michsnowfreak

If I had to pick between a nino and nina, its nina all day everyday here so Im fine with them being more frequent. That said, ENSO episodes have proven multiple times the past few decades that they dont always behave according to expectation. It does seem that ninos and ninas are kind of suffocating "neutral" years and making them few and far between.

Snowing at the Tigers game

Some aspects were el nino-esque, but not all. There was more sustained winter than youd expect up here in a nino (although some weak ninos are very wintry). Weve heard multiple times in previous years, and imo it was true in 2019-20 & 2022-23, that the total snowfall was misleading for the winter, making it look better than it was. Well, I have to say that 2024-25 was the first winter since 2014-15 where the winter was actually better than the snowfall number would indicate.

I definitely see why they did it, but I like night games better. That really screws up people who have tickets.

I always say, whenever people say that in January, that its way too soon. But by the time March came around and the pattern turned milder, it became a very realistic "goal" for MLI. I can honestly say ive fortunately never been close to that situation...but if I was, id be super pissy and still root for an April snowstorm to ruin it. MLI will also finish with the 3rd least amount of days with 1"+ snowcover- 17 days (this ties with 1921-22 & 1943-44). The 2 winters that had less were 1927-28 (16 days) and 1986-87 (8 days).

Yeah thats more accurate! If no more measurable snow falls, Detroit will finish with 60% of avg snowfall (using 1991-2020 averages....if using longterm avg, it would be 66% of avg). There is a threat of snow this coming week however. With such widespread snowfall deficits (similar to last decade when we would see widespread snowfall surpluses), you know its going to change soon. Hopefully with an improving Pacific it will be a stormier winter in '25-26.

I enjoy any snow, but Id still prefer March snow because often times here we can still be very wintry in March. Yes you still have the sun angle concerns, but it can still be like mid-winter. April snow comes and goes quickly. As to the bolded, that was very common here as well, particularly from the 1930s-1950s, but in almost any decade you can find mild, lackluster winters where March saved the day. Most recently, it would be 2022-23.

JB has always had his cold/snowy bias, but he hasnt been relevant in years. I dont think anyone actually takes him seriously anymore lol. Following anyone (whether its via weather forums, twitter, social media weather pages, etc) with a long enough posting history makes it pretty easy to see who has the cold biases, who has the warm biases, and who is very neutral/unbiased. I follow the neutral guys closely and dismiss the rest.

This map wouldve been better IMO if they had % of avg snowfall instead of just a simple departure, because average snowfall over this huge of a region is all over the place. Also, just to point out, with the colder than avg temp departures of this winter in many places, we heard some point out that the latest 30-year averages are warmer than long term. Well, for many areas in the northern half of this map, especially around the Great Lakes, the latest 30-year snow averages are higher than longterm avg (and I believe they are lower than longterm in some of the southern reaches of the map).

When did you hit the point where you rooted the futility? Just crazy how MLI got skipped all winter. Not that it was particularly snowy ANYWHERE in the region outside the belts, but 8.2" is insane. Goes without saying theyll have a better winter in '25-26.

I have two friends in the UK. They are constantly amazed at our extremes. A cold summer here would still be oppressively hot there, and a warm winter here would be frigid there. An average summer in Detroit is 7° warmer than London, and an average winter in Detroit is nearly 16° colder than London.

Do you HONESTLY enjoy summer in Texas? My cousin has a relative in Texas (lived there for decades) and they absolutely hate summer.

I hope not lol. That's what's good about summer here. We get oppressive heat and humidity but it's nowhere near as long as so many other areas to our south and there are usually refreshing reprieves. Have lakes and rivers everywhere helps too.

Yup, same here. I think the token mild winter of '97-98 is what cemented into my minds what a Nino and Nina and their strengths should do. As Ive said tho, with each passing year Im reminded more and more that ENSO, while important, is just one piece of the puzzle. Because lets face it, we all are interested in whats going to happen and how it happens, but at the end of the day the sensible weather in our backyards is what counts most. 2002-03 and 1951-52 were excellent moderate ninos here.

