michsnowfreak

1983-84 was a weak nina, as this year is forecast to be. I don't see how it's such a stretch.

In addition to the large dose of caution (as ALL things in weather forecasting should be taken with), my understanding of the NAO has really changed over the years. For those of us north of 40N, a +NAO is just as good, if not better, than a -NAO for actual storms and such.

I agree. Only because Im one of those who goes into Christmas mode November 1st lol. The 2006 Tigers practiced on the offday (Oct 12, 2006) between game 2 & 3 of ALCS in heavy snow showers.

My favorite snowstorm is the Superbowl Storm of 2015. Seems like the Superbowl gets later and later lol.

Detroit saw near avg snowfall both winters. 1949-50 saw 42.8" & 1950-51 saw 42.2". Whats interesting though is the 1940s-50s saw lower snowfall than the longterm avg, so both of those winters, while avg in the longterm, were slightly above avg for those decades. 1949-50 saw a warm Dec/Jan and cold Feb/Mar. Jan 25, 1950 holds as the warmest Jan temp on record (67F). But the ups and downs of the winter were insane, esp in Jan. 1950-51 was a more typical winter.

Especially when they come from a source only interested in warm trolling.

Just curious. Are there any similarities to the 1949-50 nina? What strength was that? Very mild overall and it's not a winter I'd want to revisit, but has always fascinated me with its wild swings. Honestly not sure I've ever heard of another winter like that in terms of ups and downs.

Mentioned something similar yesterday, but this is exactly what I foresee for here. My "gut instincts" are not based on indices, rather on enso state and local climate history & how recent climate trends tend to affect this area. ~I suspect 1 month will end up colder than normal. ~I almost certainly expect wild swings. That has been a Nina mainstay since records began, and certainly has remained true in recent years. Just to throw out a number for DTW, I can see DJF having a max of 65° and min of -12°. ~I expect periods of excitement and frustration, with lots of busts (both good and bad). ~If the model consensus of above avg precip comes to fruition, you can bet the house that there will be some good winter storms in the lakes, and lots of events overall. Storm tracks and rain/snow lines especially will likely cause some weenie meltdowns for folks who will end up with an above avg snow season. (Fun fact...im mild mannered and rarely have meltdowns. Yet my biggest one ever was Jan 1, 2008 when I got insanely screwed. A winter that I finished with 78.2" of snow).

Throwing out an early guess for my area I'd go with a DJF mean of 0° to +2° and snowfall 100-125% of avg. Expecting lots of variability.

Abundant rain and little extreme heat made for a good lush summer before we went dry in September. I'm wondering how much effect this recent dry weather really will have on colors. I do see some trees with dry leaves falling but also see lots of others starting to color like normal.

I doubt it would be solid +NAO. Probably up and down.

To be honest, Id welcome a warmer version of the late 1970s with open arms. That could easily produce even better winters here than the 1970s.

Hot damn! Bring on the late 1970s.

Quite honestly, many if not most online have biases of warm or cold. They definitely have knowledge, but look for ways to twist something warm or cold.

I would definitely take the 1970s over 1950s winters lol

Thanks. I always take seasonal models with a huge grain of salt. They may be off a little or a lot, they won't be exact. It's fun to play the guessing game until showtime.

Doesn't the aleutian ridge bring troughing to the east half of the country?

Not sure but I doubt it. Its hard to determine "drought" when looking at old weather records. For instance, we are talking drought in SE MI after several very dry weeks but much of the area had way above avg summer rainfall. So imo Its hard to call this a drought for here.

Oh definitely. Even some warmer and/or strong nino winters are very long with unseasobable cold/snow very early and late sandwiching unseasonable warmth during actual winter. Since warm winters are still "cold", that translates to a long, cold gray time for those sun worshipping winter haters.

Regarding ninos...weak and moderate ninos, while hit and miss, can definitely give us some decent winters. It is the strong nino that is the absolute kiss of death. The predictability of "what kind of winter will it be" is definitely easier with strong nino than any other enso state. Of course we still get snow and cold snaps, but the end result is always going to come up on the below avg snow side. Most winters here are usually filled with many snow events so when the east coast gets slammed, of course I'm jealous but it's just like "oh well it's their turn". But I would have probably threw a fit in 1958 or 1983 lol.

I know. Theres no mistaking going from basically the best winter period of record (2007-15) to a warmer regime since. But 17-18, 18-19, 20-21, 21-22 were definitely not "warm" winters here. Again though, dont look into it too much..I was merely referencing it in terms of the Sept to winter correlation, not in terms of analyzing specific anamolies. The NE has definitely ran warmer than their norms than here for whatever reason, not sure if the ocean plays a part or not. Also want to clarify nothing is ever set in stone and there are easily examples that contradict this....but theres more than enough data to support the "trend" of early winter blasts teasing us in the Fall of what will be a sucky Nino winter, and also warm Indian summer breezes during Nina falls before the bottom drops out by December. Obviously we are 2 different climates. Its always baffled me how you guys in much warmer, further south climes root on strong Ninos when that is 1000% the WORST winters (for winter lovers) we get here.

All 9 winters have NOT been warmer than avg in the midwest/upper midwest though.

1961-90 are the coldest (for winter) 30-year period dataset in many areas of the Great Lakes since records began. But I think bluewave missed my point. I only used Canada as an example. I guess I should have been more blunt. Warm Fall/Cold Winter (Nina) and Cold Fall/Warm Winter (Nino) are a common combination in the north, so implying a September pattern of ANY kind as a sign for winter is imo ridiculous.

Dry Falls and Wet (& snowy) winters are pretty common in a Nina or nina-like state, but of course drought is another thing.

Never heard of Noll other than on here, but it's clear by his posts that he is the warm version of a JB type. Just posts ANYTHING hypothetical that implies warmth. Right now it's abnormally warm in Canada and it's very likely Canada will have abnormal cold in winter. Considering in this thread we have dissected not just ENSO but even what enso state the atmosphere is behaving like, it's really out there to equate a September pattern to winter. Especially when northern locations common theme in a nino is chilly Fall, mild winter...and in a Nina is mild Fall, colder winter.