michsnowfreak

Winter wonderland outside with a fast start. Already over an inch.

Very quickly have gone to big fluffy flakes. Great start, didnt even plan on snow til 4pm. Forecast of 2-4" looks solid, and if these ratios hold should end up on the higher end.

Light snow has begun.

Patterns do persist for periods of time, but changing patterns, trough positions, etc are not mumbo jumbo. It's meteorology. The pattern absolutely will undergo multiple changes before springtime. Whether it's favorable or unfavorable to any one area remains to be seen.

Since Feb 2018, Atlanta has had a total of 0.6" of snow. To say they were due is an understatement.

I knew it was bad almost everywhere in the north, but didnt realize it was that bad in spots. As a casual browser from another region, I dont really know where everyone is so I always go by the first order stations for snow totals lol. Someone posted in the Lakes forum that theres an area of southern IA that has not had measurable snow yet this season, and we have a poster who lives on the Lake Superior shore near Duluth, MN and has bare ground. Im at 6.3" on the season but most of it has been small lake amounts, so Im doing cartwheels at our 2-4" forecast of some actual synoptic snow. Hopefully you get an inch or so out of the system even as it shears moving east. Pattern clearly looks better going forward for northern locales. I know people think it sounds like a broken record, but it really does.

I dont think Atl actually got 5" based on obs. Though they do have white ground. Im definitely not trying to rub salt in the wound, but is your sig up to date with only 2" on the season?

Honestly, 2-4" of synoptic snow with very cold temps and very frozen ground is not a bad call at all. Not sure about IWX, but GRR issues an advisory anytime a lake squall is possible, and it often looks silly. Then they will stick with an advisory when an actual storm rolls through with 4-7" lol.

Winter weather advisory for 2-4". Finally some synoptic powder!

That would be an interesting and very doable hybrid lol

The torch was certainly impressive. But it was essentially a 10 day warm spell in a 6 month stretch where below normal temperatures dominated, including some cold records. Easily the most recent extended cold period we've had.

I have mostly great memories of Feb 2018 here. The first half of the month was deep, deep winter with only the last week seeing a torch/bare ground. The warmth that gets talked about in Feb 2018 was much more extreme to the south (not at all uncommon in a Nina). Wonder if something similar happens this Feb?

Definitely potential down the road. January finishes cold, no doubt. But will this be a month where below normal temps are accompanied by below normal snow, or people look at their monthly total on 1/31 and laugh at how cynical they were early in the month?

Obviously temps will be cold...but wondering if its more of a fluffy powder or a sugary powder?

I wouldn't be worried about an op gfs run 10+ days out, that's for sure.

Chicago is bound to get something soon.

I noticed that. Will worry about that when the time comes, but a muted southeast ridge could be a good thing for those in the north, including snow starved new England. But that's so far in the future and there's a ton more cold coming, so I'll believe any big time warmup when I see it. We've been getting daily mood flakes and dustings that sublimate so the ground has remained mostly bare so its really frozen solid. Finally have some synoptic snow coming so took the Christmas decorations down outside and couldn't get a few of the stakes out of the ground lol.

Finally looking good for some synoptic snow here. Should see 2 inches or so Friday, more lake showers saturday, then a clipper Monday. Will be nice to lay down a blanket of snow onto the frozen ground as these daily mood flakes and dustings sublimate quickly in the cold dry air.

The clipper signal for Monday has been on the models/ensembles for days now, but qpf nothing crazy. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

Midatlantic had no winter til yesterday lol

Definitely sublimation. We've seen it all week long with dusting that mostly disappear on the frozen ground.

This line always cracks me up too. I mean, it was kind of true last year, but no other year have I seen it like that. Cold and dry is still winter. Milder wet heavy snowstorms are still winter. At least IMO. It may not be the perfect winter, but its still winter.

I never understand the competition aspect of things, especially when areas that get way less snow than I do cash in. Its in a weather weenies blood i guess, but why would I worry about what someone else is getting? Do I worry about their weather when Im getting snow? No.

Actually some sun today. Dusted up 0.1" of snow yesterday, 0.8" on the month and 6.3" on season but its all lake dust that sublimates like crazy. Ground is rock hard frozen. Absolutely thrilled at the prospect of some synoptic snow Friday.

Just trying to give you a heads up, again I know you arent from the area. but if you want to just ride the "nothing will change" card, thats cool too.