michsnowfreak

January seems to potentially be more active than December was. I think those of us far enough North still see plenty of snow chances however it does appear to be a milder than average month. Really starting to think that those calling for a back loaded Winter are correct, where February is the harshest Winter month for the Eastern half of the country and it's another late Spring.

Dont have top 30 handy for Detroit, but since 2000 the top 20 (since 1880) has 7 in the top 20 snowiest (actually top 16)...#s1, 5, 7, 10, 11, 15, 16) and just in the bottom 20, and barely at that (#18).

I disagree. A running curve of winter temps at Detroit have remained stagnant since 1930 (other seasons have showed some degree of warming) and snowfall has increased....substantially. Avg snowfall 2008-18 at Detroit was 54", over a foot over longterm norm. But only time will tell so lets not get OT.

Actually id say the opositte. Most areas of this subforum have seen an increase, not decrease in snowfall the past 2 decades. Some a substantial increase.

Ever since Spring of 2012, every winter warm spell we have some bring up an 11-12 redux. And it has not happened since. This Winter may not be the Winter we all wanted, but I doubt it will be that bad. I could literally name hundreds of Winter warm spells over the past 140 years, many worse than the one we just went through. To me, an 11-12 redux needs to have a torchy November (could not have been more opposite this year) and a very early warm Spring. Things look OK going forward for those North of I 80. 2012 did have an OK amount of Winter from mid January to mid February, but even that was so so. Everything on either side of that month long block sucked.

Actually thinking the decade opens with a bit of snow on the ground, should the models be correct for New Year's Eve. Other than that, looks like a mild 1st week and then colder 2nd week. Rain and snow chances totally up in the air at this point though it does look to be more active January then December was.

Battle zones work out, but only for whos on the good side lol

A La Nina like pattern, should that actually be what develops (everyone has to remember, the models and mets have been over the place), can actually produce heavier than average snowfall in total but less in the way of sustained Winter for the southern Great Lakes.

Once we get this weekend out of the way, I'd sure there will be plenty more chances. Near to slightly above average temperatures in January and February are more than enough for lots of snow. The issue, of course will be timing storms and storminess. Then again, the weeklies have performed bad, so everyone will probably be best to take everything one week at a time.

Larry Cosgrove seems to like January in the Midwest. I like the European model weeklies with its "washed out cold" look between January 1 and 23 covering much of the nation. In terms of snowfall potential (again keeping in mind the active storm track....), this looks like a superb set-up for the Great Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes to see important snow (and some ice as well). The Rocky Mountain ski resorts should also do well as disturbances move into teh trough and set up cases of upslope flow or moisture advection from the western Gulf of Mexico. Winter will get here, folks, just give it time. But the Interstate 95 cities will probably have to wait a little longer.

The Midwest got such a head start on the snow season that it will be virtually impossible to set futility records the season.

Agree. If anything our snowfall is increasing overall. If you want constant cold thats fine but youre asking for suppression. I love winter so i (and beavis) would be fine with that as long as theres decent snowcover and clippers, but i think most here would prefer to take their chances of thaws for bigger storms.

November was almost 6° colder than avg and December to date is running less than 1° above avg. You are talking as if it's been a nonstop torch with no end in sight. To answer your question, Feb 1st if there's been no more cold and nothing in sight, then its time to give up on that. Snow wise, we literally have 4 more months of measurable snow potential and as we head towards the dead of winter even mild temps can yield good snow. Bottom line, barring torching, as we head into winter storminess is more of a concern than it being cold enough to snow

As a snowcover lover id enjoy Minneapolis, most years at least (i know they had some stinkers recently), but they really do not get much more snow than southeast MI. If i would ever move for snow it would be (i likely wouldnt) it would have to be a huge increase. I lol'd at that line "unfortunately weve found good friends and stability in chicago". And i love the relativeness of everything. I always know its a beavis post when im scrolling thru paragraph after paragraph. Its interesting that in beavis eyes chicago doesnt have winter but has summer every day every year of summer. Chicago averages 85 days where highs are in the 30s or colder (46 of them below freezing) and 69 days where its 80 or warmer (just 16 of them 90+). Also, Chicago averages 118 days a year with a temp below freezing. A summer day with a high of 72 is summer but a winter day with a high of 34 isnt winter. Got it. I would love to see the heat miser equivalent of beavis go at it in a debate on chicago has no summer vs chicago has no winter lmao. Chicago had a white halloween and i hope they get a white Easter too, just because.

No thanks. Plenty of winter fun ahead. I am wondering if its a repeat of last winter in terms of false cold on the models to open January and the cold held off til mid January then winter was here (for the most part) from mid Jan to mid Mar.

That all depends how far into Spring Winter lasts lol. November should not be discarded, that was literally as wintry is it can possibly get at this latitude at that time of year for that long. In fact, the irony of this entire thing is if November and December had been swapped, we would think nothing of it.

Last Winter was not anything special in the snow department, but I cannot believe how many ice storms we had in the Detroit area. We never get ice storms and we had 3 or 4 last year. The late January historic cold snap is absolutely something engrained in my memory, but it will be the only thing i remember from that Winter years down the road, everything else was forgettable, especially with so many heavy snow records set the past 20 years. With a snowy November and another late Spring, it definitely seemed like a long Winter, however for most of December into the 1st half of January, Winter was a no show except for the usual mood flakes. The 2017-18 Winter was a much much much snowier Winter here in Detroit. In the UP however, last Winter was epic for snowpack, even more so epic when you consider it was wiped out before Christmas in most spots. Last Winter I finished with just 31.9" of snow, which I'm not complaining about because we can let the spotlight go elsewhere sometimes, but I have noticed that even though we are part of the Midwest, usually what's good for the Western Midwest ismt great for us and what's great for us sucks for the Western Midwest lol. I got 62.5" of snow of the Winter before when much of the Midwest thought it was a blah Winter

Theyve had several storms but i didnt realize any location was having one of their snowiest.

Even if you take away that huge storm the 2015 Winter was full of clippers and snow cover, which I would take in a heartbeat.

I would say it's equal chances. The long range is nothing more than laughs, at least from an operational standpoint. Ensembles can be good for changes in patterns, but actual op runs are worthless. Speaking of ensembles, it does appear that much colder weather is on tap as we start the New Year. I've heard a couple people cite 2014-15, and I could certainly take a Winter like that.

Beavis has beat this horse so many times, I feel like we always go round and round with the same discussion. The bottom line, Chicago/Detroit have more winter than 80% of the country, and yes, that winter is much much less severe than the far North. Bo lives in a Winter Haven. It's like a snow orgasm. I go up North every winter for a trip and I absolutely LOVE it. The scenery is gorgeous and the snow depth is insane. And I love snow more than anyone I know. Would I want to live there? Absolutely not. I am much more like Buckeye from aspect of needing civilization and to make a nice living. If anything, opposite of beavis thoughts, I feel very fortunate to live in a place that does have decent winters. This December and its lack of snow is not normal, but neither was the cold and heavy snow of November. But over all, I will take my climate and economy over the beauty but desolation/economic depression of much of the far North. To each their own, and I am sure better times lie ahead for us all the remainder of Winter. Saturday is the first official day of astronomical winter.

2010s winters were leaps, bounds, and miles better than 1990s winters in Southeast Michigan.

I did not realize we were in a nino December lol. Yes those generally do suck

I think January will be a good month, but i have my doubts about the rest of December.

Euro was way too dry with the November 11th snowstorm out this way, then again most models were.