michsnowfreak

I do think that later January into February will be wintry, plus the UP already has good snow. I will be going up there in February as usual.

I just ran those calculations myself. I used this website. http://xmacis.rcc-acis.org It is an excellent tool for climate data, you can look up all the climate data for your local area. For official stations, it will say "Detroit area", that means it keeps up with when the official site moves places. Otherwise you can also search by individual station of course.

The past 2 decades have averaged almost 16" more per season at Detroit than during its mid 20th century low point in the climate record (1930-1969). In fact most places saw mild winters with less snow than long term averages during the 1930s-50s ( Detroit's problem in the 1960s was lots of misses, the Winters turned colder with better snow cover than the prior 30 years). As you would expect, with the increase in snowfall, there have been some more impressive snow depths as well. We would need to start having a string of low snow seasons to start lowering our average back down to the long term average, and a whole lot of stinkers to get to the low point of the mid 20th century. If we manage to ever hit that point, which seems extremely unlikely now, then we need to lose another 14 or 15" annually to become St Louis. In other words, not worried about that in my lifetime lol.

I disagree 100%. The thought of Detroit/Chicago becoming St Louis is laughable. Detroit consistently averages 6-8F colder than STL which means Chicago colder than that (DTW gets slight modification from Lake MI). Detroit just saw its snowiest decade on record, and records go to the 1870s. With snowfall on an Increasing trend and temps holding relatively steady, I have a hard time believing my snowfall is going to decrease 65% and my temps warm 7F or 8F in a decade or two Please see below for the decadal snow averages for Detroit, St Louis, and Memphis. The 1960s stick out like a sore, snowy thumb in Memphis, and the just completed 2010s averaged snowier than the 1920s, 1930s, 1940s, 1950s, 1990s, and 2000s in Memphis. Comparing trends to the cold and/or snowy winters of the 1960s/1970s which were the exception, not the rule, at nearly all locations, is like me holding 2013-14 to the standard of being a "decent" winter. S N O W F A L L Detroit - St Louis - Memphis 1890s – 42.7” - 18.6” - 9.0” 1900s – 46.3” - 20.5” - 3.8” 1910s – 39.7” - 25.7” - 8.5” 1920s – 46.1” - 13.1” - 2.9” 1930s – 32.9” - MM - 2.8” 1940s – 27.6” - 16.9” - 2.1” 1950s – 37.8” - 12.9” - 2.8” 1960s – 31.8” - 20.6” - 9.2” 1970s – 45.6” - 26.3” - 4.7” 1980s – 45.2” - 21.0” - 5.6” 1990s – 37.2” - 17.3” - 1.8” 2000s – 45.5” - 16.3” - 3.0” 2010s – 49.9” - 18.0” - 3.1” For reference, here are DJF TEMPS Detroit - St Louis - Memphis 1880s: 27.2 - 33.2 – 42.4 1890s: 26.9 - 35.0 – 43.9 1900s: 25.1 - 33.3 – 42.5 1910s: 25.5 - 33.1 – 42.2 1920s: 26.7 - 34.9 – 44.0 1930s: 28.1 - 34.6 – 44.6 1940s: 27.0 - 33.1 – 42.1 1950s: 28.5 - 34.8 – 44.0 1960s: 26.5 - 31.6 – 40.8 1970s: 24.6 - 30.5 – 41.8 1980s: 26.3 - 32.9 – 42.4 1990s: 28.7 - 35.4 – 44.5 2000s: 27.8 - 34.8 – 43.9 2010s: 28.2 - 35.1 – 44.1

Knowing that 2013-14 was the severest winter on record for Detroit, I had to look up Chicago, as while December here was the "wimpiest" of the 3 winter months it was still wintry. Chicago had a mean temp in Dec of 2013 of 23.3, which is 4.4° below avg. THAT is obnoxiously mild?

There's so much left of this Winter though, very hard to dictate if it's going to end up being a big stinker or not. We have luckily been able to avoid the huge sucky years, outside of 2011-12, so hopefully we keep on keeping on. The stat guy I am I has a new idea now lol, I'm going to try and look up what were the suckiest back-to-back winters.

Considering up to yesterday all that was showing for the weekend was rain and no snow, I will consider any snow a plus.. I feel that this entire month is going to be full of weather surprises and disappointments.

Saturday may still produce some snow, which actually kind of snuck up just the other day lol.

13th coldest November and 18th warmest December. (Also the 4th snowiest November and 21st least snowy December).

That's how it almost always is & not just with big dogs. The stuff that is tracked for a long time usually underwhelmed, and the good stuff often sneaks up..

Just so I'm not confused, which storms are you referring to? There's a lot of activity on the models for different days.

Jokes aside of the model changes every 6 hours, you have to like where we sit going forward in January rather than being South, and those north/northwest of us like where they ait more than us. Gut says February will be more of a suppression/clipper month.

I was going to say, 8 days without Sun is the 4th longest stretch on record? My oh my lol Michigan says hold my faygo.

