michsnowfreak

2019-20 thru 2021-22 came out as close to average as you can get here. Last winter was below average but nothing crazy. This year certainly seems ripe for a much larger negative departure but again, I hate discussing stuff like this in a matter of fact way considering we have 2 more months that we can get snowfall. Some lean snowfall years were practically a given. I would write the script a lot differently. Personally, I'd prefer a cold and dry winter if we're gonna do low snowfall (then maybe we'll have good snowcover). But most areas racked up such an excess of snow from the 2000s to mid-2010s that it would be an unrealistic dream to have that continue, and one would expect the 30-year rise in avg snowfall to level back off a bit.

As I've noted before, the disparity in snowfall the past several winters between SE Michigan & NW Ohio has been greater than is usual. That's just going by a lot of visuals many storms, another thing is Toledo's measurements are taken well south and West of the actual city, so it's probably even worse than the city itself the past several years. It seems that's usually the case in the real mild winters. The difference in colder winters is much less and every once in a while Toledo can even beat Detroit.

That is only thru mid-Feb last year, but its easily overdone in all of southern MI. Flint averages 52.0” 2019-20: 53.7” 2020-21: 48.6” 2021-22: 60.5” 2022-23: 46.5” 4-year cumulative +1.3” Detroit averages 45.0” 2019-20: 43.7” 2020-21: 44.9” 2021-22: 47.1” 2022-23: 37.1” 4-year cumulative -7.2” Grand Rapids averages 77.2” 2019-20: 53.5” 2020-21: 46.1” 2021-22: 71.0” 2022-23: 110.7” 4-year cumulative -27.5”

Exactly. Where and when has Missouri even seen 2 feet of snow lol? Kansas City has not seen a 12"+ snowfall since 1962, and although St. Louis saw one in 2013, they have never in recorded history seen a snowfall drop 16" or more, and only once (1912) had a storm drop over 14". If we are going to play it this way, let me count the storms where someone in the Detroit area got 14-18" in a storm (Jan 1/2, 1999, Dec 11/12, 2000, Jan 22, 2005, Jan 1, 2008, Jan 5/6, 2014, Feb 1/2, 2015, Nov 21, 2015). That list grows if you count any one over a foot. And yes, the lake enhancement is absolutely a factor why Chicago outdoes Detroit in the EXTREMELY RARE monster storms (and Detroit outdoes Chicago in 6-10" storms). Look at just west of Chicago to Rockford, IL. Their biggest storm of all time was 16.3" in 1918 (less than Detroit saw in 2015). The only time they have eclipsed a foot in modern times is 2011 (14.3") and prior to that, the last storm of a foot was in 1948. Again, talking ONE foot, not two. If the only thing in weather you want to see is something thats a once or twice in a lifetime event, and everything else is nothing, then weather is not the hobby for you lol.

One of the "fortunate" products of a slightly warmer winter climate has been an increase in precip and snowfall. When I look at the top 10 least snowy winters for Detroit, 5 of them were terrible, mild non-winters almost everywhere, but the other 5 can be blamed on terrible luck and the warm & wet to cold, dry & suppressed pattern.

Some popcorn snow squalls today. Been a while since we have had these type where snow varies literally every few yards. Some areas had whiteouts, others just flurries. I received 0.2" in Wyandotte. Looking at freeway webcams earlier was crazy. The SW of DTW there was nothing and NW of DTW easily 1-1.5". I drove a straight west-east road for a 5-mile stretch and saw it go from dusting to inch back to dusting in that 5 miles. Very airy fluff, settling/evaporating in the cold wind.

Congrats central Ohio. Of course I'm jealous it didn't hit further north, but it's well deserved!

Cumulative. For consecutive, the top 5 longest streaks consecutive days 1"+ snowcover are: 1.) 81 days - Dec 12, 1903 - Mar 1, 1904 2.) 77 days - Dec 31, 2013 - Mar 17, 2014 3.) 73 days - Dec 11, 1944 - Feb 21, 1945 3.) 73 days - Jan 1, 1978 - Mar 14, 1978 5.) 72 days - Jan 8, 1912 - Mar 19, 1912 Top 5 longest streaks consecutive days T+ snowcover 1.) 119 days - Nov 25, 1903 - Mar 22, 1904 2.) 110 days - Dec 9, 2013 - Mar 28, 2014 3.) 109 days - Dec 6, 1977 - Mar 25, 1978 4.) 101 days - Nov 30, 1919 - Mar 9, 1920 4.) 101 days - Dec 6, 1962 - Mar 16, 1963

