it was due to dry weather and bad luck. Though there were some mild winters in the 1940s, the decade was easily colder than either the 1930s or the 1950s. But it sucked for snow. It is by far Detroits least snowiest decade on record (avg 28.7"). We had 3 major ice storms but no memorable snowstorms. In terms of the WWII years, 1942-43 was the best winter of the decade. 1944-45 was cold and white but very dry. 1941-42 and 1943-44 were very bare winters overall.

The climate has never been "stable" here and many other places. Stable is a place like San Diego or Barrow. As a matter of fact, Ive yet to see a more erratic grouping of winters than we had from 1875-1882 (see bottom). Just because the globe is warmer than it was, the actual climate was anything but stable from 1880 to 1870 here. The year-to-year and decade-to-decade variability always has and always will exist. If there is to be any longterm significant change in snowfall in the Great Lakes region, we will need a lot more years of data to come. Winter avg temp at Detroit (current avg is 28.4F for reference): 1874-75: 19.1F 1875-76: 31.0F 1876-77: 23.5F 1877-78: 31.5F 1878-79: 21.8F 1879-80: 32.5F 1880-81: 21.8F 1881-82: 37.0F (warmest on record to this day)

Its cherry picking because its a short time span. You realize that if any of the next several winters have above avg snowfall that regression line goes right back up at those places.

Yeah I wasnt denying the magnitude of March 2012, just for which areas were hardest hit. I think the duration of the cold in Feb 2015 was what was so impressive, not any individual number. Jan 2019 and even Jan 2024 had very impressive arctic blasts in areas which created some real low temps at places, but the months themselves were nothing impressive from a mean temp standpoint.