michsnowfreak

I've been to the rockies and they are beautiful, but I love going to the UP in Winter. Not to mention it is cheaper lol

This has already felt like an East Coast Winter of sorts. We had a big snowstorm in November when 8 to 12" fell in metro Detroit, and since then very little. Obviously on paper we still had far more flakes and dustings than a typical East Coast Winter, but the overall feel is the same. Id prefer my more steady dose of 1-3/2-4/3-6 snows anytime over a big storm followed by zzzz. I agree that 1 massive storm does not make a great Winter, however the irony is there used to be quite a contingent of people in this region on this forum who disliked our gray winters full of nuisance snow after nuisance snow, and instead preferred one huge storm then nothing (or so they said). You would think that moving forward if any pattern was conducive of a big dog, it's this one, with se ridge pumping warm air to our south and east and the cold building to the north and west. Certainly not saying its happening, just saying the chances are probably better than usual. I do feel it turns much colder later in January into February, hopefully we get into one of our good old cold clipper regimes. It will be very refreshing to see the complaints change to those of suppression

No doubt there will probably be fluke events, but as you said, pointless than expecting anything until it's 2 days or less out. The models seem extra up-and-down this year. Once the ridge starts moving further East, it seems as if the Great Lakes are in a bit of a battle zone, do you think that bodes well for a possible big winter storm?

Thanks for the update. For a bit now I've been kind of feeling that it was going to be a repeat of last year with the mild holding until late January when it turns much colder, and then last in to February. No doubt some will luck into some snow during the mild period, but it will not be fun times and the weather boards until the last third of the month lol

I do think that later January into February will be wintry, plus the UP already has good snow. I will be going up there in February as usual.

There's so much left of this Winter though, very hard to dictate if it's going to end up being a big stinker or not. We have luckily been able to avoid the huge sucky years, outside of 2011-12, so hopefully we keep on keeping on. The stat guy I am I has a new idea now lol, I'm going to try and look up what were the suckiest back-to-back winters.

Considering up to yesterday all that was showing for the weekend was rain and no snow, I will consider any snow a plus.. I feel that this entire month is going to be full of weather surprises and disappointments.

Saturday may still produce some snow, which actually kind of snuck up just the other day lol.

That's how it almost always is & not just with big dogs. The stuff that is tracked for a long time usually underwhelmed, and the good stuff often sneaks up..

Just so I'm not confused, which storms are you referring to? There's a lot of activity on the models for different days.

Jokes aside of the model changes every 6 hours, you have to like where we sit going forward in January rather than being South, and those north/northwest of us like where they ait more than us. Gut says February will be more of a suppression/clipper month.

This is an excellent post. I am one of those who does not mind cold and dry at all IF, and IF being the key word, there's a nice snowpack in place. I was one of those crazies taking a Winter walk last year in 40 below Windchills. That said, obviously a stormy scenario is the preference. And what everyone has to remember as we get deeper into Winter, January and February being our harshest Winter months, is that when we look at the long range maps we don't necessarily want to see a sea of dark blues over us. That may be something the mid Atlantic wants, but not the Great Lakes. Ready to roll the dice and see how January plays out, but after a very boring stretch of December I'm sure most are happy to hear that active looks to be on the table.

January seems to potentially be more active than December was. I think those of us far enough North still see plenty of snow chances however it does appear to be a milder than average month. Really starting to think that those calling for a back loaded Winter are correct, where February is the harshest Winter month for the Eastern half of the country and it's another late Spring.

Battle zones work out, but only for whos on the good side lol

A La Nina like pattern, should that actually be what develops (everyone has to remember, the models and mets have been over the place), can actually produce heavier than average snowfall in total but less in the way of sustained Winter for the southern Great Lakes.

Once we get this weekend out of the way, I'd sure there will be plenty more chances. Near to slightly above average temperatures in January and February are more than enough for lots of snow. The issue, of course will be timing storms and storminess. Then again, the weeklies have performed bad, so everyone will probably be best to take everything one week at a time.