I broke down Modoki La Ninas at Detroit, since Ive heard it may be Modoki. But I also want to look at 1st year Nina and Nino-Nina transitions to look for any trends. Main trend I see is, for a change, December is our friend. MODOKI LA NINAS Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Tot 1973–1974 0 0.1 16.4 14.1 11.2 5.7 1.7 0 49.2 1975–1976 0 6.5 19.8 15.1 4.9 7.5 2.1 0 55.9 1983–1984 0 3.5 19.9 9.9 8.7 9.7 0.1 0 51.8 1988–1989 T 1.0 6.3 5.3 9.6 2.4 0.5 T 25.1 1998–1999 0 0 1.2 27.3 7.8 13.2 0 0 49.5 2000–2001 T 1.3 25.1 3.4 2.9 5.4 0.9 0 39.0 2008–2009 0 2.2 21.4 25.2 8.5 1.0 7.4 0 65.7 2010–2011 0 T 9.3 17.9 31.7 8.6 1.6 0 69.1 2016–2017 0 0.1 16.8 11.8 2.2 6.9 0.1 0 37.9 Avg 0 1.6 15.1 14.4 9.7 6.7 1.6 0 49.2 1991-20 avg T 1.9 8.9 13.9 12.2 6.2 1.5 0 45.0

Houghton has never been whats considered a 1st-order station. You can never trust any of that data. Marquette didnt become a 1st order station until 1961.

The UP is a different ballgame, especially with their lake belts, terrain, etc, but for Detroit, if you REALLY want futility, everything has to go wrong, not just some things. Some examples would be a warm, wet Nino that turns cold, dry & suppressed. Or a wall to wall warm winter where the cold shots have little snow with them. Its futility for a reason. Anytime we get an undesirable winter, people talk futility. And its way worse after being spoiled rotton with a parade of record snow seasons from the mid-2000s to mid-2010s. Look at this season as a whole. December was horrible...doesnt mean Oct/Nov snow doesnt count. Yeah, winter was largely confined to 2 weeks in January. But we had a parade of snows, one after the other. It wasnt just a little 1 inch snow followed by 10 days of brutal cold. Plow drivers were putting in 100-hour weeks in that 10-day spell. That all count. Yesterdays snow didnt last a full day. It counts. And so does whatever happens the rest of the way.

DTW is at 21.8", so if not another flake fell it would only be #11 as well. And we all know with 2 more months of snow potential that is extremely unlikely. Terrible as the winter has been, we were not gonna run futility with a stretch like the one we saw in January.

Knowing Easter is March 31st this year, I joked with my mom as we handed out candy to trick or treaters through snow squalls, that with a snowy Halloween, we would have no snow on Christmas and a white Easter. One down...one to go.

I was born in May 1983 & never knew that!

Hope you overperform tonight. Indiana/Ohio have definitely been screwed, but dont leave our sub! I mentioned not long ago that there has been an unusual disparity between Detroit & Toledo many, many times since 2015-16. Ive seen countless systems where its as if Mother Nature makes the state line of MI and OH/IN her rain/snow line. Historically, Detroit averages 8" more per year than Toledo, but the last 8 years its been 15" more per year. Things even out eventually, so I have no doubt some good times for IN and OH are coming. What better place to start than a La Nina next winter?

Yesterday was one of the weirdest I can recall. My ring camera records a daily timelapse and it was crazy. bare to instant white which then melted off. I am putting the cart before the horse because every day counts and you know damn well it can snow through April. But this winter will rank much worse in snowcover than snowfall lists here. To-date, Detroit has only seen 28 days with a Trace or more on the ground. Keep in mind, a T snow depth is either a dusting (0.4 or less) or patches/skiffs of old snow. So a T of snow depth is not a blanket of snow, and while the observer in me is certainly anal about putting 0 when 0 and T when T, the better metric for snowcover IMO is days with 1"+. Plus its a much easier metric to track over the period of record. And to date, Detroit has only seen 18 days with 1"+ on the ground. The peak snow depth was 7", which is not bad. But the amount of days in total is horrible. The yearly average is 49 days, the all-time low being 10 days (1936-37) & high 96 days (2013-14). *note- I only have snowcover since 1906, although Id estimate the true all-time low is either 1881-82 or 1889-90. Ive estimated about 8 days probably for 1881-82 and only maybe 5 days in 1889-90.