This is an excellent post. I am one of those who does not mind cold and dry at all IF, and IF being the key word, there's a nice snowpack in place. I was one of those crazies taking a Winter walk last year in 40 below Windchills. That said, obviously a stormy scenario is the preference. And what everyone has to remember as we get deeper into Winter, January and February being our harshest Winter months, is that when we look at the long range maps we don't necessarily want to see a sea of dark blues over us. That may be something the mid Atlantic wants, but not the Great Lakes. Ready to roll the dice and see how January plays out, but after a very boring stretch of December I'm sure most are happy to hear that active looks to be on the table.

Not surprisingly, the 2010s ended up as the snowiest decade on record for Detroit! Average snowfall per decade: 1880s- 45.5” 1890s- 42.7” 1900s- 46.3” 1910s- 39.7” 1920s- 46.1” 1930s- 32.9” 1940s- 27.6” 1950s- 37.8” 1960s- 31.8” 1970s- 45.6” 1980s- 45.2” 1990s- 37.2” 2000s- 45.3” 2010s- 49.9”

Happy New Year to you! And yes, let January start where November left off lol.

Detroit never had trouble breaking 10", it was the 12" barrier lol. And yes, they did that with a 16.7" storm.

They put out a public twitter vote, I dont have twitter so couldnt vote, but the public was right there with me on their #1!!! Top Ten Southeast Michigan Weather Events for the 2010s (Voted by the Public) Place Event 1 Winter 2013-14 Cold and Snowy Winter (Harshest on record using the AWSSI Scale) 2 August 11, 2014 Metro Detroit Floods (Nearly $1.8 billion in damages, the most in damage for any weather event in the state's history) 3 January 29-February 1, 2019 Arctic Outbreak 4 March 8, 2017 High Wind (About 1 million homes and business without power in Lower Michigan) 5 2019 Record High Water Levels on the Great Lakes 6 December 21-22, 2013 Ice Storm (nearly 400,000 homes without power statewide from Grand Rapids to Flint to the Thumb) 7 February 1, 2015 Snowstorm (Detroit's third heaviest snowstorm) 8 March 15, 2012 Tornadoes including the EF3 Dexter Tornado 9 November 11, 2019 Veteran's Day Snowstorm April 13-15, 2018 Ice Storm (500,000+ power outages Top Ten Southeast Michigan Weather Events for the 2010s (Voted by NWS Detroit/Pontiac) Place Event 1 August 11, 2014 Metro Detroit Floods (Nearly $1.8 billion in damages, the most in damage for any weather event in the state's History) 2 March 8, 2017 High Wind (About 1 million homes and business without power in Lower Michigan) 3 Winter 2013-14 Cold and Snowy Winter (Harshest on record using the AWSSI Scale) 4 2019 Record High Water Levels on the Great Lakes 5 March 2012 Heat Wave (greatest departure from average for any month in Southeast Michigan history) 6 March 15, 2012 Tornadoes including the EF3 Dexter Tornado 7 October 29-30, 2012 Hurricane Sandy Great Lakes Storm 8 February 2015 Cold (Top two or three coldest months on record for all three climate sites) 9 February 1, 2015 Snowstorm (Detroit's third heaviest snowstorm) 10 December 21-22, 2013 Ice Storm (nearly 400,000 homes without power statewide from Grand Rapids to Flint to the Thumb)

Picked up an inch of snow yesterday morning, But with the relatively low water content and warm ground quite a bit of it ended up sucking back into the ground throughout the day before other 0.3" fell in the evening for a total fall of 1.3". Monthly total 2.6", season to date 11.7". DTW also saw 1.3", bringing the monthly 2.7", which actually misses the top 20 least snowy December's (#20 is 2.6"), and season to date 12.2". Most areas to my immediate North and South saw more snow, but I guess if you're going to be in the screw hole of a local snowfall, it might as well be a small one that's going to melt in 2 days lol. December ended as 18th warmest Dec on record, on the heals of the 13th coldest November on record. As much as I love December because I'm a big Christmas fan, glad to turn the page to a new month.

How much?

Already some light snow falling, well ahead of schedule. It will be interesting to see how much Lake Michigan enhances that band of snow as it moves across the state.

Looking forward to a snowy New Year's Eve tomorrow. Based on my estimation, this will end up being the 18th warmest December on record for Detroit, on the heels of the 13th coldest November on record.

January seems to potentially be more active than December was. I think those of us far enough North still see plenty of snow chances however it does appear to be a milder than average month. Really starting to think that those calling for a back loaded Winter are correct, where February is the harshest Winter month for the Eastern half of the country and it's another late Spring.

It's funny that you mention that because I was thinking about how often over the last couple years it seems that you are talking about very wet snow events. What's funny is down here, much of our snow has been powdery for many years running now. We get the occasional wet snow but there is no doubt about it, powdery and fluffy snow far outnumber wet in recent years. Last year we had more ice than I can ever recall in a single Winter but other than that freezing rain has not been that common either. What it probably is but these storms that are tracking way North and screwing pretty much e everyone but you are squeezing out the cement for you lol

Dont have top 30 handy for Detroit, but since 2000 the top 20 (since 1880) has 7 in the top 20 snowiest (actually top 16)...#s1, 5, 7, 10, 11, 15, 16) and just in the bottom 20, and barely at that (#18).