michsnowfreak

A slight car coating of freezing drizzle this morning, and now some snow dust from Lake Huron. This is how cold/dry patterns work in the Great Lakes outside the snowbelt. Since Nov 28th, a period of 40 days, Detroit has seen snowflakes fall on 25 of those 40 days...with 5.8" to show for it.

Any individual area may be cynical and skeptical until they see results, but its certainly not a stretch to see how the aforementioned changes in the pattern would give the northern stream a more active look.

Exactly. Other than quickly checking totals or pics, what interest would we have in the storm? To be honest, Ive seen posts from a few users I didnt even recognize (in the impacted areas). I dont see people from STL or Cincy taking an interest in Chicago-Detroit snowstorms, nor would I expect them to.

The signal is definitely there on all the ensembles and weeklies. The issue in the short term is the cold and zzzz pattern that's frustrating snow lovers and the fact that any impulses/systems that DO occur in the meantime will have very poor run to run consistency on timing, location, etc.

Congrats to you both on your health!!!!

See I have no problem with others liking what they like, and it's a no brainer that everyone likes different things. The reason we have this discussion is your hyperbole posts and stating incorrect facts. See what I bolded as an example. You haven't even spent much time in the area in recent winters per your own admission. There's no way Detroit saw 14" snow depth? Actually there were several days over a foot region wide in Feb 2021. Feb 16, 2021 snow depth Detroit- 14" Flint- 13" Ann Arbor- 13" Toledo- 17"

So nice to see the word active lol

Way too early. Just something to watch. I don't need a huge storm at this point. Just a few inches of synoptic snow. Don't forget these some northern stream likely too.

Fingers toes and balls crossed.

Active is all I ask for. I don't care about temps as long as it doesn't torch. The northern US is in zzzzz city right now. We are getting lots of flakes and gray skies but just a dusting here and there (and LES sublimates fast). Only the belts are getting more persistent snow bands. Most of the rest of the upper midwest is sunny and cold.

It's wild to see how lake effect snow sublimated with temps so cold. After 0.6" of fluff yesterday I currently only have specs of white on the ground. Cold and dry with some flakes looks to continue.

Definitely a long shot. We all know very well that maps don't produce snow, mother nature does.

True. You liking the 2nd half of Jan for a more active Lakes and Northeast? The law of averages, and CPC, would seem to think so.

I know you predicted a warm January, but some of these posts are REALLLY stretching it. Even if the cold is not as extreme as it first seemed, and even if it does ease, there's absolutely NOTHING showing a "warm" or "very warm" January.

Locked with little deviation? For those of us out of the game we dont watch as closely, but for individual details there has been plenty of the usual deviation.

Obviously weeklies aren't good for anything remotely resembling a forecast (short term models have a tough enough time with that) but I must say I'm loving the look of week 3 (Jan 20-27). The dead of winter + below average temps + above avg precip.

Elevation and banding was perfect for you and northern oakland NYE. Most of SE MI has a dusting on the ground. Our 0.6 today was our largest since Dec 23. It has settled some.

It's possible. And again. No one likes to hear it. But it is early. Could still get into a good stormy pattern. But right now lake effect and hopefully a weak clipper or two will be all we get the next few weeks.

It is early obviously. Time will tell. But yes.

Obviously places here and there always stand out, especially a few lake effect snow locations this year (Gaylord and Sault Ste Marie, MI), but as a whole, snowfall is down in a huge majority of the country. Lots of flakes but not much to show for it here. I am at 6.2" on the season with my largest fall so far 1.5" (Detroit area). Its a bad pattern for almost all of the upper midwest, lakes, and new england. I am ALWAYS beating the drum that pattern/systems are more important than temps, and this pattern is a great example why. Undoubtedly better times lie ahead this winter...but they cant get here soon enough.

Outside of whatever happens to our south with this weekends system, its just a terrible storm pattern for everyone. I guess I should be happy to see the lake flakes considering many folks in MN, WI, New England wont see anything. Looks like the next synoptic thing to watch will be next weekend with a clipper diving south. Periods of lake effect snow and clippers certainly cant be ruled out in the NW flow, in fact some disturbances will be likely, but they will be hard to pinpoint more than a few days out and all should be minor. REALLY need to a more active pattern after mid-Jan.

2020-21 and 2021-22 were fine. Both had excellent stretches. And 2022-23 had 2 storms with thundersnow and an ice storm. IMO, only last winter truly sucked. The whole thing is getting tiresome. Sometimes liking what you like OR stating facts, doesnt matter, damned if you do and damned if you dont. Bottom line - here are the facts. The last 5 winters (2019-20 thru 2023-24) BOTH Detroit and Flint each saw 6 storms of 6"+ and both saw peak snow depths in those 5 years of 14". Avg snowfall the past 5 winters was 39.3" at Detroit and 48.3" at Flint. Great winters? No. As bad as some act like? NO.

0.6" of fluffy snow this morning, mostly lake effect. Nice fluffy flakes at times. Weve now pennied our way to 6.2" on the season with the largest fall so far 1.5".

Interesting read! Sounds good to me.

That's a mid-Atlantic thing wrt strong nino. It usually increases their chance of a big winter storm. Strong ninos are never good here. I braced for the worst and hoped for the best but last winter was the lowest expectations I ever have going into a winter. Other than last winter, it hasn't been bad here for snow-lovers. We are far enough removed from the record snow years of 2007-2015 than an average snow season shouldn't be considered "bad" imo.