Funny you mention 2002-03. I was born in 1983, so that was my 20th winter, and at that time, it was my favorite! I recorded 66.9" of snow, the snowiest of my life to date. DTW had 60.9". Growing up in mostly subpar 90s winters, 2002-03 was a huge shock for me. And I agree with Liberty, it IS underrated, even by my own self, because while it really took the spotlight, it was quickly overshadowed by 2004-05, 2007-08, 2008-09, 2010-11, 2013-14. As for great/crappy winters, Ive noticed that being in eastern MI it can really go either way, which is why though I primarily frequent the lakes forum, I often pop into New England/NYC as well to read discussions (& comment when I feel like it lol). During a particularly good (or bad) winter in the midwest, we can either be on the eastern fringe of that pattern and blend in with the rest of the midwest, OR we can more mimick the eastern pattern and differ from the rest of the midwest (2002-03 & 2004-05 are good examples of this). The same for the east, we can be on the western fringe of that pattern & more closely mimick the east, or we could blend in with the rest of the midwest. Plus add in the unknown of the lake influence. We are not in the lake belt, but we do get influence from the lake in terms of enhancing some shortwaves and of course SOME pure lake effect. So really, sometimes Michigan feels like its own region for weather. I decided to look at the top 30 snowiest/least snowy winters for both Detroit & Boston since the overall snow average is very similar (both are at all time highs in the last 30-year record period, which will likely go down some the next one). While the snow climo is similar, Boston can be a bit more feast or famine. Its not as comprehensive as analyzing every winter, but it definitely goes to show the variety. DTW POR avg (1880-2023)- 40.9” --- 1991-2020 avg- 45.0” BOS POR avg (1890-2023)- 42.7” --- 1991-2020 avg- 49.2” Low snow winters that made BOTH Detroit & Bostons bottom 30: 1918-19: DTW #4 (15.2”) – BOS #19 (21.1”) 1931-32: DTW #24 (26.2”) – BOS #13 (18.4”) 1936-37: DTW #1 (12.9”) – BOS #1 (9.0”) 1941-42: DTW #16 (23.4”) – BOS #25 (23.9”) 1954-55: DTW #30 (27.3”) – BOS #28 (25.1”) 1979-80: DTW #28 (26.9”) – BOS #5 (12.5”) 1988-89: DTW #20 (25.1”) – BOS #8 (15.5”) 1997-98: DTW #16 (23.4”) – BOS #29 (25.6”) 1999-00: DTW #18 (23.7”) – BOS #26 (24.4”) 2011-12: DTW #23 (26.0”) – BOS #2 (9.3”) Snowy winters that made BOTH Detroit & Bostons top 30: 1892-93: DTW #18 (59.9”) – BOS #15 (66.0”) 1898-99: DTW #17 (60.2”) – BOS #12 (70.9”) 1903-04: DTW #21 (57.0”) – BOS #11 (72.9”) 1922-23: DTW #22 (56.9”) – BOS #16 (65.9”) 1977-78: DTW #13 (61.7”) – BOS #6 (85.1”) 1981-82: DTW #4 (74.0”) – BOS #22 (61.8”) 1992-93: DTW #29 (52.2”) – BOS #7 (83.9”) 2002-03: DTW #15 (60.9”) – BOS #12 (70.9”) 2004-05: DTW #11 (63.8”) – BOS #5 (86.6”) 2008-09: DTW #10 (65.7”) – BOS #16 (65.9”) 2010-11: DTW #6 (69.1”) – BOS #8 (81.0”) 2013-14: DTW #1 (94.9”) – BOS #28 (58.9”) 2017-18: DTW #14 (61.0”) – BOS #26 (59.9”) Winters that made the top or bottom 30 on OPPOSITE LISTS for Detroit & Boston 1899-00: DTW #6 most (69.1”) – BOS #28 least (25.0”) 1944-45: DTW #21 least (25.8”) – BOS #27 most (59.2”) 1947-48: DTW #26 least (26.6”) – BOS #4 most (89.2”) 1960-61: DTW #9 least (18.0”) – BOS #23 most (61.5”) 1985-86: DTW #27 most (54.2”) – BOS #13 least (18.1”)

What a wild day. The wind is howling now and all the snow is gone except where people shoveled.

Different story here. Liberty is correct in that most Nina's following ninos are decent snow wise. There are some exceptions, but the majority are decent. In fact, of the ones you listed, the only clunker snow seasons here were 1954-55 and 1995-96.

I guess it's jumping way ahead, but snowy Winters in the great lakes and upper midwest are common in la nina's. And with an active storm track we certainly don't need a cold winter, just not the crap we had most of this winter.

Well, you've had your easing in, next winter, you can leave that crap down south

Oh wow I didn't realize you were still that low. Have you kept track of how many days you've had snow on the ground?

See down here you would have loved it lol. Blinding snow, 2 inches fell in one hour and then throughout the day it melted. I expected nothing to be honest, so it was awesome to see. But it doesn't matter how good or bad the winter is, how much or little snow we have, I HATE watching snow melt. I know Beavis hears me on that.

The winter post mortem will be interesting to analyze the entire snow season. goes without saying that mean result SUCKS, but there have been some interesting quirks.

35 dbz on radar. This was a steve snow. Blinding heavy snow followed promptly by melting. It's nearly all gone now.