Interesting, thanks! Big kudos to these threads. I learn a lot from them. Ive been a climate expert in my own area since I was a teenager, and as an adult Ive even developed enough to have a minor in other areas climate . But actually forecasting whats going to happen, I have always been clueless outside of looking at face value on models. The info is also helpful to figure out if any of the odd quirks/trends of recent seasons are related to certain factors or just coincidence. Nov-Dec: Why is winter starting early like always with cold blasts & snow in November (often flakes in Oct) then slamming the brakes in December? 6 of the last 11 years have seen November outsnow December. That should not happen. Only 4 of the past 11 Christmases were white (we usually run 50/50). Jan-Feb: The meat of winter is where we thrive. Longterm warming of these two months has been negligible with January nearly non-existent, and snowfall has never averaged higher than the most recent 30-year norms. We can bank on bouts of deep winter and usually some impressive cold blast to plunge us below zero. Mar-Apr: Why does winter want to suddenly scram following a Feb snow blitz, then come back for an encore in April? 3 consecutive years (2020-2022) saw April outsnow March. Again, that shouldnt happen. And May flakes and late frosts/freezes continue as well.

I had a total 24 hour rainfall of 1.83" (and a T of snow/sleet). DTW had 2.28" (and a T of snow/sleet). Very heavy rain for a time overnight. Nothing remotely close to severe. Mine was broken up as 0.84" in the morning round and 0.99" overnight, while DTW saw 0.77" in morning round and 1.51" overnight. This was the largest 24-hour rainfall at DTW since August 24, 2023 & the largest in Wyandotte since July 10, 2024. Another story was the temps. The morning rain, which began as snow and mixed at times with sleet, came with temps hovering at 34-35F, miserable to say the least. Temps very slowly inched up into the 40s by nightfall, then rapidly rose from 49F to 64F in 1.5 hour around midnight. This is also where DST comes into play. Technically the temp at DTW was 49 at 11pm, 54 at 12am, and 62 at 12:59am, so 62 is yesterdays high. However, from March til November (until we fall back again), the daily temps that go into the climate are actually 1am - 12:59am, not 12-11:59pm. Always thought that was stupid but it is what it is.

Lol theres nowhere near 5 months of summer in MI. Summer weather can span the course of 5 months, just as winter weather can span the course of 7 months...but it isnt constant. Realistically, you can count on a solid 3 months of summer and 4 months winter in southern MI and about 2 months summer and 5 months winter in northern MI. Regardless, it is a fantastic state for 4 seasons.

Thanks guys! It will be something I'll be watching and trying to learn as summer goes on. Plenty of deep winter this year, but hopefully if the Pacific becomes favorable we can get more winter storms with some meat on their bones.

Same here! A low monthly range (warmest 45, coldest 11) and warmer mins and very gray, even more gray than usual. The avg high was +1.9F but the avg low +5.3F, and being the coldest month of the year, it was still cold, just not the deep winter feel most of Jan 2025 was.

Actually, when it comes to El Nino, strong is what I detest hearing. Im fine with weak El Nino, and in fact, often times the word El Nino scares people more than it should. Some very wintry winters in the weak Nino category since 1950.... 1969-70, 1976-77, 1977-78, 2004-04, 2014-15. The only really awful winter I can find as a weak Nino was 1952-53. But more important than anything, we have really learned over the past multiple ENSO episodes that the standard "rules" of what to expect do not always apply.

For you Pacific experts..as we progress through the warm months, when do we start to look for signs (not in models, but in actual real-time) that the Pacific is looking like it will be "favorable" or "unfavorable" for the next cold season. I always hear so much talk about it and obviously its only one piece of the puzzle, but its a piece I am clueless about.

From an enso perspective thats already a decent sign...but as we know Enso is just 1 piece of the puzzle.

It was fairly similar here temp wise, but as always snow is always a wild card. Biggest difference here was January was mild in 2021 and cold in 2025 2020-21 vs 2024-25 at Detroit Nov: +4.5 +5.3 ** 3.5” 1.8” Dec: +1.6 +2.2 ** 9.6” 3.6” Jan: +3.5 -2.8 ** 6.4” 8.9” Feb: -4.7 -1.9 ** 21.8” 12.2” Mar: +5.7 +6.0 ** T 0.4” Apr: +1.7 ? ** 3.6” ?

Started as snow here around 7am, just a trace, then quickly turned to rain which at times mixed with sleet, and now some thunder. Temps in the mid-30s.

Jokes aside, everything here was dormant and end-of-winter brown until 2 or 3 days before the end of March then like the snap of a finger the grass got green. Obviously still brown with all the bare trees, tho some have buds.