michsnowfreak

This. Times 1000%. You can literally look up tweets of anyone knowing their biases and just see a bunch of graphs/pics to support their "forecast". And this absolutely goes for both sides.

The 1970s were in a league of their own for cold. If we were dealt the same pattern as we had in the late 70s, it would be way colder than average. Also remember, early to mid 20th century winters were much warmer than 1960s-70s ones. Below are the decades average winter temps at Detroit. The 1970s stick out like a sore, cold thumb. 1870s – 25.2 1880s – 27.6 1890s – 26.5 1900s – 24.9 1910s – 25.5 1920s – 25.8 1930s – 28.3 1940s – 27.0 1950s – 28.6 1960s – 26.2 1970s – 24.8 1980s – 25.9 1990s – 29.2 2000s – 27.7 2010s – 28.2 1874-2021 – 27.0

Admittedly, I was thinking more in terms of here in Michigan, plus I don't really know what goes into "regional" temperature averages as opposed to just individual station averages. But I cannot believe 13-14 was not a cold winter in the northeast. it was literally the most severe winter on record in Detroit and other nearby places. And Feb 2015 was the coldest month on record in some upper midwest cities.

Which part was denial? The part where I pointed out that cold/snowy November's recently have been seen as a bad omen for winter, or the part where I scoffed at the idea that palms will naturally grow in winter climates that currently average about 30°+ too cold for this?

14-15, 13-14, 10-11, 08-09 etc would certainly not need warmer normals to look cold.

Lmao. The Great Lakes will never be able to support palms naturally. Jokes aside though, I said it in passing last month and without fail it's true every year. November is the month where regardless of the weather, Winter weenies fear. We've had quite a few colder & snowier than average November's recently, and the take is always that it's bad luck for the winter. But then, if you have a mild November, that's also bad luck.

Feb 6, 2008 was ice here, ending as 2.6" snow. The scenery of ice coated trees topped with a fresh blanket of snow was beautiful, but naturally I was jealous of the deep heavy snow just to my north. What a winter that was. This was the second storm that really missed my area with good snow totals (the other one being January 1) and I still ended up with 78.2".

I was going to mention 1874-75 in my original post but didnt. So it's weird. Snowfall records technically date to the beginning of the climate record, which is November 1, 1870. (Happy 153rd birthday of weather records, Detroit ). However, due to some inconsistencies, including some missing data as well as some erroneous snow listed, even though MOST of the 1870-79 record is complete, since there are multiple missing data & errors scattered throughout the 1870s, DTX elects to consider snowfall officially as starting in 1880. It's kind of annoying since so much of the data is there and seems reliable, especially when you compare it to newspapers of the time, but have to stay consistent for records purposes so I quote snow data as starting in 1880.

A lot of it is weather superstition, of which we have plenty of lol. It doesnt help that we had a stretch of snowy, cold Novembers followed by mild Decembers the past decade. But in reality, it is no predicator of what winter will bring. Detroit Halloween-Winter Snowfall: 2023: 0.2" - Winter 2023-24: ? 2019: T - Winter 2019-20: 43.7" (mild) 2017: T - Winter 2017-18: 61.0" (avg/slightly cold) 2014: T - Winter 2014-15: 47.5" (cold) 1993: 0.1" - Winter 1993-94: 45.8" (cold) 1955: T - Winter 1955-56: 45.2" (avg/slightly cold) 1917: T - Winter 1917-18: 38.4" (cold)

26° and a dusting of snow opens November. Plenty of leaves yet to rake. But nevertheless I turned on Christmas music!

Had light snow falling during most of trick or treating hours, and it was fun passing out candy in a winter coat with flakes floating down. But at the time heavy snow squalls were splitting me from Flint to Toledo. I thought, did I REALLY just go from Fall-mode to "jealous bc a nearby city got more snow" mode in like 2 days, in October? But later in the evening a nice beautiful burst of snow coated the ground in white...winter is coming fast! Snow totals for Oct 31 were: DTW 0.2", FNT 1.1", MBS 0.5", TOL 0.7", all daily records for Oct 31. The high/low of 41°/27° (mean temp 34°) made it the 5th coldest Halloween on record at Detroit, but coldest since 1923. The real interesting stat tho, since snow records began in 1880, this was only the 7th Halloween to see snow, but 4 of the 7 years have been the last decade (1917, 1955, 1993, 2014, 2017, 2019, 2023)! With the last flakes of last season May 2nd and the first flakes Oct 31, in 2023 (barring something unprecedented in Nov-Dec), only 4 calendar months (JJAS) will have had no snow.

Everything's relative. A terrible winter in Detroit is colder/snowier than a great winter in Albuquerque. Most people do tend to have biases but I'll still read any outlook with reasoning over NOAAs cookie cutter nino climo "forecast" maps with zero explanation. You are correct about the above mentioned winters being good. 2013-14 was the most severe winter on record here, & those other winters were all good as well. There have also been some impressive record cold snaps even in winters where the overall departure ends up average to somewhat above average. No winter is without ups and downs and surprises (good and bad).

The colors are just stunning and still peak but the leaves will be raining down quickly I'd imagine.

Agree 100%.

I kind of agree that its dumb to change the warnings, but i also think warnings are VERY prone to conditions moreso than inches. A 3-4" snowfall can absolutely be more treacherous than a 7" snowfall depending on conditions. But again, this is for the public only, as I never care what warnings/advisories are or are not in place, its all about the actual snow for me. Speaking of snow, the beginning of November begins the annual "lose-lose" pre-winter jitters for winter lovers. If its mild & sunny with little in the way of cold/snow, we hear "where is winter? so much for snow. Feels like mid-Fall. etc". If it is cold with snow we here "you dont want to see snow in Nov. Bad sign for winter. Dont waste this pattern now. etc".

Thick frost today. 33 at DTW but 25 in Ann Arbor, 27 White Lake. So yesterday we in southeast michigan found out the sky actually IS blue, and it was the perfect crisp day for a walk in the park. Colors are peak and absolutely stunning.

The same phenomenon is seen in MI. Most falls Detroit will peak before Traverse City. And likewise, it's a later bloom in spring along the lakeshore.

Agree. It's so dumb. And warnings should not be based solely on inches.

The gray continues here but trees are nearing peak. Took these yesterday

I mean again. It did suck for us hardy WINTER lovers because it was a very mild winter, but snowfall managed to be around average.

Wow props to you. Of course I had Detroit but couldn't find Ft Meyers lol.

It's a hard comparison. It definitely will rain/snow on more days in Detroit, but total amounts are probably relatively close on average.

Once we hit November I love overcast skies. It can be gray every day from November through the entire winter for all I care. But in October when we have a color show to enjoy...I do NOT care for it!

Definitely the cloudiest October I can remember. High temps have been colder than average for 11 straight days and counting but no frost/freeze yet (should change early next week).

Yes. It got down to 7° on Nov 13, 2019 which is the earliest single digits on record for Detroit. The bitter cold and deep snowcover before hitting mid November was surreal and clearly not a sign of the winter that was on the way (although we did get some other good snows, it was mild).