michsnowfreak

Excellent analysis OHweather. Keeping hopes alive for a wintry Feb. And as for snow climo, tomorrow is the climatological halfway point of the snow season at Detroit. Half of the snow should have fallen, with half to come, so we pretty much are right at the midpoint now. As has been said, weve done fine from a snowfall total perspective, but not from a sustained winter one.

One last thing Ill say on the subject, is that lake effect snow here, far outside the belts, growing up, always meant lots of flurries and the occasional snow shower where you might get lucky and dust up a few tenths. However, the past decade or so we have seen multiple les bands drop snow in inches, not tenths, into southeast MI. They happen almost yearly, including a few crazy instances of 6"+ (I have not been lucky enough to be in those bands lol). I N-E-V-E-R saw LES of that "magnitude" make it to this portion of the state when I was a kid (Ive been a weather watcher since the age of 11 or so, ie, early to mid-1990s). FYI, heres average seasonal snowfall & snowcover per decade at Detroit & Chicago, 2 Great Lakes cities outside the belts and on opposite sides of Lake MI. DECADAL SNOWFALL AND 1”+ SNOWCOVER DAYS DETROIT CHICAGO 2010s 49.9” 53 days 42.7” 44 days 2000s 45.3” 51 days 38.5” 45 days 1990s 37.9” 37 days 33.5” 36 days 1980s 45.2” 47 days 38.1” 45 days 1970s 45.6” 57 days 55.6” 56 days 1960s 31.8” 57 days 44.6” 48 days 1950s 37.8” 47 days 38.2” 38 days 1940s 27.8” 48 days 33.7” 42 days 1930s 32.9” 44 days 30.9” 32 days 1920s 46.1” 49 days 27.3” 32 days 1910s 39.6” 59 days 31.2” 49 days 1900s 46.3” 36.6” 1890s 43.2” 1880s: 43.1” As for the belts, Ill be on Lake Superior in Munising Feb 16-19, so BRING IT!

I certainly hope it changes for the better for all of us. What i do find encouraging for the remaining 3 months of the potential snow season is that we have now locally 4 very unusually moisture laden storms this cold season. Nov 11/12 (hvy snow) Dec 28/29 (hvy rain) Jan 10-12 (hvy rain, ended as ice/snow) Jan 18 (hvy snow, ended as ice/rain) It would not be uncommon to see just one such storm (moisture wise) the entire winter season, and weve seen 4 at the halfway point. Again, all of this does not mean good will happen. Just as a cold pattern does not guarantee good clippers (which would be our savior in a suppresion pattern). This is FAR from the winter of my dreams, but locally it could certainly be worse, so what else can you do but take your chances moving forward?

Im not the best with indicies...all i know is if it remains active in the dead of winter and there's no torch (which there is not), can easily have more snow fun.

The ensembles have once again returned to a colder pattern beginning in early Feb. Lets see if this time sticks. I do like how it looks to remain active, might as well try and luck into another nice snowstorm lol.

It would be a lot of work to get all the data, too bad we dont have climo experts in the area. As far as measurment techniques, i remember years ago i asked a local met about the every 6 hours method and he stated that its been in place as long as he can remember (1960s) but for first order stations the practice has been in place as long as is remembered. However If a lake belt location only measured once a day that would definitely show up as less, as so much of their snow is super fluffy. So what you would need to do is look at a first order station. Coops will have more errors and variance. Another way to do it is to look at daily snow depth.

Snowfall is absolutely increasing in the Great Lakes. Detroit just finished its snowiest decade on record, and without all the numbers in front of me I imagine most of the Lake belts did as well.

You may start feb in single digits for snow. But dont count on your lowest temp already having been set. Probably another late spring.

Agree. Also, if anything our winters are getting longer because we seem to be getting earlier and later snowfalls now, regardless of what happens in between. A longer Winter is not necessarily a better Winter, and vice versa, as obviously the meat of Winter is what is most important. 2015-16 and 2016-17 were back-to-back warm winters (though we surprisingly managed to do OK with snowfall), which followed back-to-back brutally cold winters in 2013-14 and 14-15. 2013-14 was the most severe Winter on record here.

January 1950 was one of the most roller coaster month you will ever see in the lakes, though it certainly leaned on the warm side.

Not very warm lol (other than op euro), but much milder than it was looking. The mildness appears to be brief however with these models you can't guess on anything.

Bastardi is a joke. I will say tho that the suffering of mid dec to mid jan appears over, at least here.

God i hope not...65-66 was terrible here. Although jokes aside, the long range after next weekend's brief mild up is back to cold on all models, which naturally is to be taken with a grain of salt

I agree!!! Thanks!

This is so perfectly said. I always get a kick out of people acting like the Southern Great Lakes or midwest is a bad Winter climate when it really is Wintrier than most places. I think the fact that we do get snow so relatively frequently is what makes a true snowlover thirst for more, and knowing the massive amounts of snow that fall just to our North is tempting. However as someone who goes up North every year (going to Munising Feb 16 - 19), I can definitely tell you that every time I go up there I have an awesome time but I could NEVER live in that isolation. Plus much of the rural north is several decades behind the times.

It looks like it's averaged a bit warmer in Buffalo than here, but still it's been very mild since the 3rd week of December. Neither December or January will show up in the all time warm lists because of the cooler start to December in what looks like a cold end to January. But I'm sure if you take an intra month 30 day period, it's up there. But i always believe the heart of Winter is mid January to mid February, I never consider mid December to mid January the "heart" of Winter. As for rarity, February 2015 is in a very elite minority group (much like march 2012), I have to say this mild stretch does not come close to it, at least here.

Not so sure about that, it appears the cold will be widespread.

It goes without saying that cold & active would be the preference, however, even cold, dry and clippery is a massive improvement over what we've had in December and January. After a nice bout of sustained Winter in November, it's been nothing but fleeting cold shots and brief periods of snow which quickly melted. So now that the light is at the end of the tunnel, I am counting down the days lol.

CFS has colder than normal weeks 3, 4, 5, 6 with normal to above normal precipitation. If only its partially correct, some fun times lol

I welcome a cold clippery pattern. Bring it. Thanks for the analysis, we have very few mets in this subforum. Please keep us updated in the coming days and weeks as well!

Obviously all the attention is on this weekends storm, but I must say, the long range is starting to look better and better per ensembles (& CFS, tho CFS has been hinting at this for a while). Bring on some more sustained winter, something we have not seen since November. Since then its been brief bouts, ie, yesterday at this time it was in the low 40s, now there is an inch of snow on the ground with temps in the low 20s and wind chills in the single digits, but tomorrow temps will rise to 40 again. Ensembles also look quite active. Hopefully fun times ahead for us all, so sticking with my call of more sustained winter late Jan into Feb.

I plan on doing Munising this year in Feb.

The 1st 2 to 3 weeks of January have looked hostile for some time now, so that's not going to change. We still may sneak in some storms in that timeframe however, and I do feel it does turn more favorable later in January and into February. That said, don't be surprised if a 9" snowstorm ends up being the largest of the Winter regardless of how snowy of a period you end up getting.

One thing I've learned is that Winter's come a while they may have things in common with other winters, are like snowflakes. No 2 are the same. There were certainly a trio of harsh winters in the late 1970s, but as the whole, we've seen everything. I noticed that 1950s winters in the Great Lakes tended to have November and March snowstorms and often lots of mild spells during the heart of actual Winter.

Lol nah, it really has not rained much is just been boring.