Larry Cosgrove seems to like January in the Midwest. I like the European model weeklies with its "washed out cold" look between January 1 and 23 covering much of the nation. In terms of snowfall potential (again keeping in mind the active storm track....), this looks like a superb set-up for the Great Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes to see important snow (and some ice as well). The Rocky Mountain ski resorts should also do well as disturbances move into teh trough and set up cases of upslope flow or moisture advection from the western Gulf of Mexico. Winter will get here, folks, just give it time. But the Interstate 95 cities will probably have to wait a little longer.

The Midwest got such a head start on the snow season that it will be virtually impossible to set futility records the season.

Agree. If anything our snowfall is increasing overall. If you want constant cold thats fine but youre asking for suppression. I love winter so i (and beavis) would be fine with that as long as theres decent snowcover and clippers, but i think most here would prefer to take their chances of thaws for bigger storms.

November was almost 6° colder than avg and December to date is running less than 1° above avg. You are talking as if it's been a nonstop torch with no end in sight. To answer your question, Feb 1st if there's been no more cold and nothing in sight, then its time to give up on that. Snow wise, we literally have 4 more months of measurable snow potential and as we head towards the dead of winter even mild temps can yield good snow. Bottom line, barring torching, as we head into winter storminess is more of a concern than it being cold enough to snow

As a snowcover lover id enjoy Minneapolis, most years at least (i know they had some stinkers recently), but they really do not get much more snow than southeast MI. If i would ever move for snow it would be (i likely wouldnt) it would have to be a huge increase. I lol'd at that line "unfortunately weve found good friends and stability in chicago". And i love the relativeness of everything. I always know its a beavis post when im scrolling thru paragraph after paragraph. Its interesting that in beavis eyes chicago doesnt have winter but has summer every day every year of summer. Chicago averages 85 days where highs are in the 30s or colder (46 of them below freezing) and 69 days where its 80 or warmer (just 16 of them 90+). Also, Chicago averages 118 days a year with a temp below freezing. A summer day with a high of 72 is summer but a winter day with a high of 34 isnt winter. Got it. I would love to see the heat miser equivalent of beavis go at it in a debate on chicago has no summer vs chicago has no winter lmao. Chicago had a white halloween and i hope they get a white Easter too, just because.

No thanks. Plenty of winter fun ahead. I am wondering if its a repeat of last winter in terms of false cold on the models to open January and the cold held off til mid January then winter was here (for the most part) from mid Jan to mid Mar.

That all depends how far into Spring Winter lasts lol. November should not be discarded, that was literally as wintry is it can possibly get at this latitude at that time of year for that long. In fact, the irony of this entire thing is if November and December had been swapped, we would think nothing of it.

Last Winter was not anything special in the snow department, but I cannot believe how many ice storms we had in the Detroit area. We never get ice storms and we had 3 or 4 last year. The late January historic cold snap is absolutely something engrained in my memory, but it will be the only thing i remember from that Winter years down the road, everything else was forgettable, especially with so many heavy snow records set the past 20 years. With a snowy November and another late Spring, it definitely seemed like a long Winter, however for most of December into the 1st half of January, Winter was a no show except for the usual mood flakes. The 2017-18 Winter was a much much much snowier Winter here in Detroit. In the UP however, last Winter was epic for snowpack, even more so epic when you consider it was wiped out before Christmas in most spots. Last Winter I finished with just 31.9" of snow, which I'm not complaining about because we can let the spotlight go elsewhere sometimes, but I have noticed that even though we are part of the Midwest, usually what's good for the Western Midwest ismt great for us and what's great for us sucks for the Western Midwest lol. I got 62.5" of snow of the Winter before when much of the Midwest thought it was a blah Winter

Theyve had several storms but i didnt realize any location was having one of their snowiest.